What would a Betts extension be?

[Bellhorn04]

But whether or not they are justified by the long term payroll increase and corresponding worse years is another analysis.

 

So can we expect a full report by, say, 2pm-ish?

 

Let me answer it this way: I think John Henry knows what he's doing. If he thinks it's OK to invest XXX dollars in payroll in 2019 or any particular year, I think he's probably right and that he's basing it on fairly sound baseball and business reasons.

[cp176]

Also - and more important- who gives a f*** what some fans think? I know some people believe otherwise, but Dombrowski doesn’t check out message boards for ideas on how to run a team. If the Sox aren’t spending, that ests solely with him or his boss.

 

Fans have all kinds of ideas on how to run a team. Some a right, some are wrong. All are irrelevant.

 

Also, let’s face it. We’re also probably also all wrong...

 

this makes me chuckle - correct too. If DD read and actually bought into much of the stuff posted here, he would quit.

[notin]

Let me answer it this way: I think John Henry knows what he's doing. If he thinks it's OK to invest XXX dollars in payroll in 2019 or any particular year, I think he's probably right and that he's basing it on fairly sound baseball and business reasons.

 

 

I dunno. I heard he made his billions on scratch cards...

[S5Dewey]

Let me answer it this way: I think John Henry knows what he's doing. If he thinks it's OK to invest XXX dollars in payroll in 2019 or any particular year, I think he's probably right and that he's basing it on fairly sound baseball and business reasons.

 

JH has access to things we don't have. Fairly important things, like the balance sheet. I'm fairly certain that he has a bevy of bean counters who can project the anticipated profit (or loss) of the Boston Red Sox based on whether then go into the playoffs and how deeply they go. I believe they can also do the same thing based on how much the RS pay in salaries and who they pay it to. The rest of us are just talking through our hats when we talk about how much he can "afford".

 

I've mentioned it before but sometimes I'm awestruck by things that point out how much money there is floating around out there in Major League baseball and it's not unreasonable to think that one of the most successful franchises has a lot of it. That doesn't mean that he has to spend it, or even if he will spend it, but it's there.

[jacksonianmarch]

The fact remains that Cafardo was pitching a deal Betts "couldn't refuse". My point is that Betts is already expensive. He's made $10.5 mil in 2018. He is likely to see an $18 mil outlay in 2019. Even if he falls down a well or goes on a Ricky Williams ganja run in 2020, he will have earned $28 mil. It isn't like he's waiting for his pay day. Assuming all star level play in 2019, his 2020 will likely be in the $25 mil range. So, while he is controlled for 2 more years, you arent talking about cheap coverage. The kid is gonna be paid. Betts has also made it fairly obvious that he wants to hit the market, a la Xander. So you need to make an offer to Betts that takes into account 19 and 20 then offer what the going rate would be for a generational talent who hits FA at 28 yrs old. The going rate is going to be set by Harper and Machado. I am thinking Henry pays Betts what he would make in arbitration for 2019 and 2020 while adding a contract to Betts akin to what Harper gets. Also, by doing that now, the sox don't have to worry about the typical inflation that would go on two years from now when $35 mil might end up being $39 mil

[Kimmi]

I don't think a GM of a big market team like Epstein, Cashman or DD would call it dumb. I think they would call it a necessary evil that has to be used judiciously, but that you will get burned on sometimes regardless. If I'm not mistaken Theo Epstein actually said something pretty close to that when he was here. And he's obviously decided to keep utilizing it for the Cubs.

 

The key words are bolded above.

 

The premise of Theo's above statement was having a strong farm system and several cost controlled players filling key roles.

