9/21 Mets @ SOX 7:10PM

[Maxbialystock]

He attacks the outside the zone fringes.

 

He's become pretty successful doing that- much better than earlier in his career, where he barely made it past the 4th inning.

 

The guy is a winner. he keeps the team in games more than almost anyone else.

 

He also bears down with men on base and gets out of many jams.

 

He missed 2020 with serious COVID issues and struggle out of the gate.

 

Over the last 14 starts, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, despite having a horrific defense behind him and a .344 BAbip in this time frame. He's at 3.64/3.41 over his last 9 starts

 

I agree, it does not seem like he will ever get past his "nibbler" tendencies, but it works for him and the team.

 

ERod does not have a great repertoire, which is why he can't "attack the strike zone" the way folks want him to. He does not have a great curve or slider, so he relies a lot on fastballs and cut fastballs and hitting the corners--and that changeup, which can be really good when it is working. Last night it clearly was not. Thus the scene in the dugout after he gave up 2 runs in the top of the 4th on 2 singles and 3 walks--which actually could have been a lot worse without that great play by Kike--where he is shaking his head while talking to Cora.

[moonslav59]

Well, that is another topic. IMO Lindor is a better SS than XB.

 

It is an absurd number, but it should not be what other GMs use to set the value on Correa, Baez, Story and others and Bogey next winter.

[mvp 78]

He attacks the outside the zone fringes.

 

He's become pretty successful doing that- much better than earlier in his career, where he barely made it past the 4th inning.

 

The guy is a winner. he keeps the team in games more than almost anyone else.

 

He also bears down with men on base and gets out of many jams.

 

He missed 2020 with serious COVID issues and struggle out of the gate.

 

Over the last 14 starts, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, despite having a horrific defense behind him and a .344 BAbip in this time frame. He's at 3.64/3.41 over his last 9 starts

 

I agree, it does not seem like he will ever get past his "nibbler" tendencies, but it works for him and the team.

 

Eovaldi 12 QS

ERod 9 QS

Pivetta 8 QS

 

He's about as good as Nick Pivetta.

[Maxbialystock]

Plus, Devers seems to be coming out of his fielding funk. Bogey looks 100% healthy, too.

 

Absolutely.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi 12 QS

ERod 9 QS

Pivetta 8 QS

 

He's about as good as Nick Pivetta.

 

Not over the second half of the season.

 

Not over the last 3-4 seasons.

 

Not based on this...

 

I made some adjustments to my own system, and here are the results for 2021, including today. (I went through every game box score to gather these results.)

 

A Quality Start:

8+ IP 0-3 ERs/ 6+ IP 0-2 ERs/ 5+ IP 0-1 ER/ 4+ IP 0 ER

 

B Quality Start:

8+ IP 4 ER/ 6+IP 3 ER/ 5+ IP 2 ER/ 4+ IP 1 ER/ 3+ IP 0 ER

 

C Quality Start:

6.2-7.2IP 4 ER/ 5.1-5.2 IP 3 ER/ 4+ IP 2 ER/ 3+ IP 1 ER

 

D (just missed QS):

8+ IP 5 ER/ 6+IP 4 ER/4.1-5.0IP 3ER/ 3.1-3.2 IP 2ER

 

The 2021 Red Sox Starters:

 

Eovaldi 30 GS (20 QS/ 20 A+

15 QSA

5 QSB

0 QSC

2 Close

22/30 QS+ close 73.3%

 

ERod 28 GS (15 QS/14 A+

9 QSA

5 QSB

1 QSC

1 close

16/28 QS+ close 57.1%

 

Pivetta 28 GS (12 QS/ 10 QS A+

10 QSA

0 QSB

2 QSC

6 close

18/28 QS+close 64.3%

 

Perez 22 GS (13 QS/ 13 QS A+

6 QSA

7 QSB

0 QSC

2 close

15/22 QS+ close 68.2%

 

Richards 22 GS (10 QS/ 8 QS A+

6 QSA

2 QSB

2 QSC

3 close

13/22 QS + close 59.1%

 

Edited September 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

He attacks the outside the zone fringes.

 

He's become pretty successful doing that- much better than earlier in his career, where he barely made it past the 4th inning.

 

The guy is a winner. he keeps the team in games more than almost anyone else.

 

He also bears down with men on base and gets out of many jams.

 

He missed 2020 with serious COVID issues and struggle out of the gate.

 

Over the last 14 starts, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, despite having a horrific defense behind him and a .344 BAbip in this time frame. He's at 3.64/3.41 over his last 9 starts

 

I agree, it does not seem like he will ever get past his "nibbler" tendencies, but it works for him and the team.

 

I agree ERod is worth defending. I don't know whether he will be worth a long-term contract, but right now, Sep 22, he is very much needed because he is demonstrably our 3d best starter. In 4 September starts, he has had one bad one, giving up 6 to the Rays, but also went 6 shutout innings vs the Rays, 6 with just 1 earned run vs. the Mariners, and last night 4.1 innings while giving up just 2 runs when he didn't have his good changeup.

 

Indeed, the 4th inning last night should have been cataclysmic. ERod gave up 3 walks and 2 singles and 2 runs, but was saved by that great throw by Kike to nail that guy going home on a single. That gave ERod his first out and nobody on 3b. After that, with men still on 1st and 2d, he got the last 2 outs on an easy fly to CF and a grounder to Dalbec. Pretty gritty in my book.

[moonslav59]

I agree ERod is worth defending. I don't know whether he will be worth a long-term contract, but right now, Sep 22, he is very much needed because he is demonstrably our 3d best starter. In 4 September starts, he has had one bad one, giving up 6 to the Rays, but also went 6 shutout innings vs the Rays, 6 with just 1 earned run vs. the Mariners, and last night 4.1 innings while giving up just 2 runs when he didn't have his good changeup.

