Article: 3 Early-Season Surprises For the 2025 Boston Red Sox

[Nick John]

After a month’s worth of games, the Boston Red Sox have had a rollercoaster of a season. What have been the three biggest surprises for the team so far?

The Boston Red Sox have been a streaky team to open the 2025 season, currently sitting at 16 wins and 14 losses as they get ready to begin the final series of April against the Toronto Blue Jays. Below are what I feel could be three of the biggest surprises of April. Have your own picks? Tell us about them in the comments below!

1) The Red Sox Really Lost Three Times to the White Sox

Everyone always says that baseball games aren’t won on paper and that you need to win the game on the field. That couldn’t have been truer when it came to how the Red Sox played Chicago this season, as they lost three times to arguably the worst team in all of baseball. The lowly White Sox only had two wins when the Red Sox traveled to the south side of Chicago for a three-game series in early April, but you wouldn’t have thought that with how they played.

In the opening game, the White Sox destroyed the Red Sox, winning 11-1 as they took advantage of many mistakes. The pain continued in the second game as the White Sox stormed back to tie the game 2-2 in the bottom of the sixth inning thanks to a two-run home run by Luis Robert Jr. off of Zack Kelly. They would go on to win on a walk-off against Aroldis Chapman, making many Red Sox fans question what they just watched. Fortunately, the Red Sox won the next three games these two teams played against each other before another heartbreak occurred.

Playing on Easter Sunday, the Red Sox were leading for much of the game as Tanner Houck shook off a rough first inning to pitch six decent innings. The wheels fell off for the Red Sox once more in the seventh as they went to the bullpen where Zack Kelly could not get a single out while allowing three runs to score to make it a 5-4 game with the White Sox winning. The deficit would only increase as the White Sox added two more runs in the eighth on a two-run shot off of Liam Hendriks, and then another a run in the ninth against Brennan Bernardino. The White Sox would hold on to win 8-4 in a game that the Red Sox were dominating until the last third of the game.

To make things worse, the White Sox currently have seven wins on the season. Nearly half of their total wins have come against the Red Sox, and at the conclusion of their last series played against each other, the majority of Chicago’s wins had come against the Red Sox. To say that it’s a surprise the Red Sox lost three games to a team like Chicago is an understatement.

2) Kristian Campbell Is Really, Really Good

Throughout the offseason and during spring training, it was no surprise that the Red Sox really liked Kristian Campbell. The young infielder had played across three different levels of the minor league system in 2024 while having a breakout season that resulted in him becoming a top prospect on many industry lists. After breaking camp with the team as their starting second baseman and receiving an extension with them shortly after the season began, many had a feeling he was going to be a special player. No one, however, expected him to be this good this soon.

Through his first 27 games of his career, Campbell is hitting .305/.412/.474 to go along with three home runs, seven doubles and 10 RBIs. To put that into perspective with other rookies who have played at least 20 games, only three have a better batting average than him, and none have a better on-base percentage. He’s tied for the lead in doubles and is fifth in RBIs and third in home runs, not to mention that he leads all rookies in walks with 18. Campbell burst onto the scene like few others, reaching base in his first 17 games, the second-longest in Red Sox history behind only George Scott’s 26-game streak in 1966.

Campbell has been one of the most consistent hitters in an otherwise streaky lineup through the first month of the season and will be looked upon to help carry the offense the rest of the season.

3) The Back-End of the Bullpen Is Better Than We Thought

Throughout the offseason and into spring training a major concern for Red Sox fans was the bullpen and who would replace Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin in the late innings. While Jansen had his ups and downs in Boston, he was still an All-Star closer who brought stability to the ninth inning. Martin, on the other hand, was just one of the best relief pitchers in baseball during his two seasons in Boston, even earning Cy Young votes in 2023. Both pitchers left after the 2024 season, the Red Sox replacing them with Aroldis Chapman and the expected returns of Liam Hendricks and Garrett Whitlock. Justin Slaten was also to be among the mix for opportunities at the end of games.

It would have been easy to worry about that group as Chapman is pitching in his age-37 season for Boston, Hendriks had last pitched in the majors in 2023, Whitlock had health concerns, and Slaten (though he had a great rookie season) was a relatively unknown and could be subject to a sophomore slump.

Instead, three out of those four managed to defy expectations and create a dominant bullpen. While Hendricks opened the year on the Injured List, Chapman was named the closer, though it was stated he wouldn’t pitch strictly in the ninth but rather when it was most important. So far through 12 games, he’s managed to turn back the clock and look like his vintage self, as he’s struck out 16 batters through 10 1/3 innings while converting four saves.

His fastball is just as effective as it usually is, averaging just around 99 mph while his sinker is even faster, averaging 100.6 mph. Thanks in part to those two pitches paired with his slider, Chapman has been able to get opposing batters to chase at a 38.3% rate while also getting whiffs at a 41.8% rate. Chapman is still prone to walk batters as he’s walked four so far, but he’s limited the damage thanks to his strikeouts.

After three seasons that saw discussion revolve around Whitlock being a starter and three seasons that saw him get injured, the plan was to use Whitlock strictly out of the bullpen for 2025 just like his rookie season. The plan has worked out so far, as the right-hander looks much like his old self through his first 10 appearances. Having thrown 15 2/3 innings, Whitlock has struck out 19 batters while only allowing three runs on 11 hits and five walks.