[Kimmi]

The fact remains that Cafardo was pitching a deal Betts "couldn't refuse". My point is that Betts is already expensive. He's made $10.5 mil in 2018. He is likely to see an $18 mil outlay in 2019. Even if he falls down a well or goes on a Ricky Williams ganja run in 2020, he will have earned $28 mil. It isn't like he's waiting for his pay day. Assuming all star level play in 2019, his 2020 will likely be in the $25 mil range. So, while he is controlled for 2 more years, you arent talking about cheap coverage. The kid is gonna be paid. Betts has also made it fairly obvious that he wants to hit the market, a la Xander. So you need to make an offer to Betts that takes into account 19 and 20 then offer what the going rate would be for a generational talent who hits FA at 28 yrs old. The going rate is going to be set by Harper and Machado. I am thinking Henry pays Betts what he would make in arbitration for 2019 and 2020 while adding a contract to Betts akin to what Harper gets. Also, by doing that now, the sox don't have to worry about the typical inflation that would go on two years from now when $35 mil might end up being $39 mil

 

No matter how you slice this up, the Red Sox are taking all of the risk with this deal, while really getting no benefit from having bought out 2 arb years.

 

Mookie just had what could very well be a career year. What if Mookie is 'only' a 6 WAR player the next 2 years?

[moonslav59]

No matter how you slice this up, the Red Sox are taking all of the risk with this deal, while really getting no benefit from having bought out 2 arb years.

 

Mookie just had what could very well be a career year. What if Mookie is 'only' a 6 WAR player the next 2 years?

 

What if he's a 12 WAR?

 

What if he goes...

 

11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2 over the 12 years?

 

That's 72 in 12 years (avg 6 WAR)

 

[Northern Star]

What if he's a 12 WAR?

 

What if he goes...

 

11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2 over the 12 years?

 

That's 72 in 12 years (avg 6 WAR)

 

 

That's just it, though. What if? Teams are always handing out huge amounts of guaranteed money on what ifs. It's a racket.

[moonslav59]

That's just it, though. What if? Teams are always handing out huge amounts of guaranteed money on what ifs. It's a racket.

 

I get it, but people are looking at all the failed 8+ year deals and assuming Mookie's will, too.

 

Yes, it can. It's a huge risk. One thing to notice is that many of the failed 8+ year deals went to ages 39-42. A 12 year deal right now would go to age 37.

 

I realize $35M a year can be spent differently, and the risk reward being put on just one guy is scary, but to me, Betts is the best Sox player I've ever seen. (Pedro is close.)

[Bellhorn04]

That's just it, though. What if? Teams are always handing out huge amounts of guaranteed money on what ifs. It's a racket.

 

Of course it is.

 

But if you're not willing to give out any risky contracts, your team is probably going to suck.

 

And the teams are still making piles of money in spite of the bad contracts, so no one should feel sorry for them.

[moonslav59]

Of course it is.

 

But if you're not willing to give out any risky contracts, your team is probably going to suck.

 

And the teams are still making piles of money in spite of the bad contracts, so no one should feel sorry for them.

 

Well put.

[Larry Cook]

I am guessing we could sign two really good pitchers for what you guys are talking about signing Mookie for!!!!!

[moonslav59]

I am guessing we could sign two really good pitchers for what you guys are talking about signing Mookie for!!!!!

 

Or, we could sign Mookie for what we paid Pablo & HRam per year.

 

BTW, for those who think you can't field a team while paying someone $35M, we paid Pable & HRam over $40M this year.

[Larry Cook]

Or, we could sign Mookie for what we paid Pablo & HRam per year.

 

BTW, for those who think you can't field a team while paying someone $35M, we paid Pable & HRam over $40M this year.

 

Our m.o. is clearly to pay huge dollars for starting pitching since we can not develop any ourselves and rely on homegrown hitters for the most part.

[Kimmi]

What if he's a 12 WAR?

 

What if he goes...

 

11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2 over the 12 years?

 

That's 72 in 12 years (avg 6 WAR)

 

 

I don't think it makes a difference in terms of having to sign him now. The Sox are still not getting any benefit from all of the risk they are taking.

 

Not that I would do this deal either, but if Mookie is expected to make $35 mil AAV as a free agent, then the contract offer now should be in the neighborhood of $30 mil. Mookie leaves a little money on the table for his free agent years, but he gets more money for his remaining arb years, not to mention the long term security. And the Sox get a bit of a discount for taking on the risk.

