A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

So, O'Neill might miss close to the same time Duvall missed.

 

Was that good or bad for the Sox? For a platoon player, does that help?

[mvp 78]

I don't get the negativity on Wong.

 

Is he a finished product? 5 years of team control. Maybe he"ll improve

 

He's 28. How much better would he get?

[moonslav59]

Was that good or bad for the Sox? For a platoon player, does that help?

 

It's not good that he misses the same time Duvall did. Mt point was that O'Neill's comp with Duvall includes about the same injury risk. I think replacing Duvall with O'Neill is close to a push.

 

Replacing Dugo with more OF play from Abreu, Rafaela and Duran is highly speculative.

[moonslav59]

He's 28. How much better would he get?

 

Many catchers improve, some greatly, after 28, especially on D.

 

VTek's best years were after age 30. (His O was better, too, but that cannot be expected from Wong.)

 

Wong hasn't even played 162 games in MLB, yet. It's entirely possible he improves on those numbers in the next 5 years.

[mvp 78]

It's not good that he misses the same time Duvall did. Mt point was that O'Neill's comp with Duvall includes about the same injury risk. I think replacing Duvall with O'Neill is close to a push.

 

Replacing Dugo with more OF play from Abreu, Rafaela and Duran is highly speculative.

 

Duvall's injury was from breaking a bone when he hit the ground, right? That's not quite the same as what O'Neilllllll has gone through.

[mvp 78]

Many catchers improve, some greatly, after 28, especially on D.

 

VTek's best years were after age 30. (His O was better, too, but that cannot be expected from Wong.)

 

Wong hasn't even played 162 games in MLB, yet. It's entirely possible he improves on those numbers in the next 5 years.

 

Possible, but unlikely.

[moonslav59]

VTek's career by age group:

 

Offense:

.763 OPS up to age 28 (91 OPS+)

.831 OPS from 29-33 (114 OPS+)

.726 OPS from ages 34-39 (87 OPS+)

 

dWAR

1.2 in 2750 innings (>28)

3.0 in 4,650 innings (29-33)

4.6 in 4,600 innings (34-39)

 

His best DRS seasons:

+7 at 37

+4 at 36

+2 at 35

+1 at 34

0 at age 32 and 30

 

[notin]

He's 28. How much better would he get?

 

As you have repeatedly reminded us, Varitek wa a 1.5 fWAR catcher at age 28. He then went on to have seasons of 1.7, 2.3, 3.8, 4.1 and 3.5 fWAR over his next 5.

 

Wong at age 27 was only worth 0.5 fWAR, so the ceiling is very likely a lot less...

[moonslav59]

Duvall's injury was from breaking a bone when he hit the ground, right? That's not quite the same as what O'Neilllllll has gone through.

 

Well, one of sale's was from riding a bike.

 

2018> games played/ PAs

560/1989 Duvall

477/1636 O'Neill

 

2021-2023

324/1223 Duvall

306/1186 O'Neill

 

Pretty close to a wash

[moonslav59]

As you have repeatedly reminded us, Varitek wa a 1.5 fWAR catcher at age 28. He then went on to have seasons of 1.7, 2.3, 3.8, 4.1 and 3.5 fWAR over his next 5.

 

Wong at age 27 was only worth 0.5 fWAR, so the ceiling is very likely a lot less...

 

Agreed, but improvement is certainly possible, if not likely.

 

Most players best 162 games are not their first.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As you have repeatedly reminded us, Varitek wa a 1.5 fWAR catcher at age 28. He then went on to have seasons of 1.7, 2.3, 3.8, 4.1 and 3.5 fWAR over his next 5.

 

Wong at age 27 was only worth 0.5 fWAR, so the ceiling is very likely a lot less...

 

He does play on a team in the basement after all; even if there's a drop ceiling with acoustical tiles, it's no higher than eight feet.

