Bill James blasts current day baseball statisticians

[jung]

https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/sports/bill-james-godfather-of-sabermetrics-blasts-computer-guys/#:~:text=However%2C%20the%2074%2Dyear%2D,in%20a%20thread%20on%20X.

 

I agree Bill. But you started this mess and you even engaged in minutia first.

[cp176]

There really is something about "too much information" leads to "paralysis analysis" on occasion. Ask the greatest hitters of all time what studying advanced metrics or whatever did for them, this is what you might get. The Tony Perez secret to hitting - I see the ball, I hit the ball.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not really clear what these "large-scale issues" Bill is referring to are supposed to be.

[Bellhorn04]

Bill is sounding kind of bitter these days. He made a crack in spring training about the Red Sox roster, saying they only needed to upgrade about 18-19 spots or something like that.

[jung]

Bill is sounding kind of bitter these days. He made a crack in spring training about the Red Sox roster, saying they only needed to upgrade about 18-19 spots or something like that.

 

Bill's comments regarding advanced stats have nothing specifically to do with the Red Sox.

 

His comments are about how far flung and contrary to the good of the game all this statistical nonsense has become. Players have been ground down to a nominal standard that discounts aspect of the game that are actually at the heart of the popularity of the game.....AND.....MLB's insistence on trying to use them to expand the game's popularity have been a giant FAIL. If you like spread sheets and minutia you are happy. If you like the game itself.....not so much. But we can use the Red Sox as an exhibit for the issues.

 

As for this constant insistence on lifting the ball, Duran has 10 HR's, Rafiela has 9, Wong has 7. We have two legitimate HR threats on the current roster and not on the IL. Those would be Rafi and O'Neal. The rest are still swinging for the fences with occasional success. Yoshida has warning track power but he is still swinging like its going over the fence. Duran is less effects than Rafaela who is a JOKE in this regard.

 

Oh and the way the stat masters have screwed up pitching is even worse. Our Sox staff is running out of gas at the start of July.....not that they can go deeper than 5-6 innings. They can go 5-6 innings to the end of June. Cora trying to find ways to extend rest between starts.

[notin]

Bill's comments regarding advanced stats have nothing specifically to do with the Red Sox.

 

His comments are about how far flung and contrary to the good of the game all this statistical nonsense has become. Players have been ground down to a nominal standard that discounts aspect of the game that are actually at the heart of the popularity of the game.....AND.....MLB's insistence on trying to use them to expand the game's popularity have been a giant FAIL. If you like spread sheets and minutia you are happy. If you like the game itself.....not so much. But we can use the Red Sox as an exhibit for the issues.

 

As for this constant insistence on lifting the ball, Duran has 10 HR's, Rafiela has 9, Wong has 7. We have two legitimate HR threats on the current roster and not on the IL. Those would be Rafi and O'Neal. The rest are still swinging for the fences with occasional success. Yoshida has warning track power but he is still swinging like its going over the fence. Duran is less effects than Rafaela who is a JOKE in this regard.

 

Oh and the way the stat masters have screwed up pitching is even worse. Our Sox staff is running out of gas at the start of July.....not that they can go deeper than 5-6 innings. They can go 5-6 innings to the end of June. Cora trying to find ways to extend rest between starts.

 

Lifting the ball isn’t a new concept, and it doesn’t become one just because someone coined the phrase “launch angle.” Ted Williams recognized it as the root cause of productive hitting over three quarters of a century ago, and he probably wasn’t the first to do so.

 

The best strategy for running a team is “hit it in the air, but keep it on the ground.” A lot of metrics are just massive expansions of this simple principle. Now I would agree that some hitters should try to keep that launch angle under 30 degrees, and get back to the disappearing art of being a line drive hitter.

 

I do think a lot of metric stuff is mis-cited. For example, many think sabermetrics frown on bunting. Not true. They frown on sacrifice bunting. But if you can bunt for a base hit, that’s a different matter…

[Dipre]

Managers have been applying these simplified principles for years.

 

Earl Weaver spent his entire managerial career advocating for OBP+Power for his lineup, and K's+Ground Balls for his pitchers. "We hit out of the park, and don't let the other team hit it out of the park" was his idea. We just know the intricacies of these concepts nowadays.

[jung]

Lifting the ball isn’t a new concept, and it doesn’t become one just because someone coined the phrase “launch angle.” Ted Williams recognized it as the root cause of productive hitting over three quarters of a century ago, and he probably wasn’t the first to do so.

 

The best strategy for running a team is “hit it in the air, but keep it on the ground.” A lot of metrics are just massive expansions of this simple principle. Now I would agree that some hitters should try to keep that launch angle under 30 degrees, and get back to the disappearing art of being a line drive hitter.

 

I do think a lot of metric stuff is mis-cited. For example, many think sabermetrics frown on bunting. Not true. They frown on sacrifice bunting. But if you can bunt for a base hit, that’s a different matter…

 

Again using the Sox as an example....Ted Willians had actual power like Rafi and like O'Neal. Duran does not, Yoshida does not, Rafaela is a Joke in this regard as is Wong.

