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Posted (edited)
His age.

 

How old was Papi in his last year?

 

Assuming his injury is nothing too serious, I don't see any reason why I don't gamble on JD having a great career here in Boston through age 37. Especially if he is primarily DH'ing?

Edited by Sox75
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Posted

Yeah not to worried about JD going through age 37, he's a kind of hitter that tends to age well, especially as he's being eased off the field defensively.

 

But then I'm the guy who wants the team to sign Adrian Beltre to a rental deal, so take that with the proverbial sodium chaser.

Posted
How old was Papi in his last year?

 

Assuming his injury is nothing too serious, I don't see any reason why I don't gamble on JD having a great career here in Boston through age 37. Especially if he is primarily DH'ing?

 

Sorry, I forgot every Sox player ages as well as Papi.

Posted
Sorry, I forgot every Sox player ages as well as Papi.

 

Of course they don't. But Martinez has a way better-than-average chance to age well. He was promoted to starter relatively late, meaning he has less wear and tear on his body than a lot of top guys, similar to Ortiz in that regard, I haven't heard of any major physical issues for Martinez, and he's got the kind of hitting smarts that will allow him to stay competitive as his body slows down the same way it did for guys like big Papi or Frank Thomas.

 

Also quite frankly, Martinez doesn't have the thick core on him that weighed down Thomas or even Ortiz at times. He's in very good shape unlike a lot of bat first thumpers, and that will help him age better than the likes of Big Hurt as well.

Posted
After recently seeing his hitting splits between his DH games and his time in the outfield in his great first season in Boston, it is clear that he hits much better when he is on the field. It is also clear that our outfield is better defended by the trio of Benintendi, Bradley and Betts. And, another factor is that Martinez will far out produce the combination of Moreland and Pearce even if both guys were great teammates in this championship season.

 

I see him as the classic hitter who needs to move to first base ASAP. Lots of other hitters have made this move (Banks, Yaz, Aaron, Mantle, etc) to keep their bats in the lineup while also helping their team defensively.

 

With Martinez athletic ability there is no question he could handle first base. He also is a student of the game, so learning and understanding the mental parts of the position will not be a problem either.

 

If he does not yet have a good first baseman's glove we should all donate a few dimes to get him one. Your thoughts..

 

I'm surprised that the Sox did not start giving JD some reps at 1B as soon as they DFA'd Hanley.

 

At any rate, I like the idea of JD playing some first base for us next year. He can still play in the OF from time to time too.

Posted
If 1B is going to be tried, you don't wait until spring training. You talk to him and see if he's okay with the idea and ask him to start working out taking grounders with a FBman mitt and scooping low throws before ST'ing begins.

 

Agreed. If this is something the Sox are considering, I'm sure Cora is all over it.

Posted
If they had done that, we wouldn't have had Steve Pearce when we needed him. I'm guessing that if we DD hadn't gotten a great deal for Pearce, we might have seen JD take some reps at first. As it was, there was no need to try it because we had a good one-two punch at first base with Moreland providing a high level of offense while Pearce brought a strong bat to the table.
Posted
If I'm the Sox, I offer an extension of 72 mill for the first 3 years, & add 4 years at an average of 22 million. $154 million total, 7 years.

 

Any reason that couldn't happen?

 

I would not give him a contract extension of that length. The best thing about JD's contract was the reasonable of its length, even if JD was just so-so and chose not to opt out. I think it would be a mistake for the Sox to now go back and turn it into a contract that's far too long.

Posted (edited)
Agreed. If this is something the Sox are considering, I'm sure Cora is all over it.

 

I suspect that if the team was even considering this for real, we'd have heard something about it by now. We definitely heard about it the last time they tried something in this category, with the experiments with Hanley at first base.

 

I think there's roughly 10% chance that JD takes significant snaps at first base next year.

 

I think it's actually substantially more likely that Devers moves over to first base in the next year plus given the struggles he's already had to physically handle the demands of third base, I'd put that at somewhere around a 30% chance. With his weight already being an issue at 22, it's probably going to be sooner rather than later that his mobility and range declines enough to force a position switch a la Edwin Encarnacion.

 

For the remaining 60%... well, my actual guess is that Pearce will wind up back in Boston to shoot for another ring and the Pearce-Moreland tandem will be enough to render the 1B position a nonproblem for 2019.

Edited by Dojji
Posted
I think it's not a bad idea , especially if we don't sign Pearce. And assuming that J.D. is on board with it. If he isn't , then I wouldn't try to force the issue.
Posted
I suspect that if the team was even considering this for real, we'd have heard something about it by now. We definitely heard about it the last time they tried something in this category, with the experiments with Hanley at first base.

 

I think there's roughly 10% chance that JD takes significant snaps at first base next year.

