Baseball's 3,000-strikeout fraternity is probably smaller than you think

[BillyWilliams]

This exclusive club could get new member soon

 

By Matt Kelly MLB.com

Feb. 6th, 2019

 

Baseball is about to see a player enter one of its most exclusive clubs, and it could happen within the first month of the season.

 

Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has had an eventful offseason, signing a one-year deal in November and announcing that 2019 will be his final season, and then undergoing an angioplasty in December. However, he's on track to report to Spring Training next week. If he climbs the hill in April, he'll be just 14 punchouts away from joining the game's 3,000-strikeout club -- and that's a bigger deal than you might think. Sabathia would become just the 17th pitcher to reach 3,000 strikeouts, joining this list (date of 3,000th strikeout in parentheses):

 

Walter Johnson (July 22, 1923)

Bob Gibson (July 17, 1974)

Gaylord Perry (Oct. 1, 1978)

Nolan Ryan (July 4, 1980)

Tom Seaver (April 18, 1981)

Steve Carlton (April 29, 1981)

Fergie Jenkins (May 25, 1982)

Don Sutton (June 24, 1983)

Phil Niekro (July 4, 1984)

Bert Blyleven (Aug. 1, 1986)

Roger Clemens (July 5, 1998)

Randy Johnson (Sept. 10, 2000)

Greg Maddux (July 26, 2005)

Curt Schilling (Aug. 30, 2006)

Pedro Martinez (Sept. 3, 2007)

John Smoltz (April 22, 2008)

 

Three thousand strikeouts is a mark that requires excellence and longevity, which means there's a good number of legendary aces (e.g. Tom Glavine, Don Drysdale, Sandy Koufax, Robin Roberts, Dwight Gooden, Jim Palmer, etc.) who aren't listed above. In fact, the 3,000-K fraternity is markedly smaller than baseball's other marquee clubs; 39 position players have stolen 500 bases, 32 have knocked 3,000 hits, 27 have clubbed 500 home runs and 24 pitchers have won 300 games.

 

So while Sabathia might not end up as the most famous or celebrated pitcher of his generation, it's still worth acknowledging the Hall of Fame credentials he's compiling -- beginning, perhaps, with that strikeout total. Here's a little more context for just how hard it is for a pitcher to cross that 3,000-K threshold:

 

• Walter Johnson was the first to notch 3,000 strikeouts when he punched out fellow pitcher Stan Coveleski on July 22, 1923. Baseball then had to wait nearly 51 years to the day until the next pitcher, Gibson, reached the mark on July 17, 1974. In comparison, only 11 years passed until Jimmie Foxx joined Babe Ruth as the second member of the 500-homer club in 1940. It took 17 years for Honus Wagner to join Cap Anson in the 3,000-hit club, and just two years for Tim Keefe to join Pud Galvin as the second 300-win pitcher.

 

• Sabathia would be the first pitcher since Smoltz in 2008 to cross 3,000 strikeouts, and that 11-year gap would be the third-longest in the club's history behind Johnson to Gibson, and the 12 years between Blyleven (1986) and Clemens (1998).

 

The 300-win club had one gap of nearly 13 years between Ryan (1990) and Clemens (2003), but has not seen another void of at least 10 years since the 20-year span from Lefty Grove in 1941 to Warren Spahn in '61. Meanwhile, the 500-homer club's longest wait between members over the last half century was the nine-year wait from Mike Schmidt (1987) to Eddie Murray (1996). The longest gap between 3,000-hit members in that span was seven years between Rod Carew (1985) and Robin Yount (1992).

 

• More pitchers have twirled a perfect game (23) in modern history than compiled 3,000 strikeouts. Nearly as many pitchers (12) have recorded an immaculate inning over the past two seasons alone.

 

• There were 31 other pitchers who debuted alongside Sabathia in 2001, compiled at least 1,000 strikeouts and have since retired or not signed with a team for 2019. Among that group, John Lackey came the closest to Sabathia in that span, finishing with 2,294 K's.