 

Our speedsters would do much more good for this team getting on base and disrupting the other team's pitcher than hitting one run home runs.

 

This Red Sox edition is mightily helped by the reality that MLB is chock full of crap teams.

[jung]

Managers have been applying these simplified principles for years.

 

Earl Weaver spent his entire managerial career advocating for OBP+Power for his lineup, and K's+Ground Balls for his pitchers. "We hit out of the park, and don't let the other team hit it out of the park" was his idea. We just know the intricacies of these concepts nowadays.

 

But he did not have Mark Beleaguer swinging for the fences.

 

Weaver favored 3 run HR's. Ya' gotta have two on to hit a 3 run HR.

Edited July 4, 2024 by jung

[Maxbialystock]

Again using the Sox as an example....Ted Willians had actual power like Rafi and like O'Neal. Duran does not, Yoshida does not, Rafaela is a Joke in this regard as is Wong.

 

Our speedsters would do much more good for this team getting on base and disrupting the other team's pitcher than hitting one run home runs.

 

This Red Sox edition is mightily helped by the reality that MLB is chock full of crap teams.

 

Oh stop it. Just stop it. I freely grant this 2024 Sox team is riddled with imperfections, but you have jumped into the deep end without your water wings.

 

This team, which you have grossly misjudged, is playing good ball despite a frightening bad infield defense, a no-name rotation, an almost no-name lineup (Devers is well known), and a bullpen that in the recent Miami series looked awful. Fortunately Crawford, Bello, and Pivetta all had terrific starts.

 

You appear to be completely unaware that these no-name Sox are succeeding in part because they have the best manager in MLB and one of the best pitching coaches.

[notin]

Again using the Sox as an example....Ted Willians had actual power like Rafi and like O'Neal. Duran does not, Yoshida does not, Rafaela is a Joke in this regard as is Wong.

 

Our speedsters would do much more good for this team getting on base and disrupting the other team's pitcher than hitting one run home runs.

 

This Red Sox edition is mightily helped by the reality that MLB is chock full of crap teams.

 

 

Right. They need to stop being so efficient and scoring and stuff. Why score runs when you can irritate the opposing pitcher…

[Dipre]

But he did not have Mark Beleaguer swinging for the fences.

 

Weaver favored 3 run HR's. Ya' gotta have two on to hit a 3 run HR.

 

Did I not clearly state in my post "OBP+power"?

[S5Dewey]

Right. They need to stop being so efficient and scoring and stuff. Why score runs when you can irritate the opposing pitcher…

 

Seriously? You're smarter than that. "Irritating the opposing pitcher" is good strategy at every level of baseball. The more a pitcher is distracted the less he's focusing on his next pitch, and at the MLB level every small distraction is a plus for the offense.

 

Of course that's JMO because you will NEVER hear a pitcher admit, "Ya, I hung a curve ball because I was concerned about that runner on 1st getting that huge frikkin' lead", but if you've watched or played any baseball you know it's true. One of the best things a team can do to improve their chances is to distract the opposing pitcher.

 

The method of scoring runs doesn't have to be an either/or thing. It can also be a "both" thing.

[notin]

Seriously? You're smarter than that. "Irritating the opposing pitcher" is good strategy at every level of baseball. The more a pitcher is distracted the less he's focusing on his next pitch, and at the MLB level every small distraction is a plus for the offense.

 

Of course that's JMO because you will NEVER hear a pitcher admit, "Ya, I hung a curve ball because I was concerned about that runner on 1st getting that huge frikkin' lead", but if you've watched or played any baseball you know it's true. One of the best things a team can do to improve their chances is to distract the opposing pitcher.

 

The method of scoring runs doesn't have to be an either/or thing. It can also be a "both" thing.

 

Irritating the pitcher over scoring runs? That was the original premise.

 

Sometimes, you just gotta take the runs.

 

Scratch that. Always take the runs. Scoring runs is a good thing.

 

 

 

(Also those little guys putting one over the wall has gotta get under the skin of a few pitchers.)

[Bellhorn04]

Irritating the pitcher over scoring runs? That was the original premise.

 

C'mon man, nobody said irritating over scoring, because nobody would. You injected that into the discussion yourself. jung was clearly suggesting irritating and scoring.

[Old Red]

Right. They need to stop being so efficient and scoring and stuff. Why score runs when you can irritate the opposing pitcher…

 

🙈🤭🤮.

[notin]

C'mon man, nobody said irritating over scoring, because nobody would. You injected that into the discussion yourself. jung was clearly suggesting irritating and scoring.

 

 

Posts 5 and 8?

 

 

He suggested irritating pitchers over hitting home runs. And made it sound like they were only hitting solo home runs.

 

Hitting home runs is scoring 100% of the time. Irritating pitchers is a good strategy, but it simply didn’t lead to scoring that often.

 

I get their home run volume is low and they’d be thorns to pitchers more often. But you look at OBP for that. Not home runs. Is hitting 8-10 home runs really taking down their OBP that much?

 

And with Duran, he has 23 doubles and 10 triples hitting like he is. But he doesn’t bother the pitcher as much with those extra bases. So are those also a bad thing?