 

I think it's actually substantially more likely that Devers moves over to first base in the next year plus given the struggles he's already had to physically handle the demands of third base, I'd put that at somewhere around a 30% chance.

 

For the remaining 60%... well, my actual guess is that Pearce will wind up back in Boston to shoot for another ring and the Pearce-Moreland tandem will be enough to render the 1B position a nonproblem for 2019.

 

I don't think that we would have necessarily heard anything about it yet. Some of the decision on whether to try JD at first will be determined by what else happens in the offseason, which is still in the very early stages.

 

As far as Devers moving to first, I can see that happening in the future, but I don't see it happening this year. Not with Moreland slated to be back.

Posted
I would not give him a contract extension of that length. The best thing about JD's contract was the reasonable of its length, even if JD was just so-so and chose not to opt out. I think it would be a mistake for the Sox to now go back and turn it into a contract that's far too long.

 

And the worst part? He can opt out after the 2nd & 3rd years.... Unless we plan on him injuring himself winning the 2019 WSC, I like the idea of floating him AT LEAST a guarantee on the 4th & 5th year, plus 2 more. Perhaps at a reduced rate on yrs 6 & 7.

Posted
I don't think that we would have necessarily heard anything about it yet. Some of the decision on whether to try JD at first will be determined by what else happens in the offseason, which is still in the very early stages.

 

As far as Devers moving to first, I can see that happening in the future, but I don't see it happening this year. Not with Moreland slated to be back.

 

Moreland is a slightly better Doug Mientkiewicz. If the organization decides they need to move Devers to 1B, he's not going to stand in the way.

 

Honestly, I'm about half convinced that that's the whole reason he's here in the first place. I think the organization sees Devers as an absolutely HUGE part of their future and want to keep their options open.

Posted (edited)
I would not give him a contract extension of that length. The best thing about JD's contract was the reasonable of its length, even if JD was just so-so and chose not to opt out. I think it would be a mistake for the Sox to now go back and turn it into a contract that's far too long.

 

Imagine making the same decision about David Ortiz in 2011 when he was 35 years old.

 

When you have an elite talent, pinching pennies is idiotic. We should have all gotten that out of our system when BC lowballed Jon Lester. It's not like we didn't know that would wind up being a mistake.

 

When a player is likely to be worth his contract, haggling over pennies never makes sense.

 

Turns out the hassle of trying to replace an elite player usually costs more in terms of money, time and especially talent, than retaining the original player might have. If we didn't lowball Lester we wouldn't have had to overspend on Price. That represents what's called an opportunity cost which has to be factored into any decision involving changing personnel. The opportunity cost of Lester moving on was needing to make multiple decisive moves to upgrade the rotation, culminating in the Price signing for waaaaaaay more than keeping Lester would have cost.

 

And that's a pretty telling example. It's usually better to go a bit over your spending limit to ensure the talent you need stays where you need it, than to be Scrooge McDuck and sacrifice the primary objective in the name of saving a few of someone else's dollars.

Edited by Dojji
Posted
And the worst part? He can opt out after the 2nd & 3rd years.... Unless we plan on him injuring himself winning the 2019 WSC, I like the idea of floating him AT LEAST a guarantee on the 4th & 5th year, plus 2 more. Perhaps at a reduced rate on yrs 6 & 7.

 

I get the sentiment. I really do. I do not like the thought of him opting out after next year.

 

I would not be averse to upping his salary for years 3, 4, and 5 if he chose to stay.

Posted
Moreland is a slightly better Doug Mientkiewicz. If the organization decides they need to move Devers to 1B, he's not going to stand in the way.

 

Honestly, I'm about half convinced that that's the whole reason he's here in the first place. I think the organization sees Devers as an absolutely HUGE part of their future and want to keep their options open.

 

I do agree that the Sox see Devers as a huge part of the future.

 

I don't think that they're going to be that quick to give up on Devers at 3rd base.

Posted
I do agree that the Sox see Devers as a huge part of the future.

 

I don't think that they're going to be that quick to give up on Devers at 3rd base.

 

If the choices are "Devers gets hurt and misses significant time every year" and "Devers moves to a less physically demanding position," they'll bench Moreland faster than you can say "thanks for your years of service."

Posted
Imagine making the same decision about David Ortiz in 2011 when he was 35 years old.

 

When you have an elite talent, pinching pennies is idiotic. We should have all gotten that out of our system when BC lowballed Jon Lester. It's not like we didn't know that would wind up being a mistake.

 

When a player is likely to be worth his contract, haggling over pennies never makes sense.

