Sox sign Eovaldi

[jacksonianmarch]

According to current WAR projections, we are not only the favorites for the division, we're also the favorites in MLB.

 

Not that it means anything.

 

It doesn't mean anything right now or at any time. WAR projections are notoriously inaccurate. That being said, pegging yourselves as favorites without a pen is not realistic, but assuming it wont be upgraded between now and opening day is also foolish.

[notin]

I believe that is the only way they would be able to get one of the Guardians pitchers. I just see Cashman hesitant to pull the trigger, Very much like Cherington was.

 

Unless the Yankees are willing to part with Andujar or Torres, they aren’t getting Kluber. Their farm system is better than Boston’s, but it isn’t elite anymore as some prospects are now in the majors, some were dealt, etc. Last I saw their farm was ranked 18 out of 30, and I think lacks a top 30 prospect since the dealing of Sheffield.

 

Bottom line - Kluber would be a great acquisition, but her won’t be cheap. I doubt they pull the trigger...

[Kimmi]

It doesn't mean anything right now or at any time. WAR projections are notoriously inaccurate. That being said, pegging yourselves as favorites without a pen is not realistic, but assuming it wont be upgraded between now and opening day is also foolish.

 

We're the reigning WS Champs, with virtually the same team returning. Like the Astros last year, we're the favorites until another team proves they can take that away from us.

[Bellhorn04]

Unless the Yankees are willing to part with Andujar or Torres, they aren’t getting Kluber. Their farm system is better than Boston’s, but it isn’t elite anymore as some prospects are now in the majors, some were dealt, etc. Last I saw their farm was ranked 18 out of 30, and I think lacks a top 30 prospect since the dealing of Sheffield.

 

Bottom line - Kluber would be a great acquisition, but her won’t be cheap. I doubt they pull the trigger...

 

They could 'easily' do it, really, by signing Machado and trading Andujar.

[Fisk]

We're the reigning WS Champs, with virtually the same team returning. Like the Astros last year, we're the favorites until another team proves they can take that away from us.

 

Exactly

[jacksonianmarch]

And the Astros last year didn't lose anyone of value and added Cole, so clearly they remained the favorites. You've lost your closer and setup man and haven't replaced them. Once you replace them, then you can be favorites again. For now you've got a team with a top 5 offense and a top 5 rotation and a nothing pen.

[Fisk]

Unless the Yankees are willing to part with Andujar or Torres, they aren’t getting Kluber. Their farm system is better than Boston’s, but it isn’t elite anymore as some prospects are now in the majors, some were dealt, etc. Last I saw their farm was ranked 18 out of 30, and I think lacks a top 30 prospect since the dealing of Sheffield.

 

Bottom line - Kluber would be a great acquisition, but her won’t be cheap. I doubt they pull the trigger...

 

I believe they were ranked 18th before they traded Sheffield.

[Fisk]

And the Astros last year didn't lose anyone of value and added Cole, so clearly they remained the favorites. You've lost your closer and setup man and haven't replaced them. Once you replace them, then you can be favorites again. For now you've got a team with a top 5 offense and a top 5 rotation and a nothing pen.

 

 

I’m sorry I’ve been reading this forum for years and you do make very good points, but it seems like what you predict always comes out wrong.

[jacksonianmarch]

Unless the Yankees are willing to part with Andujar or Torres, they aren’t getting Kluber. Their farm system is better than Boston’s, but it isn’t elite anymore as some prospects are now in the majors, some were dealt, etc. Last I saw their farm was ranked 18 out of 30, and I think lacks a top 30 prospect since the dealing of Sheffield.

 

Bottom line - Kluber would be a great acquisition, but her won’t be cheap. I doubt they pull the trigger...

