Who should close going forward?

[dgalehouse]

But what's more high leverage: the "set-up" man retiring the 4-5-6 batters with the bases loaded in the 8th or the "closer" then facing 7-8-9 in a clean inning in the 9th?

 

If it's the latter, isn't that more mental than physical?

Using an extreme or unusual example to make a case is an old tactic here on TalkSox , as well as elsewhere. It doesn't change the fact that everything is amped up to the max in the ninth inning of a close game. Nothing in the earlier innings compares .

[notin]

Using an extreme or unusual example to make a case is an old tactic here on TalkSox , as well as elsewhere. It doesn't change the fact that everything is amped up to the max in the ninth inning of a close game. Nothing in the earlier innings compares .

 

I disagree.

 

I have to imagine a pitcher is far more amped up facing Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr. in the 8th than facing Brayvic Valera and Sergio Espinal in the 9th.

 

After all, baseball is competition. And better opponents make for more intense moments…

[Bellhorn04]

If it's a 1 run game, I think both jobs are tough. I agree with Denny up to a certain point about the 9th inning, because there's a psychological aspect to being the last man standing. But I think it can be overstated, too.

[Maxbialystock]

Using an extreme or unusual example to make a case is an old tactic here on TalkSox , as well as elsewhere. It doesn't change the fact that everything is amped up to the max in the ninth inning of a close game. Nothing in the earlier innings compares .

 

I disagree. I think the 1st inning overall has been a bigger problem for the Sox this year than the 9th.

[mvp 78]

I disagree. I think the 1st inning overall has been a bigger problem for the Sox this year than the 9th.

 

1st: 827 OPS

6th: 863 OPS

9th: 695 OPS

Xtras: 892 OPS

[notin]

If it's a 1 run game, I think both jobs are tough. I agree with Denny up to a certain point about the 9th inning, because there's a psychological aspect to being the last man standing. But I think it can be overstated, too.

 

It seems as though that pressure would also fall on the hitter, equalizing the whole confrontation to an extent…

[notin]

I disagree. I think the 1st inning overall has been a bigger problem for the Sox this year than the 9th.

 

For all of this closer talk about last night’s loss, the game was neither a save situation nor did the Twins rally in the ninth…

[dgalehouse]

In the " absence makes the heart grow fonder" department: We have folks waiting and hoping that 34 year old Ryan Brasier flies in , ala Mighty Mouse , to save the day. Brasier has seven career saves and eight career blown saves.

[mvp 78]

It seems as though that pressure would also fall on the hitter, equalizing the whole confrontation to an extent…

 

A battle of clutchness.

[Maxbialystock]

If it's a 1 run game, I think both jobs are tough. I agree with Denny up to a certain point about the 9th inning, because there's a psychological aspect to being the last man standing. But I think it can be overstated, too.

 

I think you have it. Ideally, a good bullpen can "lock down" the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, which means facing every hitter on the opposing team. So that good bullpen should probably have several pitchers who, if asked, could close because they are that good.

 

For those who believe the closer is the key to winning, please don't forget Craig Kimbrel, the Sox great closer who wasn't so great, at least not in the 2018 postseason when his ERA blew up to 5.91.

 

In game 1 vs. the Yankees, Kimbrel gave up 1 run to make the score 5-4, and got a save. In game 4 vs the Yankees, he gave up 2 runs and got another save. His 3d postseason save, vs. Houston, was again after giving up a run--the Sox won 7-5. Another run, another save in an 8-6 win over the Astros. Finally, his 5th save--again vs. the Astros--included no runs score and a final score of 4-1--and in his 6th save vs. the Dodgers, he again gave up no runs in a 4-2 win.

 

In the 2018 postseason, the ace reliever for the Sox was beyond question Joe Kelly, who gave up 1 run in 11.1 innings. Eovaldi was also magnificent in relief. Barnes went 8.2 innings--against three really good hitting teams--giving up 1 run, and so did Brasier.

 

So, all in all, I think the mystique about the necessity of THE GREAT CLOSER is mostly a bunch of hooey.

[notin]

In the " absence makes the heart grow fonder" department: We have folks waiting and hoping that 34 year old Ryan Brasier flies in , ala Mighty Mouse , to save the day. Brasier has seven career saves and eight career blown saves.

