A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

True.

 

But then either way, he has to decide if he prefers money or years. If he stays, it still gets tougher to get a longer deal next year.

 

If you think he is going to stay for the higher single season salary, what will he do the following year? Just retire?

 

The QO could figure in for him for 2022, but he is also t going to avoid it in 2023 unless he is terrible. If he does want more years, opting out after this year is actually his best plan…

 

If he does well in 2022- not opting out, he will get a nice multi-year offer from someone.

 

I wonder if 2020 scares him into doing a longer term deal after 2021 with the Sox.

 

Does this show a trend that should worry JD and GMs?

 

OPS by year

.879 2015

.908 2016

1.066 '17

1.031 '18

.939 '19

.680 '20 (short season)

.904 '21

 

To me, he is clearly showing decline from his fantastic 2017-2018 seasons.

 

One would expect sub .900 in 2022 and maybe mid .800's by 2023 and 2024 with maybe .800 by .2024 or 2025.

 

Players his age have dropped of cliffs, too. Very few continue at their current numbers or get better after 34 or 35 y/o.

 

He knows this.

His agent knows this.

All GMs know this.

[notin]

If he does well in 2022- not opting out, he will get a nice multi-year offer from someone.

 

I wonder if 2020 scares him into doing a longer term deal after 2021 with the Sox.

 

Does this show a trend that should worry JD and GMs?

 

OPS by year

.879 2015

.908 2016

1.066 '17

1.031 '18

.939 '19

.680 '20 (short season)

.904 '21

 

To me, he is clearly showing decline from his fantastic 2017-2018 seasons.

 

One would expect sub .900 in 2022 and maybe mid .800's by 2023 and 2024 with maybe .800 by .2024 or 2025.

 

Players his age have dropped of cliffs, too. Very few continue at their current numbers or get better after 34 or 35 y/o.

 

He knows this.

His agent knows this.

All GMs know this.

 

And that he could drop off at any time might be why he sees opting out after this year as his best option.

 

Now maybe he is happy in Boston and stays. But he very likely won’t get as good of an offer - in terms of years and money - after 2022 unless he has another tremendous season. In fact, he’ll be at an age where he might not be able to do better than a series of 1 year deals until he retires…

[mvp 78]

If he does well in 2022- not opting out, he will get a nice multi-year offer from someone.

 

I wonder if 2020 scares him into doing a longer term deal after 2021 with the Sox.

 

Does this show a trend that should worry JD and GMs?

 

OPS by year

.879 2015

.908 2016

1.066 '17

1.031 '18

.939 '19

.680 '20 (short season)

.904 '21

 

To me, he is clearly showing decline from his fantastic 2017-2018 seasons.

 

One would expect sub .900 in 2022 and maybe mid .800's by 2023 and 2024 with maybe .800 by .2024 or 2025.

 

Players his age have dropped of cliffs, too. Very few continue at their current numbers or get better after 34 or 35 y/o.

 

He knows this.

His agent knows this.

All GMs know this.

 

I don't see it as a decline. I just see 17-18 as a high point. 15, 16, 19, 21 are all within shouting distance of each other.

[notin]

I don't see it as a decline. I just see 17-18 as a high point. 15, 16, 19, 21 are all within shouting distance of each other.

 

 

That glass is half full!!

 

So you’re not saying he’s been worse since, just that he was better then…

[mvp 78]

True.

 

But then either way, he has to decide if he prefers money or years. If he stays, it still gets tougher to get a longer deal next year.

 

If you think he is going to stay for the higher single season salary, what will he do the following year? Just retire?

 

The QO could figure in for him for 2022, but he is also t going to avoid it in 2023 unless he is terrible. If he does want more years, opting out after this year is actually his best plan…

 

I have no idea if he prefers short term money or years. Maybe he gets a 3 year deal instead of a 4 year deal if he stays? IDK.

 

Would would he just retire? I'm confused.

 

I think he'll probably get a QO whenever his contract is done. Maybe he's doing the math to weigh his preference between $19.35 + QO (accept QO in 23) or QO declined + net impact on potential FA $$$.

[mvp 78]

That glass is half full!!

 

So you’re not saying he’s been worse since, just that he was better then…

 

He was pretty good in 15 and 16. I think 17 and 18 were just career years. I don't see him "declining" but just having more typical seasons (which are still pretty good BTW).

[mvp 78]

MLB careers don't typically look like sine waves.

[Bellhorn04]

As a free agent? If he opts out of a one year $19.35mill, it won't be to accept a one year $17mill. Maybe a 2 year $34mill. I could see that.

 

Well, I meant an extension, making the 19 mill into 2 years 36 mill.

[moonslav59]

I don't see it as a decline. I just see 17-18 as a high point. 15, 16, 19, 21 are all within shouting distance of each other.

 

It's almost a perfect bell curve, if you throw out 2020's sort season.

[mvp 78]

It's almost a perfect bell curve, if you throw out 2020's sort season.

 

Why do you expect that to continue? That's not how most MLB careers are. Maybe the outliers are 17 and 18?

[moonslav59]

Why do you expect that to continue? That's not how most MLB careers are. Maybe the outliers are 17 and 18?

 

I expect him to slowly keep declining as he ages, like most players do.

 

Do you expect him to repeat 2018 or 2019?

 

Of course, he may, but he could repeat 2020, too.

 

I'd expect a slow decline, but slowly declining from .920 is still damn good.

[notin]

I expect him to slowly keep declining as he ages, like most players do.

 

Do you expect him to repeat 2018 or 2019?

 

Of course, he may, but he could repeat 2020, too.

 

I'd expect a slow decline, but slowly declining from .920 is still damn good.

 

But how many years would he likely get at 35? If he value years more, he opts out. If he wants as much money as possible for 2021 and will worry about the future later, he probably stays.