 

We have the deepest pitching farm in the league. This is out of Mayo's mouth. The problem is, our best pitching prospects beyond Abreu, Acevedo, Adams, and Loaisiga are below AA ball. We have the prospects for practically any deal, it just depends on how many we want to give up. I doubt Cash would be willing to do a 5 or 6 for 1 deal, so while we can make these moves, we aren't going to. We may use Andujar to get someone. We may use someone else. My bet is we re-sign Happ and let the kids grow. Next off-season, Bumgarner and Cole hit the open market and JMont should be entirely healthy. I wonder if we get a stopgap option or sign Happ for 2 seasons and move him after 1 to make room

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m sorry I’ve been reading this forum for years and you do make very good points, but it seems like what you predict always comes out wrong.

 

I expect the sox to add to the pen. Clearly this offseason just started, so it isn't like we know the finished product. If this sox team is complete, then you're gonna blow a lot of leads

[jacksonianmarch]

I believe they were ranked 18th before they traded Sheffield.

 

We will be top ten after 2019. I will stand by that and you can take that to the bank. The depth in the lower minors is insane and it will start to percolate into long season

[Kimmi]

And the Astros last year didn't lose anyone of value and added Cole, so clearly they remained the favorites. You've lost your closer and setup man and haven't replaced them. Once you replace them, then you can be favorites again. For now you've got a team with a top 5 offense and a top 5 rotation and a nothing pen.

 

I would argue that Barnes was our top reliever behind Kimbrel. At any rate, Kimbrel and Kelly combined gave us 2.2 WAR.

 

Also, our pen is not nothing. It is weaker than it was last year, but it's not nothing.

 

We're still the favorites. When we add a couple of relievers, we'll be heavier favorites.

[Fisk]

We have the deepest pitching farm in the league. This is out of Mayo's mouth. The problem is, our best pitching prospects beyond Abreu, Acevedo, Adams, and Loaisiga are below AA ball. We have the prospects for practically any deal, it just depends on how many we want to give up. I doubt Cash would be willing to do a 5 or 6 for 1 deal, so while we can make these moves, we aren't going to. We may use Andujar to get someone. We may use someone else. My bet is we re-sign Happ and let the kids grow. Next off-season, Bumgarner and Cole hit the open market and JMont should be entirely healthy. I wonder if we get a stopgap option or sign Happ for 2 seasons and move him after 1 to make room

Other teams have better prospects to offer, Guardians aren’t accepting low level pitching prospects who may never pan out for Kluber or Bauer. They want major league ready players.

[Fisk]

I would argue that Barnes was our top reliever behind Kimbrel. At any rate, Kimbrel and Kelly combined gave us 2.2 WAR.

 

Also, our pen is not nothing. It is weaker than it was last year, but it's not nothing.

 

We're still the favorites. When we add a couple of relievers, we'll be heavier favorites.

 

 

Kimbrel caused me to have near cardiac arrest many times last season. I’m alright replacing him.

Barnes has become underrated ready to come into his own.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would argue that Barnes was our top reliever behind Kimbrel. At any rate, Kimbrel and Kelly combined gave us 2.2 WAR.

 

Also, our pen is not nothing. It is weaker than it was last year, but it's not nothing.

 

We're still the favorites. When we add a couple of relievers, we'll be heavier favorites.

 

Reliever WAR is absolutely awful in terms of determining worth. I know the stat heads (and I like to think I am one of them) consider every inning the same, but the ball player in me knows that not to be the case. Not every player can close. And closing is quite possibly one of the most important roles on a squad. How often can you take a lead after 8 and stamp it down into a W. Kimbrel was one of the best. Losing him is not going to be easy to replace, especially in a tough town like Boston. I find it interesting for fans of a team who have seen some pretty bad closers march through entirely dismiss the importance of the role. Your 4 titles had 4 different closers, 3 of which were established at the time of winning the title. The 4th was Uehara, who was an established reliever but ended up just becoming a god for one season during the luckiest season I have ever seen for a team. The moral of the story is, you can hope a guy steps up and closes well for you, but previous season established closers have been integral to championship runs for 3 of your 4 title teams

[Fisk]

