Countdown to Playoffs - 2019 edition

[dgalehouse]

A lot of managers are giving these " rest days " to their players . Pretty sure it is on the " strong suggestion " from the analytics driven front offices . They probably have data that shows the boys perform better when they get more rest .

[dgalehouse]

Speaking of the analytics driven geeks ; maybe MLB should use them to put together a schedule that makes at least a little bit of sense . This year's schedule was crazy .

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of managers are giving these " rest days " to their players . Pretty sure it is on the " strong suggestion " from the analytics driven front offices . They probably have data that shows the boys perform better when they get more rest .

 

The 2017 Astros had a rest days policy - World Champs.

The 2018 Red Sox had a rest days policy - World Champs.

The 2019 Yankees have a rest days policy - best record in MLB.

 

But it's always good fun to yuk it up at modern managers and the spreadsheet geeks telling them what to do.

[jung]

A lot of managers are giving these " rest days " to their players . Pretty sure it is on the " strong suggestion " from the analytics driven front offices . They probably have data that shows the boys perform better when they get more rest .

 

I think the rest days are likely the one thing that is NOT coming from the spread sheet geeks. I do think the match up lineup changes are coming from the spread sheet geeks, but not the rest days that are pure rest days. The spread from one player to the next is just too great to be generated from spread sheets. Cora's eyes are telling him that a guy should get a day and Cora appears unwilling to fight that regardless of other inputs like "hey we really need to win this game". Its Cora's eyes in most cases or eventually the number of games between a break comes into play.

 

I think the match up lineup changes are almost all the spread sheet geeks. It looks like they have total control in Tampa for example and likely have a good deal of control up here as well.

 

All you need do to justify Cora's rest day regimen regardless of how frustrating it might be for fans is look at the injury record for everyday players on this team the last two years compared to what it is for other teams.

[Bellhorn04]

MLB scheduled more days off this year (actually started last year) than any year in a long time.

 

MLB.com

 

Under the collective bargaining agreement reached in December 2016, several changes were made to the scheduling pattern for the 2018 season. The overall length of the season was extended to 187 days with the addition of four off-days for all teams. All teams were scheduled to play on Opening Day, which for 2018 was March 29. Sunday Night Baseball will no longer be played on the final Sunday before the All-Star Game, in order to ease travel time for those who are participating in the Home Run Derby. A single, nationally televised night game will be played the following Thursday, with all other teams returning to play on Friday.

 

But in spite of the added rest days, the Red Sox played 34 games in 34 days from July 12 to August 14.

[jung]

But in spite of the added rest days, the Red Sox played 34 games in 34 days from July 12 to August 14.

 

And I wonder how much of that came out of HAVING TO SQUEEZE IN TWO GAMES END OF JUNE IN LONDON. More f***ing ridiculous Manfred nonsense, plus Henry trying to promote Fenway Group as both the Liverpool FC and Boston Red Sox owner.

[moonslav59]

But in spite of the added rest days, the Red Sox played 34 games in 34 days from July 12 to August 14.

 

I think a couple games were make-up rain days. We did have a day off but a doubleheader, too.

 

I'm not saying never rest these guys, but I remember the days when many stars played 161-162 games, unless they were hurt.

 

Playing 159-161 with the 4 added days off with the "modern schedule" should be plenty for most of the younger and stronger players.

 

If the analytics say otherwise, and that's why I differ to Cora, then I will readily admit I am wrong.

 

I'm just stating my opinion and not bashing Cora.

[Carpin]

I was doing some numbers, on what it will take for the Sox to take the last WC spot

 

Current Standings 8/19

Cleveland 125 74 51 0.592

Tampa 125 73 52 0.584

Oakland 124 71 53 0.573

Boston 126 67 59 0.532

 

If the top 3 keep the pace, this is what it will take for them to grab a WC spot

Cleveland 37 22 15 0.595 162 96 66 0.593

Tampa 37 22 15 0.595 162 95 67 0.586

Oakland 38 22 16 0.579 162 93 69 0.574

Boston 36 28 8 0.778 162 95 67 0.586

That means win a whooping 28 games

 

If the top 3 play at 0.500 the rest of the way, then

Cleveland 37 19 18 0.514 162 93 69 0.574

Tampa 37 19 18 0.514 162 92 70 0.568

Oakland 38 19 19 0.500 162 90 72 0.556

Boston 36 25 11 0.694 162 92 70 0.568

 

The goal is to reach 95 wins and hope the rest of the teams keep the pace, because if one of them performs better, everything becomes harder and expect them to play .500 is not realistic.