 

Indeed, the 4th inning last night should have been cataclysmic. ERod gave up 3 walks and 2 singles and 2 runs, but was saved by that great throw by Kike to nail that guy going home on a single. That gave ERod his first out and nobody on 3b. After that, with men still on 1st and 2d, he got the last 2 outs on an easy fly to CF and a grounder to Dalbec. Pretty gritty in my book.

 

Plus, the people that bashed him last night, ignored the first 3 innings of fine work.

[dgalehouse]

E Rod is okay , but really not anything special . A career 4.00 ERA type. And he sometimes appears to be a little out of shape . A qualifying offer is a lot of money . I'd think twice about that.

[redsoxrules]

I went by 2016-2018 average (103 HRs in 3 years).

 

I don't count a player's first few seasons as projection tools for who they will be or are now.

 

You don't count the last 2 either. His defense is also already declining. It's going to be a terrible contract

[moonslav59]

E Rod is okay , but really not anything special . A career 4.00 ERA type. And he sometimes appears to be a little out of shape . A qualifying offer is a lot of money . I'd think twice about that.

 

It's the just one year part that makes it a possibility. I doubt any Sox fan would be fore a $19M x 5 year deal.

[moonslav59]

You don't count the last 2 either. His defense is also already declining. It's going to be a terrible contract

 

I didn't count 2021, because he signed the deal before that.

 

I didn't count 2020 because it was 2020. I can see thinking those numbers should count, though- proportionally.

[iortiz]

I've defended ERod but IMO He is balles.

[d-money]

I learned the following after reading this thread:

 

ERod is balless and spineless.

 

Brasier should not throw his best pitch.

 

Guy pitches like one giant puss!!

[redsoxrules]

I didn't count 2021, because he signed the deal before that.

 

I didn't count 2020 because it was 2020. I can see thinking those numbers should count, though- proportionally.

 

Also, according to fangraphs. Bogey is a better defender and Lindor ranks 17th in all of SS for defense.

[Maxbialystock]

Eovaldi 12 QS

ERod 9 QS

Pivetta 8 QS

 

He's about as good as Nick Pivetta.

 

Season to date, yes. In fact, Pivetta has the better WAR, 2.4 to 1.4.

 

But ERod has been better in August (ERA 3.33) and September (ERA 4.05) than Pivetta (Aug ERA 5.27, Sep ERA 4.00). Pivetta peaked in April, ERA 2.81.

 

I think Pivetta might better stuff, but has never had as good a season as ERod in 2019 (WAR 6.0, ERA 3.81, 203.1 innings).

[mvp 78]

Season to date, yes. In fact, Pivetta has the better WAR, 2.4 to 1.4.

 

But ERod has been better in August (ERA 3.33) and September (ERA 4.05) than Pivetta (Aug ERA 5.27, Sep ERA 4.00). Pivetta peaked in April, ERA 2.81.

 

I think Pivetta might better stuff, but has never had as good a season as ERod in 2019 (WAR 6.0, ERA 3.81, 203.1 innings).

 

2021 ERod isn't 2019 ERod.

 

Sep Pivetta ERA is better than Sep ERod ERA.

[Maxbialystock]

Also, according to fangraphs. Bogey is a better defender and Lindor ranks 17th in all of SS for defense.

 

I think fangraphs is wrong, but I also prefer Bogaerts who hits very well and he takes his defense very seriously. Thus just 8 errors this year which is about normal for him. He lacks range, especially on grounders, but is consistent.

[Maxbialystock]

2021 ERod isn't 2019 ERod.

 

Sep Pivetta ERA is better than Sep ERod ERA.

 

Microscopically better in September. Pivetta definitely has the better season long ERA, but to me ERod has been more consistent the last 2 months and has the better overall track record as a MLB pitcher.

[Maxbialystock]

E Rod is okay , but really not anything special . A career 4.00 ERA type. And he sometimes appears to be a little out of shape . A qualifying offer is a lot of money . I'd think twice about that.

 

This is a fair assessment even though 2019 was a pretty good year for ERod. Dead on about conditioning. He also could care less about defending his position. His follow thru puts him in an awkward position for defense--the polar opposite of how Sale finishes his pitches.

[mvp 78]

Microscopically better in September. Pivetta definitely has the better season long ERA, but to me ERod has been more consistent the last 2 months and has the better overall track record as a MLB pitcher.

 

Seems like Pivetta was almost equal to ERod in terms of GIVING HIS TEAM A CHANCE TO WIN this season.

[moonslav59]

Also, according to fangraphs. Bogey is a better defender and Lindor ranks 17th in all of SS for defense.

 

Huh?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

20 qualifying SSs:

Lindor is second.

Bogey is 10th.

 

UZR/150

Lindor 2nd

Bogey 11th

 

DRS

Lindor 6th

Bogey Last (20th out of 20)

 

Expand the list to 2500+ Innings since 2015: (34 qualify)

 

UZR/150

2. Lindor

19. Bogey

 

DRS:

8. Lindor

34. Bogey (last)

 

Want more recent?

 

2019-2021 (100+ innings and 35 qualified)

UZR/150

4. lindor

17. Bogey

DRS

8. Lindor

31. Bogey (5th from worst- BTW, right ahead of Iggy)

 

In 2021, alone, Bogey is ahead 2.1 to 2.0 in UZR/150 but is 9 runs behind in DRS.

Edited September 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

You don’t need stats. Lindor is way better at defense. It’s not even close.

 

If you don’t know that, you don’t watch baseball at all.

[iortiz]

Cora is going to sit Dalbec. No kidding.

 

Why do you sit your best hitter in this instance. Unbelievable.