A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

That's what they said when he was originally acquired by the Sox. Scouts believe he can stick at C now and doesn't have to be a UTIL guy yet.

 

So, suddenly, he looks like a plus defender at catcher?

[mvp 78]

@redsoxpayroll

Removing Andriese from the roster means effectively declining the 2022 $3.5MM club option in favor of a $250k buy-out.

 

Other 2022 options still to be decided: Richards ($10MM), Perez ($6MM), Vazquez ($7-8MM), Schwarber ($11MM mutual).

[mvp 78]

So, suddenly, he looks like a plus defender at catcher?

 

I'm not sure anyone has said "plus" or "suddenly."

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure anyone has said "plus" or "suddenly."

 

Well, you did say Bloom does not care much about catcher offense, and you said Wong may be our back-up, so I assumed you meant they were high on catcher defense- which they had been with TB.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxpayroll

Removing Andriese from the roster means effectively declining the 2022 $3.5MM club option in favor of a $250k buy-out.

 

Other 2022 options still to be decided: Richards ($10MM), Perez ($6MM), Vazquez ($7-8MM), Schwarber ($11MM mutual).

 

No to Richards.

Probably No to Perez.

No to Andriese (DFA)

Schwarber will decline player option.

Yes to Vaz (and maybe trade him)

[User Name]

No to Richards.

Probably No to Perez.

No to Andriese (DFA)

Schwarber will decline player option.

Yes to Vaz (and maybe trade him)

 

Why are you so insistent on trading Vasquez?

[Maxbialystock]

That's what they said when he was originally acquired by the Sox. Scouts believe he can stick at C now and doesn't have to be a UTIL guy yet.

 

In the games I have watched him catch, I thought Wong looked pretty darn good. I can't comment on his arm (throwing baserunners out) or framing pitches or how he calls a game, but I like how he handles himself defensively. His game log says caught 3 games (Yankees, Royals, and Angels), in which the Sox won 2 of 3 and Eovaldi was the starter in all 3 games and pitched well in all 3 games.

[moonslav59]

Why are you so insistent on trading Vasquez?

 

You know my views on CERA and OPS Against by catcher.

 

He also has just 1 year of control left.

 

[Maxbialystock]

The absolute best value in players are those who are really talented and acquired when the team has several years of control, usually thru the farm system, but sometimes by trade.

 

If you go back to that crucial scene in the movie Moneyball, the one in which all those old scouts are shot down by Billy Beane and his new assistant, you are looking at a quick fix solution and not one teams should follow routinely. Yes, absolutely, get value and even use sabermetrics to help you in making trades, but young talent and especially evaluating young talent and bringing it along are crucial to any MLB team. Billy Beane, at least in the movie, says that all scouts are worthless, and he is wrong.

 

Relatedly, it's a truism in MLB that the big money comes from long-term contracts in which the biggest part of the salary comes at age 30 and after, which is when players wear down, lose their timing, get injured, whatever. Consider the following data on the 2021 Sox players--by name, age, salary, and WAR--

 

Sale, 32, $30M, WAR .1

Bogaerts, 28, $20M, WAR 3.9

JDM, 33, $19M, WAR 3.1

Eovaldi, 31, $17M, WAR 3.0

Price, 35, $16M, WAR 0.0

Pedroia, 37, $12M, WAR 0.0

Richards, 33, $8.5M, WAR .3

E. Rodriguez, 28, $8.3M, WAR .9

Ottavino, 35, $7.1M, WAR .8

Vazquez, 30, $6.2M, WAR .7

Devers, 24, $4.8M, WAR 4.0

Rike Hernandez, 29, $6M, WAR 3.8

Barnes, 31, $4.5M, WAR 1.2

Perez, 30, $4.5M, WAR .7

Renfroe, 29, $3.1M, WAR 1.8

Plawecki, 30, $1.6, WAR .1

Sawamura, 33, $1.2M, WAR .8

Verdugo, 25, $650K, WAR 1.9

Pivetta, 28, $610K, WAR 2.4

Dalbec, 26, $575K, WAR -.6

Whitlock, 25, $570K, WAR 2.3

Duran, 24, $570K, WAR -.4

 

If you further divide a player's salary by his WAR, you can see that the best Sox player values this year are under 30 years old--except for Sawamura.

 

Price is I think a great example of the folly of giving a long term contract circa age 30. And maybe Sale is too even though I like him a lot. JDM has actually produced and I think was the key bat added after 2017 who made a big difference in 2018. And Eovaldi and Barnes, both 31, are also pretty good value this year. I think the Bogaerts contract was/is a good value, but shudder at what Devers will want when he becomes a free agent. Think Mookie Betts.

 

About Pedroia's $12M. It looks bad, but 2007 (his rookie year) thru 2021 (including 4 years of basically not playing), 15 years, his total WAR was 52 and his total salary was $138M, so the Sox were basically paying him $2.65M/WAR, which is actually not bad. Jacoby Ellsbury also came up in 2007 and his final year was 2020. His cumulative WAR was 31 and total salary was $168M.

[User Name]

You know my views on CERA and OPS Against by catcher.

