A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[harmony]

Pom poms are in order. 😀

[moonslav59]

Pom poms are in order. 

 

As noted, these were meant to be as optimistic as possible, within reason. No doubt, much of this won't happen, but is any single optimistic projection unreasonable?

 

One could easily come up with a reasonable but pessimistic post that might scare the bejesus out of any Sox fan.

Edited February 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[harmony]

As noted, these were meant to be as optimistic as possible, within reason. No doubt, much of this won't happen, but is any single optimistic projection unreasonable?

 

One could easily come up with a reasonable but pessimistic post that might scare the bejesus out of any Sox fan.

Count this poster among the fans who prefer optimism to pessimism.

[moonslav59]

Count this poster among the fans who prefer optimism to pessimism.

 

I've felt worse about many a Sox team, around this time of year, including some this century.

[Bellhorn04]

As noted, these were meant to be as optimistic as possible, within reason. No doubt, much of this won't happen, but is any single optimistic projection unreasonable?

 

One could easily come up with a reasonable but pessimistic post that might scare the bejesus out of any Sox fan.

 

None of the individual projections are totally unrealistic. A scenario in which everyone hits those optimistic numbers isn't very realistic.

[Bellhorn04]

Read them and weep? The sox are predicted to be 9 games worse than the yanks and you're happy?

 

I'm pretty happy with these projections, yes, because:

 

1) They suggest that the gap between us and the other AL East powers isn't insurmountable.

2) Projections always leave a lot of room for error.

[moonslav59]

None of the individual projections are totally unrealistic. A scenario in which everyone hits those optimistic numbers isn't very realistic.

 

Indeed, and I seriously doubt even 75% of those optimistic projections will happen. Maybe 50% is being optimistic about the optimistic projections.

 

I do wonder how many we will need to happen to be relevant in 2023. I'm thinking if 33% come true or very near true and another 33% come somewhat close, we'll make the playoffs. The big two if, IMO, are Sale and Yoshida. Those two, alone could make major impacts.

 

We all know how fickle RP'ers can be, but it's nice to have one that looks better than good, on paper, but seeing it happen in 2023 is another thing. I think optimisim over the pen is fully justified.

 

The rotation is a grab bag of what ifs, but there are a lot to choose from, including up and coming Bello, Mata, Walter and Murphy and sophomore hopes like Crawford and Wink.

 

I'm probably more hopeful about our catchers than just about anyone else, and we'll have to wait and see the influence they will have on our pitching staff. Since much of our staff is new, too, an adjustment period would have been needed, even if we had kept Vaz & Plawecki.

 

Casas, Mondesi and some upcoming prospects might make a big difference.

 

Duvall & Turner need to beat the age curve to help this team.

 

Verdugo and Kike have shown flashes of plus play, but haven't always shown it.

 

Yes, we need a lot to come together, all at once, but most teams have similar situations at multiple positions: they just have more "givens" than we do, which, of course, is why they are ranked ahead of us.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty happy with these projections, yes, because:

 

1) They suggest that the gap between us and the other AL East powers isn't insurmountable.

2) Projections always leave a lot of room for error.

 

A lot comes down to expectations vs hopes.

 

I doubt any Sox fan expected us to be ranked ahead of the Yanks before this winter began. I'm sure many hoped we'd have done more, me included, but my expectation was to get better- a lot better. Is 6-9 games better good enough? To most Sox fans, no.

 

Before the winter began, I had higher hopes we'd be looking at maybe an 8-12 game improvement over 2022, but 6-10 seems more likely, to me. We've left a lot of cash on the table, but with incentives and deadline deals possible, maybe it's not as much as it appears to be. I feel like an Andrus and Chafin signings would have got us closer to 9-12 more wins, but I like just about every move made, this winter- one by one. I had hoped for a bigger splash here and there: more quality over quantity, as I like to say, but having so many choices has it's advantages, too.

 

Within the last 12 months, we have made 3 long term signings: Devers (1 + 10), Story (6) and Yoshida (5.) We had gone about 3 years without one. (Sale was extended in March 2019.)

 

This winter, we also added way more 2 year-deals, instead of the pattern of 1 year deals we've seen since the Sale extension. While 2 year deals don't really instill much of a sense of continuity, it does offer more stability in the roster as so many prospects are looking to join the 26, this year and next.

[Bellhorn04]

I do wonder how many we will need to happen to be relevant in 2023. I'm thinking if 33% come true or very near true and another 33% come somewhat close, we'll make the playoffs. The big two if, IMO, are Sale and Yoshida. Those two, alone could make major impacts.

 

Agreed, Sale and Yoshida are huge.

 

Paxton could be big too.

 

Then Bello and Casas.

