Article: The Red Sox Are Poised To Overcome Brutal Second Half Schedule

[Alex Mayes]

After the Red Sox came screaming into the All-Star break on a ten-game winning streak, reality set in that the team would begin the second half of the season against some of the stiffest competition they’ve faced all year. They open the second half against the NL Central-leading Cubs, travel to face the NL East-leading Phillies, then get the NL West-leading Dodgers to kick off their first second half homestand. The Red Sox typically play up to the competition in front of them and historically play the Cubs to a .500 tune, a 14-14 record, and completely dominate the Phillies (52-35 all-time record). The Dodgers have a winning record against the Sox, 14-10.

Second Half Schedule

That doesn’t quite tell the whole story, though. According to FanGraphs, the Boston Red Sox have the most difficult schedule moving forward. After the first three series to start the second half, the Red Sox play the Twins (47-49 on the season), the Astros (56-40), and then they get a bit of a break against an underperforming Royals team, with a record of 47-50. The schedule lightens up a bit towards the end of August and they see the lowly Athletics twice through September, so there’s a few series left on the schedule where we should see the same team that dominated both the Nationals and Rockies in back-to-back series sweeps. The second half is loaded with talented teams though, so if the Red Sox hope to make a run at the World Series, as some national pundits have stated recently, they are going to have to make sure their offense continues to click while their pitching staff stays healthy at the same time. 

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance…

According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox are still projected to come in third in the division. They are projected to finish the season with 84.8 wins, behind the Blue Jays’ 88.2 and the Yankees’ 89.3. FanGraphs gives them a 11.1% chance to win the division with just a 5.2% chance to clinch a first-round bye. The team is moved up to second in the division to clinch a Wild Card spot though, coming in at 44.8%, just behind the Blue Jays at 46%. Should they make the World Series, FanGraphs currently gives them a 2.8% chance to win the whole thing. Those are incredibly long odds, but anything is possible if you make it to October.

The Division IS Within Reach

The Red Sox currently have a 20-13 record against the AL East in 2025; currently, they are 4-3 against the Orioles, 5-1 against the Yankees, 3-7 against the Blue Jays, and 8-2 against the Rays. The O’s are all but eliminated, and the Rays may completely slip out of playoff contention, but if we focus on the Yankees and Blue Jays, the Red Sox are playing .500 ball. They’ve embarrassed the Yankees in two series and have looked completely listless against the Jays. We know that the team will likely see both of these teams come October, and that could present a couple of issues down the road, but both the Yankees and Blue Jays are beatable teams, even if Boston's record against the Jays doesn’t show that so far. The Jays have always played the Red Sox incredibly well, so it’s not shocking to see that record, but it also coincides with the pitching woes of June. A well-rested and healthy starting rotation and bullpen can easily turn the tide against the (current) best team in the AL East. 

If things hold as they were when the All-Star break began, the Red Sox will see the Seattle Mariners in the Wild Card round. The Rays, Rangers, Angels, and Twins are all currently sniffing around the third Wild Card spot held by the Mariners, so things could change fairly quickly as the second half gets underway. If the Sox keep winning, the first Wild Card spot is easily up for grabs — the team currently sits just one game behind the Yankees for it — and if they are in contention for that spot, then there’s reason to believe they could make a run for the AL East title still. That’s something I didn’t think I’d be saying just a few weeks ago, but this team has shown more heart and grit in the past two and a half weeks than they have all year. The front office seems committed to improving the team, not only for the future, but for this season too as the trade deadline approaches. If the team is willing to go all-in, then fans should be ready to jump aboard the bandwagon with them. 

View full article

[TedYazPapiMookie]

People don't learn from history.  Over the last several years since the new balanced schedule has been adopted this team has struggled terribly in August and September.  Add the schedule's level of difficulty and no additional talent on the horizon and this team is heading toward a very ugly second half. 

Breslow needs to add talent if possible and if he can upgrade his manager that would help the most.  Otherwise, we are looking at a near .500 team yet again.  The good news is that with a Breslow manager next year not Cora, this team could win the Division with growth of the big 3 prospects, Duran, Rafaela, Bregman, Story and Narvaez.  Yoshida needs to finally stay healthy and be a quality DH to round out the starters/regulars.

This game today showed the weakness of the team.  The Manager.  You have a hot Duran batting leadoff but an even hotter Rafaela bats 8th rather than being rewarded for proving Cora wrong for dropping him in the order after the 2023 season.  You have the chance to top end load the batting order with Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Bregman, Mayer, Story, Abreu, Narvaez and Toro.  Instead, Cora drops one of his hottest hitters so he can bring a cold hitter (Abreu) higher in the order.  What an idiot.  The mistakes never stop coming.  Duran goes 1 for 2, Rafaela 1 for 4 (robbed of a double by umpire), Anthony 1 for 3, Bregman 1 for 4, Mayer 2 for 4, Story hitless, Abreu hitless, Narvaez hitless and Toro 1 for 4.  

