mvp's Payroll Blueprint for the 2024 Red Sox

[mvp 78]

I increased the ARB raises as some seemed a little light and to be a little conservative on it. I also adjust Rafaela and Bello so that they reflect their CBT cost rather than cash. Also note that Yoshida and Giolito will not be ready on Opening Day. What it shows is that with some of the blockers on the roster (Story, Gio, Masa), there isn't really room to acquire 2 starting pitchers PLUS high end bullpen help. If Pivetta opts out, there's a little more room and maybe they can add Flaherty or another high end guy. Hard to say though. Also, no realistic shot at Soto unless Henry gets amnesia and Werner (loves his stars!) takes over the team. 😩

I think this gets them close to their comfort level with the CBT (just under at the start of the year) and maybe they try to shed Yoshida if he comes back healthy and they eat salary for a few years. 

That 6M Rafaela AAV extension didn't seem like much to people at the time, but it would prevent a cheap owner from getting a solid middle reliever. The Bello contract too. You need them to be BETTER or these extensions are just not really worth it over the lifetime of the contracts. 

I think it's a roster that will be better in June/July once supplemented with young talent and talent coming of the IL.

• C: Connor Wong ($0.80M)
• 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M)
• 2B: Krisitan Campbell ($0.80M)
• 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M)
• SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M)
• LF: Jarren Duran ($5.00M)
• CF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($6.25M)
• RF: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M)
• DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.60M)
• 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M)
• Utility: David Hamilton ($0.80M)
• Utility: Romy Gonzalez ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Jacob Stallings ($1.50M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Garrett Crochet ($25.00M)
• SP2: Tanner Houck ($5.00M)
• SP3: Brayan Bello ($9.17M)
• SP4: Nick Pivetta ($21.00M)
• SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M)
• RP: Tanner Scott ($14.00M)
• RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M)
• RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M)
• RP: Greg Weissert ($0.80M)
• RP: Kutter Crawford ($4.00M)
• RP: Luis Guerrero ($0.80M)
• RP: Zack Kelly ($0.80M)
• RP: Michael Fulmer ($1.50M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 2.08% under budget

[notin]

In this scenario, how are the Sox acquiring Crochet? And do you suspect they will DFA Vaughn Grissom?

[mvp 78]

Crochet for Mayer

Grissom stays at AAA, acts as backup for Story (move Campbell to SS in that scenario). 

[moonslav59]

What does "2.08% under budget" mean?

What budget?

Does the Crochet $25M assume an extension that begins in 2025? He has 2 arb years that may cost $4-5M and then $6-18M, depending on how well he does in 2025. I doubt he'd be given that sort of extension that comes to a $25M AAV, that buys out 2 arb years.

[Hugh2]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What does "2.08% under budget" mean?

What budget?

Does the Crochet $25M assume an extension that begins in 2025? He has 2 arb years that may cost $4-5M and then $6-18M, depending on how well he does in 2025. I doubt he'd be given that sort of extension that comes to a $25M AAV, that buys out 2 arb years.

$25 million a year isn't what it used to be.  If Crochet has a 25' and a 26' like he did in 24' how much would be get in FA? a 4-5 WAR pitcher might be worth 30-35 million a year then. And presumably you're paying him in his 20's and not getting a lot of his later 30 years. 

 

I can easily see signing him to an extension that is 25 million per, also coming from a guy who told his agent he would refuse to pitch for any team in the playoffs that traded for him unless they gave him an extension just screams "I'm going to get paid" 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What does "2.08% under budget" mean?

What budget?

Does the Crochet $25M assume an extension that begins in 2025? He has 2 arb years that may cost $4-5M and then $6-18M, depending on how well he does in 2025. I doubt he'd be given that sort of extension that comes to a $25M AAV, that buys out 2 arb years.

There was a 200M "budget" put into the calculation. It's a very rough estimation for our purposes and calculated by TalkSox, not the poster. I added in other adjustments to get it close to what FO looks at (CBT stuff). 

Crochet is going to want to be PAID. If the Sox want to trade for him, they better extend him the very first week. I was conservative on his line item. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There was a 200M "budget" put into the calculation. It's a very rough estimation for our purposes and calculated by TalkSox, not the poster. I added in other adjustments to get it close to what FO looks at (CBT stuff). 

Crochet is going to want to be PAID. If the Sox want to trade for him, they better extend him the very first week. I was conservative on his line item. 

Okay.

I'm not so sure $25M is "conservative," as his two arb years might total $16-20M/2. If we assume $20M/2 plus and extension of $90M/3, that would make it $110M/5 at an AAV of $22M. $25M is possible, especially if the extension is for 4-5 years or more.

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay.

I'm not so sure $25M is "conservative," as his two arb years might total $16-20M/2. If we assume $20M/2 plus and extension of $90M/3, that would make it $110M/5 at an AAV of $22M. $25M is possible, especially if the extension is for 4-5 years or more.

Why would he sign a 3 year extension though? He's slated to hit free agency at age 27 season.  Even if he's just a middle of the rotation starter he will easily get 100 million plus.  I think if you're buying out the arb years for 3 years in his 20's in his prime you're either paying a lot more for that OR you're offering a lot more than 3 years. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Why would he sign a 3 year extension though? He's slated to hit free agency at age 27 season.  Even if he's just a middle of the rotation starter he will easily get 100 million plus.  I think if you're buying out the arb years for 3 years in his 20's in his prime you're either paying a lot more for that OR you're offering a lot more than 3 years. 

He has to realize he could be a flash in the pan. 

2 years is a long way away, and he could lose value.

Many players extend with 2 years to go before free agency.

(I'm not high on Crochet.)

[notin]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochet for Mayer

Grissom stays at AAA, acts as backup for Story (move Campbell to SS in that scenario). 

Ok but Grissom is already on the 40 man roster, so he and his league-minimum salary should be on your list…

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok but Grissom is already on the 40 man roster, so he and his league-minimum salary should be on your list…

The list is only the 26 man roster. You can't add all the other spots. I just assumed the other 14 guys plus in season and benefits gets them fairly close to the CBT threshold.

It's not that deep bro. 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He has to realize he could be a flash in the pan. 

2 years is a long way away, and he could lose value.

Many players extend with 2 years to go before free agency.

(I'm not high on Crochet.)

Yes, that would certainly be convenient for any team looking to extend him for him to say so.  

But most guys who reach this level, unsurprisingly do not have that kind of mindset.  It shouldn't be shocking that the best of the best of the best of the best at something are inclined to bet on themselves. 

Also, look at what guys are getting paid nowadays in FA, even guys who get hurt make bank.  If he was going to sign a team friendly deal for the peace of mind he would have done so by now. 

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There was a 200M "budget" put into the calculation. It's a very rough estimation for our purposes and calculated by TalkSox, not the poster. I added in other adjustments to get it close to what FO looks at (CBT stuff). 

Crochet is going to want to be PAID. If the Sox want to trade for him, they better extend him the very first week. I was conservative on his line item. 

Isn’t there an add in for benefits??? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t there an add in for benefits??? 

No. Feel free to use the payroll feature on TalkSox and try it out! You don't even have to post it, just save a draft.