 

Varitek played in a basilica of Sox history, with a cathedral ceiling with open skylights where guys like Martinez and Lowe regularly fired projectiles to pick off flocks of bats from Louisville.

[mvp 78]

As you have repeatedly reminded us, Varitek wa a 1.5 fWAR catcher at age 28. He then went on to have seasons of 1.7, 2.3, 3.8, 4.1 and 3.5 fWAR over his next 5.

 

Wong at age 27 was only worth 0.5 fWAR, so the ceiling is very likely a lot less...

 

To be fair, bWAR gave Wong 2.2 bWAR last season and Varitek 1.9 bWAR when he was 27. Wong's season definitely didn't feel like a 2.2 bWAR season to me though.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but improvement is certainly possible, if not likely.

 

Most players best 162 games are not their first.

 

Why is it likely?

[Elktonnick]

Looking at the schedule, three series on the west coast is not a good way for the Sox to begin the season. Traditionally Boston teams do not play well out west. Then they come back to face the Orioles. We could see a Red Sox team not winning 10 games before May 1st.

[mvp 78]

Looking at the schedule, three series on the west coast is not a good way for the Sox to begin the season. Traditionally Boston teams do not play well out west. Then they come back to face the Orioles. We could see a Red Sox team not winning 10 games before May 1st.

 

I noticed that, but I wonder if that's because of the time change adjustment midseason. Maybe they can work around it as it's the start of the year? The majority of the games are LATE too.

[notin]

Looking at the schedule, three series on the west coast is not a good way for the Sox to begin the season. Traditionally Boston teams do not play well out west. Then they come back to face the Orioles. We could see a Red Sox team not winning 10 games before May 1st.

 

Starting out west might be best case scenario as well.

 

Oakland is a small market team coming off a 50-112 season. They have upgraded their rotation with some middling veteran arms, and should improve assuming health. But they will still finish at the bottom of this division. The Angels are down Ohtani, which is a substantial loss, and have done less to upgrade their team than Boston has. (Roster Resource has Drury moving from 2B to DH and Luis Rengifo taking over 2b full time as Ohtani's de facto replacement.) Seattle certainly should be an issue, as they stand to benefit the most from the likely steps back made by Texas and the current state of the Astros staff. I'd rather start on the west coast than than taking a road trip through Baltimore, New York and Toronto.

 

Of course, the latter road games are still inevitable, and this only relates to the start of the season...

[mvp 78]

Starting out west might be best case scenario as well.

 

Oakland is a small market team coming off a 50-112 season. They have upgraded their rotation with some middling veteran arms, and should improve assuming health. But they will still finish at the bottom of this division. The Angels are down Ohtani, which is a substantial loss, and have done less to upgrade their team than Boston has. (Roster Resource has Drury moving from 2B to DH and Luis Rengifo taking over 2b full time as Ohtani's de facto replacement.) Seattle certainly should be an issue, as they stand to benefit the most from the likely steps back made by Texas and the current state of the Astros staff. I'd rather start on the west coast than than taking a road trip through Baltimore, New York and Toronto.

 

Of course, the latter road games are still inevitable, and this only relates to the start of the season...

2023 Sox:

 

1-2 @ OAK

1-2 @ SEA

0-3 @ LAA

[moonslav59]

Why is it likely?

 

"Possible, if not likely"

 

IMO, a player's first 162 games in MLB are rarely his best. They might be all he gets, and some who don't make it, do drop out of baseball by doing the same or worse than their first 162 games in MLB. (Dalbec might be an example of this.)

 

With catchers, again, IMO, most mature and improve on D after age 28. Many don't until their 30's, including VTek.

 

With his offense, it's hard to project how anybody does after just 473 career PAs, and you don't need a good OPS to be middle of the pack in MLB.

 

Catcher OPS in MLB:

.697 in '21

.663 in '22

.697 in .23

 

Wong is at .670, right now.

