Sale to IL with elbow injury

[moonslav59]

Here is where the rubber meets the road with the pen.

 

The Yanks have had the most save opportunities in baseball at 70. Now this counts any lead 3 or less or when the tying run reaches the on deck circle in the 7th or beyond. The Yanks are 8th in save percentage in baseball at 68.6%. There is no real significant difference between 8th and 6th. But of the seven teams ahead of the Yanks, only 3 are playoff teams. The other 4 are horrible teams with good closers. Far less save opportunities but their closer locks them down. Of the 7 ahead of the Yanks, they’re all 18 or more save opportunities below the Yanks in number. We’ve had far more chances and have used far more pitchers in save chances because of this. And even with the vastly higher opportunities, we’ve still locked them down better than 22 other squads.

 

The Sox have the worst save percentage in baseball right now at 51%. They’re also 18th in save opportunities. There’s where your team lacks. Your rotation isn’t handing leads off or your offense isn’t handing leads off to your pen. When your pen takes over close leads, they blow half of them.

 

You fail to mention or give credit for all the games the pen started out behind and kept the team in the game for a win or to take the starter off the hook for the loss.

 

Starter lets up 5 runs in 5 IP. Team comes back and takes the lead. Pen let's up 2 runs in 4 IP and gets a BS and all the blame for the loss.

 

Where's the justice?

 

Now, that didn't happen in every game, and certainly the pen blew way too many games, but do you really blame the pen fully, when they often let up way less runs per IP in games with the Blown saves?

 

Earlier this season, I did a breakdown of every game, and who pitched better or worse in our wins and losses. It looked very clear that the pen was more responsible for more wins than the starters, and the starters were more responsible for more losses than the pen.

 

Look for yourself.

 

Yes, the pen sucked, but the starters sucked more and are more responsible for the turn around than the pen. Easily.

[moonslav59]

I am not discrediting Workman . Workman , without a doubt , is having the best season of his career . The closer's job is to get saves . Brandon only has 8 saves . He has only recently taken over the closer's role . Why is that ? Who's fault is that ? I think the next highest total is Brazier , who has 6 or 7 , with probably an equal amount of blown saves . Not good .

 

Workman cam into the game in 28 save situations and has 15 holds, 8 saves and 5 BS's. I'd say that's pretty decent.

 

Chapman has had 40 save situations and has 35 saves, 0 holds and 5 BS's.

[dgalehouse]

So your entire argument that the only difference between the two teams rests on a career closer being better in one category than a pitcher whose only had the role for 3 weeks?

 

The Sox built their team to have the best rotation in the American League. It's where they spent all their money. The rotation failed. Those 5 pitchers make more money that the entire salaries of one of the teams the Sox are currently chasing for a WC spot. They SHOULD be among the best rotations in the game. The fact that they are performing worse than the Yankees rotation - which is their weak spot - should at least say SOMETHING to you...

It is so obvious that the Yankee's bullpen is better than ours , that it really goes without saying . There is nothing more I can add . As for the starters ; D.D. went all chintzy on the bullpen and spent most of the payroll building the rotation . A rotation that has been described on these pages as " maybe the best in the game ." Now , the rotation sucks . And D.D. needs to be terminated. Even after three straight A.L. East titles and one World Series championship , he needs to be terminated . After all ,he is the architect of " the best rotation in the game " that went sour , so he needs to be fired. That seems to be the prevailing wisdom at this time . As for me , I still say what I said back in February , free up enough money to assemble a first class bullpen with a legitimate closer . Sad to say , that wasn't done . I think it should again be the priority this off season. I am done trying to convince others of this . Amen .

[dgalehouse]

Workman cam into the game in 28 save situations and has 15 holds, 8 saves and 5 BS's. I'd say that's pretty decent.

 

Chapman has had 40 save situations and has 35 saves, 0 holds and 5 BS's.

 

The Yankees are not dumb enough to use Chapman in the ( trendy ) leverage situation in the 7th inning because the " good hitters " are coming up . There is no way he is going to get a " hold " in that manner . And the Yankees have quality set up men anyway .