 

Not uncommon for guys who aren’t closers. They can only get a save on the 9th inning but can get blown saves in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings as well…

[mvp 78]

Not uncommon for guys who aren’t closers. They can only get a save on the 9th inning but can get blown saves in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings as well…

 

Yes, this is why I stated yesterday that save percentage wasn't a great measure for relievers.

[notin]

Yes, this is why I stated yesterday that save percentage wasn't a great measure for relievers.

 

Last night’s game was a prime example of why save percentage isn’t very good.

 

Colome got a blown save, but his three-pitch strikeout of Verdugo was absolutely key in giving his team a chance to win, which they did.

 

Robles was horrible, but it was a tie game, so, hey, no blown save and therefore it doesn’t count for save percentage…

[Bellhorn04]

Last night’s game was a prime example of why save percentage isn’t very good.

 

Colome got a blown save, but his three-pitch strikeout of Verdugo was absolutely key in giving his team a chance to win, which they did.

 

Robles was horrible, but it was a tie game, so, hey, no blown save and therefore it doesn’t count for save percentage…

 

Yeah, all these stats for relievers are very bad and stupid.

[notin]

Yeah, all these stats for relievers are very bad and stupid.

 

I think JoeBreidey and his love for the K/BB might have summed it up best…

[dgalehouse]

Folks on here love to complicate everything. Pick apart and analyze everything to death. They have a million and one stats. Your average Joe Fan doesn't do that. A save is a save. A good thing. A blown save is a bad thing. I look at it this way : A " save" represents a game that goes into the win column . A game you were leading and you won. The team with the most wins , wins the division , the playoffs , etc. The whole object is to win.

[mvp 78]

Folks on here love to complicate everything. Pick apart and analyze everything to death. They have a million and one stats. Your average Joe Fan doesn't do that. A save is a save. A good thing. A blown save is a bad thing. I look at it this way : A " save" represents a game that goes into the win column . A game you were leading and you won. The team with the most wins , wins the division , the playoffs , etc. The whole object is to win.

 

For a pitcher, the object is to keep the batter from getting on base. Maybe OPSa is the best we can do.

[moonslav59]

For a pitcher, the object is to keep the batter from getting on base. Maybe OPSa is the best we can do.

 

To me, OPS and OPS Against tell a big enough story, by themselves to determine if a player is doing well, average or badly. Sure, there are other factors, like defense, speed, timely hitting and intangibles not captured by these stats, but they both tell most of what I need to know.

 

That being said, I'm not sure I'd agree Ottavino has been our 3rd best pitcher:

 

OPS Against Leaders (150+ PAs against)

 

.616 Whitlock

.625 Barnes

.642 Ottavino

.673 Houck

.679 Taylor

.693 Eovaldi

.697 DHern

 

.709 Valdez

.730 Pivetta

.763 Sawamura'.770 ERod

 

.847 Richards

.848 Perez

 

.942 Andriese

 

Notables with under 150 PAs against

 

.450 Bazardo (12)

.615 Rios (98)

.630 Davis (46)

1.013 Robles (54)

 

Our Offense (150+ PAs)

.897 Devers

.881 Bogey

.868 JD

.817 Renfroe

.813 Kike

 

.791 Verdugo

.787 Arroyo

.712 Dalbec

 

.650 Vaz

 

.567 Marwin

 

80-149 PAs

.728 Plawecki (134)

.608 Duran (89)

.554 Santana (113)

.497 Cordero (136)

 

Other notables under 80

1.242 T Shaw (12)

1.100 Schwarber (37) .930 MLB in 2021 (340 PAs)

.896 Wong (14)

.523 Arauz (32)

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

1st: 827 OPS

6th: 863 OPS

9th: 695 OPS

Xtras: 892 OPS

 

Neat, thanks. I was close and better than I thought I would be.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, OPS and OPS Against tell a big enough story, by themselves to determine if a player is doing well, average or badly. Sure, there are other factors, like defense, speed, timely hitting and intangibles not capture by these stats, but they tell most of what I need to know.

 

That being said, I'm not sure I'd agree Ottavino has been our 3rd best pitcher

 

Ottavino makes for a great argument that OPS should be weighted more toward OBP.