 

He also has just 1 year of control left.

 

 

...both are objectively terrible.

[moonslav59]

...both are objectively terrible.

 

Yes, Vaz is objectively terrible in both categories against every back-up catcher, except Swihart with just about every pitcher with significant sample sizes with 2 or more catchers.

[User Name]

Yes, Vaz is objectively terrible in both categories against every back-up catcher, except Swihart with just about every pitcher with significant sample sizes with 2 or more catchers.

 

He's terrible at two objectively bad stats. Got it.

[mvp 78]

You know my views on CERA and OPS Against by catcher.

 

He also has just 1 year of control left.

 

 

Not this s*** again...

[User Name]

Not this s*** again...

 

We're not going down this rabbit hole. CERA is bad, and it should feel bad.

[mvp 78]

He's terrible at two objectively bad stats. Got it.

 

Funny thing is overall he's objectively better than Plawecki at CERA. It's only when moon hand picks data points that Vaz looks worse than Plawecki. Funny.

[mvp 78]

Logging in to type "Just Ignore All CERA Threads."

[User Name]

Funny thing is overall he's objectively better than Plawecki at CERA. It's only when moon hand picks data points that Vaz looks worse than Plawecki. Funny.

 

Not looking up the finer points of this comparison either ways, because CERA is the hot dog of catcher-value statistics, and we have some steak available.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxpayroll

FWIW, Vazquez's team option next year is currently for $7MM. It goes up to $8MM with another 123 PAs this season.

 

It'll be a race. Down to the wire, especially with more Plawecki ABs.

[moonslav59]

Funny thing is overall he's objectively better than Plawecki at CERA. It's only when moon hand picks data points that Vaz looks worse than Plawecki. Funny.

 

It's the only way to use the data- the only way. Not "my way."

 

If you don't understand the correct way to use the stat, just ignore it.

[mvp 78]

It's the only way to use the data- the only way. Not "my way."

 

If you don't understand the correct way to use the stat, just ignore it.

 

You aren't using data correctly if your hand picked sample works in your favor, but the overall big picture leans a different direction.

[moonslav59]

You aren't using data correctly if your hand picked sample works in your favor, but the overall big picture leans a different direction.

 

I didn't hand pick sample sizes. I took the largest sample sizes available. The sample sizes where 2 catchers caught the same pitcher a significant amount of time.

 

I didn't discard any pitcher- catcher sample size that was large enough to evaluate.

 

Even if you dive deeper into smaller and more unbalanced sample sizes, they nearly all show the same thing: each pitcher does better with almost anyone not names Vaz.

 

I even took the career numbers of all the Sox pitchers with a lot of IP'd since Vaz came up and compared those. The numbers were frighteningly bad for Vaz.

 

Go ahead and look at the overall season CERA, where one catcher catches some pitchers way more than others- some almost exclusively, and use those numbers- like they mean more.

 

The fact is, pitcher by pitcher, the back up get better results.

 

[dgalehouse]

The good thing about vast and ever growing alphabet soup of stats , both real and manufactured , that we have today is that you can usually rummage through them and find one that backs up your opinion.

[moonslav59]

You aren't using data correctly if your hand picked sample works in your favor, but the overall big picture leans a different direction.

 

Here's the "Cherry-picked" pitchers who just happen to be the ones who pitched the most IP with the Sox since Vaz came up:

 

CERA/OPS Against (IP)

 

Sale

2.51/.622 AJ P (226)

2.79/.578 Leon (436)

4.61/.762 Vaz (84)

(No catcher on the CWS had a CERA worse than 3.53)

 

ERod

 

3.78/.778 Hanigan (50)

4.05/.700 Leon (118)

4.23/.723 Vaz (566)

4.44/.692 Swihart (75)

 

Porcello

4.19/.728 Leon (576)

4.93/.800 Swihart (122)

4.96/.794 Vaz (211)

5.38/.831 Holaday (55)

(Nobody on Detroit with over 30 IP w Porcello had a worse CERA than 4.43)

 

Price

2.96/.647 Leon (204)

4.27/.738 Vaz (360)

(All other catchers with 30+ IP with Price had a CERA better than Vaz's. One guy, Gregg Zaun with only 43 IP had one close at 4.19. Everyone with more than 100 IP had a CERA or 3.61 or better.)

 

Eovaldi

2.66/.419 Wong (20)

3.54/.657 Plawecki (69)

4.30/.765 Vaz (147)

4.53/.735 Leon (44)

4.85/.421 Salty (124)

 

Buccholz

2.83/.642 VMart (241)

3.01/.646 Leon (155)

3.79/.629 Lava (36)

3.95/.737 Salty (207)

4.44/.705 Vaz (130)

4.68/.683 D Ross (73)

5.12/.801 VTek (118)

5.63/.836 AJ P (62)

Others: Alex Avila 1.55/.587 in 52 IP

 

Barnes

3.69/.624 Vaz (197)

3.83/.697 Leon (99)

4.50/.803 Swihart (42)

 

Pomeranz

3.32/.721 Holaday (41)

3.92/.745 Vaz (198)

6.02/.934 Leon (46)

 

Kelly

(Y Molina 2.81/.721 in 176 IP)

3.23/.619 Vaz (98)

3.94/.580 D Ross (32)

4.48/.698 Swihart (74)

4.63/.785 Leon (56)

4.83/.761 Hanigan (91)

 

Wright

2.94/.611 Hanigan (95)

3.49/.700 Vaz (101)

4.06/.716 Swihart (71)

5.83/.935 Leon (59)

 

Some sample sizes are rather small with some catchers and some are highly unbalanced. Some are during different parts of a pitcher's career, but the numbers astound me every time I look them up.