 

I still think Cleveland or Minn will grab the first WC spot, so the 2nd WC is the one that is still in the air.

[moonslav59]

I was doing some numbers, on what it will take for the Sox to take the last WC spot

 

Current Standings 8/19

Cleveland 125 74 51 0.592

Tampa 125 73 52 0.584

Oakland 124 71 53 0.573

Boston 126 67 59 0.532

 

If the top 3 keep the pace, this is what it will take for them to grab a WC spot

Cleveland 37 22 15 0.595 162 96 66 0.593

Tampa 37 22 15 0.595 162 95 67 0.586

Oakland 38 22 16 0.579 162 93 69 0.574

Boston 36 28 8 0.778 162 95 67 0.586

That means win a whooping 28 games

 

If the top 3 play at 0.500 the rest of the way, then

Cleveland 37 19 18 0.514 162 93 69 0.574

Tampa 37 19 18 0.514 162 92 70 0.568

Oakland 38 19 19 0.500 162 90 72 0.556

Boston 36 25 11 0.694 162 92 70 0.568

 

The goal is to reach 95 wins and hope the rest of the teams keep the pace, because if one of them performs better, everything becomes harder and expect them to play .500 is not realistic.

 

I still think Cleveland or Minn will grab the first WC spot, so the 2nd WC is the one that is still in the air.

 

I think 28-8 or even 24-12 is all but impossible.

 

Let's see what Travis, Chavis, Marco and some younger arms have to show for themselves.

 

I enjoy watching these guys play.

[dgalehouse]

We have here Otto Schmedlap with his seven year old son , Timmy , as they enter the gate at Fenway for Timmy's first Red Sox game . Timmy : " Dad , I'm so excited ". Otto: " I know son , it was worth the three hour drive . Why , I'll never forget my first game. " Timmy : " I know Dad . You told me about a thousand times. I can't wait to see Mookie . He's my favorite player . I love him ." Otto : " Guess what son ? I went on stub hub and got us box seats right on the right field line . You will see Mookie up close ." Timmy : " Wow. That is great . Thanks , Dad . This is the best day of my whole life ." A little later : Otto: " Sorry , Timmy . It looks like Mookie isn't playing. ". Timmy : " Is Mookie hurt ? " Otto : " No . He's okay . Not hurt or sick or anything." Timmy: " Then why isn't he playing ? " Otto : " I don't know son , maybe the manager wants to give him a rest ." Timmy : " A rest ? Why ? Maybe he will get in the game later , right Dad ? ". Otto : " I don't think so , son ." Timmy : ( Near tears ) " I hate that manager . I hate baseball . " Otto : " It's going to be okay Timmy . Let' s get a hot dog . Who knows ? Maybe you can get an autograph from Sam Travis ."

[moonslav59]

We have here Otto Schmedlap with his seven year old son , Timmy , as they enter the gate at Fenway for Timmy's first Red Sox game . Timmy : " Dad , I'm so excited ". Otto: " I know son , it was worth the three hour drive . Why , I'll never forget my first game. " Timmy : " I know Dad . You told me about a thousand times. I can't wait to see Mookie . He's my favorite player . I love him ." Otto : " Guess what son ? I went on stub hub and got us box seats right on the right field line . You will see Mookie up close ." Timmy : " Wow. That is great . Thanks , Dad . This is the best day of my whole life ." A little later : Otto: " Sorry , Timmy . It looks like Mookie isn't playing. ". Timmy : " Is Mookie hurt ? " Otto : " No . He's okay . Not hurt or sick or anything." Timmy: " Then why isn't he playing ? " Otto : " I don't know son , maybe the manager wants to give him a rest ." Timmy : " A rest ? Why ? Maybe he will get in the game later , right Dad ? ". Otto : " I don't think so , son ." Timmy : ( Near tears ) " I hate that manager . I hate baseball . " Otto : " It's going to be okay Timmy . Let' s get a hot dog . Who knows ? Maybe you can get an autograph from Sam Travis ."

 

"Hey, Timmy, How about that kid Marco Hernandez?"

 

"Look at that kid D Hernandez! He's only 15 years older than you, son! Isn't he amazing?

 

"The sausages are better than the hot dogs, son. Let's splurge, so Henry can buy better players!"

[Carpin]

I think 28-8 or even 24-12 is all but impossible.

 

Let's see what Travis, Chavis, Marco and some younger arms have to show for themselves.

