Article: How Do The Red Sox Stack Up Against Their AL East Competition In 2025?

[Matt Corr]

The American League East is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball yet again. With significant roster moves and massive departures, all five teams face unique challenges heading into the new season. Here's a breakdown of the Red Sox's competition for a division title.

Baltimore Orioles

Rotation: The Orioles suffered a significant loss with the departure of ace Corbin Burnes, who signed a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, they bolstered their rotation by signing Tomoyuki Sugano, a 35-year-old veteran who spent his 12-year career with the Yomiuri Giants, and veteran Charlie Morton to a one-year contract worth $15 million. These additions should provide a stable boost at the back end of the rotation. The team is also hopeful for Kyle Bradish's recovery from Tommy John surgery, which could significantly impact their pitching staff if he returns to form.

Bullpen: The return of Félix Bautista is a considerable boost, as he missed the 2024 season after having Tommy John surgery. and there are doubts that he will be ready for Opening Day. Additionally, Baltimore signed veteran Andrew Kittredge to a one-year contract worth $9 million with a team option in 2026 for $9 million. He will be there to reinforce their late-game options.

Position Players: The Orioles brought in an old friend of the program, Tyler O'Neill, who signed a 3-year deal worth $49.5 million with an opt-out after the 2025 season. His bat is needed after the loss of Anthony Santander. O'Neill will love the change at Camden Yards after Mike Elias announced that the left field wall will be returned after the change was made in 2022. Additionally, Gary Sánchez joins the roster as the new backup catcher, replacing James McCann.

The front office remains confident in its core, particularly rising stars who made strides in 2024. The team expects continued growth from its young hitters, with internal projections showing an increase in power numbers and on-base percentage across the board.

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New York Yankees

Rotation: The Yankees made a significant splash by signing Max Fried to an 8-year, $218 million deal, the largest contract for a left-handed pitcher and the fourth largest for any pitcher. Fried makes a formidable trio alongside Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. Nestor Cortes was traded to Milwaukee to clear room for Fried.

If the rotation stays healthy, the pitching staff is expected to be among the best in the league (except when Cole has to face Devers).

Bullpen: Devin Williams was acquired in the Cortes trade and is expected to take over as the team's closer, replacing Clay Holmes, who has to drive a little farther now to Queens. Williams and Luke Weaver could form one of baseball's most dominant bullpen duos.

Position Players: The Yankees have addressed a key concern by signing Paul Goldschmidt to replace Anthony Rizzo at first base, solidifying a position that has been unstable since 2024. To continue down the path of growth and improvement, Cody Bellinger was signed as the everyday centerfielder to improve the team's defensive alignment and offensive consistency. With Bellinger in center, Aaron Judge's being shifted to right field makes for a more natural fit than Juan Soto. This shift places the Yankees on an offensive bet with power and discipline to emphasize increased contact rates.

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Toronto Blue Jays

Key Additions: After missing out on high-profile targets such as Roki Sasaki and Juan Soto this offseason and Shohei Ohtani last season, the Blue Jays finally landed a significant acquisition in Anthony Santander, who should provide a much-needed boost to their lineup. They also traded for Andrés Giménez, who will take over at second base, bringing elite defense to support their pitching staff. Giménez is only 26 and has five years of club control and a team option in 2030. 

Bullpen: Toronto made a concerted effort to improve their bullpen, which was a weak point last season. They signed Jeff Hoffman, who was initially drafted by the Blue Jays back in 2014 and was part of the Troy Tulowitzki deal a year later. If healthy, Hoffman could be an excellent addition as their closer.

Challenges: The Blue Jays need a strong start to the season to encourage the front office to invest further at the trade deadline. If they struggle early, they could shift to seller mode, potentially dealing stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, signaling the beginning of a rebuild.

Tampa Bay Rays

Challenges: The Rays face an unprecedented challenge after Hurricane Milton destroyed Tropicana Field in the offseason. As a result, they will play home games at the Yankees' spring training facility, George M. Steinbrenner Field, in Tampa, home of the Yankees and the Single-A Tampa Tarpons.

Key Additions: Ha-Seong Kim is heading to Tampa on a two-year deal worth $29 million, including an opt-out after the 2025 season. Kim is still recovering from shoulder surgery, so he is looking to debut in May and take over as the highest-paid player. Danny Janson, an old friend of the program, will also be behind the plate this year.

Health Concerns: The Rays' success this season heavily depends on the health of key players—Brandon Lowe, who was sidelined for much of last season with a couple of trips to the injured list, is crucial to their offensive production. Shane McClanahan, who missed all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery, is a Cy Young candidate when healthy.

Rays Magic: Despite their challenges, the Rays have a history of finding ways to remain competitive with under-the-radar talent, but I don't see them competing this year.