 

If the Sox are going to pay him market value anyway, then just wait until he hits free agency to offer a contract. See how things play out over the next two years.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think it makes a difference in terms of having to sign him now. The Sox are still not getting any benefit from all of the risk they are taking.

 

Not that I would do this deal either, but if Mookie is expected to make $35 mil AAV as a free agent, then the contract offer now should be in the neighborhood of $30 mil. Mookie leaves a little money on the table for his free agent years, but he gets more money for his remaining arb years, not to mention the long term security. And the Sox get a bit of a discount for taking on the risk.

 

If the Sox are going to pay him market value anyway, then just wait until he hits free agency to offer a contract. See how things play out over the next two years.

 

Agreed. If the Sox are going to give him an extension and the added security, they need to get something in return.

[moonslav59]

I don't think it makes a difference in terms of having to sign him now. The Sox are still not getting any benefit from all of the risk they are taking.

 

Not that I would do this deal either, but if Mookie is expected to make $35 mil AAV as a free agent, then the contract offer now should be in the neighborhood of $30 mil. Mookie leaves a little money on the table for his free agent years, but he gets more money for his remaining arb years, not to mention the long term security. And the Sox get a bit of a discount for taking on the risk.

 

If the Sox are going to pay him market value anyway, then just wait until he hits free agency to offer a contract. See how things play out over the next two years.

 

I'd say about $31-32M x 12, including the buy out years.

 

Betts is likely to make $45M in his last 2 arb years. That's $25M less than $35M a year, so if you take that off the next 10 years, it's $2.5M from $35M or $32.5M x 12.

 

I'd think offering him $31M x 12 might do it. He gets more security and we save $23 over 12 years.

 

$45M (arbs)+ $350M($35M x 10)= $395M over 12 years

 

$31M x 12 years= $372M

 

Or, offer him $31.5M x 12= $378M - a savings of $17M.

 

$32M x 12= $384M - a $11M savings.

 

Give him an opt out after 6 years.

[Northern Star]

I'd say about $31-32M x 12, including the buy out years.

 

Betts is likely to make $45M in his last 2 arb years. That's $25M less than $35M a year, so if you take that off the next 10 years, it's $2.5M from $35M or $32.5M x 12.

 

I'd think offering him $31M x 12 might do it. He gets more security and we save $23 over 12 years.

 

$45M (arbs)+ $350M($35M x 10)= $395M over 12 years

 

$31M x 12 years= $372M

 

Or, offer him $31.5M x 12= $378M - a savings of $17M.

 

$32M x 12= $384M - a $11M savings.

 

Give him an opt out after 6 years.

 

Remind me why we're giving him a 12 year deal here? He's not a FA yet so can't shop around for more years elsewhere. That's still an unacceptable level of risk for the team, and sabotages the key to give him less money than he'd make in the first FA years.

 

Why a opt out after 6 years? No player would take that. He'd be 32 and on the cusp of declining. He'd want an opt out sooner in case he's still performing at a high level and wants to try for more money, but hard to believe he'd get better than 12 x $31.

[moonslav59]

Remind me why we're giving him a 12 year deal here? He's not a FA yet so can't shop around for more years elsewhere. That's still an unacceptable level of risk for the team, and sabotages the key to give him less money than he'd make in the first FA years.

 

Why a opt out after 6 years? No player would take that. He'd be 32 and on the cusp of declining. He'd want an opt out sooner in case he's still performing at a high level and wants to try for more money, but hard to believe he'd get better than 12 x $31.

 

Because he's the best player we've ever had in my lifetime.

 

The opt out after 6 is better than no opt out for Betts. Plus, he gets more money in the first 6 years, especially his arb years, so if he invests it well, he can make much more money than just the salary.

 

What we gain:

 

We have the best player in Red Sox history (since Teddy) for 12 more years.

 

We front load his money, so if he opts out, he might make more at age 32 and we don't have to worry about his post prime decline.

 

Front loading also makes it easier to trade him late in his career.[

 

Our Luxury tax hit is just $31M for the last 10 years, not $35M.

 

We make a ton of money off the marketing value Mookie brings to us.

 

I'm sure there are more pluses I've not listed.