[moonslav59]

It is so obvious that the Yankee's bullpen is better than ours , that it really goes without saying . There is nothing more I can add . As for the starters ; D.D. went all chintzy on the bullpen and spent most of the payroll building the rotation . A rotation that has been described on these pages as " maybe the best in the game ." Now , the rotation sucks . And D.D. needs to be terminated. Even after three straight A.L. East titles and one World Series championship , he needs to be terminated . After all ,he is the architect of " the best rotation in the game " that went sour , so he needs to be fired. That seems to be the prevailing wisdom at this time . As for me , I still say what I said back in February , free up enough money to assemble a first class bullpen with a legitimate closer . Sad to say , that wasn't done . I think it should again be the priority this off season. I am done trying to convince others of this . Amen .

 

Nobody has ever said the Sox pen is as good as the Yanks.

 

The point was about what area is mostly to blame for the massive shift in the standing from 2018 to 2019.

 

Most feel it is a combination of things, but you only blame the pen, despite oddles of evidence that shows our starters got worse by more than our pen from 2018 to 2019.

 

You choose to blame only the pen, because the Yankee pen is way better than ours, despite the fact that the disparity between the two pens was greater last year- the year we won the whole thing.

 

You choose to ignore the game by game analysis I did that clearly showed the starters lost more games for us than the pen and the pen won more games for us that the starters.

 

Amen and good night.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees are not dumb enough to use Chapman in the ( trendy ) leverage situation in the 7th inning because the " good hitters " are coming up . There is no way he is going to get a " hold " in that manner . And the Yankees have quality set up men anyway .

 

The Yankee pen is way better than ours. I'm not sure why you keep arguing against straw men.

 

Was the Yankee pen way better than ours last year? (Hint, their top 3 guys were way better last year.)

 

The Yankee starters got worse by much more than their pen, but that doesn't mean our pen is the only, let alone the main reason we are where we are.

[notin]

It is so obvious that the Yankee's bullpen is better than ours , that it really goes without saying . There is nothing more I can add . As for the starters ; D.D. went all chintzy on the bullpen and spent most of the payroll building the rotation . A rotation that has been described on these pages as " maybe the best in the game ." Now , the rotation sucks . And D.D. needs to be terminated. Even after three straight A.L. East titles and one World Series championship , he needs to be terminated . After all ,he is the architect of " the best rotation in the game " that went sour , so he needs to be fired. That seems to be the prevailing wisdom at this time . As for me , I still say what I said back in February , free up enough money to assemble a first class bullpen with a legitimate closer . Sad to say , that wasn't done . I think it should again be the priority this off season. I am done trying to convince others of this . Amen .

 

Oh I would have fired him in March.

 

But the Sox issues were the rotation. Their bullpen was actually better than I expected...

[dgalehouse]

Oh I would have fired him in March.

 

But the Sox issues were the rotation. Their bullpen was actually better than I expected...

 

They overachieved . Only blew half of their save opportunities .

[bkzwhitestrican]

Runs in baseball are up by 9% this year (is it due to worse pitching or the juiced ball?) so you may have to handicap this year's ERAs when comparing to last year.

[moonslav59]

Runs in baseball are up by 9% this year (is it due to worse pitching or the juiced ball?) so you may have to handicap this year's ERAs when comparing to last year.

 

That's why I use ERA- or ERA+.

[Bellhorn04]

They overachieved . Only blew half of their save opportunities .

 

For a man who is regularly complaining about stat nerds spoiling the game, you sure have a fondness for the stats on saves.

[dgalehouse]

For a man who is regularly complaining about stat nerds spoiling the game, you sure have a fondness for the stats on saves.

 

Yeah. I think it is important. Not so much the stat itself , but what it represents. You have the lead late in the game . A game you could / should win . But it's not easy . Only a few guys can do it consistently.

[notin]

They overachieved . Only blew half of their save opportunities .

 

Right. If only Dombrowski had brought in a closer we'd be in first place. Is that what you're saying?

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah. I think it is important. Not so much the stat itself , but what it represents. You have the lead late in the game . A game you could / should win . But it's not easy . Only a few guys can do it consistently.

 

The odd thing is, Workman has been excellent since basically becoming the closer.

 

And the pen in general has been excellent in August.

 

And yet, we're a dismal 11-12 in August.

 

Why? Because our rotation is basically a shell.

 

What else can explain that 11-12 record with such good relief pitching?

[dgalehouse]

Right. If only Dombrowski had brought in a closer we'd be in first place. Is that what you're saying?

 

The master of exaggeration strikes again . Are you saying if we fired Dombrowski, we would be undefeated?