Overall Division Dynamics

New York Yankees: With significant roster upgrades on the mound and some new bats, the Yankees look like the team to beat in the AL East. Their more substantial rotation, bullpen, and defensive improvements make them a formidable contender.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles remain competitive despite losing Corbin Burnes. They rely on depth signings to maintain their success and continue to develop their young players.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are at a crossroads. A strong start could push them into contention, while early struggles could result in a midseason fire sale.

Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays face the most unique challenges but have a history of outperforming expectations to stay competitive.

The AL East is in for yet another thrilling season with big moves, high stakes, and uncertainty. Which team do you think will come out on top?

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[moonslav59]

The Rays almost always do better than they look, on paper, and they do not look bad on paper, either. I think we finish ahead of them.

I think the Jays improved by more than us, over the winter, but returning players from injury and 3 top prospects gives us enough wild cards that I think we stay ahead of them, too.

I think the Yanks & O's got slightly worse, but not by enough for us to pass them.

I predict 3rd place, again. 83-86 wins.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The Rays almost always do better than they look, on paper, and they do not look bad on paper, either. I think we finish ahead of them.

I think the Jays improved by more than us, over the winter, but returning players from injury and 3 top prospects gives us enough wild cards that I think we stay ahead of them, too.

I think the Yanks & O's got slightly worse, but not by enough for us to pass them.

I predict 3rd place, again. 83-86 wins.

That's a reasonable prediction... if the players returning from injury regain above-average production, and the rookies contribute at least a combined 3 wins through WAR.

But here's my problem: if they don't, Boston isn't improved, and could certainly regress, too.

Crochet and Buehler are here, and hopefully will be stars (again, the word hope). Statistically, they barely replace Pivetta, who started 12 games in the second half of last season and worked 64.1 IP. Crochet also started 12 and was limited to 38.2 IP. Buehler started 8 and went 38.1 IP.

The killer could be the bullpen. Gone are decent to good set-up man Martin and closer Jansen. Breslow did not replace them with equitable talent. Hendriks and Chapman might be good again -- but is anyone convinced they will be? By midseason, would it surprise if Whitlock and Slaten got the 8th and 9th?

All pitchers are susceptible to arm injuries at any time. But based on the history of virtually all Boston's current starters and relievers as question marks, how can prognosticators claim with confidence that the Red Sox are definitely improved?

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That's a reasonable prediction... if the players returning from injury regain above-average production, and the rookies contribute at least a combined 3 wins through WAR.

But here's my problem: if they don't, Boston isn't improved, and could certainly regress, too.

Crochet and Buehler are here, and hopefully will be stars (again, the word hope). Statistically, they barely replace Pivetta, who started 12 games in the second half of last season and worked 64.1 IP. Crochet also started 12 and was limited to 38.2 IP. Buehler started 8 and went 38.1 IP.

The killer could be the bullpen. Gone are decent to good set-up man Martin and closer Jansen. Breslow did not replace them with equitable talent. Hendriks and Chapman might be good again -- but is anyone convinced they will be? By midseason, would it surprise if Whitlock and Slaten got the 8th and 9th?

All pitchers are susceptible to arm injuries at any time. But based on the history of virtually all Boston's current starters and relievers as question marks, how can prognosticators claim with confidence that the Red Sox are definitely improved?

 

The thing is, all teams have some big "what ifs." We may have more than our share, since we have so many players coming off recent injuries, including Giolito, Hendriks and Fulmer, who played zero games in '24, Sandoval, Whitlock and Murphy who will start the season on the IL and plenty of players who missed part of last year with injuries: Beuhler, Devers, Story, Casas, Slaten and Grissom.

We have 3 top prospects, but they are question marks, as well.

What I like about our situation vs some others, is that we might only need 60-70% of the big questions to be answered in a positive way, and not 80-90% like I feel the others do.

I mean, aren't Rodon, Cole and Stanton big question marks, too?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What I like about our situation vs some others, is that we might only need 60-70% of the big questions to be answered in a positive way, and not 80-90% like I feel the others do.

I mean, aren't Rodon, Cole and Stanton big question marks, too?

Of course, as I said "all pitchers are susceptible to arm injuries at any time."

But the difference is the Yankees, and other teams perennially in or contending for the postseason continually upgrade with top talent every offseason to build quality depth -- to prepare for eventual and inevitable IL guys... and still stay in contention.

The Red Sox don't do that anymore.

Fans hope they will again, but all the front office does is hope the affordable players they settle for will stay on the field.

[mvp 78]

I think the Yankees take a slight step back and Fried deals with an injury. O's take a bigger step back. Rays are about the same as relying on returning players doesn't entirely work out this time. Jays get better, but without extending Vlad, there is an air of uncertainty over the org for the year. Sox are a little bit better. 

Yankees 92 wins

O's 86 wins

Sox 85 wins

Jays 83 wins

Rays 79 wins

O's end the season with 7 vs the Yanks and 3 vs the Rays. I think the Yanks ease up at home in the final series and the O's sneak into a WC birth in game 162.