A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Elktonnick]

Reading comprehension was never your strong suit.

 

touche

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Joel Sherman on MLBN: Renfroe is just the beginning. Executives around the league keep saying watch the Red Sox. Chance to be a top 5 offense and they are in on pitching, in on Odorizzi, in on bullpen.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

Joel Sherman on MLBN: Renfroe is just the beginning. Executives around the league keep saying watch the Red Sox. Chance to be a top 5 offense and they are in on pitching, in on Odorizzi, in on bullpen.

 

If we sign Odorizzi and a decent relief pitcher can trade for someone like Taillon (Pitt) and Anderson (TB), we could be viewed as a serious contender- not top 3 or 4, but still...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Cora says that health issues do Josh Taylor and Darwinzon Hernandez left ‘a big gap’ in the Red Sox bullpen last year. If both are back to health, he feels good about the shape of the bullpen, even as Team continues to explore upgrades. ‘There’s versatility in our bullpen.’

 

I think "versatility" is code for "we have zero idea where to slot each guy."

[moonslav59]

 

I think "versatility" is code for "we have zero idea where to slot each guy."

 

Yes, agreed, but we do have a few guys that can go 2-3 innings as well as a partial inning.

[mvp 78]

Yes, agreed, but we do have a few guys that can go 2-3 innings as well as a partial inning.

 

Well, I should hope that a guy who goes 3 innings can also pitch a partial inning. Is the 3 batter rule still in effect?

[moonslav59]

Well, I should hope that a guy who goes 3 innings can also pitch a partial inning. Is the 3 batter rule still in effect?

 

I'm assuming, yes.

 

I'm of the mind our pen needs additions, badly. At minimum, I'd like to see us get two solid RP'ers, including a closer and set-up man. 3 decent to very good RP'ers might do the trick, too.

[moonslav59]

Here are the Relief IP'd Leaders for the Sox from 2019-2020 combined:

 

IP Pitcher xFIP

91 Walden 4.40 (could be traded or DFA'd)

87 Barnes 3.21 (should be our 2nd set-up man)

80 Brasier 4.63 (should be our 3rd set up man)

78 Workman 3.39 (traded away)

66 Brewer 4.62 (may not make the opening day 26 man roster)

54 Taylor 3.68 (kinda the wildcard for 2021)

53 Weber 3.80 (likely not on the opening day 26 man roster)

49 Hembree 5.57 (traded away)

36 Hernandez 3.56 (could shine in 2021)

34 Velazquez 4.86 (gone)

30 Valdez 4.68 (bubble for 26/40 man roster)

24 Josh Smith 4.51(gone)

23 Cashner 5.00 (gone)

20 Springs 3.70 (40 man roster bubble)

20 Shawaryn 5.76 (off 40 man roster)

19 Thornburg 5.40 (gone)

19 Brice 4.78 (given contract)

10-18 Lakins, Johnson, Covey, Osich, Eovaldi, Stock

 

Ideally, we'd see this for 2021:

 

1. ________ Closer

2. ________ 1st set-up

3. Barnes 2nd set up

4. Brasier 3rd set up

5. D Hern short-long man

6. Taylor

7. ________ (Brice)

8. Whitlock

AAA: Valdez, Brewer, Bazardo, Walden, Springs, Feltman, Hall, Payamps

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

I would not be surprised to see Taylor in WOO at the start of the season.

 

His stuff was greatly diminished last season (likely due to COVID) so he really needs to earn his spot. It's not like his repertoire is amazing, just a run of the mill below average FB/above average Slider. He's basically a left handed Walden.

[moonslav59]

I would not be surprised to see Taylor in WOO at the start of the season.

 

His stuff was greatly diminished last season (likely due to COVID) so he really needs to earn his spot. It's not like his repertoire is amazing, just a run of the mill below average FB/above average Slider. He's basically a left handed Walden.

 

He's okay for the 7-9 slot in the pen, but yes, ideally it would be better if he was AAAA depth.

 

The Whitlock pick takes up one slot.

