Red Sox ownership

[mvp 78]

Also, Keller's fastball is in the 34th percentile. Is that topflight velo now? WTH?

[notin]

Huh? Manaea had 4.89 ERA/3.81 xFIP in 81 innings. That's not lights out numbers for a bulk relief role. That dude stinks and is not an effective starter. If he couldn't pitch with SDP's defense behind him, he shouldn't pitch at Fenway.

 

From July 29 until the end of the year, 2.61 ERA/3.84 FIP with .596 OPSA.

 

It’s easy to do worse…

[mvp 78]

Urena is one of the worst pitchers in the league. Could he get better at some point? Maybe. He hasn't had an ERA below 5 since 2018!

[moonslav59]

Huh? Manaea had 4.89 ERA/3.81 xFIP in 81 innings. That's not lights out numbers for a bulk relief role. That dude stinks and is not an effective starter. If he couldn't pitch with SDP's defense behind him, he shouldn't pitch at Fenway.

 

If these are the types of guys we are looking at, I’d rather we just play the kids and punt to 2025.

[mvp 78]

From July 29 until the end of the year, 2.61 ERA/3.84 FIP with .596 OPSA.

 

It’s easy to do worse…

 

Like with the Snell conversation, not lights out then just lucky?

[Bellhorn04]

From July 29 until the end of the year, 2.61 ERA/3.84 FIP with .596 OPSA.

 

It’s easy to do worse…

 

Yes, he's a Wacha-level talent.

[mvp 78]

If these are the types of guys we are looking at, I’d rather we just play the kids and punt to 2025.

 

Fujinami could be an interesting arm, but they've already added a Rule 5 guy and have a fairly decent pen. They need help in the rotation with Fujinami doesn't provide.

[moonslav59]

Yes, he's a Wacha-level talent.

 

Not even

[Dipre]

I'd take a flyer on Manaea, but as a tertiary option.

[notin]

Also, Keller's fastball is in the 34th percentile. Is that topflight velo now? WTH?

 

Over the last 3 years, Keller ranks 31 in fastball velocity in all of MLB per Fangraphs. (300 IP min).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=10&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2023&sortcol=3&sortdir=default&pageitems=30&qual=300&pagenum=2

 

Not the highest among FA pitchers - Snell and Montas are both higher, for two. But certainly higher than I thought Keller would be…

[notin]

Fujinami could be an interesting arm, but they've already added a Rule 5 guy and have a fairly decent pen. They need help in the rotation with Fujinami doesn't provide.

 

It is possible our “Houck to the bullpen” fantasy is just that…

[Bellhorn04]

Not even

 

Career fWAR and projections both say they're very close.

[mvp 78]

Yes, he's a Wacha-level talent.

 

He was with Bailey last year and they didn't keep him in the rotation. We haven't heard anything about them being linked. I think that probably says a lot about Bailey's thought on Manaea's talent level.

[Bellhorn04]

It is possible our “Houck to the bullpen” fantasy is just that…

 

Our fantasy that the Red Sox have a competent front office is just that.

[notin]

Like with the Snell conversation, not lights out then just lucky?

 

There is that possibility.

 

But unless something chances, there are the target levels we appear to be aiming for..,

[notin]

Our fantasy that the Red Sox have a competent front office is just that.

 

That may be as well. But it doesn’t help the team this year…

Edited December 26, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe Breslow told the owners he was 100% sure he could put together a good rotation on the same shoestring budget that Bloom had.

 

"You're hired!"

[Hugh2]

Maybe Breslow told the owners he was 100% sure he could put together a good rotation on the same shoestring budget that Bloom had.

 

"You're hired!"

 

 

Breslow in 4 years to Henry after being fired.

 

Henry "I thought you Yalies were supposed to be smart, why can't any of you build me a winner"

Breslow "smart enough to convince a dummy like you to hire me"

[moonslav59]

There is that possibility.

 

But unless something chances, there are the target levels we appear to be aiming for..,

 

 

Feel free to make suggestions that keep us from even 80 wins.

 

If these are the guys we are serious about, count me out from having to choose from that group.