 

Another thing working against him is that Dombrowski - the man who not only resurrected his career in Detroit but also gave him his current lucrative contract - will have no need for a DH until the rules change…

[mvp 78]

I expect him to slowly keep declining as he ages, like most players do.

 

Do you expect him to repeat 2018 or 2019?

 

Of course, he may, but he could repeat 2020, too.

 

I'd expect a slow decline, but slowly declining from .920 is still damn good.

 

I expect him to repeat 19 or 21 for a few more years.

[moonslav59]

But how many years would he likely get at 35? If he value years more, he opts out. If he wants as much money as possible for 2021 and will worry about the future later, he probably stays.

 

Another thing working against him is that Dombrowski - the man who not only resurrected his career in Detroit but also gave him his current lucrative contract - will have no need for a DH until the rules change…

 

If he hits .880 in 2022, he might get a Nelson Cruz type 4 year deal, and he'd be fine with that, IMO.

[mvp 78]

If he hits .880 in 2022, he might get a Nelson Cruz type 4 year deal, and he'd be fine with that, IMO.

 

I think this is reasonable.

[Bellhorn04]

If he hits .880 in 2022, he might get a Nelson Cruz type 4 year deal, and he'd be fine with that, IMO.

 

I'm not sure teams will be handing out deals like that to DH's any more.

[moonslav59]

I expect him to repeat 19 or 21 for a few more years.

 

He certainly might, but what makes you think he'll buck the trend of most players his age?

 

Yes, he works harder and studies the game more than just about anyone, but he's already shown signs of slowing down a bit and having longer "slumps," if you call hitting .725 for a month a slump.

 

OPS+

144 in 3 years prior to his peak at 171 from 2017-2018 at ages 29-30 (the normal meat of prime)

129 from 2019-2021. (120 from 2020-2021)

 

Even his 2019 season was slightly below his 2014-2016 three year span.

 

I have to think he'll stay around 125-140 for 2021 and more like 120-135 in 2022, with continued decline afterwards to some degree.

 

Who knows, maybe he's the next Dwight Evans or Nelson Cruz.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure teams will be handing out deals like that to DH's any more.

 

That's what they said before Cruz and JD signed their last deals.

[Bellhorn04]

Who knows, maybe he's the next Dwight Evans or Nelson Cruz.

 

Ortiz?

[moonslav59]

Ortiz?

 

Papi did defy the bell curve by having his 4th best OPS year at age 40- hhis last year. He also had his best OPS+ year at age 36, 3rd best at 40, and 5th best at 37. His 7th best was at age 35.

 

His worst 3 OPS+ with the Sox, were ages 32, 33 and 34, which many, including myself felt were signs of continued decline.

 

His best, in order: 36, 31, 40, 30, 37, 29, 35, 28, 27, 38, 39

 

It's almost a perfect pattern of alternating pots 34 years with pre 31 years.

 

The normal peak years (maybe 28-30) were not his best.

[notin]

If he hits .880 in 2022, he might get a Nelson Cruz type 4 year deal, and he'd be fine with that, IMO.

 

Possible.

 

His agent (Scott Boras) does like to see his clients reach the open market ASAP. And JD didn’t hire Boras to ignore his advice…

[mvp 78]

Possible.

 

His agent (Scott Boras) does like to see his clients reach the open market ASAP. And JD didn’t hire Boras to ignore his advice…

 

Scott Boras is not a vampire set out to destroy baseball. That's Manfred.

[oldtimer]

Our catching situation looks questionable for 2022 and on with Vaz having an off year and no solid options in our minors. Is this the time to look for a FA and if so who:

 

Catchers who qualify as 2022 FA's

 

Alex Avila (35)

Tucker Barnhart (31) — $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Robinson Chirinos (37)

Travis d’Arnaud (33)

Yan Gomes (34)

Sandy Leon (33)

Martin Maldonado (35)

Jeff Mathis (39)

Yadier Molina (39)

Roberto Perez (33) — $7MM club option ($450K buyout)

Manny Pina (34)

Buster Posey (35) — $22MM club option ($3MM buyout)

Wilson Ramos (34)

Austin Romine (33)

Kurt Suzuki (38)

Christian Vazquez (31) — $7MM club option ($250K buyout)

Mike Zunino (31) – $4MM club option ($1MM buyout)

[mvp 78]

Bloom's former team doesn't put a high priority on the bat of Catcher. My guess is that he may be fine with Wong being the backup next season.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Cora on how he hopes Houck improves moving forward: ‘If he improves, he’s on the Cy Young Award ballot’

 

I guess? He needs that third pitch. Whitlock got one from Andriese this offseason, Houck should go hang out with him.

[notin]

@alexspeier

Cora on how he hopes Houck improves moving forward: ‘If he improves, he’s on the Cy Young Award ballot’

 

I guess? He needs that third pitch. Whitlock got one from Andriese this offseason, Houck should go hang out with him.

 

Andriese wants it back, FYI…

[mvp 78]

Andriese wants it back, FYI…

 

He can't have it.

 

Never gonna get it. Never gonna get it.

[moonslav59]

Bloom's former team doesn't put a high priority on the bat of Catcher. My guess is that he may be fine with Wong being the backup next season.

 

The weird thing is, most scouting reports said Wong would or might not stick at the catching position going forward.

 

[moonslav59]

This past winter, many of my BTV trade suggestions centered on us trading Vaz.

 

Some were 3 team deals where Vaz went to a contender and we got Stallings from PItt.

[mvp 78]

The weird thing is, most scouting reports said Wong would or might not stick at the catching position going forward.

 

 

That's what they said when he was originally acquired by the Sox. Scouts believe he can stick at C now and doesn't have to be a UTIL guy yet.