 

I enjoy watching these guys play.

 

I agree with you, the worst thing that can happen for the Sox is to go in a winning streak and fall short of the WC spot, the result will be the same and you will fall some spots in the draft, what the Sox need is to think in the farm and rebuild the depth as soon as possible.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a couple games were make-up rain days. We did have a day off but a doubleheader, too.

 

I'm not saying never rest these guys, but I remember the days when many stars played 161-162 games, unless they were hurt.

 

 

It doesn't mean it was a good thing.

 

I remember 1978 and how the team fell apart down the stretch. Some of that might have been attributable to lack of rest.

[cp176]

I agree with you, the worst thing that can happen for the Sox is to go in a winning streak and fall short of the WC spot, the result will be the same and you will fall some spots in the draft, what the Sox need is to think in the farm and rebuild the depth as soon as possible.

 

The worst thing that could happen to any major league franchise is to start losing their fan base. Yarding out younger players just because you want to see what they can do, goes against any realistic principle that coaches and players who have been successful have ever abided by. if they are good enough as in proven themselves at the lower levels they'll likely get their chance someday. if they are not better than those ahead of them, putting them out there out of curiosity i don't think would go over very well. Might be tolerable I guess for losing small market teams i guess.

[Bellhorn04]

We have here Otto Schmedlap with his seven year old son , Timmy , as they enter the gate at Fenway for Timmy's first Red Sox game . Timmy : " Dad , I'm so excited ". Otto: " I know son , it was worth the three hour drive . Why , I'll never forget my first game. " Timmy : " I know Dad . You told me about a thousand times. I can't wait to see Mookie . He's my favorite player . I love him ." Otto : " Guess what son ? I went on stub hub and got us box seats right on the right field line . You will see Mookie up close ." Timmy : " Wow. That is great . Thanks , Dad . This is the best day of my whole life ." A little later : Otto: " Sorry , Timmy . It looks like Mookie isn't playing. ". Timmy : " Is Mookie hurt ? " Otto : " No . He's okay . Not hurt or sick or anything." Timmy: " Then why isn't he playing ? " Otto : " I don't know son , maybe the manager wants to give him a rest ." Timmy : " A rest ? Why ? Maybe he will get in the game later , right Dad ? ". Otto : " I don't think so , son ." Timmy : ( Near tears ) " I hate that manager . I hate baseball . " Otto : " It's going to be okay Timmy . Let' s get a hot dog . Who knows ? Maybe you can get an autograph from Sam Travis ."

 

1 whole game Mookie hasn't appeared in this year. Timmy's just an unlucky little prick, I guess.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with you, the worst thing that can happen for the Sox is to go in a winning streak and fall short of the WC spot, the result will be the same and you will fall some spots in the draft, what the Sox need is to think in the farm and rebuild the depth as soon as possible.

 

To me this is just wrong.

 

It's mini-tanking is what it is.

[S5Dewey]

To me this is just wrong.

 

It's mini-tanking is what it is.

 

Yes. TANKING is exactly the word I was looking for.

 

Unfortunately Tanking is one of the long term strategies toward making a team successful for short periods of time in the future. Tanking seems to be despicable when other teams do it but some folks think it's OK for the Sox to do it.

[notin]

A lot of managers are giving these " rest days " to their players . Pretty sure it is on the " strong suggestion " from the analytics driven front offices . They probably have data that shows the boys perform better when they get more rest .

 

Yes the idea of resting players is brand new. Remember back when every player played 162 games? That’s why it was no big deal when Cal Ripken broke that streak. Heck, it almost got ignored by the media...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes the idea of resting players is brand new. Remember back when every player played 162 games? That’s why it was no big deal when Cal Ripken broke that streak. Heck, it almost got ignored by the media...

 

Good point LOL

[Slasher9]

Never.

Give.

Up.

Ever.

that's what Timmy needs to be taught by his father.

in 2 years he can come back to Fenway when [fill in the blank team that gives Mookie $330MM+] comes to town for a road series....

guaranteed he will play all 3 games.

[Bellhorn04]

Timmy sounds like a little whiner.

[oldtimer]

Never.

Give.

Up.

Ever.

that's what Timmy needs to be taught by his father.

in 2 years he can come back to Fenway when [fill in the blank team that gives Mookie $330MM+] comes to town for a road series....

guaranteed he will play all 3 games.

