Countdown to Playoffs - 2019 edition

[oldtimer]

I'm not expecting greatness or even decency. I'm just wanting to see more before we cut ties or try someone else.

 

We may have better prospects. He hasn't shown the ability to be a starting pitcher for us going forward. Best to cut ties and find better.

[kenmeister]

We may have better prospects. He hasn't shown the ability to be a starting pitcher for us going forward. Best to cut ties and find better.

 

Is it just me, or does Cora never let Johnson go through the learning curve of how to pitch out of a jam?

[oldtimer]

Is it just me, or does Cora never let Johnson go through the learning curve of how to pitch out of a jam?

 

Maybe it's just you!

[jung]

Maybe it's just you!

 

We were down 3-2 last night when Cora pulled Johnson in the 4th. Given the circumstances, there was zero chance of Cora leaving BJ in through the 5th as Cora could not assume that the Sox would came back and gain the lead in the bottom of the 4th and he certainly was not going to risk BJ in the 5th. In other words, there was literally no reason to leave Johnson in at the point he was removed if the matchup dictated otherwise.

 

BJ was not going to stay in long enough to get a win. Nola was totally dominating our RH hitters which is where the bulk of our offense resides in spite of Rafi and Beni. Last actual shot we had at winning that game was bottom of the 7th when we had Beni leading off followed by Vaz who was giving us our best RH AB's v Nola followed by three LH hitters in a row. Nola basically mowed them down and that was that.

Edited August 21, 2019 by jung

[kenmeister]

We were down 3-2 last night when Cora pulled Johnson in the 4th. Given the circumstances, there was zero chance of Cora leaving BJ in through the 5th as Cora could not assume that the Sox would came back and gain the lead in the bottom of the 4th and he certainly was not going to risk BJ in the 5th. In other words, there was literally no reason to leave Johnson in at the point he was removed if the matchup dictated otherwise.

 

BJ was not going to stay in long enough to get a win. Nola was totally dominating our RH hitters which is where the bulk of our offense resides in spite of Rafi and Beni. Last actual shot we had at winning that game was bottom of the 7th when we had Beni leading off followed by Vaz who was giving us our best RH AB's v Nola followed by three LH hitters in a row. Nola basically mowed them down and that was that.

 

My point is that I don't think Cora knows how to "grow" a pitcher. He has a quick hook, and I've read in the past how pitchers need to learn how to work their way out of jams, even if that means losing some games to do so. Given that we are out of the playoff hunt for 2019, this seems like an excellent time to give players learning opportunities.

[Bellhorn04]

My point is that I don't think Cora knows how to "grow" a pitcher. He has a quick hook, and I've read in the past how pitchers need to learn how to work their way out of jams, even if that means losing some games to do so. Given that we are out of the playoff hunt for 2019, this seems like an excellent time to give players learning opportunities.

 

Cora was trying to win last night's game, which was absolutely the right thing to do.

[Larry33]

I believe the Sox will make the playoffs. 2 out of 3 from the Philies is almost a must. But as we head into the "easer Pitching" seaspn. I can see the opposing pitchiing staffs coming back to our staff, and the huge advantage we have in offense will be the difference. SUGGESTIONS1:

 

ERod on 4 day routine. 5 innings, each, max.

Price on 5 day routing, 4 innings, max

Purcell a;so on 5 day with 3 innings max

 

Rest of the routines

Pick, em", 3 - 4 innings, max.

 

Take Trout put of the picture, and we have 4 of the BEST HITTERS in the A,ERICAN LEAGUE!

 

C'MPM, MAN!!!!

 

Well the odds aren't certainly in their favor to do so they list the Red Sox as having a 2.3% of making the postseason and 0.2% winning the WS.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-playoff-odds.shtml

[jung]

My point is that I don't think Cora knows how to "grow" a pitcher. He has a quick hook, and I've read in the past how pitchers need to learn how to work their way out of jams, even if that means losing some games to do so. Given that we are out of the playoff hunt for 2019, this seems like an excellent time to give players learning opportunities.

 

No Red Sox Manager will ever be allowed by upper management to act like he is out of it until he is mathematically eliminated. You would be kidding yourself to think otherwise.

 

Example: Look at how the NESN studio crew has handled the Sale Elbow. Wakefield just Sunday: "He has some inflammation in the elbow. [shrugs shoulders]. He rests and comes back to pitch."

 

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING WAKE! Not only do you know better from experience. Being a Sox insider, you likely knew better on Sunday IN FACT.

 

Cora won't really be able to act like he is out of it until he is actually out of it. Neither will anybody else in that organization. Every personnel move will be a move designed to "help our chances to win" etc etc etc....until we are mathematically eliminated.

 

"Welcome to the Sox PR department Alex. They have some recommendations for you....to go along with the recommendations from the data information services dept."