 

The totals:

 

10 top pitchers by IP

 

Leading in CERA:

2 Leon

2 Han

2 Vaz (Barnes & Joe Kelly- not the biggest sample size pitchers)

1 by AJP, Holaday, VMart, Plawecki

 

OPS Against:

4 Leon

1 Hanigan, Holaday Lava, Salty, Ross & Vaz

 

Last place with 100+ IP by 2+ catchers:

CERA

5 Vaz

1 VTEk (w Buch)

1 Leon (w Barnes)

 

OPS

4 Vaz

1 Swihart (Porcello)

1 VTek (Buch)

1 Leon (Barnes)

 

Out of the 9 pitchers who had 80+ IP with 2 or more catchers, Vaz finished last or second to last in 7 out of the 9 cases in CERA and 6 of 9 in OPS Against.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Career CERA/OPS Against (IP)

 

Sale

2.51/.622 AJ P (226)

2.79/.578 Leon (436)

4.61/.762 Vaz (84)

 

 

ERod

4.05/.700 Leon (118)

4.23/723 Vaz (566)

 

Porcello

4.19/.728 Leon (576)

4.93/.800 Swihart (122)

4.96/.794 Vaz (211)

 

Price

2.96/.647 Leon(204)

4.27/.738 Vaz (360)

 

Eovaldi

4.30/.765 Vaz(147)

4.85/.421 Salty (124)

 

Buccholz

2.83/.642 VMart(241)

3.01/.646 Leon (155)

3.95/.737 Salty (207)

4.44/.705 Vaz (130)

5.12/.801 VTek (118)

 

Wright

2.94/.611 Hanigan (95)

3.49/.700 Vaz(101)

Edited August 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[User Name]

Bruh, did Vasquez steal your HS sweetheart or something?

[Bellhorn04]

Career CERA/OPS Against (IP)

 

Sale

2.51/.622 AJ P (226)

2.79/.578 Leon (436)

4.61/.762 Vaz (84)

 

 

ERod

4.05/.700 Leon (118)

4.23/723 Vaz (566)

 

Porcello

4.19/.728 Leon (576)

4.93/.800 Swihart (122)

4.96/.794 Vaz (211)

 

Price

2.96/.647 Leon(204)

4.27/.738 Vaz (360)

 

Eovaldi

4.30/.765 Vaz(147)

4.85/.421 Salty (124)

 

Buccholz

2.83/.642 VMart(241)

3.01/.646 Leon (155)

3.95/.737 Salty (207)

4.44/.705 Vaz (130)

5.12/.801 VTek (118)

 

Wright

2.94/.611 Hanigan (95)

3.49/.700 Vaz(101)

 

And they jettisoned CERA champ Leon long ago.

[moonslav59]

Bruh, did Vasquez steal your HS sweetheart or something?

 

The variances are too great to be chalked up to other factors.

 

The fact that just about every pitcher with significant innings and even those with unbalanced and smaller sample sizes did better and way better without Vaz has meaning.

 

One could say lefty righty splits have too many other factors involved to have any significant value, but they are still discussed.

 

Why do some pitchers almost always pitch to just one catcher.

 

Even if the answer is just comfort and not some skill every one not named Vaz has, its still real and meaningful.

 

When pitchers are asked about throwing to certain catchers, of course they go out of their way to not throw ex teammates under a bus, but they all lavish great praise on catchers they had the most success with.

 

It matters to them.

[moonslav59]

And they jettisoned CERA champ Leon long ago.

 

They jettisoned Price, Buch and Wright, too. Someday Vaz will go, too.

 

Looking at Leon’s offense, one could ask how and why he lasted so long, and why Sale wanted him as his binky.

[mvp 78]

Bruh, did Vasquez steal your HS sweetheart or something?

 

We are all wondering...

[User Name]

The variances are too great to be chalked up to other factors.

 

The fact that just about every pitcher with significant innings and even those with unbalanced and smaller sample sizes did better and way better without Vaz has meaning.

 

One could say lefty righty splits have too many other factors involved to have any significant value, but they are still discussed.

 

Why do some pitchers almost always pitch to just one catcher.

 

Even if the answer is just comfort and not some skill every one not named Vaz has, its still real and meaningful.

 

When pitchers are asked about throwing to certain catchers, of course they go out of their way to not throw ex teammates under a bus, but they all lavish great praise on catchers they had the most success with.

 

It matters to them.

 

If CERA is the basis of this argument for you, that's a pretty tiny hill to die on.