Sale to IL with elbow injury

[dgalehouse]

I get the picture . I warned about the bullpen disparity way back in the off season . And how it could effect our ability to again win the division . There were those who said " no problem " . " The pen will be fine . D.D. did everything right . " Okay . You are right . I give up . The Yankees are beating us , but it's not because of the bullpens . Whatever .

[moonslav59]

 

WAR per Game:

SP'ers

2018:

Sox: 0.088

Yanks: 0.100

 

2019

Sox: 0.067 (.021 worse or 24% worse)

Yanks: 0.062 (.038 worse or 38% worse)

 

The Yankee starters got worse by more than our, too.

[/b]

 

WAR per Game Pen

 

2018:

Sox: 0.034

Yanks: 0.057

 

2019:

Sox: 0.031 (just .003 worse or 9% worse)

Yanks: 0.050 (.007 worse or 12% worse)

[Bellhorn04]

I get the picture . I warned about the bullpen disparity way back in the off season . And how it could effect our ability to again win the division . There were those who said " no problem " . " The pen will be fine . D.D. did everything right . " Okay . You are right . I give up . The Yankees are beating us , but it's not because of the bullpens . Whatever .

 

It's all about the I told you so stuff. Seems a little childish to me.

 

I was never one of the people who said our pen would be just fine. I was shocked that DD did so little about it.

 

I'm just pointing out that the collapse of the starting pitching has been the bigger issue. You refuse to accept the facts on that.

[moonslav59]

I get the picture . I warned about the bullpen disparity way back in the off season . And how it could effect our ability to again win the division . There were those who said " no problem " . " The pen will be fine . D.D. did everything right . " Okay . You are right . I give up . The Yankees are beating us , but it's not because of the bullpens . Whatever .

 

The Yankee pen has been better than ours both years.

 

Of course our crappy pen is a big reason for our standings shifts, but so has the SP'ing.

 

You keep ragging on those that said our pen would be fine, although many felt we'd be adding to it this summer, but you rarely put equal or more blame on the starters, and that's who deserves most of the blame. It goes against your preseason position, so "whatever".

[dgalehouse]

The Yankee pen has been better than ours both years.

 

Of course our crappy pen is a big reason for our standings shifts, but so has the SP'ing.

 

You keep ragging on those that said our pen would be fine, although many felt we'd be adding to it this summer, but you rarely put equal or more blame on the starters, and that's who deserves most of the blame. It goes against your preseason position, so "whatever".

I am talking about the reason we are trailing the Yankees . I had said the disparity in the bullpens would be a problem for us this season . Their pen looked a lot better . I think that has played out just as I feared it would . Their starters have struggled just as much as ours . Our offense is as good or better . The only difference , in my opinion , is the bullpens . But I am not going to convince anyone . So be it . We have hit a dead end . Nothing more to say .

[jacksonianmarch]

No, it isn't. Last year their pen had a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. This year it has a 4.05 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.

 

Last year they had had Betances and Robertson. This year they have Britton for a full season and Ottavino.

 

There's nothing to show it's better and deeper this year.

 

And from the sounds of it, Betances will be back soon. If he’s right, the pen is far deeper

[notin]

I get the picture . I warned about the bullpen disparity way back in the off season . And how it could effect our ability to again win the division . There were those who said " no problem " . " The pen will be fine . D.D. did everything right . " Okay . You are right . I give up . The Yankees are beating us , but it's not because of the bullpens . Whatever .

 

Ignoring the bullpen was stupid, but the rotation is what this team is built around and has been disappointing everywhere except ERod...

[moonslav59]

I am talking about the reason we are trailing the Yankees . I had said the disparity in the bullpens would be a problem for us this season . Their pen looked a lot better . I think that has played out just as I feared it would . Their starters have struggled just as much as ours . Our offense is as good or better . The only difference , in my opinion , is the bullpens . But I am not going to convince anyone . So be it . We have hit a dead end . Nothing more to say .

 

It's the "Only difference" part of your argument that doesn't hold water.

 

Our starters got way worse than our pen did from 2018 to 2019. Just because the Yanks starters outpaced us in starter ineptness doesn't make the pen the "only difference."

 

Plus, their pen was way better than ours last year, in fact by more than this year, yet we won last year. That is clear proof it can't possibly be "just the pen."

 

Our whole staff sucked. Both the Yanks and the Sox saw their pens and rotations get worse. The weird thing is the Yankee pen and rotation got worse by more than our pen and rotation, yet the standing more than flipped.

 

There's room for many different theories on why we lost, and to me, the most likely winner is that it was a mix of several things with no one area being the clear culprit and certainly not the "only" or even more than 50% of the reason we suck this year.