[notin]

The master of exaggeration strikes again . Are you saying if we fired Dombrowski, we would be undefeated?

 

Well you wanted a closer, and even suggested only a few people can do it.

 

The Sox have a lot of blown saves, but the overwhelming majority have come in the 6th through 8th innings. They've only blown six 9th inning leads all year, or one more than Kimbrel blew last season. (And the Sox are 2-4 in those games.) Considering that's all spread out among a ton of pitchers, "closer" isn't the Sox problem nearly as much as just having too many mediocre relievers is.

 

I never got why they were so enamored with Ryan Brasier and his 32IP in the past 5 years.

 

But this is supposed to be a team built on the rotation, and the rotation that got us to the WS last season has failed miserably this year...

[notin]

The odd thing is, Workman has been excellent since basically becoming the closer.

 

And the pen in general has been excellent in August.

 

And yet, we're a dismal 11-12 in August.

 

Why? Because our rotation is basically a shell.

 

What else can explain that 11-12 record with such good relief pitching?

 

Must be that offense that was only 6th in MLB in runs scored...

[dgalehouse]

Well you wanted a closer, and even suggested only a few people can do it.

 

The Sox have a lot of blown saves, but the overwhelming majority have come in the 6th through 8th innings. They've only blown six 9th inning leads all year, or one more than Kimbrel blew last season. (And the Sox are 2-4 in those games.) Considering that's all spread out among a ton of pitchers, "closer" isn't the Sox problem nearly as much as just having too many mediocre relievers is.

 

I never got why they were so enamored with Ryan Brasier and his 32IP in the past 5 years.

 

But this is supposed to be a team built on the rotation, and the rotation that got us to the WS last season has failed miserably this year...

 

Not sure how the narrative became that the team was built on the rotation. Maybe Dombrowski said it . Better than admitting that he neglected the pen , I guess . The bullpen starts with the closer , but you need more than that . You need several quality relievers . I'm pretty sure you know that , but you do like to be difficult. There are blown saves before the ninth of course. But the idea is still to go out there and hold the lead for one inning. And I have heard it said before that blown saves can be demoralizing to the staff . Of course there is no way to know that for sure . But I think it helps when things are going smoothly and you win most of the games you are leading late . There really is no more to say . There is a group of posters who see things differently . I have my own opinion. And I have been consistent in it since before the season. So be it .

Edited August 27, 2019 by dgalehouse

[notin]

Not sure how the narrative became that the team was built on the rotation. Maybe Dombrowski said it . Better than admitting that he neglected the pen , I guess . The bullpen starts with the closer , but you need more than that . You need several quality relievers . I'm pretty sure you know that , but you do like to be difficult. There are blown saves before the ninth of course. But the idea is still to go out there and hold the lead for one inning. And I have heard it said before that blown saves can be demoralizing to the staff . Of course there is no way to know that for sure . But I think it helps when things are going smoothly and you win most of the games you are leading late . There really is no more to say . There is a group of posters who see things differently . I have my own opinion. And I have been consistent in it since before the season. So be it .

 

He spent about $87mill on the 5 pitchers in the rotation and about $9mill on the bullpen, and that bullpen money includes some deadweight like Thornburg and Wright.

 

 

While he didn't verbalize "This team is built on the rotation!" he did spend money on the rotation and extended Sale and did absolutely nothing about the bullpen. I hate how he ignored the bullpen, but the bullpen has not really been the same level of problem the rotation is.

 

And "Blown Saves" are sort of a misleading stat. First off, they're not all loses. And while they do represent a lead that went unheld, that doesn't even mean a relief pitcher had a bad outing. Workman had at least one blown save this year when he didn't even give up a hit (against Texas). I bet other Sox relievers did as well. Sometimes blown saves are the fault of the SP or another RP because an inherited runner scored. Heck an error by an infielder and an unearned run can cause a blown save (which is what happened to Workman in Texas).

 

Think about it. If a reliever comes in with the bases loaded and none out and is trying to protect a one run lead, he can induce a 4-6-3 double play, and be charged with..... a blown save. Sure that instance doesn't happen often, but that's a really weird outcome. The relief pitcher came up with the best possible outcome for that hitter, and statistically he gets nailed with a Blown Save. It's another stat with uses that can be misleading.

 

A lot of blown saves are not from pitching poorly, just from really tough situations. Except the blown saves from Ryan Brasier. Those were all from pitching poorly...