[Kimmi]

Agreed. If the Sox are going to give him an extension and the added security, they need to get something in return.

 

Oh yay. We finally agree on something. I was starting to get worried.

[Kimmi]

I'd say about $31-32M x 12, including the buy out years.

 

Betts is likely to make $45M in his last 2 arb years. That's $25M less than $35M a year, so if you take that off the next 10 years, it's $2.5M from $35M or $32.5M x 12.

 

I'd think offering him $31M x 12 might do it. He gets more security and we save $23 over 12 years.

 

$45M (arbs)+ $350M($35M x 10)= $395M over 12 years

 

$31M x 12 years= $372M

 

Or, offer him $31.5M x 12= $378M - a savings of $17M.

 

$32M x 12= $384M - a $11M savings.

 

Give him an opt out after 6 years.

 

Again, not that I would do that deal, but it at least makes a little more sense from the Red Sox side of things. They have to get some kind of a discount if they're willing to buy out 2 arb years plus go that long term.

 

I can't wait to see what Machado and Harper get.

[Kimmi]

Remind me why we're giving him a 12 year deal here? He's not a FA yet so can't shop around for more years elsewhere. That's still an unacceptable level of risk for the team, and sabotages the key to give him less money than he'd make in the first FA years.

 

Why a opt out after 6 years? No player would take that. He'd be 32 and on the cusp of declining. He'd want an opt out sooner in case he's still performing at a high level and wants to try for more money, but hard to believe he'd get better than 12 x $31.

 

I am with you on this NS.

[Northern Star]

 

We have the best player in Red Sox history (since Teddy) for 12 more years.

 

We front load his money, so if he opts out, he might make more at age 32 and we don't have to worry about his post prime decline.

 

Front loading also makes it easier to trade him late in his career.

 

 

Am I the only one seeing the inconsistency here? And best player for the franchise since Williams after only 4 full seasons?

[Bellhorn04]

Am I the only one seeing the inconsistency here? And best player for the franchise since Williams after only 4 full seasons?

 

It might be a tiny bit early to pronounce him that, but I fully understand it. At the age of 26, in just over 4 seasons, he's posted a total of 30 or 35 WAR depending on the system. And he's done it by having a complete game. Plus a great attitude and all that stuff. He really is a franchise player that needs to be retained.

Edited January 2, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

It might be a tiny bit early to pronounce him that, but I fully understand it. At the age of 26, in just over 4 seasons, he's posted a total of 30 or 35 WAR depending on the system. And he's done it by having a complete game. Plus a great attitude and all that stuff. He really is a franchise player that needs to be retained.

 

 

Betts absolutely needs to be retained. I agree it’s a bit early to say even best since Williams. I hear that Yastrzemski fellow was quite good.

 

But Betts is a stud and has the misfortune to be playing at the same time as Mike Trout...

[Northern Star]

I agree that Betts has been a great player, but my spidey sense is tingling due to the relatively small sample size. My preference is let him do it again for another two years, make a 8 year deal if it makes sense, if not, trade as a rental and goodbye.

 

Maybe I just don't get attached to players as much as some of you.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that Betts has been a great player, but my spidey sense is tingling due to the relatively small sample size. My preference is let him do it again for another two years, make a 8 year deal if it makes sense, if not, trade as a rental and goodbye.

 

Maybe I just don't get attached to players as much as some of you.

 

I do get attached to some players, I will admit that. I will even admit that I hate the thought of star players going to other teams and putting up great numbers for them and winning titles and so on.

[moonslav59]

As you all know, I'm a huge JBJ fan, but I'd rather keep Betts than JBJ & Bogey combined.

[dgalehouse]

Human nature being what it is , it is easy to have our favorites and get attached to some of them . Being totally objective is often hard to do . But a G.M. really has to strive for total objectivity. Along with talent evaluation, it is important to success. With Mookie, I think we should try hard to keep him . It may not be as hard as you might think, because there are not many teams that can afford to go that big and are also places where he might want to go . However, as stated before, you can't go crazy . There is no sense having a mega star if he is surrounded by a group of low pay mediocrities.