Red Sox Video
After the Red Sox came screaming into the All-Star break on a ten-game winning streak, reality set in that the team would begin the second half of the season against some of the stiffest competition they’ve faced all year. They open the second half against the NL Central-leading Cubs, travel to face the NL East-leading Phillies, then get the NL West-leading Dodgers to kick off their first second half homestand. The Red Sox typically play up to the competition in front of them and historically play the Cubs to a .500 tune, a 14-14 record, and completely dominate the Phillies (52-35 all-time record). The Dodgers have a winning record against the Sox, 14-10.
Second Half Schedule
That doesn’t quite tell the whole story, though. According to FanGraphs, the Boston Red Sox have the most difficult schedule moving forward. After the first three series to start the second half, the Red Sox play the Twins (47-49 on the season), the Astros (56-40), and then they get a bit of a break against an underperforming Royals team, with a record of 47-50. The schedule lightens up a bit towards the end of August and they see the lowly Athletics twice through September, so there’s a few series left on the schedule where we should see the same team that dominated both the Nationals and Rockies in back-to-back series sweeps. The second half is loaded with talented teams though, so if the Red Sox hope to make a run at the World Series, as some national pundits have stated recently, they are going to have to make sure their offense continues to click while their pitching staff stays healthy at the same time.
So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance…
According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox are still projected to come in third in the division. They are projected to finish the season with 84.8 wins, behind the Blue Jays’ 88.2 and the Yankees’ 89.3. FanGraphs gives them a 11.1% chance to win the division with just a 5.2% chance to clinch a first-round bye. The team is moved up to second in the division to clinch a Wild Card spot though, coming in at 44.8%, just behind the Blue Jays at 46%. Should they make the World Series, FanGraphs currently gives them a 2.8% chance to win the whole thing. Those are incredibly long odds, but anything is possible if you make it to October.
The Division IS Within Reach
The Red Sox currently have a 20-13 record against the AL East in 2025; currently, they are 4-3 against the Orioles, 5-1 against the Yankees, 3-7 against the Blue Jays, and 8-2 against the Rays. The O’s are all but eliminated, and the Rays may completely slip out of playoff contention, but if we focus on the Yankees and Blue Jays, the Red Sox are playing .500 ball. They’ve embarrassed the Yankees in two series and have looked completely listless against the Jays. We know that the team will likely see both of these teams come October, and that could present a couple of issues down the road, but both the Yankees and Blue Jays are beatable teams, even if Boston's record against the Jays doesn’t show that so far. The Jays have always played the Red Sox incredibly well, so it’s not shocking to see that record, but it also coincides with the pitching woes of June. A well-rested and healthy starting rotation and bullpen can easily turn the tide against the (current) best team in the AL East.
If things hold as they were when the All-Star break began, the Red Sox will see the Seattle Mariners in the Wild Card round. The Rays, Rangers, Angels, and Twins are all currently sniffing around the third Wild Card spot held by the Mariners, so things could change fairly quickly as the second half gets underway. If the Sox keep winning, the first Wild Card spot is easily up for grabs — the team currently sits just one game behind the Yankees for it — and if they are in contention for that spot, then there’s reason to believe they could make a run for the AL East title still. That’s something I didn’t think I’d be saying just a few weeks ago, but this team has shown more heart and grit in the past two and a half weeks than they have all year. The front office seems committed to improving the team, not only for the future, but for this season too as the trade deadline approaches. If the team is willing to go all-in, then fans should be ready to jump aboard the bandwagon with them.
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