A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Probably, he only won five games in the postseason, and the Rangers won all six that he started.

 

Texas also made some summer moves -- like trading for Montgomery, who won also won key games in the playoffs.

 

Not that the Red Sox couldn't make a big trade at the deadline -- which they've only done never so far in the Bloom Era.

 

The Rangers also made a big fall move -- promoting Evan Carter. That's the kind of move Red Sox fans are told is the one reason to keep watching...

 

One has to wonder if the instant success of the Rangers is a reason the Sox are NOT going all in on this offseason. They clearly showed you can win while defying every convention.

 

Did they have an ace? No. Eovaldi, as good as he is, is not an ace. He probably has the talent, but he lacks the durability. deGrom is in anyone's defintiion, but he barely pitched so he was a non-factor. In fact, the Rangers' rotation was rather bland last year from a big name standpoint, featuring a few Sox retreads and some journeyman. Dane Dunning lead the team in IP. Dane Dunning!

 

At least their starters were 7th in MLB in fWAR. That's much better than their crappy bullpen. The Rangers bullpen finished 23rd in MLB in fWAR, ten places behind the Red Sox.

 

The Rangers did have a very good offense and defense last year, especially the defense. Their star players were largely a cast of unknowns like the twice-DFAd Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, and Josh Jung. Sure they had some stars, headlined by Corey Seager. But Seager actually played fewer games on the WSC Rangers than he did on the 68 win team.

 

The Rangers won with good hitting and very good defense. This is not a formula anyone ever talks about for a championship. Good SP without an ace, no bullpen, and top tier hitting and defense. Is this the new formula?

[mvp 78]

Texas' rotation may have been bland, but they were relatively healthy.

 

Gray, Dunning, Heaney and Perez didn't miss significant time. Eovaldi had his normal year and it wasn't a huge surprise that deGrom was sidelined. Having 5 guys that can just take the ball competently most days plays a big role in just racking up the fWAR.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Cora confirms Yoshida will get the lion’s share of DH at-bats.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Cora said Rafaela will be the CF if he makes the team, but TBD if he opens in AAA or the big leagues. “The defensive game is elite. It’s a game-changer.”

[moonslav59]

@alexspeier

Cora said Rafaela will be the CF if he makes the team, but TBD if he opens in AAA or the big leagues. “The defensive game is elite. It’s a game-changer.”

 

Pretty much how most of us view him. His ability to play SS and 2B, helps, but he's such a great defensive CF'er, he should only play IF in emergencies.

[moonslav59]

No one made projections with Montgomery in mind. And if the Rangers didn't get out to a good enough start, they don't go out and get Montgomery.

 

While Eovaldi is a good pitcher, is he really a guy you look at and think "he can take this 68 win team to a title in one year"?

 

Heaney is the more-frequently injured version of Eovaldi.

 

So do the Sox have any pitvher who is as good as a healthy Eovaldi? I think they do have one in the rotation already...

 

I think many viewed the rangers as better than a 68 win team going into 2023, even before adding Nate.

 

Not many view the Sox as better than they were, last year, before any additions.

[mvp 78]

Pretty much how most of us view him. His ability to play SS and 2B, helps, but he's such a great defensive CF'er, he should only play IF in emergencies.

 

Yeah, I heard a scouting report this offseason that his IF defense was good, but inconsistent. He just has a natural ability to play OF. I wouldn't risk him getting taken out at SS.

[mvp 78]

I think many viewed the rangers as better than a 68 win team going into 2023, even before adding Nate.

 

Not many view the Sox as better than they were, last year, before any additions.

 

Rangers: add Semien, Seager, deGrom and Eovaldi (plus a host of starting pitchers) over the course of two offseasons

 

How in the world did they get good??? It's a mystery to me!

[notin]

Texas' rotation may have been bland, but they were relatively healthy.

 

Gray, Dunning, Heaney and Perez didn't miss significant time. Eovaldi had his normal year and it wasn't a huge surprise that deGrom was sidelined. Having 5 guys that can just take the ball competently most days plays a big role in just racking up the fWAR.

 

 

 

I have come to the conclusion in recent years that pitcher health trumps pitcher quality. Unless you have some serious depth, which he Sox are sorely lacking for starters...

[notin]

Rangers: add Semien, Seager, deGrom and Eovaldi (plus a host of starting pitchers) over the course of two offseasons

 

How in the world did they get good??? It's a mystery to me!

