A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

You have no idea what their plan is. Neither do I nor anyone else who posts here. But if Morosi is to be believed ( and there is no reason to doubt him) Cora got A good long look at Duran in the Puerto Rico

 

Certainly they might be giving consideration to fast-tracking him.

[notin]

You have no idea what their plan is. Neither do I nor anyone else who posts here. But if Morosi is to be believed ( and there is no reason to doubt him) Cora got A good long look at Duran in the Puerto Rico

 

I can find a dozen other talking heads who actually point to the alignment I mentioned. Whether or not Cora got a good long look at Duran doesn't really mean much, becuase (as moon points out), there is very likely to be service time manipulation if the yreally like him, and 2) Cora probably got a "good long look" a several other players not likely to start the season in Fenway (sadly and possibly including Tanner Houck)...

[moonslav59]

If we were to suddenly spring to life and sign Odorizzi & JBJ to deals (or even 2 of the 3), how close would we be to being considered top contenders, which I define as being heavy favorites to make the playoffs and a reasonable chance at advancing at least 1-2 rounds.

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogey SS

3. Renfroe/Cordero LF

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. JBJ CF

7. Vaz C

8. Dalbec 1B

9. EHern 2B

 

Bench: Plawecki, Renfroe or Cordero, Arroyo, Gonzalez

 

SP1 Sale (60 day IL)

SP2 ERod

SP3 Eovaldi

SP4 Richards

SP5 Pivetta/Perez

 

Closer: Ottavino

RP2 Barnes

RP3 D Hernandez

RP4 Brasier

RP5 Sawamura

RP6 Andriese

RP7 Perez or Pivetta

RP8 Whitlock

(Houck starts season in AAA.)

 

(Brice DFA'd or traded-one after Sale is activated)

 

Note: I doubt we add even one of these three, but play along...

 

Edited February 28, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Certainly they might be giving consideration to fast-tracking him.

 

I think he will play in MLB this year. But he has not even been added to the 40 man roster yet, which is the first step...

[Bellhorn04]

If we were to suddenly spring to life and sign Odorizzi, Rosenthal & JBJ to deals (or even 2 of the 3), how close would we be to being considered top contenders, which I define as being heavy favorites to make the playoffs and a reasonable chance at advancing at least 1-2 rounds.

 

Rosenthal signed.

[notin]

If we were to suddenly spring to life and sign Odorizzi, Rosenthal & JBJ to deals (or even 2 of the 3), how close would we be to being considered top contenders, which I define as being heavy favorites to make the playoffs and a reasonable chance at advancing at least 1-2 rounds.

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogey SS

3. Renfroe/Cordero LF

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. JBJ CF

7. Vaz C

8. Dalbec 1B

9. EHern 2B

 

Bench: Plawecki, Renfroe or Cordero, Arroyo, Gonzalez

 

SP1 Sale (60 day IL)

SP2 ERod

SP3 Eovaldi

SP4 Richards

SP5 Pivetta/Perez

 

Closer: Rosenthal

RP2 Ottavino

RP3 Barnes

RP4 D Hernandez

RP5 Brasier

RP6 Sawamura

RP7 Andriese

RP8 Perez or Pivetta

 

(Brice and Whitlock traded-one after Sale is activated)

 

Note: I doubt we add even one of these three, but play along...

 

 

Can we assume the player Whitlock and Valdez are traded for is Trevor Rosenthal, since he signed a deal 6 days ago to pitch for the Oakland A's?

 

Porcello is the available player you did not mention...

[moonslav59]

I can find a dozen other talking heads who actually point to the alignment I mentioned. Whether or not Cora got a good long look at Duran doesn't really mean much, becuase (as moon points out), there is very likely to be service time manipulation if the yreally like him, and 2) Cora probably got a "good long look" a several other players not likely to start the season in Fenway (sadly and possibly including Tanner Houck)...

 

I predict Duran & Houck start the season in AAA.

 

Houck has the better chance at beginning the season in the bigs, due to Sale being on the 60 day IL and the fragility of 3 other starters, but even if Houck does start in the bigs, my guess is, he will be sent down for enough time to gain a year of control AND to limit his IP, this year, which should be part of any plan, as it is.

 

Duran's best hope is that Cordero flops or gets hurt, but even if he does, we have Marwin, EHern and Chavis who can play OF and Arroyo, Marwin or Chavis to play 2B, if EHern plays OF.

 

I may be over hyping the team control aspect of the choices, but there are several other valid reasons to keep both in the minors for significant periods of the 2021 season.

 

Again, Houck's IP will surely be limited, so why not do that by sending him to AAA for a period of time?

 

Duran is still learning the OF position. He's just made a major adjustment to his hitting approach. He has not produced good numbers at a high level of the minors for any significant period of time. We have 6 guys out of our 13 everyday players that can play OF without Duran with maybe EHern being the best of the 6 on defense not even being slated to play the OF on opening day.

[moonslav59]

Rosenthal signed.

 

Ooops.

 

I went back and edited.

Edited February 28, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

 

Porcello is the available player you did not mention...

 

If we signed Odorizzi, Bick Dick would not be needed.

[notin]

If we signed Odorizzi, Bick Dick would not be needed.

 

True but I doubt it becomes an issue anyway. I think the Sox are pretty much done with MLB contracts and if there is any activity left, it’s just the occasional minor league deal...

[moonslav59]

True but I doubt it becomes an issue anyway. I think the Sox are pretty much done with MLB contracts and if there is any activity left, it’s just the occasional minor league deal...