Reliever WAR is absolutely awful in terms of determining worth. I know the stat heads (and I like to think I am one of them) consider every inning the same, but the ball player in me knows that not to be the case. Not every player can close. And closing is quite possibly one of the most important roles on a squad. How often can you take a lead after 8 and stamp it down into a W. Kimbrel was one of the best. Losing him is not going to be easy to replace, especially in a tough town like Boston. I find it interesting for fans of a team who have seen some pretty bad closers march through entirely dismiss the importance of the role. Your 4 titles had 4 different closers, 3 of which were established at the time of winning the title. The 4th was Uehara, who was an established reliever but ended up just becoming a god for one season during the luckiest season I have ever seen for a team. The moral of the story is, you can hope a guy steps up and closes well for you, but previous season established closers have been integral to championship runs for 3 of your 4 title teams

 

We won 119 games last year with Kimbrel being an average closer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kimbrel was far from average. He was not top 3, but probably more in the 5-6 range in terms of closers.

[Fisk]

Kimbrel was far from average. He was not top 3, but probably more in the 5-6 range in terms of closers.

 

Last year he wasn’t seemed every game from July on was an adventure. There was no such thing as a 1,2,3 inning from him.

[Fisk]

We will be top ten after 2019. I will stand by that and you can take that to the bank. The depth in the lower minors is insane and it will start to percolate into long season

 

Not so sure on that you might be wearing your yankee rose colored glasses. I am excited by many of our lower level prospects but realize we will not be top 20 next year.

[notin]

Your 4 titles had 4 different closers, 3 of which were established at the time of winning the title. The 4th was Uehara, who was an established reliever but ended up just becoming a god for one season during the luckiest season I have ever seen for a team. The moral of the story is, you can hope a guy steps up and closes well for you, but previous season established closers have been integral to championship runs for 3 of your 4 title teams

 

Very misleading and a bit of a straw man argument.

 

One of the four was Palpelbon, who was only “established” because he got that way inNoston.

 

Also this whole “not anyone can close, especially in Boston” and the unsupported statement about the strings of failed closers. Who were they again?

 

Why is closing different from other bullpen roles? The most critical situation in a game comes up in the 6th through eighth inning more often than it does in the ninth, which was the actual moral of the Closer by Committee (or, as it should have been called Closer by Chad Fox) experiment in 2003. I mean, a huge chunk of save opportunities are 3 run leads. Should the Sox really designate their best reliever as a guy who can “shut down” an opponent for 3outs before he gives up 3 runs? Closers need to be good pitchers, but not necessarily better than the rest of the bullpen.

 

It’s funny how sports fans think of closers as athletes with a special skill that needs to be maximized to keep from losing. But no one ever feels that way about kickers (who really do have a special skill).

[jacksonianmarch]

That might be what is seemed like, but his WHIP was sub 1, his K rate was over 13 and he converted 42 of 47 opportunities. That's a top notch closer right there. There were only 10 closers with 30 or more saves in 2018. Of those, only 3 had a higher save percentage. Of the 30 closers with 10 or more saves, only 2 had a better BAA than Kimbrel. Kimbrel may have been wilder than usual in 2018, but nobody could hit him. He had a ridiculous .146 BAA. Only Chapman and Doolittle's were lower

[notin]

I

Last year he wasn’t seemed every game from July on was an adventure. There was no such thing as a 1,2,3 inning from him.

 

He was pretty as in the second half. Now let’s be fair. His April was unprecedented. How long did he go before a RHHreached base again?

[Fisk]

I

 

He was pretty as in the second half. Now let’s be fair. His April was unprecedented. How long did he go before a RHHreached base again?

 

Great in April I’m talking about the second half.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not so sure on that you might be wearing your yankee rose colored glasses. I am excited by many of our lower level prospects but realize we will not be top 20 next year.