 

So sometimes when you sign players, the impact isn't immediate? Don't Story and Yoshida get that same opportunity?

[notin]

I think many viewed the rangers as better than a 68 win team going into 2023, even before adding Nate.

 

Not many view the Sox as better than they were, last year, before any additions.

 

Better than a 68 win team based on what?

[mvp 78]

I have come to the conclusion in recent years that pitcher health trumps pitcher quality. Unless you have some serious depth, which he Sox are sorely lacking for starters...

 

Agreed. All 4 Sox WS teams had lucky health years and were able to replace one injury via trade (Peavy/Eovaldi) or callup (Lester/Buchholz).

[mvp 78]

So sometimes when you sign players, the impact isn't immediate? Don't Story and Yoshida get that same opportunity?

 

Yes, but the Sox need to actually give the team a chance to win by adding to the rotation! If Story and Yoshida work out, this team is still only half baked (2/3d's?)!

[notin]

Yeah, I heard a scouting report this offseason that his IF defense was good, but inconsistent. He just has a natural ability to play OF. I wouldn't risk him getting taken out at SS.

 

Having him in CF is a huge upgrade defensively over Duran. The rumors had the Sox shopping Duran, but no word on what has been offered if anything...

[Bellhorn04]

The Rangers won with good hitting and very good defense. This is not a formula anyone ever talks about for a championship. Good SP without an ace, no bullpen, and top tier hitting and defense. Is this the new formula?

 

What happened is that Eovaldi and Montgomery pitched like aces in the postseason. Much better than the 'real aces' like Kershaw and Verlander generally pitch in the postseason...

 

And Montgomery did in fact pitch like an ace in 2023. He was T9 in bWAR and T12 in fWAR.

[notin]

Yes, but the Sox need to actually give the team a chance to win by adding to the rotation! If Story and Yoshida work out, this team is still only half baked (2/3d's?)!

 

The Rangers last year for 7.9 fWAR from Eovaldi, Dunning, Gray, Heaney and Perez as starters. Some numbers got cut a bit short by mid-year additios of Montgomery and Scherzer.

 

The Sox got 7.0 fWAR from Crawford, Bello, Houck, Paxton and Pivetta. Again, most of these guys did not start all year. (Only Bello did.)

 

The Sox lost Sale (2.1 fWAR) but added Giolito (1.0).

 

Right now, Roster Resource has the Sox starting Giolito, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford and Houck. I think the goal should be to get Houck back into the bullpen permanently. I'm just not so sure the imposed budget agrees with me.

 

That still leaves what I thought was their biggest problem - defense. Rafaela and Story represent big upgrades, but doubtful they are enough...

Edited February 13, 2024 by notin

[notin]

What happened is that Eovaldi and Montgomery pitched like aces in the postseason. Much better than the 'real aces' like Kershaw and Verlander generally pitch in the postseason...

 

And Montgomery did in fact pitch like an ace in 2023. He was T9 in bWAR and T12 in fWAR.

 

But how they did in the regular season got them to the postseason in the first place. And Montgomery - ace or not - only pitched or 11 games for Texas. They improved by 22 wins, and did the overwhelming bulk of it without Montgomery. Heck, without those improvements, they do not go out and get Montgomery.

 

And do you know of a site that gives bWAR beyond the top ten leaderboard on B-R? I don't like how difficult it is to get comps for that stat...

[moonslav59]

Better than a 68 win team based on what?

 

Based on the expectations that many of the players they had, especially those signed before '22 were better than their number showed.

 

In short, based on my expectations.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. All 4 Sox WS teams had lucky health years and were able to replace one injury via trade (Peavy/Eovaldi) or callup (Lester/Buchholz).

 

Yes.

 

Almost all our WS seasons saw 4+ pitchers with 28+ GS.

[notin]

Based on the expectations that many of the players they had, especially those signed before '22 were better than their number showed.

 

In short, based on my expectations.

 

Didn't you also at one point expect the Sox to win about 86 games or so?

 

Hey I think I had them winning at least 84..

[mvp 78]

Having him in CF is a huge upgrade defensively over Duran. The rumors had the Sox shopping Duran, but no word on what has been offered if anything...

 

I'd take non-40 man prospects back.

[notin]

I'd take non-40 man prospects back.

 

I'd like a rotation upgrade, but I think that would require two teams, making it very complicated...