[moonslav59]

Here's a trade BTV accepted:

 

BOS: Taillon & Stallings

PHI: Vazquez & Chavis

PIT: Abel & Marcham

[mvp 78]

Here's a trade BTV accepted:

 

BOS: Taillon & Stallings

PHI: Vazquez & Chavis

PIT: Abel & Marcham

 

3 team trades don't happen all that often. I think Vaz is on this roster until his contract ends, if not longer.

[moonslav59]

3 team trades don't happen all that often. I think Vaz is on this roster until his contract ends, if not longer.

 

He's not all that great with maximizing the staff's potential, and his defense is marginal.

 

His contract is a plus- for us and other teams.

 

Our minor league, ML ready catching depth is weak, so trading him means we have to refill the slot he leaves open, so that's why I included Stallings.

 

Wong or Grullon might shine, but we shouldn't hold our breath on them.

[mvp 78]

He's not all that great with maximizing the staff's potential, and his defense is marginal.

 

His contract is a plus- for us and other teams.

 

Our minor league, ML ready catching depth is weak, so trading him means we have to refill the slot he leaves open, so that's why I included Stallings.

 

Wong or Grullon might shine, but we shouldn't hold our breath on them.

 

Vaz is the only decent fielding Catcher the Sox have. Grullon, Plawecki and Wong are all a little too lackluster behind the dish. Maybe it's not a big deal when robot umps come, but I think Vaz has decent value to the Sox in the meantime.

[moonslav59]

3 team trades don't happen all that often. I think Vaz is on this roster until his contract ends, if not longer.

 

You might like this one, although Pitt may not:

 

Beni, Groome & Arauz

for

Polanco ($dump but .759 v RHPs), Taillon, Frazier (2B) and Bell (1B)

 

Or, this one:

 

Chavis, Chatham, Ward and Yorke

 

for

 

Taillon, Frazier & Bell

Edited December 17, 2020 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Vaz is the only decent fielding Catcher the Sox have. Grullon, Plawecki and Wong are all a little too lackluster behind the dish. Maybe it's not a big deal when robot umps come, but I think Vaz has decent value to the Sox in the meantime.

 

Pitcher ERAs suffer when Vaz is catching vs almost anyone else catching them.

[mvp 78]

Pitcher ERAs suffer when Vaz is catching vs almost anyone else catching them.

 

CERA isn't real.

[moonslav59]

CERA isn't real.

 

It is when you use it only pitcher by pitcher- same year with each different catcher on the same team.

 

When the numbers continue to show almost every pitcher does better with "the other" catcher, a red flag should be flown.

[mvp 78]

It is when you use it only pitcher by pitcher- same year with each different catcher on the same team.

 

When the numbers continue to show almost every pitcher does better with "the other" catcher, a red flag should be flown.

 

No.

[moonslav59]

Here are some career numbers (I know, I said year by year, same team):

 

ERA with these catchers:

 

Price

2.85 J Molina (473 IP)

2.96 Leon (204)

3.06 Jaso (191)

3.61 Shoppach (162)

4.27 Vaz (360)

 

Sale

2.51 AJ P. (226)

2.79 Leon (436)

2.98 Navarro (97)

3.02 Flowers (552)

3.36 Phegley (88)

3.53 Avila (112)

4.61 Vazquez (88)

 

Porcello

4.17 Avila (578)

4.19 Leon (576)

4.32 Laird (296)

4.96 Vazquez (211)

 

Buchholz

2.83 VMart (241)

3.01 Leon (155)

3.95 Salty (207) Salty, for God's sake!

4.44 Vazquez (130)

 

 

ERod is pretty even with anybody.

 

These are the top 5 Sox pitchers by IP's since Vaz came up.

Edited December 17, 2020 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

No.

 

It's the same defense behind them, the same park and the same season.

 

Yes, other variables come into play, but when you see year after year and different back-up catchers getting better numbers almost every time, I have to say,

 

YES!

[mvp 78]

It's the same defense behind them, the same park and the same season.

 

Yes, other variables come into play, but when you see year after year and different back-up catchers getting better numbers almost every time, I have to say,

 

YES!