Thanks to the bad batting order runs were missed out on and the team lost 4 to 1.  Note the clustering of the hot hitters at the top of the order that has been suggested.  ANY good manager could figure that out.  That's why Cora didn't, yet again.  Today's loss is on Cora for not setting the right batting order.

This game along with Crochet's on Sunday were both winnable games.  Now we need to hope the team can score runs on Sunday for Crochet.  Cora costs the team at least one game a series against good teams.

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

People don't learn from history.  Over the last several years since the new balanced schedule has been adopted this team has struggled terribly in August and September.  Add the schedule's level of difficulty and no additional talent on the horizon and this team is heading toward a very ugly second half. 

Breslow needs to add talent if possible and if he can upgrade his manager that would help the most.  Otherwise, we are looking at a near .500 team yet again.  The good news is that with a Breslow manager next year not Cora, this team could win the Division with growth of the big 3 prospects, Duran, Rafaela, Bregman, Story and Narvaez.  Yoshida needs to finally stay healthy and be a quality DH to round out the starters/regulars.

This game today showed the weakness of the team.  The Manager.  You have a hot Duran batting leadoff but an even hotter Rafaela bats 8th rather than being rewarded for proving Cora wrong for dropping him in the order after the 2023 season.  You have the chance to top end load the batting order with Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Bregman, Mayer, Story, Abreu, Narvaez and Toro.  Instead, Cora drops one of his hottest hitters so he can bring a cold hitter (Abreu) higher in the order.  What an idiot.  The mistakes never stop coming.  Duran goes 1 for 2, Rafaela 1 for 4 (robbed of a double by umpire), Anthony 1 for 3, Bregman 1 for 4, Mayer 2 for 4, Story hitless, Abreu hitless, Narvaez hitless and Toro 1 for 4.  

Thanks to the bad batting order runs were missed out on and the team lost 4 to 1.  Note the clustering of the hot hitters at the top of the order that has been suggested.  ANY good manager could figure that out.  That's why Cora didn't, yet again.  Today's loss is on Cora for not setting the right batting order.

This game along with Crochet's on Sunday were both winnable games.  Now we need to hope the team can score runs on Sunday for Crochet.  Cora costs the team at least one game a series against good teams.

One of the most vitriolic posts this season and totally without merit.  I myself complained about Narvaez being too high (4th) in the order and that Story and/or Rafaela should have been higher, but I did so in the context that I think Cora's lineups have been really good this year.  In fact, one of the things I kind of like lately is not overloading the lineup with lefty bats against righty starters.  Now it's more liked 5 lefty bats, including Toro's S bat, and 4 righty bats.  

The fact is that the Cubs had superb pitching today, which is why the 3 run dinger in the 1st proved to be the game winning hit.  

Rafaela has in fact flourished near or at the bottom of the order.   Maybe he's comfortable there.  He leads the Sox in runs scored with 58 and is 4th in rbi's with 48.  Duran leads off but is 3d in rbi's with 50 and 2d in runs scored with 53. 

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can't believe Cora coached Giolito into walking the first two batters and then throwing a meatball to the Cubs' home run leader who leads the NL in RBIs!

And why didn't Cora run out on the field and shove Toro back to second base when the sap stumbled twice without tagging up on Bregman's liner?

Boston's playing at Wrigley Field, and Cora can't write out a batting order with more HR hitters? There's gotta be someone with power in the dugout or in the minors somewhere? Let's go!

[harmony]

At the All Star break the Red Sox were one game up on the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race (but even in the loss column);

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-16&dateDelta=

The daunting post-break schedule had the Sox facing the three NL division leaders in the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Mariners faced a tough post-break schedule with the AL West-leading Houston Astros and the Milwaukee Brewers, who have now tied the Cubs for the NL Central lead.

The Red Sox and the Mariners are in a virtual tie for the fifth and sixth Wild Card slots after the Sox lost two of three to the Cubs and the Mariners won two of three against the Astros.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-20&dateDelta=

The remainder of the season should be interesting.

 

[Kimmi]

18 hours ago, harmony said:

At the All Star break the Red Sox were one game up on the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race (but even in the loss column);

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-16&dateDelta=

The daunting post-break schedule had the Sox facing the three NL division leaders in the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Mariners faced a tough post-break schedule with the AL West-leading Houston Astros and the Milwaukee Brewers, who have now tied the Cubs for the NL Central lead.

The Red Sox and the Mariners are in a virtual tie for the fifth and sixth Wild Card slots after the Sox lost two of three to the Cubs and the Mariners won two of three against the Astros.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-20&dateDelta=

The remainder of the season should be interesting.

 

The Brewers have been playing really good baseball.  That being the case, they will probably get swept by the Mariners, mostly because the Mariners like to annoy me.  LOL

[Kimmi]

Last night's game was about as close to a must-win game as there can be at this point of the season, IMO.  The All-Star break has not been kind to us.  The last thing we needed was to get swept coming out of the break.  I feel pretty good about winning 1 of 3 from a very good Cubs team, which is an odd thing to say.

The road is not getting any easier.