[mvp 78]

Over the last 3 years, Keller ranks 31 in fastball velocity in all of MLB per Fangraphs. (300 IP min).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=10&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2023&sortcol=3&sortdir=default&pageitems=30&qual=300&pagenum=2

 

Not the highest among FA pitchers - Snell and Montas are both higher, for two. But certainly higher than I thought Keller would be…

 

That's solely based on the min IP requirement you put. If you put it to 200, he falls to 55 behind elite velo guys like NICK PIVETTA. If you put it to 150, he falls to 112 behind elite JOSH WINCKOWSKI.

[notin]

He was with Bailey last year and they didn't keep him in the rotation. We haven't heard anything about them being linked. I think that probably says a lot about Bailey's thought on Manaea's talent level.

 

I’m not reporting rumors. Just pitchers I find statistically interesting. These deep dives are the reality right now. Assuming we even go that far…

[notin]

That's solely based on the min IP requirement you put. If you put it to 200, he falls to 55 behind elite velo guys like NICK PIVETTA. If you put it to 150, he falls to 112 behind elite JOSH WINCKOWSKI.

 

True. And I actually chose it without checking his IP.

 

He does throw fairly hard, and that will get him a job. No idea where.

 

And why do you think Winckowski didn’t throw hard? He brought gas from that pen plenty of times.

 

(Of course comparing the velocity of a SP to a reliever often benefits the reliever.)

[notin]

Feel free to make suggestions that keep us from even 80 wins.

 

If these are the guys we are serious about, count me out from having to choose from that group.

 

Hey feel free to do better without going over the Sox budget…

[mvp 78]

I’m not reporting rumors. Just pitchers I find statistically interesting. These deep dives are the reality right now. Assuming we even go that far…

 

I'm not saying you were reporting rumors, just that Manaea may not even be interesting to Crag.

[mvp 78]

True. And I actually chose it without checking his IP.

 

He does throw fairly hard, and that will get him a job. No idea where.

 

And why do you think Winckowski didn’t throw hard? He brought gas from that pen plenty of times.

 

(Of course comparing the velocity of a SP to a reliever often benefits the reliever.)

 

He brought "gas" but NOBODY would say he has elite velo. C'mon.....

[mvp 78]

Hey feel free to do better without going over the Sox budget…

 

What's the budget? We don't know!

[moonslav59]

Hey feel free to do better without going over the Sox budget…

 

I’ve stated my preference: concentrate on quality over quantity. Put all the winter spending budget into 3 players:

 

SP

SP

2B

 

Now, if we spend big on 2 guys and have very little left over, then maybe one of these guys might make sense.

 

If we get even two SPers like Stroman and Imanaga, none of the guys you listed look to crack my top 13 opening day pitchers.

[notin]

I’ve stated my preference: concentrate on quality over quantity. Put all the winter spending budget into 3 players:

 

SP

SP

2B

 

Now, if we spend big on 2 guys and have very little left over, then maybe one of these guys might make sense.

 

If we get even two SPers like Stroman and Imanaga, none of the guys you listed look to crack my top 13 opening day pitchers.

 

I’d prefer Stroman and Imanaga, too. And I’m one of the few pro-Giolito posters.

 

But all three is simply not reality. And two of them is a likely pipe dream, unless we are all completely misreading this front office.

 

So are the Sox one SP away? And is that one SP Stroman/Giolito/Imanaga?

 

 

And I’m sure if I saw your top 13 list, I’d be writing off a few names on that…

[mvp 78]

I’ve stated my preference: concentrate on quality over quantity. Put all the winter spending budget into 3 players:

 

SP

SP

2B

 

Now, if we spend big on 2 guys and have very little left over, then maybe one of these guys might make sense.

 

If we get even two SPers like Stroman and Imanaga, none of the guys you listed look to crack my top 13 opening day pitchers.

 

They need a 2B better than Valdez/Reyes. That shouldn't be hard to do.

 

They need SP better than Bello/Sale/Crawford/Houck/Pivetta. Some of the names throw around (tier 4 and lower), are NOT better than these guys. What's the point in adding if they aren't higher quality!?!?!?

[notin]

What's the budget? We don't know!

 

On any given day, it’s the Sox current payroll.

 

Minus 10%…