[mvp 78]

The Rangers last year for 7.9 fWAR from Eovaldi, Dunning, Gray, Heaney and Perez as starters. Some numbers got cut a bit short by mid-year additios of Montgomery and Scherzer.

 

The Sox got 7.0 fWAR from Crawford, Bello, Houck, Paxton and Pivetta. Again, most of these guys did not start all year. (Only Bello did.)

 

The Sox lost Sale (2.1 fWAR) but added Giolito (1.0).

 

Right now, Roster Resource has the Sox starting Giolito, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford and Houck. I think the goal should be to get Houck back into the bullpen permanently. I'm just not so sure the imposed budget agrees with me.

 

That still leaves what I thought was their biggest problem - defense. Rafaela and Story represent big upgrades, but doubtful they are enough...

 

Monty + deGrom + Max = 4.4 fWAR

 

Sox have room for improvement with the current rotation, but adding an arm would be a huge help.

[mvp 78]

Defense:

Casas should be a little better as he improved defensively in the 2nd half

LF should be better because Masa will get more DH reps

SS is going to be much better if Story stays healthy

CF depends on who Cora puts out there

2B may be a work in progress, but should be passable

RF may be a downgrade depending on who is out there, but I think Abreu and O'Neilll are as good defensively as Verdugo

[moonslav59]

Defense:

Casas should be a little better as he improved defensively in the 2nd half

LF should be better because Masa will get more DH reps

SS is going to be much better if Story stays healthy

CF depends on who Cora puts out there

2B may be a work in progress, but should be passable

RF may be a downgrade depending on who is out there, but I think Abreu and O'Neilll are as good defensively as Verdugo

 

2B "passable" is much better than 2023's 2B defense.

[harmony]

Rangers: add Semien, Seager, deGrom and Eovaldi (plus a host of starting pitchers) over the course of two offseasons

 

How in the world did they get good??? It's a mystery to me!

FWIW FanGraphs gives the Texas Rangers a 1.7 percent chance of repeating as World Series champions while giving the Red Sox a 1.3 percent chance of winning the 2024 World Series:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

The Rangers are assigned a 36.4 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and a 10.7 percent chance of winning the AL West.

 

The Red Sox are projected with an 82-80 record, a 29.2 percent chance of earning a postseason slot and a 7.0 percent chance of winning the AL East.

[moonslav59]

Didn't you also at one point expect the Sox to win about 86 games or so?

 

Hey I think I had them winning at least 84..

 

We all are just giving our opinions.

 

I have no problem admitting I have been wrong, very often.

[mvp 78]

FWIW FanGraphs gives the Texas Rangers a 1.7 percent chance of repeating as World Series champions while giving the Red Sox a 1.3 percent chance of winning the 2024 World Series:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

The Rangers are assigned a 36.4 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and a 10.7 percent chance of winning the AL West.

 

The Red Sox are projected with an 82-80 record, a 29.2 percent chance of earning a postseason slot and a 7.0 percent chance of winning the AL East.

 

Because they no longer have Jordan Montgomery!

 

The Mets and Reds are more likely to make the postseason than the Sox. Sox are considered to have the 4th hardest Strength of Schedule (A's, Rox, Nats), but iron sharpens iron.

[moonslav59]

Because they no longer have Jordan Montgomery!

 

The Mets and Reds are more likely to make the postseason than the Sox. Sox are considered to have the 4th hardest Strength of Schedule (A's, Rox, Nats), but iron sharpens iron.

 

It would be interesting to see what our chances would be in other divisions, but it is what it is.

 

Other than the Yanks dropping by a lot, last year, and nearly overtaking us for last place, most of our division foes have not been in major decline.

 

2022>2023 Wins

83>101 BAL

86>99 TBR

92>89 TOR

99>82 NYY

78>78 BOS

 

We can't really count on staying the same and moving up to 4th place.

 

[notin]

Because they no longer have Jordan Montgomery!

 

The Mets and Reds are more likely to make the postseason than the Sox. Sox are considered to have the 4th hardest Strength of Schedule (A's, Rox, Nats), but iron sharpens iron.

 

The NL Central could be a joke this year. The Reds and the Cubs already look like the top two spots, especially if Milwaukee cannot make up any ground after losing 4 starting pitchers.

 

St. Louis might be able to bounce back after all! They certainly picked the right to to go get pitching...