 

• While it's true that Sabathia is currently pitching in a strikeout-rich era, he didn't necessarily start in one. The Major League strikeout rate was 17.3 percent in the year that Sabathia debuted, and it would not eclipse that level until 2008, when strikeout rates begin rising every season until the most recent record of 22.3 percent last year. Sabathia's current career strikeout rate of 20.6 percent would trail six other 3,000-K members (Randy Johnson, Martinez, Ryan, Schilling, Clemens and Smoltz) who debuted before him.

 

• Justin Verlander (2,706 strikeouts) figures to be next in line after Sabathia, and there's an outside chance he also reaches the milestone this year if he improves just slightly on his career-high 290-K total from 2018. As Bartolo Colon (2,535) and Felix Hernandez (2,467) wind down their careers, Max Scherzer (2,449) seems like the next logical candidate. Scherzer could get there as soon as 2020 if he maintains his average strikeout rate (33.4 percent) and batters faced totals (849) from the least three seasons.

 

But there could be another long wait after Mad Max. Zack Greinke (2,435) and Cole Hamels (2,415) are both entering their age-35 seasons, and while Clayton Kershaw (2,275) will turn just 31 in March, he just posted his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie campaign. The next closest pitcher to 3,000 who's currently 30 or younger is Chris Sale, who's sitting on 1,789 punchouts. That leaves Sale 1,211 more strikeouts to go, and 54 pitchers in modern history have racked up that many after their age-29 seasons. Only 10 of those pitchers, however, compiled those 1,211 strikeouts by the end of their age-35 seasons -- and the last pitcher to do so before Verlander last year was Schilling in 2002.

 

• The biggest hurdle for aspiring 3,000-K pitchers used to be that hitters simply didn't strike out all that often. Now, it's a question of workload.

 

Only 13 pitchers reached 200 innings in 2018, a record low point for any non-strike season since 1900. Meanwhile, the members of the 3,000-K club combined for 234 200-inning seasons, for an average of roughly 15 such campaigns per pitcher. In fact, the club contains 11 of the top 21 pitchers in history for most 200-inning seasons compiled, topping out with the all-time leader Sutton at 20.

 

Sabathia, conversely, has recorded three 200-inning seasons in his career, which would be the lowest total of any club member. He and Verlander represent the merge point between old- and new-school approaches to strikeout stockpiling, but the road to 3,000 continues to be one of the toughest milestone journeys in the sport.

 

3000 strikeouts is one of MLBs rarest feats

WWW.MLB.COM

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The 3,000-strikeout club, one of baseball's most exclusive, has a new member, and it's Max Scherzer. Scherzer became just the 19th pitcher to reach the 3,000-K mark, adding to this list (date of 3,000th strikeout in parentheses): Walter Johnson (July 22, 1923) Bob Gibson (July 17, 1974) Gaylord Perry (Oct.

[Bellhorn04]

Which makes Ryan's 5,714 K's even more incredible. He almost did 3,000 twice!

[BillyWilliams]

Which makes Ryan's 5,714 K's even more incredible. He almost did 3,000 twice!

 

Yes, pretty amazing.

 

I never really thought about how small the 3000 K Club was until I read this article.

[bkzwhitestrican]

200 strikeout seasons could become a rarity soon as well. If the MLB approves a 26 man roster I'd imagine a lot of teams will eventually switch to 6 man rotation, thus fewer starts/innings/strikeouts for pitchers.

[notin]

Which makes Ryan's 5,714 K's even more incredible. He almost did 3,000 twice!

 

There was a brief time when Ryan and Steve Carlton kept leap-frogging each other for the All Time strikeout lead. Each would hold the lead until the other’s next start. Until Ryan pulled away.

 

Also Bert Blyleven is like fifth all time with 3,715 strikeouts, I believe. How did it take so long to get him into Cooperstown?

[dgalehouse]

Ryan was probably the most dominant pitcher of all time. Not necessarily the best , but the most dominant . His strikeout , no hitters , one hitters and two hitters totals are phenomenal.

[moonslav59]

Ryan was probably the most dominant pitcher of all time. Not necessarily the best , but the most dominant . His strikeout , no hitters , one hitters and two hitters totals are phenomenal.

 

Who leads the majors in most BBs alltime?

 

2,795 Ryan

1,833 Carlton

 

He's close to a thousand more than the next guy.

 

Yes, he could be extremely dominant, at times, but he could also be a bit wild.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Who leads the majors in most BBs alltime?