 

Our base running got worse. Our fielding got worse, despite big gains at 3B. Our offense stayed about the same while others improved dramatically. Our GM and manager did worse. Our focus and attention declined. Our pen sucked. Our starters sucked. We got snake bit a few times in close games. The umps sucked. The juiced ball helped others more than us.

 

We sucked this year.

 

There's enough blame to go around for just about everyone but maybe a handful of players.

 

[jung]

It's the "Only difference" part of your argument that doesn't hold water.

 

Our starters got way worse than our pen did from 2018 to 2019. Just because the Yanks starters outpaced us in starter ineptness doesn't make the pen the "only difference."

 

Plus, their pen was way better than ours last year, in fact by more than this year, yet we won last year. That is clear proof it can't possibly be "just the pen."

 

Our whole staff sucked. Both the Yanks and the Sox saw their pens and rotations get worse. The weird thing is the Yankee pen and rotation got worse by more than our pen and rotation, yet the standing more than flipped.

 

There's room for many different theories on why we lost, and to me, the most likely winner is that it was a mix of several things with no one area being the clear culprit and certainly not the "only" or even more than 50% of the reason we suck this year.

 

Our base running got worse. Our fielding got worse, despite big gains at 3B. Our offense stayed about the same while others improved dramatically. Our GM and manager did worse. Our focus and attention declined. Our pen sucked. Our starters sucked. We got snake bit a few times in close games. The umps sucked. The juiced ball helped others more than us.

 

We sucked this year.

 

There's enough blame to go around for just about everyone but maybe a handful of players.

 

 

Frankly I would say the popcorn venders are the only guys that escape criticism. I'm not as sure about the hot dog vendors. They might be on shaky ground for next year.

[notin]

It's all about the I told you so stuff. Seems a little childish to me.

 

I was never one of the people who said our pen would be just fine. I was shocked that DD did so little about it.

 

I'm just pointing out that the collapse of the starting pitching has been the bigger issue. You refuse to accept the facts on that.

 

 

And it’s not like any of us were helping build that bullpen.

 

Heck, Dombrowski STILL hasn’t returned any of my calls...

[notin]

Frankly I would say the popcorn venders are the only guys that escape criticism. I'm not as sure about the hot dog vendors. They might be on shaky ground for next year.

 

 

Clearly you are unaware of Fenway Popcorn prices...

[jacksonianmarch]

I keep telling you but you don’t listen. You cannot look at our overall pen numbers. We’ve used an opener a lot.

 

This year, we saw a regression out of the gate from Green, but Kahnle returned in dominant fashion. Green has been good since he came back in June. We lost Betances but added Ottavino. We have a full year of Britton but lost KRob. Holder imploded and hasn’t been internally replaced but he was more an ancillary piece of our pen. With Green better and the guts of our bridge pitching better than the bridge we had last year, we are incredibly effective at locking down leads. Our pen has essentially been middling when trailing or tied but exceptional locking down leads. This is why our pen numbers are skewed

[Bellhorn04]

I keep telling you but you don’t listen. You cannot look at our overall pen numbers. We’ve used an opener a lot.

 

This year, we saw a regression out of the gate from Green, but Kahnle returned in dominant fashion. Green has been good since he came back in June. We lost Betances but added Ottavino. We have a full year of Britton but lost KRob. Holder imploded and hasn’t been internally replaced but he was more an ancillary piece of our pen. With Green better and the guts of our bridge pitching better than the bridge we had last year, we are incredibly effective at locking down leads. Our pen has essentially been middling when trailing or tied but exceptional locking down leads. This is why our pen numbers are skewed

 

I would say your pen is about as good as last year.

 

A better way to look at it might be to just compare the top 4, or top 5 guys for each year.

[jung]

Clearly you are unaware of Fenway Popcorn prices...

 

You could be right about that. I won't even buy movie theater popcorn, the quality is so bad compared to what I make at home.

 

Now the beer at Fenway...I would rate those prices about what I would equate with a market serving addicts.

[Slasher9]

I keep telling you but you don’t listen. You cannot look at our overall pen numbers. We’ve used an opener a lot.

 

those are still relief pitchers coming into the game? the numbers are valid. maybe next year get 5 solid starters so you dont need an "opener"?

so please...keep telling us how relievers coming into the game earlier because of opener "doesn't count"...

[moonslav59]

Frankly I would say the popcorn venders are the only guys that escape criticism. I'm not as sure about the hot dog vendors. They might be on shaky ground for next year.