 

We are sending Mr. TBD up against the Phillies Nola tomorrow. Asking a lot to score enough to be competitive tomorrow. That is just our predicament due to starters hurt or not performing.

[notin]

Timmy sounds like a little whiner.

 

That’s why his dad abandoned him in the RF seats that day...

[notin]

The 2017 Astros had a rest days policy - World Champs.

The 2018 Red Sox had a rest days policy - World Champs.

The 2019 Yankees have a rest days policy - best record in MLB.

 

But it's always good fun to yuk it up at modern managers and the spreadsheet geeks telling them what to do.

 

denny blames everything he doesn’t like about baseball on modern-day analytics and stat room geeks, even changes that have been around for over 120 years...

[moonslav59]

It doesn't mean it was a good thing.

 

I remember 1978 and how the team fell apart down the stretch. Some of that might have been attributable to lack of rest.

 

No. It sucked.

 

My point was that the schedule now has 4 more days off than it did for years and years, so basically, you can count those as "days off." In a sense, everyone starts with 158 games (although they still may play 162.)

 

Then, they are given 3-5 scheduled days off for "rest". That's like a player from 2-50 years ago getting 7-9 days off per season above the normal days off.

 

I think it's too much. I've already said this is a minor issue with me, and I've already written more than I should have on something rather trivial. Besides, I think we won almost every game Cora sat an important player.

 

[moonslav59]

Timmy sounds like a little whiner.

 

He's going to get fat eating all those hot dogs, but fat shaming is so anti-PC these days.

[Bellhorn04]

No. It sucked.

 

My point was that the schedule now has 4 more days off than it did for years and years, so basically, you can count those as "days off." In a sense, everyone starts with 158 games (although they still may play 162.)

 

Then, they are given 3-5 scheduled days off for "rest". That's like a player from 2-50 years ago getting 7-9 days off per season above the normal days off.

 

I think it's too much. I've already said this is a minor issue with me, and I've already written more than I should have on something rather trivial. Besides, I think we won almost every game Cora sat an important player.

 

 

I don't mean to be picking on you about the rest days thing. I'm just trying to make some general points about it. It might be a trivial thing to you, but there are others who make a big deal out of it.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm in favor of rest days because frankly I think it is impossible to stay on your game playing on average 6 games per week for 26 straight weeks and including huge amounts of tedium during each game while the batter adjusts his gloves, checks his helmet, checks his bat, digs in at the plate, --and the pitcher wanders around the mound, shakes his head at a sign from the catcher, variously short time outs, etc.

 

When they replay an entire game without all that stuff, but still include every pitch, every hit, every play, it takes less than 20 minutes to show a 3 1/2 hour game. And yet during that more than 3 hours when literally nothing is happening, each player on the defense especially has to stay focused and alert to game situations, situational trends for each batter, etc.

 

Also, almost every team has 13 position players, which basically means 4 subs. If the 9 best all play 162 games, what at the subs for, especially in the AL where you don't have to pinch-hit for the pitcher?

 

Since this is the countdown to the playoffs thread, a thought on that. I'm with Kimmi and the other cock-eyed optimists who are still rooting for the Sox to get into the playoffs--even though I fully recognize how sensible moonslav and others' pessimism is. I mean, it's just this simple: the rotation stinks because it stunk all year long. Not every game, of course, but way too often.

 

Nevertheless, the Sox have just won 5 straight games even though three of the starters starters were ineligible for a win because they didn't pitch 5 innings or just stunk up the game or both.

[Key2Delock]

The Red Sox are chasing Tampa Bay and Oakland for the second wild spot. They're currently six-and-a-half games back of Tampa Bay and five games back of Oakland. Even if the Red Sox somehow manage to catch those teams between now and the end of August, based on the teams' respective schedules, finishing ahead of either of those teams will be a substantial challenge.

 

In September, Oakland has five games scheduled against teams that currently have winning records. Tampa Bay has nine, including four against the Red Sox. The Red Sox have 16 games scheduled against teams that currently have winning records, including the four against Tampa Bay, and those 16 games will be played during the first 20 games of the month.

[moonslav59]

I don't mean to be picking on you about the rest days thing. I'm just trying to make some general points about it. It might be a trivial thing to you, but there are others who make a big deal out of it.

 

Yes, and they use it to add to the "WTF" Cora bashing.

 

To me, I'm just talking about maybe 1-2 games for 2-3 players. It's not a biggie for me.

 

I also have admitted I do not know everything Cora knows, and maybe if I had all the data and input he has, I might be arguing for more rest.