[Bellhorn04]

Well the odds aren't certainly in their favor to do so they list the Red Sox as having a 2.3% of making the postseason and 0.2% winning the WS.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-playoff-odds.shtml

 

You don't need to be a math whiz to know our chances our slim.

 

Here's the thing, though. If the Sox get really lucky they might get to within 4 games going to September.

 

Would anyone really think it was over being 4 games back with a month to go?

 

Of course if we fall to 8 back instead we're toast.

[kenmeister]

No Red Sox Manager will ever be allowed by upper management to act like he is out of it until he is mathematically eliminated. You would be kidding yourself to think otherwise.

 

Example: Look at how the NESN studio crew has handled the Sale Elbow. Wakefield just Sunday: "He has some inflammation in the elbow. [shrugs shoulders]. He rests and comes back to pitch."

 

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING WAKE! Not only do you know better from experience. Being a Sox insider, you likely knew better on Sunday IN FACT.

 

Cora won't really be able to act like he is out of it until he is actually out of it. Neither will anybody else in that organization. Every personnel move will be a move designed to "help our chances to win" etc etc etc....until we are mathematically eliminated.

 

"Welcome to the Sox PR department Alex. They have some recommendations for you....to go along with the recommendations from the data information services dept."

 

You're probably right. It's too bad though, because it feels to me like Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Weber, and others could use some seasoning.

[S5Dewey]

You don't need to be a math whiz to know our chances our slim.

 

Here's the thing, though. If the Sox get really lucky they might get to within 4 games going to September.

 

Would anyone really think it was over being 4 games back with a month to go?

 

Of course if we fall to 8 back instead we're toast.

 

This^^. Although I'm disappointed in where this team is I haven't actually given up. I'm just realistic enough to know that it probably (that's probably, not definitely) ain't gonna happen.

[Slasher9]

Well the odds aren't certainly in their favor to do so they list the Red Sox as having a 2.3% of making the postseason and 0.2% winning the WS.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-playoff-odds.shtml

 

did you watch the 2017 super bowl?. the winning team had a 0.2% chance of winning that game deep into the 3rd quarter.

[Bellhorn04]

This^^. Although I'm disappointed in where this team is I haven't actually given up. I'm just realistic enough to know that it probably (that's probably, not definitely) ain't gonna happen.

 

Same.

[Bellhorn04]

You're probably right. It's too bad though, because it feels to me like Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Weber, and others could use some seasoning.

 

Johnson and Velazquez are not unseasoned at all. They pitched a combined 184.1 innings for us last year.

[S5Dewey]

did you watch the 2017 super bowl?. the winning team had a 0.2% chance of winning that game deep into the 3rd quarter.

 

I still can't believe that actually happened. If Brady's performance didn't silence those people who think there's no such thing as clutch....I simply don't know what to say.

[OH FOY]

Still on the Rally Train for me. Never give up.

[Slasher9]

Still on the Rally Train for me. Never give up.

 

we got this.

[Slasher9]

I still can't believe that actually happened. If Brady's performance didn't silence those people who think there's no such thing as clutch....I simply don't know what to say.

 

clutch and chock are real. that 1 particular game is argument ender.

[Bellhorn04]

clutch and chock are real. that 1 particular game is argument ender.

 

Brady is clutch, no question.

 

Being clutch in baseball is a whole different thing. It's a completely different kind of game.

[kenmeister]

Johnson and Velazquez are not unseasoned at all. They pitched a combined 184.1 innings for us last year.

 

Johnson could, for instance, have 30 starts of 3 innings each, thus giving him 90 innings, and that sounds like a lot, but the truth is I think he needs how to learn to face hitters the 2nd and 3rd times through the order, and you really can't do that unless you pitch into the 6th on a regular basis. I've seen other Sox managers allow young pitchers to learn; Cora has the quickest hook of any I remember and I maintain that's a "win now" strategy which worked last year, but this year I think we need to groom players for next year. Now you could argue, perhaps very successfully, that this crop doesn't have the stuff to pitch 6 regularly anyway.

[moonslav59]

Johnson could, for instance, have 30 starts of 3 innings each, thus giving him 90 innings, and that sounds like a lot, but the truth is I think he needs how to learn to face hitters the 2nd and 3rd times through the order, and you really can't do that unless you pitch into the 6th on a regular basis. I've seen other Sox managers allow young pitchers to learn; Cora has the quickest hook of any I remember and I maintain that's a "win now" strategy which worked last year, but this year I think we need to groom players for next year. Now you could argue, perhaps very successfully, that this crop doesn't have the stuff to pitch 6 regularly anyway.

 

I get your point, but I offer this:

 

If a pitcher can get through 9 batters in good shape, he is worth keeping around.

 

I'm not saying Johnson has proved he can do even this, but if he does well for the rest of the season, he'll have an inside shot at making the 25 man roster, next year. (He's out of options.)