 

I know sarcasm when I see it -usually - but Devers, Bogey, Vaz, Workman and maybe ERod are, IMO, clearly beyond reproach.

[jung]

I know sarcasm when I see it -usually - but Devers, Bogey, Vaz, Workman and maybe ERod are, IMO, clearly beyond reproach.

 

Ya' got me....them and the popcorn vendors!

[moonslav59]

I keep telling you but you don’t listen. You cannot look at our overall pen numbers. We’ve used an opener a lot.

 

This year, we saw a regression out of the gate from Green, but Kahnle returned in dominant fashion. Green has been good since he came back in June. We lost Betances but added Ottavino. We have a full year of Britton but lost KRob. Holder imploded and hasn’t been internally replaced but he was more an ancillary piece of our pen. With Green better and the guts of our bridge pitching better than the bridge we had last year, we are incredibly effective at locking down leads. Our pen has essentially been middling when trailing or tied but exceptional locking down leads. This is why our pen numbers are skewed

 

Many teams have used the "opener a lot."

 

I get why using the "opener" more often this year might affect the over all numbers to the worse, but pen numbers when trailing and tied do matter.

 

Going by xFIP, the Yanks 2018 vs 2019, pitcher by pitcher:

Pitcher 2018>or

Chapman 2.58 > 2.85 Chapman (almost the same IP)

Robertson 3.09> 4.17 Ottavino (DR with 13 more IP, so far)

Betances 1.95> 3.83 Britton (DB with 14 more IP, so far)

Green 3.19>4.25 Green (36 more IP in 2018)

Holder 4.56

Warren 3.59

 

The Yankee pen was better last year.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I would say your pen is about as good as last year.

 

A better way to look at it might be to just compare the top 4, or top 5 guys for each year.

 

Exactly! Steven Tarpley and others of his ilk have skewed a lot of our numbers. He’s not even making the PO roster.

 

And you also need to consider the looming return of possibly our best pen arm in Betances. He went through the same process as Sevy. Initially a shoulder issue, developed a lat strain. He’s throwing bullpens and is probably 5 days away from a rehab assignment. If he comes back throwing well, he will make this pen even deadlier

[dgalehouse]

The Yankees are 15 games ahead of us . The only thing they have that is superior to ours is the bullpen. I rest my case . You can draw your own conclusions.

[Slasher9]

The Yankees are 15 games ahead of us . The only thing they have that is superior to ours is the bullpen. I rest my case . You can draw your own conclusions.

 

but you do understand that our starters have not done nearly as good in 2019 vs 2018? that is the difference between us winning 90 games vs 108 games.

[moonslav59]

Exactly! Steven Tarpley and others of his ilk have skewed a lot of our numbers. He’s not even making the PO roster.

 

And you also need to consider the looming return of possibly our best pen arm in Betances. He went through the same process as Sevy. Initially a shoulder issue, developed a lat strain. He’s throwing bullpens and is probably 5 days away from a rehab assignment. If he comes back throwing well, he will make this pen even deadlier

 

I just did. See below your post.

 

The 2018 top 5 guys were better in 2018.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees are 15 games ahead of us . The only thing they have that is superior to ours is the bullpen. I rest my case . You can draw your own conclusions.

 

You won't even pay lip service to the decline of our SP'ing. It makes your claim less convincing when you use words like "only."

 

SP'ing 2018-2019:

 

 

2018: 68-38 (56 No decisions)

13 games SP'er left with lead followed by BS/21 games SP'er left while behind but did not get the loss.

22 "Cheap wins" and 5 "Tough losses"

 

2019: 42-44 (46 No decisions)

14 games SP'er left with lead and BS/19 games SP'er left behind and team came back to tie or take lead

11 "Cheap wins" and 6 "Tough losses"

 

The decline is MASSIVE! Ignoring it is worse.

 

Want more?

 

2018:

SP: 3.77 ERA/ .697 OPS Against

RP: 3.72 ERA/ .700 OPS Against

 

2019:

SP: 5.02/ .774 ERA UP 1.25 and OPS UP .077

RP: 4.16/ .722 ERA Up only 0.44 and OPS only up .022.

 

Okay, the save% went from 70% to 51% in 49 games, but the QS% went down from 41% to 36% in every game (132).

 

 

[notin]

The Yankees are 15 games ahead of us . The only thing they have that is superior to ours is the bullpen. I rest my case . You can draw your own conclusions.

 

Weak case.

 

The Yankee rotation (4.82 ERA) has outpitched the Sox rotation (5.02 ERA) by a greater margin in ERA that the difference between the 2 bullpens. Yankee bullpen ERA is 4.02, which the Red Sox is 4.16.

