2021 Spring Training Discussion

[mvp 78]

But then the Sox are penciling him into the lineup knowing very well he could be hitting .215 by July 1st. Chances are they pay more attention to what they know he can do - draw walks and hit home runs.

 

If he is hitting .215/.335/.450 with 12 Hrs on July 1st while batting 8th/9th, is his job really in jeopardy?

 

If Casas is OPSing 950 on July 1, seems like he'd help the team more than Dalbec. So yea, his job is in jeopardy depending on Casas' development.

[moonslav59]

But then the Sox are penciling him into the lineup knowing very well he could be hitting .215 by July 1st. Chances are they pay more attention to what they know he can do - draw walks and hit home runs.

 

If he is hitting .215/.335/.450 with 12 Hrs on July 1st while batting 8th/9th, is his job really in jeopardy?

 

Not even close to being in jeopardy, even if Casas is raking it in the minors.

[Bellhorn04]

As I said above "His OBP will be ok, but his batting average will be closer to Mendoza than many old school fans would like."

 

To hell with them!

[Bellhorn04]

I can see .234, and of course a range of about 30 points plus or minus seems justifiable, especially for a rookie.

 

.200 to .265 seems about right.

 

To me, the OBP is way more important, and maybe that range is from .310-.380.

 

I’ll project something like this:

 

BA .235-.260

 

OBP .333-.360

 

HRs 35-45 assuming 550+ PAs

 

Very Adam Dunn-like.

[moonslav59]

If Casas is OPSing 950 on July 1, seems like he'd help the team more than Dalbec. So yea, his job is in jeopardy depending on Casas' development.

 

I don’t see us benching a rookie hitting .785 on July 1st. I also doubt Casas will be called up that early, even if he’s hitting 1.100.

[moonslav59]

Very Adam Dunn-like.

 

I see Dalbec as being much closer to Dunn than Middy.

[notin]

I see Dalbec as being much closer to Dunn than Middy.

 

Middlebrooks had zero ability to recognize pitches and judge the strike zone (by MLB standards). Dalbec appears to be much, much better in this regard....

[mvp 78]

Not even close to being in jeopardy, even if Casas is raking it in the minors.

 

Disagree.

[mvp 78]

Very Adam Dunn-like.

 

And I've always said how much I liked Adam Dunn. Dalbec will stick around for a while. I just think his future isn't as starting 1B.

[mvp 78]

Middlebrooks had zero ability to recognize pitches and judge the strike zone (by MLB standards). Dalbec appears to be much, much better in this regard....

 

Dalbec's bb rate has been 11-15%. WMD's was 4-8%. They really aren't the same hitter. Dalbec walks more and has much more power. WMD had good power. Dalbec has elite power.

[moonslav59]

Disagree.

How often do teams give up on a rookie hitting .785 on July 1st?

 

Plus, if you add his small but great sample size from 2020, we’d be talking about benching a rookie hitting about .800 after 100 games.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec's bb rate has been 11-15%. WMD's was 4-8%. They really aren't the same hitter. Dalbec walks more and has much more power. WMD had good power. Dalbec has elite power.

 

Good points.

 

I think people see the high K rate and lower BA and group all those power hitters together, when having massive OBP disparities makes a world of difference.

[mvp 78]

How often do teams give up on a rookie hitting .785 on July 1st?

 

Plus, if you add his small but great sample size from 2020, we’d be talking about benching a rookie hitting about .800 after 100 games.

 

I don't think they "give up" on him. I think he gets a mix of playing time from 1B, 3B and DH.

[notin]

I don't think they "give up" on him. I think he gets a mix of playing time from 1B, 3B and DH.

 

If Casas takes over 1b from Dalbec, it does make Dalbec expendable and therefore a potential trade bait for pitching, especially if he only lost his job due to Casas raking, as you suggest, and not his own performance. So why relegate him to a bench role if/when he can be used to acquire a decent pitcher?

[notin]

How often do teams give up on a rookie hitting .785 on July 1st?

 

Plus, if you add his small but great sample size from 2020, we’d be talking about benching a rookie hitting about .800 after 100 games.

 

If Dalbec has an OPS of .785, Casas could be posting a 2.000 in Portland and all it will earn him is a trip to Worcester. Why risk losing Casas to free agency at age 28 to upgrade during a season in which the Sox are without Sale?

