Article: With Brayan Bello Behind, the Red Sox Need a Fifth Starter

[Davy Andrews]

With Brayan Bello's shoulder soreness making it unlikely that he's ready to start the season, Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts are battling it out for the fifth starter spot.

Coming into spring training, Brayan Bello was one of the biggest question marks for the Red Sox. The 25-year-old starter is under contract through 2029, but he’s yet to have the breakout season the team has hoped for, running an ERA of at least 4.24 in each of his first three big-league seasons. During spring training, a new, even more unwelcome kind of uncertainty has enveloped Bello: injury uncertainty. Bello has been dealing with shoulder soreness during camp, although the Red Sox made it clear that they expected him to be ready for Opening Day, they sound less sanguine with each passing day, and they wisely don’t want to push the young player too hard right now. Bello threw a controlled bullpen on Friday, but he has not yet been able to throw at 100%, much less to appear in an actual spring training game. With Kutter Crawford out and Bello’s readiness for Opening Day looking less and less likely, let’s consider who might take the final spot in the starting rotation to open the season.

“I definitely want that job,” Quinn Priester told reporters last week. Priester, Pittsburgh’s first-round pick in the 2019 draft, joined the Red Sox in a deadline trade. He has made 15 big-league starts and 21 total appearances. So far, he has made three spring training starts, running a 2.70 ERA (along with a ghastly 7.83 FIP) in 6 2/3 innings. The 24-year-old right-hander throws a full starter’s arsenal: sinker, four-seamer, cutter, slider, curve, and changeup. Priester leads with the sinker and threw the cutter just 1% of the time in 2024. However, during the two spring training starts that took place in Statcast-enabled stadiums, he threw the cutter a quarter of the time, making it his second-most used pitch. 

When Priester was traded to the Red Sox, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs diagnosed his problem simply:

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Priester pitched very well in the minors but has run into unresolved trouble in his two big league seasons (6.46 ERA, 94 career innings) because his fastball doesn’t play. He’s lost velocity compared to his prospect peak, when he was sitting 94-97 mph, but his sinking fastball also performs below its raw velocity due to its ineffective movement and hittable angle. His heater has surrendered a .284/.351/.493 line this year, and while he has a couple of other pitches (a slider/cutter and a changeup), his curveball remains the lone exceptional one. However, because it is such a big-arcing curveball that is fairly easy to identify out of his hand, Priester has been forced to de-emphasize it.

The Red Sox have famously encouraged their pitchers to deemphasize fastballs in recent years, so while it’s not surprising that Priester is adjusting his pitch mix, it is surprising that he’s still throwing the sinker just as often as he did last season. That said, he’s run impressive groundball rates everywhere he’s gone, and thus far, his sinker has averaged 8.3 inches of sink during spring training, well over the 5.3 it averaged during 2024. Likewise, after averaging 93.1 mph in 2024, his sinker has averaged 94.7 during spring training. We’ll have to wait and see, but those improvements could be enough to transform the pitch into a quality big-league offering. “Priester is another guy that, if we talk about catching my eye, (he’s) impressive,” Alex Cora said a few weeks ago. “He put work in in the offseason. He’s a lot stronger, he’s got good stuff, you saw what he did the last day. He looks really good.”

Priester may be the favorite for the job, but Richard Fitts is doing everything he can to challenge him. Fitts made his big-league debut in September and immediately reeled off an impressive scoreless innings streak. He then showed up at camp a stronger and more complete pitcher. Last week, I wrote up the many ways that Fitts looked improved, so I’ll just offer a summary here, but even the summary isn’t exactly short. First and foremost, he worked on his shoulder strength in order to increase his velocity. After his fastball averaged 94.5 mph in 2024, it’s now sitting closer to 98 and touching 99. He’s added a sinker and a curveball, and he modified both his changeup and slider. If you’re keeping score at home, he throws six pitches, and four of them are either brand new or new versions of themselves. “My guy on MLB The Show is going to be pretty crazy,” he joked.

Coming into his start against the Braves on Sunday, Fitts had thrown four scoreless spring training innings, allowing four hits and striking out five. However, things didn’t go that well against Atlanta. Fitts only gave up one run, but he couldn’t get out of the third inning, allowing two walks and three hits over 2 1/3 innings. However, he did notch four swinging strikeouts, all of them (to my eyes) all of them on different pitches: cutter, four-seamer, slider, and splitter. So while the results left much to be desired, Fitts did further showcase his transformation into a pitcher who can rack up strikeouts thanks to swing-and-miss stuff.

Fitts definitely doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of Preister. The Yankees selected him 183rd overall in 2021 out of Auburn. It’s possible that the biggest advantage Fitts has is his minor league options. He still has three, while Priester has just one remaining. The Red Sox will need to be extremely judicious with Priester’s promotions and demotions, so if he starts the season as the fifth starter, if and when Bello (or Crawford, or Patrick Sandoval) comes back to reclaim the job, he might be more likely to end up in the bullpen than back in Worcester. Cooper Criswell and Hunter Dobbins also represent outside chances at the job, but as of now, it seems like it’s between Priester and Fitts. One thing is certain: trying to decide between a surfeit of quality arms is a good problem to have.

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[mvp 78]

Fitts came into camp with stuff that completely popped. He should get the job. He did tremendous work this offseason. Priester is looking a little better than last year, but he seems behind Fitts now that Fitts has opened a lot of eyes. 

[moonslav59]

There is still enough time in ST'ing for Priester or Criswell to pass Fitts, but I agree, for now, Fitts should be the guy.

soxprospects.com agrees...

https://www.soxprospects.com/2025.htm

[Hugh2]

I think the Sox prefer Criswell in the swingman, long relief role.  The 5th spot is Fitts for the taking right now. 

[Hugh2]

ADD.  I think it's probably too early to anoint Fitts the 5th starter.  When these guys get stretched out things could look different.  I think Priester still has a good shot at at being the best option. 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think the Sox prefer Criswell in the swingman, long relief role.  The 5th spot is Fitts for the taking right now. 

Not sure he's even in the discussion for the 5th spot right now. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

ADD.  I think it's probably too early to anoint Fitts the 5th starter.  When these guys get stretched out things could look different.  I think Priester still has a good shot at at being the best option. 

Priester: 2HR, 8 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 6.2 IP

Fitts: 0HR, 6 H, 4 BB, 9 K, 6.1 IP

Right now, Fitts is in the driver's seat in stuff and on the field results. There is a good chance they may need both of them right out of the gate. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Priester: 2HR, 8 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 6.2 IP

Fitts: 0HR, 6 H, 4 BB, 9 K, 6.1 IP

Right now, Fitts is in the driver's seat in stuff and on the field results. There is a good chance they may need both of them right out of the gate. 

I agree, with an emphasis on "right now." There is plenty of time for things to change. We may end up needing both.