The Red Sox Are Arenado’s ”Last Chance To Get Dealt”

[Davy Andrews]

According to Katie Woo, who covers the Cardinals for The Athletic, the Cardinals are running out of options in their quest to clear Nolan Arenado's salary from their books. After Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause, nixed the idea of being traded to the Astros, "there has been next to no traction in his trade talks," she wrote. Arenado was open to the Dodgers, but they weren't interested. The Yankees checked in, but weren't willing to pay what the Cardinals wanted. That leaves the Red Sox. Woo wrote, "Multiple league sources indicate the Red Sox represent Arenado's last chance to get dealt before the 2025 season."

Alex Mayes wrote about the possibility of trading for Arenado here at Talk Sox this morning, but the extent of Boston's interest in Arenado is unclear. The 33-year-old is owed $74 million over the next three years and is coming off the worst two-season stretch of his career. He would represent a clear defensive upgrade at third base, but the Red Sox would have to displace franchise cornerstone Rafael Devers in order to make room for him.

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[Army Strong]

It is concerning that the Arenado may be in his declining years.  Then, the displacement of Devers will create several negative consequences. First, he has expressed reluctance to accept the role. Secondly, attempting to move him to first base would necessitate trading a promising and talented younger player under the team’s financial control for several years. (It is uncertain whether Devers would even be an adequate first baseman.) Third, if Devers is instead to be the designated hitter, the team would be burdened with the responsibility of trading Yoshida and finding a team willing to assume his salary. These factors create a complex and uncertain situation for minimal gain.

[moonslav59]

At this point, I'd only take Arenado, if they took Yoshida plus $6M x 3 yrs.

We don't need 2 Yoshida's, but at least Arenado can play defense.

[Larry Cook]

Is hang’em Chaim clogging up this potential trade by refusing to expend the trade to include Helsley or is he asking for too much for helsley????

[notin]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is hang’em Chaim clogging up this potential trade by refusing to expend the trade to include Helsley or is he asking for too much for helsley????

Helsley was never part of the deal and the Cardinals have said they’re not moving him.  And they probably won’t until late July…

[moonslav59]

My guess is BOS is insisting on including Yoshida and the money exchange is the issue. STL is looking to save serious money, so taking Yoshida and some cash may not be saving them enough.

The more I've thought about Arenado, the less I want him. His bat looks to be ready to drop off a cliff, and we'd be stuck with two Yoshidas. At least Arenado's D is good, but I'd say no without Yoshida. We may think about adding someone, other than Helsley, who is owed a lot, but we don't need Mikolas ($17.7M x 1 and $18.6 lux tax cost) or Matz ($12.5M and $11M tax cost.) Although Willson Contreras is not very good on D, he's better than Wong. He's a damn good RHB. The problem is, he's owed what Yoshida is owed ($18M x 3 and $17.5M on lux tax line.)

Arenado + Contreras costs $45M in '25, $40M in '26 and $33M in '28 (counting COL's $5M payments over the first 2 years. The AAV would be: $43>$43>43. If we got Contreras included, I would not pay anything off Yoshida's deal, so in a sense, STL saves the full Arenado contract. Maybe we give them Rafaela, who is the only guy we can spare who is owed any large amount of money ($48M/7 remaining.) They may want Fitts or Priester or maybe even more, along with Rafaela, but I'm not sure how much they'd want or how much I'd give. Is Contreras really a major upgrade over Wong- projected over the next 3 years? (Wong had 4 years left- 3 as arbs.)

Yoshida + Rafaela cost: $19M in '25, then $20>22M, then no Yoshida w Rafaela owed $40M/4 w option. The net cost of Yoshida+ Rafaela for Arenado + Contreras: -$26M in '25, $20M in '26 and $11M in '27, then we go plus by not paying Rafaela and Wong, but we are without a catcher and OF'er.

So, does anyone like this trade?

Yoshida, Rafaela and Cespedes for Contreras & Arenado with no cash involved.

1. L Duran LF/CF

2. R Contreras C

3. L Casas 1B/DH

4. L Devers 1B/DH

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder LF

7. R Campbell 2B

8. L Anthony  CF/RF

9. R Arenado 3B

Bench: Wong, Abreu/Refsnyder, DHam and Grissom/Romy

 

 

 

[Michigan Adam2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

My guess is BOS is insisting on including Yoshida and the money exchange is the issue. STL is looking to save serious money, so taking Yoshida and some cash may not be saving them enough.

The more I've thought about Arenado, the less I want him. His bat looks to be ready to drop off a cliff, and we'd be stuck with two Yoshidas. At least Arenado's D is good, but I'd say no without Yoshida. We may think about adding someone, other than Helsley, who is owed a lot, but we don't need Mikolas ($17.7M x 1 and $18.6 lux tax cost) or Matz ($12.5M and $11M tax cost.) Although Willson Contreras is not very good on D, he's better than Wong. He's a damn good RHB. The problem is, he's owed what Yoshida is owed ($18M x 3 and $17.5M on lux tax line.)

Arenado + Contreras costs $45M in '25, $40M in '26 and $33M in '28 (counting COL's $5M payments over the first 2 years. The AAV would be: $43>$43>43. If we got Contreras included, I would not pay anything off Yoshida's deal, so in a sense, STL saves the full Arenado contract. Maybe we give them Rafaela, who is the only guy we can spare who is owed any large amount of money ($48M/7 remaining.) They may want Fitts or Priester or maybe even more, along with Rafaela, but I'm not sure how much they'd want or how much I'd give. Is Contreras really a major upgrade over Wong- projected over the next 3 years? (Wong had 4 years left- 3 as arbs.)

Yoshida + Rafaela cost: $19M in '25, then $20>22M, then no Yoshida w Rafaela owed $40M/4 w option. The net cost of Yoshida+ Rafaela for Arenado + Contreras: -$26M in '25, $20M in '26 and $11M in '27, then we go plus by not paying Rafaela and Wong, but we are without a catcher and OF'er.

So, does anyone like this trade?

Yoshida, Rafaela and Cespedes for Contreras & Arenado with no cash involved.

1. L Duran LF/CF

2. R Contreras C

3. L Casas 1B/DH

4. L Devers 1B/DH

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder LF

7. R Campbell 2B

8. L Anthony  CF/RF

9. R Arenado 3B

Bench: Wong, Abreu/Refsnyder, DHam and Grissom/Romy

 

to me a deal like this is what the sox need to do to fill in, balance the team, and eliminate their biggest holes. Then maybe pick up 1 more short relief pitcherand they are set without the long term commitments they hate atm.