Whitlock’s dominance out of the bullpen is very similar to Chapman’s, as he’s been able to cause batters to not only chase his pitches out of the zone but to also generate a high amount of whiffs. So far through the first month of the campaign, Whitlock is getting batters to chase at a 33.6% rate and whiff on 35.8% of his pitches. Along with that, he’s been able to strike out batters at a high rate of 30.2% and limit the damage when he is hit.

Despite allowing 11 hits, Whitlock’s average exit velocity isn’t anything troubling, as batters are only hitting the ball off him at about 87.5 mph on average.

Early in the season, Whitlock has mostly been relying on a combination of his sinker, slider, and changeup as the three pitches make up 90% of his pitches, while his sweeper makes up the last 10%. Of those four pitches, his sinker is the only pain point, as batters are hitting .300 off of it. In comparison, his sweeper has not been hit once while his slider is being hit at a .105 average.

Slaten is the final member of the three-headed monster that is the back-end of the Red Sox bullpen. Coming off of a great rookie season, Slaten has been even better despite what the numbers may look like. Appearing in 11 games, he’s thrown 10 innings and allowed four runs on four hits and two walks while striking out nine. He’s also managed to save three games. While his ERA is currently 3.60, that is entirely due to a single bad outing against Baltimore where he allowed all four of his earned runs on the season. Since that game, he’s allowed only a single hit and a single walk while striking out eight over eight innings.

Slaten has been one of the best relievers in the game in April, getting batters to chase at a 36.7% rate and getting whiffs at a 32.4% rate. While his strikeouts are down compared to last season, he’s walking batters at an amazingly small rate of 5.6% and limiting hard contact thanks in part to not allowing batters to barrel up his pitches

The season is still in its early stages, but as the calendar flips to May, the hope is that the Red Sox will continue to get hot and surprise us in positive ways. There’s still five full months left in the season, so we're sure to be surprised a lot more before the playoffs begin.

View full article

[mvp 78]

Maybe the White Sox thing is the bigger surprise here, but even so the 2024 Sox got manhandled by the White Sox. 

If I picked my 3 surprises it would be:

1. How far Houck fell off. I could have seen him dropping to a mid rotation guy, but maybe not losing a rotation spot. It's been really ugly.

2. Devers leading the league in K's AND BB's. Really wild ride for Mr Toad here. 

3. Nine throwing errors from Breggie/Story/Campbell/Romy already. Maybe 1B defense is underrated in today's MLB? 

[Nick]

It appears we have 3 solid starters right now in Crochet, Buehler and Bello.

Houck is trending similar to Pivetta three years ago when he ended up in the bullpen. 

Let's just hope Giolito doesn't take two months to get it right. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

It appears we have 3 solid starters right now in Crochet, Buehler and Bello.

Houck is trending similar to Pivetta three years ago who ended up in the bullpen. 

Let's just hope Giolito doesn't take two months to get it right. 

It took Buehler 5 months to get right last season before he pitched well in the playoffs. I don't think it'll be pretty for Gio this year. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It took Buehler 5 months to get right last season before he pitched well in the playoffs. I don't think it'll be pretty for Gio this year. 

Too bad Fitts is not ready.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Too bad Fitts is not ready.

Dobbins has looked strong in his MLB outings. In his AAA outings? Not as much. However, in AAA outings where he's been a starter and NOT a piggy back, he's looked good. Maybe he's just not a good relief option? 

[mvp 78]

And just a reminder that it is still EARLY.

Last year at this time, Corbin Caroll had 0.0 fWAR. He ended with 4.0. Bregman had 0.0 fWAR and ended with 4.2. Vlad had 0.0 and ended with 5.4. 

On 4/30/24, Houck and Crawford were tied in leading the league in fWAR for pitchers at 1.5. Houck was outpitching Skubal at that point. BOS was 2nd in pitching fWAR and looked like it could do no wrong. Ceddanne was a negative WAR guy! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And just a reminder that it is still EARLY.

Last year at this time, Corbin Caroll had 0.0 fWAR. He ended with 4.0. Bregman had 0.0 fWAR and ended with 4.2. Vlad had 0.0 and ended with 5.4. 

On 4/30/24, Houck and Crawford were tied in leading the league in fWAR for pitchers at 1.5. Houck was outpitching Skubal at that point. BOS was 2nd in pitching fWAR and looked like it could do no wrong. Ceddanne was a negative WAR guy! 

Great points. So many people seem to think what players do in one month sets who they are for the full season. No matter how many times the results shift wildly for some players, the same is believed the next season.

I get the concern over Devers, since the end of last year was bad, but the guy was clearly playing hurt.

[moonslav59]

To me, one big surprise- not the biggest- is the performance by our 3 SP'ers that were slotted around 8th to 12th on the winter rotation depth chart, especially when compared with the combined numbers of the only top 5 depth chart SP'ers who have seen action, this season:

4.18 ERA in 21 GS by Crochet, Houck, Buehler & Bello (118.1 IP- 55 ER)

3.58 ERA in 10 GS by Dobbins, Fitts & Newcomb (50.1 IP- 20 ER)

 

[Nick John]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Dobbins has looked strong in his MLB outings. In his AAA outings? Not as much. However, in AAA outings where he's been a starter and NOT a piggy back, he's looked good. Maybe he's just not a good relief option? 

From what I've heard, Dobbins has been told to work on getting another out pitch while in AAA so that he has three that could be played as at least average in the majors. A lot of the "issues" in AAA could be from focusing on the pitch development over trying to make quality outings.