[Bellhorn04]

Folks on here love to complicate everything. Pick apart and analyze everything to death. They have a million and one stats. Your average Joe Fan doesn't do that. A save is a save. A good thing. A blown save is a bad thing. I look at it this way : A " save" represents a game that goes into the win column . A game you were leading and you won. The team with the most wins , wins the division , the playoffs , etc. The whole object is to win.

 

And if wins and losses and saves were all we had to talk about, there wouldn't be much reason to even have a Talksox.

 

"We lost 9-6 last night."

"Yeah, I know, that sucks."

"OK, see you tomorrow."

[Maxbialystock]

Last night’s game was a prime example of why save percentage isn’t very good.

 

Colome got a blown save, but his three-pitch strikeout of Verdugo was absolutely key in giving his team a chance to win, which they did.

 

Robles was horrible, but it was a tie game, so, hey, no blown save and therefore it doesn’t count for save percentage…

 

Finally!!! One other talksoxer who realizes that Colome actually caused Verdugo to strike out.

 

Everyone else has implied or inferred that Verdugo should instantly recognize where every pitch is going and swing only when he gets a fastball right down the middle--also that Verdugo can do that regardless of who is pitching and how well they are pitching.

 

Indeed, it's because Colone got 2 outs after giving up the tying home run that he deserves some credit. And it's because Robles kept making the same stupid pitches right down the middle that he deserves censure.

[Maxbialystock]

Folks on here love to complicate everything. Pick apart and analyze everything to death. They have a million and one stats. Your average Joe Fan doesn't do that. A save is a save. A good thing. A blown save is a bad thing. I look at it this way : A " save" represents a game that goes into the win column . A game you were leading and you won. The team with the most wins , wins the division , the playoffs , etc. The whole object is to win.

 

I'm with you and have always thought those first 8 innings were bunch of horsehockey. It's the 9th and only the 9th where the game is won or lost.

[Maxbialystock]

1st: 827 OPS

6th: 863 OPS

9th: 695 OPS

Xtras: 892 OPS

 

This is neat. The starters own the 1st inning and clearly need to do a better job there. My impression is that most, if not all, Sox starters very much prefer fastballs in the 1st inning, no doubt thinking it's either an extension of their pregame warmup or an opportunity to establish their authority.

 

The 6th OPS might be high because that's when the Sox starters are sure to be going through the opposing lineup for the dreaded 3d time.

 

The low 9th OPS might be because of Barnes and Cora's belief that only your best reliever should get the 9th in a close game.

[notin]

This is neat. The starters own the 1st inning and clearly need to do a better job there. My impression is that most, if not all, Sox starters very much prefer fastballs in the 1st inning, no doubt thinking it's either an extension of their pregame warmup or an opportunity to establish their authority.

 

The 6th OPS might be high because that's when the Sox starters are sure to be going through the opposing lineup for the dreaded 3d time.

 

The low 9th OPS might be because of Barnes and Cora's belief that only your best reliever should get the 9th in a close game.

 

The low OPS in the ninth is also heavily carried by Barnes’ pre-August dominance in that inning. And that a couple of his recent meltdowns happened in earlier innings (notably in Toronto)…

[mvp 78]

The low OPS in the ninth is also heavily carried by Barnes’ pre-August dominance in that inning. And that a couple of his recent meltdowns happened in earlier innings (notably in Toronto)…

 

It shows how much Barnes helped to uplift this staff as a whole for a long time.

[moonslav59]

Ottavino makes for a great argument that OPS should be weighted more toward OBP.

 

Agreed. Maybe....

 

(.67 x OBP) + (.33 x SLG)

 

or

 

(.6 x OBP) + (.4 x SLG)

 

 

Did I get the math right there?

 

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. Maybe....

 

(.67 x OBP) + (.33 x SLG)

 

or

 

(.6 x OBP) + (.4 x SLG)

 

 

Did I get the math right there?

 

 

Yes. I think 60/40 is about right.

[dgalehouse]

I'm with you and have always thought those first 8 innings were bunch of horsehockey. It's the 9th and only the 9th where the game is won or lost.

 

Horsehockey. I like it. Even more than " a lot of hooey ". Good job, Maxie.

[Maxbialystock]

It shows how much Barnes helped to uplift this staff as a whole for a long time.

 

Could be right. I think closer is over-rated--thus my example of Kimbrel in the 2018 postseason--but Barnes has had a bunch of terrific outings this season, and his teammates all watched him do it.