2022 Yankees Regular Season Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree they have to sign him, but you massively overstate the case. He’s not a Hall of Famer.

 

Fun side note - once Judge hits his next home run, Babe Ruth’s 60 HRs in 1927 will be the NINTH best season total in MLB history. But it will remain the highest total for a Hall of Famer…

 

He's on a hall of fame pace for sure. If you extrapolate out the 2020 shortened season, his WAR for 6 years is around 37. That's a 6 WAR per season pace. If you look at another hulking slugger from the past, Dave Winfield, he capped his career off as a 64 WAR player over 22 seasons. Judge is demolishing that pace.

[moonslav59]

He's on a hall of fame pace for sure. If you extrapolate out the 2020 shortened season, his WAR for 6 years is around 37. That's a 6 WAR per season pace. If you look at another hulking slugger from the past, Dave Winfield, he capped his career off as a 64 WAR player over 22 seasons. Judge is demolishing that pace.

 

That's a big "if."

 

You know how many players have been on pace to make the HOF, then did not?

 

My guess is more players than are in the Hall.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's a big "if."

 

You know how many players have been on pace to make the HOF, then did not?

 

My guess is more players than are in the Hall.

 

4 more years of 6 WAR pace or if he has a 10 year career after and averages 2.5WAR and he is in. 60WAR seems to be the new threshold

[moonslav59]

4 more years of 6 WAR pace or if he has a 10 year career after and averages 2.5WAR and he is in. 60WAR seems to be the new threshold

 

Many players have need just "4 more years."

[dgalehouse]

Judge obviously needs more really good years to get to Cooperstown. But he is surely on the right track. And along with the home runs , he is a real ballplayer. The play he made on Pham last night was outstanding. Yankee fans would go berserk if they let him get away.

[dgalehouse]

I think Chapman has become a serious head case. Why did he keep throwing over to first with Martinez on ? Even J.D. looked at Rizzo like " what is this guy doing ? I'm not going to run." He had a rookie left hand hitter up. He should have blown Casas away. Instead he lost focus and walked him.

[bkzwhitestrican]

I think Chapman has become a serious head case. Why did he keep throwing over to first with Martinez on ? Even J.D. looked at Rizzo like " what is this guy doing ? I'm not going to run." He had a rookie left hand hitter up. He should have blown Casas away. Instead he lost focus and walked him.

 

It's been a weird year for him. He started the season going 12 straight appearances without allowing a run, then allowed runs in his next 6 consecutive appearances, then went on the IL, came back (and re-visited the IL because of a tattoo infection) and has been really good some games and utterly terrible others. Considering his playoff track record with the Yanks I'd consider leaving him off the roster.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chapman has sacrificed RPM on his heater to keep his velo up. His fastball is now hittable. He's not good enough to be anything more than a primarily fastball pitcher. He's done.

[notin]

I think Chapman has become a serious head case. Why did he keep throwing over to first with Martinez on ? Even J.D. looked at Rizzo like " what is this guy doing ? I'm not going to run." He had a rookie left hand hitter up. He should have blown Casas away. Instead he lost focus and walked him.

 

I don’t think he’s head case.

 

He’s 34 years old with 13 seasons and 650 IP on his arm, along with who knows how many injuries to how many muscles, joints and tendons. He no longer averages 101 mph and peaks at 105. He’s still got some serious heat, but not the same heat he’s familiar with and he knows it. And it probably hurts somewhere every time he tries to dial it up and it takes longer to feel better each time.

 

He’s just getting old for a pitcher. Happens to all of them at some point…

[jacksonianmarch]

He also isn’t a novelty anymore. Everyone throws 97 now with movement. His isn’t moving

[notin]

He's on a hall of fame pace for sure. If you extrapolate out the 2020 shortened season, his WAR for 6 years is around 37. That's a 6 WAR per season pace. If you look at another hulking slugger from the past, Dave Winfield, he capped his career off as a 64 WAR player over 22 seasons. Judge is demolishing that pace.

 

Or, he isn’t.

 

His 35.7 fWAR before age 31 ranks 175th in the last 90 years, just ahead of Darrell Porter, Ryan Braun, JD Drew and Curtis Granderson. He trails Matt Williams, Christian Yelich, and Lenny Dykstra in this regard.

 

He’s too old and missed too much time to last long enough for the Hall, unlike Winfield who also did bash 3,000 career hits, which at the time was automatic ticket to Cooperstown…

Edited September 25, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

Or, he isn’t.

 

His 35.7 fWAR before age 31 ranks 175th in the last 90 years, just ahead of Darrell Porter, Ryan Braun, JD Drew and Curtis Granderson. He trails Matt Williams, Christian Yelich, and Lenny Dykstra in this regard.

 

He’s too old and missed too much time to last long enough for the Hall, unlike Winfield who also did bash 3,000 career hits, which at the time was automatic ticket to Cooperstown…

 

He has only played over 148 games once, back in 2017. He will likely pass 148, this year, but he only has 3 seasons over 112 games and 4 over 102. He'll turn 31, early next year. It's hard to imagine him improving on his injury history.

[notin]

He has only played over 148 games once, back in 2017. He will likely pass 148, this year, but he only has 3 seasons over 112 games and 4 over 102. He'll turn 31, early next year. It's hard to imagine him improving on his injury history.