 

Bill James hates CERA. Baseball Prospectus hates CERA. It's a deeply flawed stat, maybe even worse than pitcher wins.

[moonslav59]

Pitchers with Catchers OPS Against

 

2018

with Vaz/ with Leon

 

Porcello

Leon .693 (785)

Vaz N/A (never caught Porcello in 2018)

 

ERod

Leon .380 (46)

Vaz .709 (507 PAs)

 

 

Price

Leon .587 (328)

Vaz .780 (394)

 

Sale

Leon .515 (426)

Vaz .569 (191)

 

Velazquez

Leon .738 (95)

Vaz .766 (180)

 

Wright

Leon .574 (45)

Vaz .649 (174)

 

Pom

Leon .910 (101)

Vaz .998 (141)

 

These are not cherry-picked pitchers. They are the top IP pitchers with each catcher. Yes, some sample sizes are warped in one pitcher's favor, but every single pitcher did better with Leon.

 

2017

 

Sale

Leon .585 (824)

Vaz 1.138 (27)

 

Porcello

Leon .824 (709)

Vaz .831 (311)

 

Pomeranz

Vaz .697 (721)

Leon 1.297 (19) very small sample size

 

ERod

Leon .000 (3) very small SS

Vaz .740 (579)

 

Price

Leon .000 (3) very small SS

Vaz .666 (311)

 

Fister

Leon .666 (255)

Vaz .845 (137)

 

Kelly

Leon .546 (98)

Vaz .648 (127)

 

Johnson

Leon .741 (96)

Vaz 1.127 (25)

 

Some wild variations in sample sizes, but it's clear most id way better with Leon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Bill James hates CERA. Baseball Prospectus hates CERA. It's a deeply flawed stat, maybe even worse than pitcher wins.

 

They hate it, because people use it to compare a catcher with the Sox vs a catcher with the Yanks, and I agree, that's dumb.

[mvp 78]

Some wild variations in sample sizes, but it's clear most id way better with Leon.

 

Living the high life with that 34 WRC+.

 

The sample sizes ruin any argument you have.

[moonslav59]

Living the high life with that 34 WRC+.

The sample sizes ruin any argument you have.

 

If you look at the pitchers with significant sample sizes with both catchers, it's nearly a shut out in Leon's favor.

 

While warped variations in sample sizes with some pitchers can be ignored, when you see the vast majority all favor Leon, it adds to the case made against Vaz.

 

All the small sample sizes add up to the same conclusion- year after year.

 

If you throw out any match up where one catcher has less than 45 PAs from 2017-2018, the score is 10-0 in Leon's favor.

 

If you only count sample sizes of 95+ PAs with both catchers (like Dalbec's 2020 season), the score is 7-0 Leon.

 

It's 4-0 when using 135+ PAs by both.

 

If you add PAs from 2017-2018 together and use 300+ PAs as the min sample size, Leon wins 2-0, with Porcello and Price. He's ahead with Sale, but Vaz only has 228 PAs, and Pom where Leon only has 120 PAs.

 

Yes, small sample sizes should not count, but when everyone shows Leon did better than Vaz and the ones that do have large enough sample sizes all show Leon doing better, why shouldn't it matter?

 

Plus, we're talking about ERA differentials of over a run in many cases.

 

ERod is the only starter who bucks the trend or no big variation, and even with him, Leon does slightly better.

[moonslav59]

When people say VTek had a better CERA than Posada, that's crazy and useless.

 

When you compare catchers on the same team, the same years and only against the same pitchers-one by one, it shows value.

 

Just looking at total CERA between 2 catchers on the same team in the same year is not useful, since some pitchers only throw to one catcher or almost all to one catcher.

 

Pitcher by Pitcher shows something useful.

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski discusses the 2021 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-projections-boston-red-sox/

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on the Red Sox...

 

Red Sox Rumors: Outfield, Rotation, Second Base, Barnes

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski discusses the 2021 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

I can get to excited about ZIPS projections. It's not like ZIPS predicted the bottom to fall out for JD or Beni last year.