 

I guess we're working on a list of "most crucial X factors"...

[moonslav59]

Agreed, Sale and Yoshida are huge.

 

Paxton could be big too.

 

Then Bello and Casas.

 

I guess we're working on a list of "most crucial X factors"...

 

This is the part I find most interesting and in a way, exciting about the 2023 Sox:

 

Could it be possible that Sale & Paxton start 5 games each, Yoshida hits .740 and Bello & Casas do nothing better than average, but we still get a bunch of other things right and hit paydirt?

 

Devers has a career year.

Kike plays like second half of '21.

Turner plays like second half of '22.

Mondesi busts out in his walk year.

Duvall repeats 2019.

Kluber improves on '22.

Jansen, Martin, Schreiber and Houck just pitch like 2022.

Whitlock and Pivetta give us 30 solid starts, each.

Arroyo stays healthy and hit .his norm of .730.

Dugo plays more like earlier in his career.

One or two from Mata, Walter, Crawford, Wink and Murphy shine in '23.

 

We could strike out for the top 5 you listed and still be okay.

[mvp 78]

Hearing a lot of speculation on who might be in next year's sweepstakes for Ohtani. Favorites are NY, NY, and all the West Coast teams.

 

Any combination of reasons for him coming to Boston are said to include (not necessarily in this order)... 1. improvement by the Red Sox, 2. New Balance incentives, 3. Yoshida and other potential recruits (Yamamoto, Sasaki, Murakami, or the next star of the WBC), 4. New GM encouraged by ownership to spend on #3 and Shohei.

 

What else you got?

 

He'll go to whoever gives him the most $$$. That won't be John Henry. It has nothing to do with the CBO or GM.

[mvp 78]

$850K. He could be cut.

 

But it doesn’t matter who we agree is the 26th man. Heck, Chang might be further up the ladder than that with an injury or two…

 

Chang is probably injury insurance for Mondesi and Arroyo. Mondesi is not ready for Opening Day and there is no current timetable for him. They could probably pass Chang through waivers if they have to at some point anyway.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com has 27 players listed for the 26 man roster with Mondesi on the IL and Story on the 60 day IL.

 

I'm not sure we start the season with the allowed 14 pitchers, but we might. SP has Mills and Bleier ranked 13th and 14th, and since Mills has options remaining, he could be the odd man out. If they stick with 14 pitchers, I think Duran would be the odd man out, since we have Refsnyder as the 4th OF'er and Kike available in emergencies.

 

When Mondesi comes back, I think we will have to go with 13 pitchers.

 

Can anyone else squeeze their way onto the 26 without any injuries creating an open slot?

 

P: Crawford, Mata, Wink, Kelly, Ort, Walter or Murphy?

C: Alfaro (would need to be added to the 40, first)

1B: Dalbec (2B/SS?)

2B: E Valdez (1B/DH)

IF: Hamilton, Goodrum (not on 40)

OF: Rafaela, Tapia (not on 40)

 

I like our depth better than the last few years, especially with pitching, and when Mondesi gets healthy, our 26 man roster looks pretty deep.

 

Bench: Wong ©, Refsnyder (OF), Arroyo & Chang (IF)

 

With Kike able to play OF, very well, and Turner as a more than capable back up corner IF'er, I think our bench will be an asset.

 

Our pen looks 5-6 deep with promising guys like Kelly, Bleier and Mills ready to replace Braiser.

 

Our rotation is the big question mark, and in this area I always prefer quality to quantity, but quantity does have its advantages. I just hope we don't have to cycle through 3-4 failures to finally find the key piece we need. We can't afford trial by error having too many errors. Making the playoffs will be hard enough, as it is.

 

We look to have 6 SP'ers, who all have past success or a promising future:

Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta & Paxton. We may even start with a 6 man rotation, if the miracle of 100% rotation health occurs, this spring. What excites me about our starters is the solid depth. I may be wearing pink glasses, here, but I still see hopes for sophomore successes by Crawford & Winckowski. I also think Mata might be a wild card that shocks some fans. He may end up being in the pen, but I'm looking forwards to seeing him in the bigs. Walter and Murphy might be long shots, but both have show some long stretches of success in the minors. Walter's 75: 7 and 86:14 K:BB rates over the last 2 seasons are very encouraging. Murphy had a 2.35 ERA on July 23rd before falling off a cliff. He might be better suited for the pen.

 

I count 19-21 pitchers who show enough promise or history to think they could be plusses in 2023:

 

Sale

Kluber

Paxton

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

Crawford

Winckowski

Mata

Walter

 

Jansen

Martin

Houck

Schreiber

Rodriguez

Bleier

Brasier

Mills

Kelly

Murphy

Ort

 

Call ne a homer, but this quantity over quality is starting to grow on me, as much of the quantity shows signs of quality, too.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Chang is probably injury insurance for Mondesi and Arroyo. Mondesi is not ready for Opening Day and there is no current timetable for him. They could probably pass Chang through waivers if they have to at some point anyway.