 

That’s why if he does hit the market (which I doubt), I hope Bloom passes. Players who struggled to stay healthy in their 20s rarely fare better in their 30s…

[jacksonianmarch]

He has only played over 148 games once, back in 2017. He will likely pass 148, this year, but he only has 3 seasons over 112 games and 4 over 102. He'll turn 31, early next year. It's hard to imagine him improving on his injury history.

 

That's a pretty ignorant quote and you know it. 148 games is a whole shitload of games. He's done 155, 148 and 148 in 3 of his six years. One of his years was a covid year (where he missed 20 games in admittedly), but in full seasons, he has crossed 140 games 60% of the time

[moonslav59]

That's a pretty ignorant quote and you know it. 148 games is a whole shitload of games. He's done 155, 148 and 148 in 3 of his six years. One of his years was a covid year (where he missed 20 games in admittedly), but in full seasons, he has crossed 140 games 60% of the time

 

That's not great. 60% crossing 140 games. It's probably not even average for good players not benched due to lack of production.

 

It's not as bad as I made it sound, but "ignorant" is a bit strong.

 

With his body type, I'd worry about even reaching 60% going forward.

 

Plus, in 2016, he was called up in August and played 120 games between the minors and majors.

 

He's no Stanton, but he's no Lou Gehrig, either.

Edited September 26, 2022 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Trends are important too. They fired their strength and conditioning team after 2020 and he's responded with two very durable years. But yes, he will eventually be an injury prone DH as every player eventually becomes. The reason why the Yanks need to sell out for him is that they are in window. Their pitching is set up strong for next year and their lineup needs him as a stabilizing force as there is some youth coming through. He is worth more to NY as well because he thrives there, while many players shrink in the pinstripes. I said before he doesn't see $300 mil. I was wrong. He should easily surpass that as the Yanks have no choice but to pony up for him

[moonslav59]

Trends are important too. They fired their strength and conditioning team after 2020 and he's responded with two very durable years. But yes, he will eventually be an injury prone DH as every player eventually becomes. The reason why the Yanks need to sell out for him is that they are in window. Their pitching is set up strong for next year and their lineup needs him as a stabilizing force as there is some youth coming through. He is worth more to NY as well because he thrives there, while many players shrink in the pinstripes. I said before he doesn't see $300 mil. I was wrong. He should easily surpass that as the Yanks have no choice but to pony up for him

 

And, if the Mets offer $325M?

[jacksonianmarch]

And, if the Mets offer $325M?

 

If the Yanks short change Judge and he goes elsewhere, there will be consternation beyond belief. I think the Yanks realize he is a must sign player

[Bellhorn04]

Boone strikes again? Bottom of 10th, man on second, two outs, Vlad up. Boone elects to pitch to him instead of issuing IBB, which seemed to be a no-brainer since Vlad is the Jays best hitter and it would have set up the force out at every base.

[moonslav59]

If the Yanks short change Judge and he goes elsewhere, there will be consternation beyond belief. I think the Yanks realize he is a must sign player

 

My point is, what if they don't "short-change" him, but some other team offers him some absurd amount?

[bkzwhitestrican]

Boone strikes again? Bottom of 10th, man on second, two outs, Vlad up. Boone elects to pitch to him instead of issuing IBB, which seemed to be a no-brainer since Vlad is the Jays best hitter and it would have set up the force out at every base.

 

Yep, typical Boone

[jacksonianmarch]

My point is, what if they don't "short-change" him, but some other team offers him some absurd amount?

 

We are the Yankees. If we get outbid on someone we truly want, then shame on us

[jacksonianmarch]

Boone strikes again? Bottom of 10th, man on second, two outs, Vlad up. Boone elects to pitch to him instead of issuing IBB, which seemed to be a no-brainer since Vlad is the Jays best hitter and it would have set up the force out at every base.

 

Not mad at it at this point as we need to win one more game and clinch the division. But if this was two weeks ago, I would be furious

[moonslav59]

We are the Yankees. If we get outbid on someone we truly want, then shame on us

 

I'm just quibbling about the term short-changed.

 

Would Yankee fans really get irate, if the Met's offered him $400M/9, and Cashman wouldn't go higher?

 

If I were a Yankee fan, I'd be more upset, if we countered with $405M/9. It would mean way less helping players for 9 years.

[dgalehouse]

Personally, I would have walked Vlad, but you could argue that Kirk actually has a higher batting average than Vlad, in a situation where a base hit will beat you. Anyway, the whole " ghost runner " thing is stupid. Are they going to keep it in the post season ?

[moonslav59]

Personally, I would have walked Vlad, but you could argue that Kirk actually has a higher batting average than Vlad, in a situation where a base hit will beat you. Anyway, the whole " ghost runner " thing is stupid. Are they going to keep it in the post season ?

 

I'd rather they just go to 12 innings, if needed, and then call it a tie.

[jacksonianmarch]

62!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Congratulations to Judge. Glad he got it done.

[moonslav59]

The pressure must have been enormous.

 

He deserved it.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm just quibbling about the term short-changed.

 

Would Yankee fans really get irate, if the Met's offered him $400M/9, and Cashman wouldn't go higher?

 

If I were a Yankee fan, I'd be more upset, if we countered with $405M/9. It would mean way less helping players for 9 years.

 

The reality of baseball is taking advantage of windows. Yanks are within theirs. They’ve got the now impact prospects to cheaply build around their core but they cannot afford to lose their core. You spend to keep your windows open. You shed after the window closes. Yanks have to pay the man