 

2023 was his first real "full season" at the MLB level. He was at .721 as late as Sept 12th, but that .198 OPS over his last 43 PAs really killed is seasonal numbers. Of course, they should count, but I see a real possibility he improves his O, and I think it is likely he improves his D.

[harmony]

Starting out west might be best case scenario as well.

 

Oakland is a small market team coming off a 50-112 season. They have upgraded their rotation with some middling veteran arms, and should improve assuming health. But they will still finish at the bottom of this division. The Angels are down Ohtani, which is a substantial loss, and have done less to upgrade their team than Boston has. (Roster Resource has Drury moving from 2B to DH and Luis Rengifo taking over 2b full time as Ohtani's de facto replacement.) Seattle certainly should be an issue, as they stand to benefit the most from the likely steps back made by Texas and the current state of the Astros staff. I'd rather start on the west coast than than taking a road trip through Baltimore, New York and Toronto.

 

Of course, the latter road games are still inevitable, and this only relates to the start of the season...

In 2019 the reigning World Series champion Red Sox opened the season 2-6 with four games at Seattle and four games at Oakland:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

 

... and 3-8 after three more games at Arizona.

 

In 2019 this poster attended the Sunday game in Seattle but can't find anyone to attend this year's Red Sox game in Seattle on Sunday, March 31.

[moonslav59]

2023 Sox:

 

1-2 @ OAK

1-2 @ SEA

0-3 @ LAA

 

2022:

 

3-0 @OAK

3-0 @ LAA

2-1 @ SEA (the 1 loss was 7-6, when Robles let up 2 in the bottom of the 9th))

 

[notin]

2023 Sox:

 

1-2 @ OAK

1-2 @ SEA

0-3 @ LAA

 

Swept by the Angels? They were 16th in runs scored last year with the MVP. They could easily be a bottom ten offense this season. The Angels went 73-89 and are replacing 6.6 fWAR with 1.9 fWAR. They might be in a 3 way battle with Oakland and Chicago for worst record in the AL...

Edited February 15, 2024 by notin

[notin]

Swept by the Angels? They were 16th in runs scored last year with the MVP. They could easily be a bottom ten offense this season. The Angels went 73-89 and are replacing 6.6 fWAR with 1.9 fWAR. They might be in a 3 way battle with Oakland and Chicago for worst record in the AL...

 

Obviously this can change if they at least add Snell or Montgomery. Although MLBTR has them as reducing the budget from 2023 in an article today.

 

This is a shame, as they are one team that would benefit the most from any of the Boras Four, given their rotation has a massively overpriced Tyler Anderson and Chase Silseth per Roster Resource. They do have Rendon at third base, and he should give them one or two dozen good games. (Maybe he should move to DH and Drury back to 2b, since Brandon is a better fielder than Rengifo.). And 1b is occupied by some guy named Nolan Schaunel, who I don't think is a real person. RR does have Schaunel platooning, but it is unclear with whom, as the RHH platoon bats are Jo Adell and Aaron Hicks (technically a switch hitter). Neither has ever spent much time at first base, and all of that time is as a baserunner...

[mvp 78]

2022:

 

3-0 @OAK

3-0 @ LAA

2-1 @ SEA (the 1 loss was 7-6, when Robles let up 2 in the bottom of the 9th))

 

 

Does this team have the talent level the '22 team had?

[mvp 78]

Swept by the Angels? They were 16th in runs scored last year with the MVP. They could easily be a bottom ten offense this season. The Angels went 73-89 and are replacing 6.6 fWAR with 1.9 fWAR. They might be in a 3 way battle with Oakland and Chicago for worst record in the AL...

 

Laugh it up fuzzball.

[moonslav59]

Does this team have the talent level the '22 team had?

 

Hard to know.

 

Nobody expected Wacha, Hill and Strahm to do as well as they did.

 

Either way, there has been a lot of turnover between '22 and '23 as well as ;23 to '24.