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of blown saves are not from pitching poorly, just from really tough situations. Except the blown saves from Ryan Brasier. Those were all from pitching poorly...

 

Brasier did have a few nasty ones. He has hung in there and pitched pretty well lately, FWIW.

[notin]

Brasier did have a few nasty ones. He has hung in there and pitched pretty well lately, FWIW.

 

Brasier had a horrific tendency to give up key home runs to guys at the bottom of the order...

[Slasher9]

dollar for dollar

Red Sox Pen > Yankees Pen

and it aint even close.

[dgalehouse]

There is not a whole lot that can be done about the rotation. Porcello is probably gone , and possibly replaced by Hernandez . E - Rod seems like a keeper. But Eovaldi , Price and Sale will be on the books for a while at big money. We can only hope that they get healthy and stay healthy. That is a lot to ask for considering their ages and health histories. Once again , like the proverbial broken record, I suggest getting rid of as much dead wood as possible to free up the money to build a strong , deep bullpen. I absolutely believe that is the way to go in baseball today .

[moonslav59]

There is not a whole lot that can be done about the rotation. Porcello is probably gone , and possibly replaced by Hernandez . E - Rod seems like a keeper. But Eovaldi , Price and Sale will be on the books for a while at big money. We can only hope that they get healthy and stay healthy. That is a lot to ask for considering their ages and health histories. Once again , like the proverbial broken record, I suggest getting rid of as much dead wood as possible to free up the money to build a strong , deep bullpen. I absolutely believe that is the way to go in baseball today .

 

Just wondering, do you consider any of Price, Sale or Eovaldi "dead wood?"

 

If yes, how much of their contracts would you pay to trade them for basically nothing or a long shot prospect with promise?

 

If no, who is the deadwood?

(Pedey is untradable)

JD?

 

Arb Guys?

JBJ?

Leon? (wont make much anyways)

Wright? (see Leon)

Hembree?

 

[harmony]

Just wondering, do you consider any of Price, Sale or Eovaldi "dead wood?"

 

If yes, how much of their contracts would you pay to trade them for basically nothing or a long shot prospect with promise?

According to one website, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale have median negative values of $44.8 million, $26.6 million and $14 million, respectively:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[Bellhorn04]

When it comes to those starters, we are between the proverbial rock and hard place. You can either hope that Sale, Price and Eovaldi come back to form or you can try to trade them and eat a pile of money in the process. With the latter you also have to replace them.

 

My guess is we hope.

[dgalehouse]

Just wondering, do you consider any of Price, Sale or Eovaldi "dead wood?"

 

If yes, how much of their contracts would you pay to trade them for basically nothing or a long shot prospect with promise?

 

If no, who is the deadwood?

(Pedey is untradable)

JD?

 

Arb Guys?

JBJ?

Leon? (wont make much anyways)

Wright? (see Leon)

Hembree?

 

 

" Dead wood " might be a little harsh . But if we don't make the post season, there will be changes . Most of those you mentioned would be considered as expendable. I would keep J.D. Martinez. It would be extremely difficult to move those three pitchers. I have no idea what that would take. I think we just have to hope for the best with those three. Losing Porcello, JBJ , Moreland , Pearce , Wright , Cashner , Leon and maybe one or two others would free up some money . Nothing you can do about Pedroia. At least Sandoval will be history.

[notin]

 

Arb Guys?

JBJ?

Leon? (wont make much anyways)

Wright? (see Leon)

Hembree?

 

 

I think all 4 get non-tendered. Hembree might be offered arbitration. Might.

 

And like last year, Leon might be re-signed anyway...

[oldtimer]

" Dead wood " might be a little harsh . But if we don't make the post season, there will be changes . Most of those you mentioned would be considered as expendable. I would keep J.D. Martinez. It would be extremely difficult to move those three pitchers. I have no idea what that would take. I think we just have to hope for the best with those three. Losing Porcello, JBJ , Moreland , Pearce , Wright , Cashner , Leon and maybe one or two others would free up some money . Nothing you can do about Pedroia. At least Sandoval will be history.

 

Do we still owe Sandoval a $5 mil buyout next year. If so, does it count against our salary cap?

[Bellhorn04]

Do we still owe Sandoval a $5 mil buyout next year. If so, does it count against our salary cap?

 

It doesn't count against the 2020 cap. It was already counted in because it was part of the guaranteed money in the contract.