 

That makes sense. We can't carry 4 middle IF'ers on the 26, unless Kike moves to the OF (injury or Yoshida to DH?)

 

Kike

Mondesi

Arroyo

Chang

 

None have options remaining.

 

Hamilton & EValdez in AAA and on the 40.

[mvp 78]

Call ne a homer, but this quantity over quality is starting to grow on me, as much of the quantity shows signs of quality, too.

 

Every team has the same quantity of players on their roster. Sox aren't hoarding additional players. The bullpen looks ok, but the young arms that came up last season need to perform better if the older arms break down.

 

That being said, Mills is the easy drop from that roster.

 

If this team is playing well, midseason additions of Story and Rafaela could solidify the offensive question marks we currently have up the middle.

 

C McGuire/Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Kiké

3B Devers

RF Duvall/Verdugo

CF Rafaela

LF Yoshida

DH Turner

[mvp 78]

That makes sense. We can't carry 4 middle IF'ers on the 26, unless Kike moves to the OF (injury or Yoshida to DH?)

 

Kike

Mondesi

Arroyo

Chang

 

None have options remaining.

 

Hamilton & EValdez in AAA and on the 40.

 

Chang plays 1B and 3B as well, he's not just 2B/SS profile. He's actually played MORE innings at 1B and 3B than 2B or SS.

[moonslav59]

Every team has the same quantity of players on their roster. Sox aren't hoarding additional players. The bullpen looks ok, but the young arms that came up last season need to perform better if the older arms break down.

 

That being said, Mills is the easy drop from that roster.

 

If this team is playing well, midseason additions of Story and Rafaela could solidify the offensive question marks we currently have up the middle.

 

C McGuire/Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Kiké

3B Devers

RF Duvall/Verdugo

CF Rafaela

LF Yoshida

DH Turner

 

You honestly don't know what I mean by "quantity?"

 

It's the skill levels of the depth that has improved.

 

After the top 10 pitchers, we now have this as the next 10:

Crawford

Winckowski

Mata

Walter

Rodriguez

Bleier

Brasier

Mills

Kelly

Murphy/Ort

 

Our 11-20 in 2022 (by IP):

4.71 Bello (57 IP)

5.47 Davis (54 IP)

3.73 Sawamura (51)

3.83 Strahm (45) arguably in our top 10

5.13 Danish (40)

4.31 Barnes (40)

4.23 Diekman (38) traded away

6.35 Ort (28)

5.84 Robles (25)

11.29 Seabold (18)

 

2021

3.40 Taylor (48)

3.16 Sale (43) arguably top 10 without injury lowering IP

3.38 DHern 40

5.85 Valdez 40

6.03 Andriese 37 (cut)

3.60 Robles 24 (added at deadline)

3.70 Rios 24

4.95 Workman 20

4.86 Davis 17 (added at deadline)

6.59 Brice 14

 

2020 (The top 10 was scary, too: 1 Perez, 3 Weber, 4 Valdez, 5 Mazza, 6 Godley, 7 Brewer, 8 Brasier)

5.95 Brice 20 IP

0.53 Houck 17

5.74 Osich 16 (traded)

7.07 Covey 14

7.71 Kickham 14

4.73 Stock 13

9.45 Walden 13

15.55 Hart 11

1.80 Pivetta 10 (added at deadline)

5.59 Hembree 10 (traded)/18.69 MHall 9

 

Even 2019... Brasier, Brewer, Cashner, Taylor, Weber, Johnson, Hembree, J Smith, DHerny, Lakins, Shawaryn, Thornburg, Chacin

 

It's the quality of the quantity that has changed.

 

Maybe the strength of the depth came at the expense of the quality of the top 10, as the "wealth" was more spread out. Maybe this bottom 10 will end up worse than recent years. Maybe I'm just a homer for seeing improvement in our pitching depth.

 

Do you think our pitching depth was better in 2019, 2020, 2021 or 2022?

 

 

[moonslav59]

Chang plays 1B and 3B as well, he's not just 2B/SS profile. He's actually played MORE innings at 1B and 3B than 2B or SS.

 

True, and Arroyo & Kike can play 3B and 1B, too.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

True, and Arroyo & Kike can play 3B and 1B, too.

 

And Bloom really likes moving pieces around the board...

[mvp 78]

You honestly don't know what I mean by "quantity?"

 

It's the skill levels of the depth that has improved.