[notin]

Laugh it up fuzzball.

 

You're lucky. I don't know how to spell any of Chewbacca's lines...

[notin]

Does this team have the talent level the '22 team had?

 

It might have more, for what that is worth...

[mvp 78]

It might have more, for what that is worth...

 

C Vaz > Wong

1B Dalbec

2B Story > Grissom

SS Xander > Story

3B Raffy = Raffy

RF JBJ

CF Kiké

LF Verdugo = Duran

DH JD > Masa

SP Eovaldi/Wacha/Hill/Pivetta = Giolito/Bello/Pivetta/Crawford

RP Schreiber/Whitlock/etc

 

It's clear that '24 is much improved at RP and 1B. OF has a chance to be significantly better. Everywhere else seems like a push or a significant dropoff.

[moonslav59]

Some numbers on Catching in MLB, today. (Source: fangraphs)

 

I won't count 2020.

 

The league fWAR for the catching position has ranged from 46.4 in 2007 to 79.5 in 2012. Divide by 30 teams, and the team avg has been between about 1.5 and 2. 6. The Sox have a 43.2 fWAR in the last 20 years, or about a 1.5 rate per year. It's been 4.5 in the last 3 years (1.5 avg.) It was 1.0 in 2023- below average. It did not help that Alfaro and CHamilton totaled a -0.3 fWAR in just 8 games, but even if you discount them, we were below average, but pretty close to average.

 

As I've opined, before, I think most catchers reach their peaks on defense after age 29, 30 or even later. McGuire is 28 and soon to be 29. He was injured for part of 2023, but put up some decent fWARs in 2021 (1.4) and 2022 (1.6), while never playing in more than 90 games. That is pretty impressive. fangraphs has not been kind to the 27 year old Wong, He has a 0.8 fWAR in 159 games in MLB, career.

 

bWAR had this for 2023:

2.2 Wong (same as Casas)

-0.1 Alfaro

-0.1 CHamilton

-0.3 McGuire

 

I think we might get to about average at Catcher in 2024, both on O and D. Just my opinion and certainly could be homer biased.

[mvp 78]

Some numbers on Catching in MLB, today. (Source: fangraphs)

 

I won't count 2020.

 

The league fWAR for the catching position has ranged from 46.4 in 2007 to 79.5 in 2012. Divide by 30 teams, and the team avg has been between about 1.5 and 2. 6. The Sox have a 43.2 fWAR in the last 20 years, or about a 1.5 rate per year. It's been 4.5 in the last 3 years (1.5 avg.) It was 1.0 in 2023- below average. It did not help that Alfaro and CHamilton totaled a -0.3 fWAR in just 8 games, but even if you discount them, we were below average, but pretty close to average.

 

As I've opined, before, I think most catchers reach their peaks on defense after age 29, 30 or even later. McGuire is 28 and soon to be 29. He was injured for part of 2023, but put up some decent fWARs in 2021 (1.4) and 2022 (1.6), while never playing in more than 90 games. That is pretty impressive. fangraphs has not been kind to the 27 year old Wong, He has a 0.8 fWAR in 159 games in MLB, career.

 

bWAR had this for 2023:

2.2 Wong (same as Casas)

-0.1 Alfaro

-0.1 CHamilton

-0.3 McGuire

 

I think we might get to about average at Catcher in 2024, both on O and D. Just my opinion and certainly could be homer biased.

 

Let's start naming catchers and see who peaked after 28.

 

Tek - yes

Tony Pena - no

Sandy Alomar Jr - no

Yadier Molina - yes

David Ross - no

Rich Gedman - no

Russell Martin - no

Salvador Perez - no

Posada - yes

Posey - no

Mauer - no

Benito Santiago - no

Ivan Rodriguez - no

Brian McCann - no

Piazza - no

Wilson Ramos - no

Martin Maldonado - no

Realmuto - yes

Grandal - no

Christian Vazquez - no