 

2019:

1st time PAs (as SP): .646 (2nd best on Sox)/1.281 as RP'er in 30 PAs

2nd time PAs: 1.133 OPS (2nd worst on Sox)/ 1.85 as RP'er in 5 PAs

 

Career:

.780 1st PA as SP/ .827 as RP

.852 2nd PA as SP/.856 as RP

 

Maybe we should use him like the Rays do sometimes: start him, and let him go 9 batters, then bring in the "real" SP'er. This will lessen the innings our pen needs.

 

[kenmeister]

I get your point, but I offer this:

 

If a pitcher can get through 9 batters in good shape, he is worth keeping around.

 

I'm not saying Johnson has proved he can do even this, but if he does well for the rest of the season, he'll have an inside shot at making the 25 man roster, next year. (He's out of options.)

 

2019:

1st time PAs (as SP): .646 (2nd best on Sox)/1.281 as RP'er in 30 PAs

2nd time PAs: 1.133 OPS (2nd worst on Sox)/ 1.85 as RP'er in 5 PAs

 

Career:

.780 1st PA as SP/ .827 as RP

.852 2nd PA as SP/.856 as RP

 

Maybe we should use him like the Rays do sometimes: start him, and let him go 9 batters, then bring in the "real" SP'er. This will lessen the innings our pen needs.

 

 

Those numbers tell quite a story. .646 is actually impressive, and makes me want to give him a chance at 5-6 starts in a row where he stays in 6 innings come hell or high water (which admittedly you can only do once you've thrown in the towel) because he just needs to learn how to pitch the 2nd and 3rd times through the order.

[jung]

Those numbers tell quite a story. .646 is actually impressive, and makes me want to give him a chance at 5-6 starts in a row where he stays in 6 innings come hell or high water (which admittedly you can only do once you've thrown in the towel) because he just needs to learn how to pitch the 2nd and 3rd times through the order.

 

I like BJ mainly because he is a throw back to when we actually had PITCHERS pitching MLB. He really only has to do two things:

1) Cut down on the 3-2 counts (a matter of leaving behind this insane notion that you get to 0-2 and then waste 3 pitches which infects almost the entire Sox pitching staff)

2) Leave fewer mistakes just hanging there right in the middle of the plate.

 

If he can do those two things at least regularly enough, he will go 6+ and maybe even a full 7.

 

Finally some additional durability might be attractive. But who is durable any longer pitching MLB....maybe 15 guys total both leagues.....tops?

[kenmeister]

I like BJ mainly because he is a throw back to when we actually had PITCHERS pitching MLB. He really only has to do two things:

1) Cut down on the 3-2 counts (a matter of leaving behind this insane notion that you get to 0-2 and then waste 3 pitches which infects almost the entire Sox pitching staff)

2) Leave fewer mistakes just hanging there right in the middle of the plate.

 

If he can do those two things at least regularly enough, he will go 6+ and maybe even a full 7.

 

Finally some additional durability might be attractive. But who is durable any longer pitching MLB....maybe 15 guys total both leagues.....tops?

 

Oh my g-d you are right the 0-2 to 3-2 drives me crazy.

[OH FOY]

Some good Brain Farts too by Brady if you follow the Pats.

Safety in SB

Pick 6 in SB

1 yard INT against KC last year, at the Goal Line.

Denver 99 yard INT for TD, by Champ Bailey, when the Pats were going in for deciding score.

Edited August 21, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Are you calling me and Slasher Dumb and Dumber???

 

My only question is, which one of us is Dumb, and which is Dumber?

[harmony]

Are you calling me and Slasher Dumb and Dumber???

 

My only question is, which one of us is Dumb, and which is Dumber?

You are held in the highest esteem.

[moonslav59]

Those numbers tell quite a story. .646 is actually impressive, and makes me want to give him a chance at 5-6 starts in a row where he stays in 6 innings come hell or high water (which admittedly you can only do once you've thrown in the towel) because he just needs to learn how to pitch the 2nd and 3rd times through the order.

 

I don't diagree, but if he ends up adding proof to the point that he sucks the second time through, he can still be very valuable as a 2-3 inning guy.

[Bellhorn04]

Some good Brain Farts too by Brady if you follow the Pats.

Safety in SB

Pick 6 in SB

1 yard INT against KC last year, at the Goal Line.

Denver 99 yard INT for TD, by Champ Bailey, when the Pats were going in for deciding score.

 

Yep, nobody's perfect.

[Maxbialystock]

Brady is clutch, no question.

 

Being clutch in baseball is a whole different thing. It's a completely different kind of game.

 

I'm inclined to agree baseball is different if only because the dynamics of hitting and pitching are so variable. However. Dave Roberts key theft of 2d base in the 2004 ALCS was definitely clutch because it was doable, essential, and not without risk. You could probably make a similar argument for Beni's game-ending grab in Houston last October.