 

Our bullpen is closer to their bullpen than our rotation is to their rotation....

[dgalehouse]

Saves leaders on August 26.

New York - Chapman - 35

Boston - Workman - 8

The next voice you hear will be someone explaining why saves are overrated. And why it's all Porcello's fault anyway .

[fxkatt]

Weak case.

 

The Yankee rotation (4.82 ERA) has outpitched the Sox rotation (5.02 ERA) by a greater margin in ERA that the difference between the 2 bullpens. Yankee bullpen ERA is 4.02, which the Red Sox is 4.16.

 

Our bullpen is closer to their bullpen than our rotation is to their rotation....

 

Numbers often lie. That is, I would trade all our relievers for all of the Yanks relievers in a flash. But I would not trade all our starters for theirs---although this would not be in a flash, given Sale and Price.

[kenmeister]

Saves leaders on August 26.

New York - Chapman - 35

Boston - Workman - 8

The next voice you hear will be someone explaining why saves are overrated. And why it's all Porcello's fault anyway .

 

Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for the Aroldis Chapman vs. Brandon Workman battle royale!

 

Saves

Chapman: 35

Workman: 8

 

Holds

Chapman: 0

Workman: 15

 

Win-Loss record

Chapman: 3-2

Workman: 9-1

 

Innings Pitched

Chapman: 50.2

Workman: 58

 

ERA

Chapman: 2.31

Workman: 2.02

 

WHIP

Chapman: 1.14

Workman: 1.02

 

Strikeouts

Chapman: 75

Workman: 82

 

Wins Above Replacement

Chapman: 1.3

Workman: 2.5

 

You can't seriously be arguing that Aroldis Chapman is a better reliever than Brandon Workman so far this year because he has more saves. Brandon has had a phenomenal year and has only recently taken over the closer's role.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is where the rubber meets the road with the pen.

 

The Yanks have had the most save opportunities in baseball at 70. Now this counts any lead 3 or less or when the tying run reaches the on deck circle in the 7th or beyond. The Yanks are 8th in save percentage in baseball at 68.6%. There is no real significant difference between 8th and 6th. But of the seven teams ahead of the Yanks, only 3 are playoff teams. The other 4 are horrible teams with good closers. Far less save opportunities but their closer locks them down. Of the 7 ahead of the Yanks, they’re all 18 or more save opportunities below the Yanks in number. We’ve had far more chances and have used far more pitchers in save chances because of this. And even with the vastly higher opportunities, we’ve still locked them down better than 22 other squads.

 

The Sox have the worst save percentage in baseball right now at 51%. They’re also 18th in save opportunities. There’s where your team lacks. Your rotation isn’t handing leads off or your offense isn’t handing leads off to your pen. When your pen takes over close leads, they blow half of them.

[dgalehouse]

Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for the Aroldis Chapman vs. Brandon Workman battle royale!

 

Saves

Chapman: 35

Workman: 8

 

Holds

Chapman: 0

Workman: 15

 

Win-Loss record

Chapman: 3-2

Workman: 9-1

 

Innings Pitched

Chapman: 50.2

Workman: 58

 

ERA

Chapman: 2.31

Workman: 2.02

 

WHIP

Chapman: 1.14

Workman: 1.02

 

Strikeouts

Chapman: 75

Workman: 82

 

Wins Above Replacement

Chapman: 1.3

Workman: 2.5

 

You can't seriously be arguing that Aroldis Chapman is a better reliever than Brandon Workman so far this year because he has more saves. Brandon has had a phenomenal year and has only recently taken over the closer's role.

 

I am not discrediting Workman . Workman , without a doubt , is having the best season of his career . The closer's job is to get saves . Brandon only has 8 saves . He has only recently taken over the closer's role . Why is that ? Who's fault is that ? I think the next highest total is Brazier , who has 6 or 7 , with probably an equal amount of blown saves . Not good .

[notin]

Saves leaders on August 26.

New York - Chapman - 35

Boston - Workman - 8

The next voice you hear will be someone explaining why saves are overrated. And why it's all Porcello's fault anyway .

 

So your entire argument that the only difference between the two teams rests on a career closer being better in one category than a pitcher whose only had the role for 3 weeks?

 

The Sox built their team to have the best rotation in the American League. It's where they spent all their money. The rotation failed. Those 5 pitchers make more money that the entire salaries of one of the teams the Sox are currently chasing for a WC spot. They SHOULD be among the best rotations in the game. The fact that they are performing worse than the Yankees rotation - which is their weak spot - should at least say SOMETHING to you...