[Old Red]

posts 5 and 8?

 

 

He suggested irritating pitchers over hitting home runs. And made it sound like they were only hitting solo home runs.

 

Hitting home runs is scoring 100% of the time. Irritating pitchers is a good strategy, but it simply didn’t lead to scoring that often.

 

I get their home run volume is low and they’d be thorns to pitchers more often. But you look at obp for that. Not home runs. Is hitting 8-10 home runs really taking down their obp that much?

 

And with duran, he has 23 doubles and 10 triples hitting like he is. But he doesn’t bother the pitcher as much with those extra bases. So are those also a bad thing?

 

nnn🤭🙈.

[notin]

nnn.

 

Right. Good call. Duran needs to change his approach and stop being a top ten player in the AL. Ditto Wong with his batting average among league best…

[Old Red]

Right. Good call. Duran needs to change his approach and stop being a top ten player in the AL. Ditto Wong with his batting average among league best…

 

You go off on your own tangents. Going, going, gone.

[Bellhorn04]

He suggested irritating pitchers over hitting home runs.

 

You know what he meant. And oddly enough, I can't find the word "irritating" in his posts.

[notin]

You know what he meant. And oddly enough, I can't find the word "irritating" in his posts.

 

Yes I do know what he meant. He was specific about how the Sox would be better if Duran/Hamilton/Wong hit fewer extra base hits and instead just got to first base and used their speed to get into the pitchers’ heads.

 

While I get the importance of the runner on first causing problems for the pitcher, how is that more important than the overall vast improvements we have seen in those small speedy guys he says have no business hitting “one run home runs”? (And how did you possibly not attack that?)

 

Duran is one of the best offensive players in the league. Wong leads all AL catchers in batting average (150 PA min). These are players using the metrics and their lessons to become significant offensive contributors and potential All Stars. But Jung is suggesting they dial it back and instead one third of the lineup fall back into a role where their job is to instead support the remaining hitters.

[Old Red]

Again using the Sox as an example....Ted Willians had actual power like Rafi and like O'Neal. Duran does not, Yoshida does not, Rafaela is a Joke in this regard as is Wong.

 

Our speedsters would do much more good for this team getting on base and disrupting the other team's pitcher than hitting one run home runs.

 

This Red Sox edition is mightily helped by the reality that MLB is chock full of crap teams.

 

Right on regarding the number of crap teams.

[Old Red]

Yes I do know what he meant. He was specific about how the Sox would be better if Duran/Hamilton/Wong hit fewer extra base hits and instead just got to first base and used their speed to get into the pitchers’ heads.

 

While I get the importance of the runner on first causing problems for the pitcher, how is that more important than the overall vast improvements we have seen in those small speedy guys he says have no business hitting “one run home runs”? (And how did you possibly not attack that?)

 

Duran is one of the best offensive players in the league. Wong leads all AL catchers in batting average (150 PA min). These are players using the metrics and their lessons to become significant offensive contributors and potential All Stars. But Jung is suggesting they dial it back and instead one third of the lineup fall back into a role where their job is to instead support the remaining hitters.

I didn’t know metrics could hit a baseball. Interesting. Very interesting.

[dgalehouse]

Stealing bases is easier that it has been in the past. I think some pitchers have become more or less resigned to it and just mainly try to focus on the batter. Makes it very difficult for the catcher to throw out the faster runners.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes I do know what he meant. He was specific about how the Sox would be better if Duran/Hamilton/Wong hit fewer extra base hits and instead just got to first base and used their speed to get into the pitchers’ heads.

 

While I get the importance of the runner on first causing problems for the pitcher, how is that more important than the overall vast improvements we have seen in those small speedy guys he says have no business hitting “one run home runs”? (And how did you possibly not attack that?)

 

Duran is one of the best offensive players in the league. Wong leads all AL catchers in batting average (150 PA min). These are players using the metrics and their lessons to become significant offensive contributors and potential All Stars. But Jung is suggesting they dial it back and instead one third of the lineup fall back into a role where their job is to instead support the remaining hitters.

 

I actually agree with you. Just tryin' to keep things fair.

[notin]

Stealing bases is easier that it has been in the past. I think some pitchers have become more or less resigned to it and just mainly try to focus on the batter. Makes it very difficult for the catcher to throw out the faster runners.

 

 

I think the rule changes do help. Pitch clock can occasionally tell the runner an idea when the windup can start, giving him an extra step or two before the pitcher even starts.

 

The rule minimizing pickoff attempts helps, too. Once the pitcher has thrown over twice, that runner can go take a much, much larger lead…

[notin]

I didn’t know metrics could hit a baseball. Interesting. Very interesting.

 

So Bellhorn, do you limit your critiques solely to my posts? We gotta live one here…

[Old Red]

so bellhorn, do you limit your critiques solely to my posts? We gotta live one here…

 

😭😭😭! Nnn

[notin]

! Nnn

 

Every time you type that, I picture you as the cranky, grizzled, flannel-wearing greybeard forcibly squeezing monosyllabic grunts to express your frustration with those gosh darn changes in the world. It’s very Neanderthal.

 

It brings a smile to my face every time