[mvp 78]

If Dalbec has an OPS of .785, Casas could be posting a 2.000 in Portland and all it will earn him is a trip to Worcester. Why risk losing Casas to free agency at age 28 to upgrade during a season in which the Sox are without Sale?

 

I too like to dabble in hyperbole.

[mvp 78]

If Casas takes over 1b from Dalbec, it does make Dalbec expendable and therefore a potential trade bait for pitching, especially if he only lost his job due to Casas raking, as you suggest, and not his own performance. So why relegate him to a bench role if/when he can be used to acquire a decent pitcher?

 

He still has lots of value going forward. I don't see JD here long term so popping Casas in a part time role for part of a season is no big deal. They could even deal off JD instead of Dalbec.

[notin]

He still has lots of value going forward. I don't see JD here long term so popping Casas in a part time role for part of a season is no big deal. They could even deal off JD instead of Dalbec.

 

Dealing JD and his $19.75mill contract in 2022, which he is absolutely going to exercise, seems like it might be a lot more difficult than dealing Dalbec, who can actually play the field and makes 0 money comparatively...

[notin]

I too like to dabble in hyperbole.

 

And to admit it as a method of avoiding questions...

[moonslav59]

I don't think they "give up" on him. I think he gets a mix of playing time from 1B, 3B and DH.

 

Sorry for using the phrase “give up on” when you clearly did not mean that. Someone just accused me of giving up on Houck, so I know how you feel.

 

If Casas is called up to play 1B full time, Dalbec would get very few PAs.

[mvp 78]

And to admit it as a method of avoiding questions...

 

If Casas is hitting 2.000, they should bench Devers if they have to in order to get Casas in the lineup.

[mvp 78]

Sorry for using the phrase “give up on” when you clearly did not mean that. Someone just accused me of giving up on Houck, so I know how you feel.

 

If Casas is called up to play 1B full time, Dalbec would get very few PAs.

 

Maybe they start off Casas in a platoon. Dalbec could also give days off to JD and Devers. I think there are enough AB's to go around. JD may have to even play LF at some point this year.

[mvp 78]

Dealing JD and his $19.75mill contract in 2022, which he is absolutely going to exercise, seems like it might be a lot more difficult than dealing Dalbec, who can actually play the field and makes 0 money comparatively...

 

It may be more difficult, but

1. it helps lux tax space which we are all so concerned about now

2. clears up a potential log jam

3. helps establish the future core of this team

[Bellhorn04]

Dealing JD and his $19.75mill contract in 2022, which he is absolutely going to exercise, seems like it might be a lot more difficult than dealing Dalbec, who can actually play the field and makes 0 money comparatively...

 

I'm pretty sure JD's opt outs are over now anyway.

[notin]

I'm pretty sure JD's opt outs are over now anyway.

 

Nope. One more after 2021...

[moonslav59]

Maybe they start off Casas in a platoon. Dalbec could also give days off to JD and Devers. I think there are enough AB's to go around. JD may have to even play LF at some point this year.

 

Casas should not be called up to platoon. He needs to play everyday, except for rest days- same as JD and Devers. This would mean Dalbec starts once every 2 weeks.

[Bellhorn04]

Nope. One more after 2021...

 

I looked it up and he had one after Year 2 and one after Year 3.

[notin]

I looked it up and he had one after Year 2 and one after Year 3.

 

Baseball-Reference and sportrac both note he has an opt-out after 2021. Cots does not acknowledge it beyond it being a mutual option if he has a Lisfranc injury.

 

So I guess it comes down to what source you like best. Doesn't matter. Since he is NOT opting out...

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball-Reference and sportrac both note he has an opt-out after 2021. Cots does not acknowledge it beyond it being a mutual option if he has a Lisfranc injury.

 

So I guess it comes down to what source you like best. Doesn't matter. Since he is NOT opting out...

 

It appears you're correct. Glad I didn't sound too sure of myself LOL

[Jasonbay44]

FWIW I think JBay meant he had low expectations for the Red Sox this year.

 

You sound a little pessimistic about Dalbec.

 

Yeah I meant about the season overall. But player wise, I have pretty low expectations for Dalbec. I never really viewed him as a 1B of the future type guy, but if he ends up exceeding expectations, great. I just think he profiles more as a high power guy with mediocre OBP and lots of strikeouts