 

Yes, but nobody answered my question: would adding JBJ & Odorizzi make us serious contenders in 2021?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but nobody answered my question: would adding JBJ & Odorizzi make us serious contenders in 2021?

 

It would increase our chances of making the playoffs. It might add 4-5 wins to our total. What else can be said?

[kenmeister]

Yes, but nobody answered my question: would adding JBJ & Odorizzi make us serious contenders in 2021?

 

No because I'm not convinced we have a quality closer. I still think Houck could be that guy, but he seems to be being groomed as a starter (in the long run that could be best anyway).

[notin]

No because I'm not convinced we have a quality closer. I still think Houck could be that guy, but he seems to be being groomed as a starter (in the long run that could be best anyway).

 

Ottavino will be fine as a closer. Barnes is ok as long as he is not required to pitch two days in a row, as he tends to get crushed if he pitches a second consecutive day.

 

The wild card is Darwinzon Hernandez, who has the talent and throws some serious heat, but is also prone to bouts of wildness...

[a700hitter]

Ottavino will be fine as a closer...

No, he will not be fine.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox outfield " progress ." From the " Killer B's" to Cordero , Verdugo and Renfroe . What happened???

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox outfield " progress ." From the " Killer B's" to Cordero , Verdugo and Renfroe . What happened???

 

Verdugo is better than JBJ or Beni.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo is better than JBJ or Beni.

 

Renfroe or a Renfrfoe/Cordero platoon is likely better than Beni, too.

[a700hitter]

Renfroe or a Renfrfoe/Cordero platoon is likely better than Beni, too.

How will it compare financially?

[moonslav59]

How will it compare financially?

 

Hard to know or calculate.

 

Renfroe makes $3.1M, this year and has two arb years left. He may never reach what Beni made, and Beni had one year left after 2021.

 

Cordero makes $800K and has two arbs left.

 

Do you count the $2.8M we are paying Beni? (What about the Betts money?)

 

Beni makes $6.6M and has one more arb year left.

 

Interestingly, Beni's $6.6M -$2.8M = $3.8M, almost the exact same as Renfroe + Cordero, but had we kept Beni and not added Renfroe and Cordero, we'd still have to pay the second player over $700K and Beni $6.6M, so a total of $7.3M to $3.9M.

 

[notin]

The Red Sox outfield " progress ." From the " Killer B's" to Cordero , Verdugo and Renfroe . What happened???

 

Well one of the Killer B’s reached free agency. And a second one was going to and wanted a killer deal (and eventually signed for the second largest deal in league history). And the third one stopped killing and just became B. So he’s a Royal now...

[notin]

Verdugo is better than JBJ or Beni.

 

Really there isn’t much difference between Renfroe (OPS+ of 106) and Benintendi (OPS+ of 107)...

[moonslav59]

Really there isn’t much difference between Renfroe (OPS+ of 106) and Benintendi (OPS+ of 107)...

 

Let's not forget JBJ's career OPA+ of 94 (also 94 from 2017-2020).

 

99 Cordero

99 Marwin (108 since 2017/ 93 after trashcan year)

98 EHern (98 since 2017, too)

[Bellhorn04]

Well one of the Killer B’s reached free agency. And a second one was going to and wanted a killer deal (and eventually signed for the second largest deal in league history). And the third one stopped killing and just became B. So he’s a Royal now...

 

One of the Killer B’s wanted too much honey.

[moonslav59]

One of the Killer B’s wanted too much honey.

 

One wanted too much honey.

One got hives.

One wanted to be a "king" bee elsewhere.

[dgalehouse]

I asked an old friend, 78 year old Sox fan Henry Farge , what he thought of the Sox ' projected outfield . He started talking about some of the many illustrious outfielders who have graced Fenway and provided excitement in the field , on the bases and at bat for the fans over the years , but when he came to this year's group all he could say was " I am trying hard to be optimistic." I guess we all are .

[a700hitter]

I asked an old friend, 78 year old Sox fan Henry Farge , what he thought of the Sox ' projected outfield . He started talking about some of the many illustrious outfielders who have graced Fenway and provided excitement in the field , on the bases and at bat for the fans over the years , but when he came to this year's group all he could say was " I am trying hard to be optimistic." I guess we all are .

On these cold winter days, I have been watching some old games on YouTube. Recently, I watched a 1969 game against the A's. The Red Sox OF was Yaz, Reggie Smith and Tony C. That was exciting.

[moonslav59]

I asked an old friend, 78 year old Sox fan Henry Farge , what he thought of the Sox ' projected outfield . He started talking about some of the many illustrious outfielders who have graced Fenway and provided excitement in the field , on the bases and at bat for the fans over the years , but when he came to this year's group all he could say was " I am trying hard to be optimistic." I guess we all are .

 

The infield has a little more to offer, but yes, it's hard.

[notin]

I asked an old friend, 78 year old Sox fan Henry Farge , what he thought of the Sox ' projected outfield . He started talking about some of the many illustrious outfielders who have graced Fenway and provided excitement in the field , on the bases and at bat for the fans over the years , but when he came to this year's group all he could say was " I am trying hard to be optimistic." I guess we all are .

 

The 1998 Red Sox had an outfield of Troy O’Leary, Darren Lewis and Darren Bragg and actually (gasp!) made the postseason....

[moonslav59]

The 1998 Red Sox had an outfield of Troy O’Leary, Darren Lewis and Darren Bragg and actually (gasp!) made the postseason....

 

Very exciting!

 

In 2002, we had Manny, Damon and Nixon, and missed the playoffs.