 

After the top 10 pitchers, we now have this as the next 10:

Crawford

Winckowski

Mata

Walter

Rodriguez

Bleier

Brasier

Mills

Kelly

Murphy/Ort

 

I understand what you mean, I don't agree with it. Aside from Mata and Bleier, the guys you have listed don't generate much confidence in me. Kelly is ok, but is still largely unproven at the MLB level.

 

Crawford/Winckowski are probably just bullpen arms, but neither saw their stuff tick up in the pen last year. Maybe just AAAA guys?

Joely is hoping that his FIP is more indicative of his future performance, but he's still a career 4.50 ERA bullpen guy. Big whoop.

Ort/Brasier/Mills are DFA'able IMO.

Murphy/Walter need to at least show value at AAA before we can count on them for anything.

 

Again, what good is this numbers game, really? Is it THAT much better or just moving deck chairs? Changing guys on the margins of the 40 man didn't help the team in 2020 or 2022. Arguably, it wasn't the key to 2021's success either as the guys they brought up from the bottom of the 40 man all were terrible.

[mvp 78]

True, and Arroyo & Kike can play 3B and 1B, too.

 

 

 

Without a SS, why would you have Kiké play either position though? On this roster, Kiké is SS/CF only.

[mvp 78]

Also, Arroyo only has 51 innings at 1B. I'm not hanging my hat on that.

[moonslav59]

I understand what you mean, I don't agree with it. Aside from Mata and Bleier, the guys you have listed don't generate much confidence in me. Kelly is ok, but is still largely unproven at the MLB level.

 

Crawford/Winckowski are probably just bullpen arms, but neither saw their stuff tick up in the pen last year. Maybe just AAAA guys?

Joely is hoping that his FIP is more indicative of his future performance, but he's still a career 4.50 ERA bullpen guy. Big whoop.

Ort/Brasier/Mills are DFA'able IMO.

Murphy/Walter need to at least show value at AAA before we can count on them for anything.

 

Again, what good is this numbers game, really? Is it THAT much better or just moving deck chairs? Changing guys on the margins of the 40 man didn't help the team in 2020 or 2022. Arguably, it wasn't the key to 2021's success either as the guys they brought up from the bottom of the 40 man all were terrible.

 

We disagree, then. I think our current 11-20 pitchers are significantly better than any team since maybe 2018. It's not so much that they all look very promising, but maybe more about just how bad it was in recent years. While you might not think the 11-20 ranked pitchers make much of an impact, here is a look at the IP from the top 10 vs the depth, in recent years:

 

2022: Top 10 IP/the rest

955/475 (33%- granted, some were scrub IP)

 

2021:

1050/370 (26%)

 

2020:

316/218 (42% WOW!)

 

2019:

950/520 (35%)

 

[moonslav59]

Without a SS, why would you have Kiké play either position though? On this roster, Kiké is SS/CF only.

 

I could see Mondesi at SS and Kike in CF, if any of these guys get hurt or need a rest:

 

Duval

Dugo

Yoshida

Turner (Yoshida to DH)

Casas (Turner to 1B/Yoshida to DH)

Devers (Turner to 3B/Yoshida to DH)

 

My guess is, they have Mondesi play 2B, but if he and Arroyo are healthy and playing well, we might even see Arroyo at 2B, Mondesi at SS and Kike back in CF for certain situations.

 

I do agree, though. Kike is the SS. They will likely avoid jerking him around.

[notin]

True, and Arroyo & Kike can play 3B and 1B, too.

 

 

 

And Turner can as well…

[notin]

Also, Arroyo only has 51 innings at 1B. I'm not hanging my hat on that.

 

And one injury…

[moonslav59]

And Turner can as well…

 

He is why I listed those 4 as primarily middle IF'er.

[notin]

Without a SS, why would you have Kiké play either position though? On this roster, Kiké is SS/CF only.

 

Hopefully Mondesi will be ready soon to get back on the field so he can injure himself again…

[mvp 78]

We disagree, then. I think our current 11-20 pitchers are significantly better than any team since maybe 2018. It's not so much that they all look very promising, but maybe more about just how bad it was in recent years. While you might not think the 11-20 ranked pitchers make much of an impact, here is a look at the IP from the top 10 vs the depth, in recent years:

 

2022: Top 10 IP/the rest

955/475 (33%- granted, some were scrub IP)

 

2021:

1050/370 (26%)

 

2020:

316/218 (42% WOW!)

 

2019:

950/520 (35%)

 

 

What is a reasonable % expectation? 2021 seems like an aberration as none of the starting rotation got injured.

[mvp 78]

And Turner can as well…

 

He has more career innings at SS and hasn't played there since 2016. Is he even passable at 1B?