 

I am very aware of the Yankees farm and I am not the only one tooting this horn. Mayo from MLB and the others will also say the depth in the Yankee farm is incredible. It is just very young. We just have a long list of pitchers who throw absolute smoke or have deep arsenals at young ages. It is rather impressive. On the offensive side, we go Florial and then to short season guys. Some of those guys will debut in long season. Once they do, we will rocket up the rankings

[Fisk]

I am very aware of the Yankees farm and I am not the only one tooting this horn. Mayo from MLB and the others will also say the depth in the Yankee farm is incredible. It is just very young. We just have a long list of pitchers who throw absolute smoke or have deep arsenals at young ages. It is rather impressive. On the offensive side, we go Florial and then to short season guys. Some of those guys will debut in long season. Once they do, we will rocket up the rankings

I think if everyone agreed they had that deep of an Arsenal they would rank higher and that 18th ranking is before there number 1 prospect was traded.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think if everyone agreed they had that deep of an Arsenal they would rank higher and that 18th ranking is before there number 1 prospect was traded.

 

Not at all. Prospect rankings are almost always proximity based. Mayo even said so on one of his chats. He said the Yankees' farm is the deepest in terms of quality pitching prospects. He made reference to the vast amount of teenagers running up to the mound hitting 98mph. He noted is as being unprecedented. Then he ranked the system 18th. When asked about that, he said the thing the Yanks lack is proximity beyond the very top of their pitching depth and proximity of their position prospects beyond Florial. That is a valid point and enough to agree with the placement in the rankings. It also means as the kids noted above rise, so should the Yanks in the rankings

[Fisk]

Not at all. Prospect rankings are almost always proximity based. Mayo even said so on one of his chats. He said the Yankees' farm is the deepest in terms of quality pitching prospects. He made reference to the vast amount of teenagers running up to the mound hitting 98mph. He noted is as being unprecedented. Then he ranked the system 18th. When asked about that, he said the thing the Yanks lack is proximity beyond the very top of their pitching depth and proximity of their position prospects beyond Florial. That is a valid point and enough to agree with the placement in the rankings. It also means as the kids noted above rise, so should the Yanks in the rankings

 

Hopefully for your sake it turns out to be true.

[notin]

Not at all. Prospect rankings are almost always proximity based. Mayo even said so on one of his chats. He said the Yankees' farm is the deepest in terms of quality pitching prospects. He made reference to the vast amount of teenagers running up to the mound hitting 98mph. He noted is as being unprecedented. Then he ranked the system 18th. When asked about that, he said the thing the Yanks lack is proximity beyond the very top of their pitching depth and proximity of their position prospects beyond Florial. That is a valid point and enough to agree with the placement in the rankings. It also means as the kids noted above rise, so should the Yanks in the rankings

 

The problem with having a slew of 98mph pitchers in A ball is a fraction of them will get injured and some of them will never recover. Another fraction will never get any semblance of control and become walk machines, which doesn’t work at any level.

 

So proximity is a big deal. Attrition happens...

[Fisk]

The problem with having a slew of 98mph pitchers in A ball is a fraction of them will get injured and some of them will never recover. Another fraction will never get any semblance of control and become walk machines, which doesn’t work at any level.

 

So proximity is a big deal. Attrition happens...

Thank you couldn’t have said it better.

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem with having a slew of 98mph pitchers in A ball is a fraction of them will get injured and some of them will never recover. Another fraction will never get any semblance of control and become walk machines, which doesn’t work at any level.

 

So proximity is a big deal. Attrition happens...

 

Absolutely, which is why I agree with the ranking. But all you need is 2 or 3 to reach the upper minors with command and all of a sudden you're a top 5 system again. Let me give you a list of pitchers to keep an eye on here.

 

Loaisiga

Schmidt

Contreras

Abreu

Gil

Medina

D. Garcia

Nelson

Adams

Sauer

Acevedo

Y. Gomez

Stephan

King

Otto

Then

Whitlock

Green

Barrios

F. Perez

Myatt

F. German

R. Garcia

Cortijo

Yajure

 

all of these guys can touch 95. Myatt, Medina, Gil, Abreu, Loaisiga, Schmidt, German, R. Garcia, Green, Otto, Acevedo, and Contreras can sit 95 or higher. And this is just the top 50 prospects. We go beyond this. 10 years ago, when I started prospect watching, you never saw guys at the end of the top 50 or left off with high velocity. Now, guys who didn't even make the top 80 are throwing cheese.