 

2,795 Ryan

1,833 Carlton

 

He's close to a thousand more than the next guy.

 

Yes, he could be extremely dominant, at times, but he could also be a bit wild.

 

 

Slash & OPSa:

 

204/307/298 = 606

 

He did give up a lot of walks, but he made up for it by giving up so little good contact.

[BillyWilliams]

Who leads the majors in most BBs alltime?

 

2,795 Ryan

1,833 Carlton

 

He's close to a thousand more than the next guy.

 

Yes, he could be extremely dominant, at times, but he could also be a bit wild.

 

 

They had an identical career WHIP 1.247

[moonslav59]

Slash & OPSa:

 

204/307/298 = 606

 

He did give up a lot of walks, but he made up for it by giving up so little good contact.

 

Very true, but to me a 1.247 WHIP is not dominating. That takes away some from the other massive numbers of dominance with the Ks and no hitters.

[Bellhorn04]

Very true, but to me a 1.247 WHIP is not dominating. That takes away some from the other massive numbers of dominance with the Ks and no hitters.

 

WHIP doesn't really do justice to his tiny SLGa though.

[dgalehouse]

Who leads the majors in most BBs alltime?

 

2,795 Ryan

1,833 Carlton

 

He's close to a thousand more than the next guy.

 

Yes, he could be extremely dominant, at times, but he could also be a bit wild.

 

That's why I said " not necessarily the best ." The most dominant.

[dgalehouse]

As I argued before , WHIP only matters when the base runners score . Sometimes the only hope batters had against Ryan was looking for a walk , like an intimidated little leaguer .

[moonslav59]

Best WHIP in the modern era:

 

1.00 Mo Rivera

1.00 Kershaw

1.03 C Sale

1.05 Pedro

 

H/9

6.6 Ryan

6.7 Kershaw

6.8 Koufax

6.9 SFernandez

 

12. Pedro 7.1

17. C Sale 7.2

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

As I argued before , WHIP only matters when the base runners score . Sometimes the only hope batters had against Ryan was looking for a walk , like an intimidated little leaguer .

 

I get your point, and I don't really agree, but anyways, if you only go by how many runs score, then the ERA or ERA- leader should be the most dominant, right?

 

2.39 Kershaw

 

3.19 Ryan

 

Some of his 4.7 BB per 9 innings must have scored.

[notin]

Very true, but to me a 1.247 WHIP is not dominating. That takes away some from the other massive numbers of dominance with the Ks and no hitters.

 

Let's not get into using no-hitters as a measure of greatness. Hideo Nomo had two. Pedro, Clemens and Maddux combined for 0.

 

And any argument about a dominating pitcher is incomplete if Pedro never gets mentioned...

[notin]

I get your point, and I don't really agree, but anyways, if you only go by how many runs score, then the ERA or ERA- leader should be the most dominant, right?

 

2.39 Kershaw

 

3.19 Ryan

 

Some of his 4.7 BB per 9 innings must have scored.

 

If career ERA is all that matters, Ryan was 248th all time. It's too easy to name pitchers who did better that no one considers an all time great...

[dgalehouse]

Let's not get into using no-hitters as a measure of greatness. Hideo Nomo had two. Pedro, Clemens and Maddux combined for 0.

 

And any argument about a dominating pitcher is incomplete if Pedro never gets mentioned...[/quote

Well , you have to admit that 5714 K's , 7 no hitters , 12 one hitters and 18 two hitters is pretty good . Might even call it dominant .

[notin]

Let's not get into using no-hitters as a measure of greatness. Hideo Nomo had two. Pedro, Clemens and Maddux combined for 0.

 

And any argument about a dominating pitcher is incomplete if Pedro never gets mentioned...[/quote

Well , you have to admit that 5714 K's , 7 no hitters , 12 one hitters and 18 two hitters is pretty good . Might even call it dominant .

 

Think Feller equals him if he doesn't take time off for military service?

[dgalehouse]

 

Think Feller equals him if he doesn't take time off for military service?

 

Feller was one of the greats . You could certainly make the case that he was better than Ryan . However , I don't think he matches Ryan in no hitters and strikeouts , even without the military service . Ryan's longevity was amazing . 27 years and still effective almost to the end .