 

Turns out the hassle of trying to replace an elite player usually costs more in terms of money, time and especially talent, than retaining the original player might have. If we didn't lowball Lester we wouldn't have had to overspend on Price. That represents what's called an opportunity cost which has to be factored into any decision involving changing personnel. The opportunity cost of Lester moving on was needing to make multiple decisive moves to upgrade the rotation, culminating in the Price signing for waaaaaaay more than keeping Lester would have cost.

 

And that's a pretty telling example. It's usually better to go a bit over your spending limit to ensure the talent you need stays where you need it, than to be Scrooge McDuck and sacrifice the primary objective in the name of saving a few of someone else's dollars.

 

I am in complete agreement about Lester. The Sox messed up on that one.

 

As far as I remember, Ortiz was never given a long term contract as he got up in age. It's not the dollars I'm concerned about. It's the years. Anything over 4 years and I'm hesitant. That's just me.

 

A player being worth his contract in the past guarantees nothing for the future. Guaranteeing an aging player 7 years because he was worth it in the past is not good business.

Posted
If the choices are "Devers gets hurt and misses significant time every year" and "Devers moves to a less physically demanding position," they'll bench Moreland faster than you can say "thanks for your years of service."

 

I don't necessarily disagree with that.

 

I'm not counting on Devers getting hurt because he's playing 3rd base instead of 1st base though.

Posted (edited)

The concern is that Devers has actually put on a fair bit of weight in the last 18 months. His listed playing weight is 237, and we know that those statistics tend to be understated. If he gets much over 250, he's going to have to switch over. A 6'0" guy is going to struggle to carry that much weight at a position that requires a high level of athleticism and that struggle will lead to injuries. And he's only 22, that weight figure is going to go up slowly but steadily as he progresses through his late 20s and into his 30s, and that's even if he works like mad to stay fit.

 

Hopefully Devers doesn't go full Pablob, but the dude is already heavier than Edwin Encarnacion, and as he fills out, he's going to slow down.

 

He'll be at 1B by age 27 if things go on at this rate.

Edited by Dojji
Posted

or to put it another way -- going strictly by listed playing weight, Rafi Devers is already thicker and heavier than David Ortiz. Papi was listed at 6'3" 230, and Devers is 3 inches shorter and 7 pounds heavier.

 

I think it's a slam dunk that he's going to have some mobility issues as he progresses through his 20s.

Posted
Moreland is a slightly better Doug Mientkiewicz. If the organization decides they need to move Devers to 1B, he's not going to stand in the way.

 

Honestly, I'm about half convinced that that's the whole reason he's here in the first place. I think the organization sees Devers as an absolutely HUGE part of their future and want to keep their options open.

 

Actually Mientkiewicz was a much better player before the Sox killed his career by putting him in a part time role.

 

I agree Moreland is not the future at 1b, but I don't know if they view him as a placeholder for Devers...

Posted

Having JDM being able to play 1B seems like such a natural move that I've been amazed that it hasn't happened before. I don't see any downside to it for anyone. He's a relatively big guy @ 6'3" & 220 lbs so he has the natural size for it and he's a good athlete.

Moving him to 1B could make JDM into a full-time player on the Sox without weakening our OF on "rest days" for the B's, it would make everyone available on interleague days, and it would build JDM's value on the market if/when he opts out by making him more versatile. In addition, he wants to p/ay defense and if he's not going to do that on the Sox as long as the B's are roaming the OF.

 

Win/Win/Win.

Posted
or to put it another way -- going strictly by listed playing weight, Rafi Devers is already thicker and heavier than David Ortiz. Papi was listed at 6'3" 230, and Devers is 3 inches shorter and 7 pounds heavier.

 

I think it's a slam dunk that he's going to have some mobility issues as he progresses through his 20s.

 

Listed heights weights mean nothing. I’ve seen Pedroia listed st 5’10”...

Posted

I saw David Ortiz listed as being 240 lbs and I'd swear that Papi's left leg weighed more than that! :)

 

However, if we dismiss listed weights as meaning nothing then we have nothing to go by other than our own opinions. If we dismiss the posted heights & weights then Pedey is probably somewhere between 2'0 and 11'0 tall and Ortiz probably weighs somewhere between 100 & 900 lbs.

 

Ok, I'm being facetious, but still... we have to have something to go by and IMO Devers shedding a few lb's should make him quicker defensively.

Posted

Nobody ever asked Papi to lose weight. You don't mess with greatness. Granted, Devers plays 3B not DH and occasional 1B, so losing weight makes sense for defensive purposes, but it does make me wonder about it possibly (maybe if only slightly) with his swing and offense.

 

I recall, the photos of the mighty Babe showed him to be on the heavy side as well. Would he have hit better as a skinny guy?

Posted
Nobody ever asked Papi to lose weight. You don't mess with greatness. Granted, Devers plays 3B not DH and occasional 1B, so losing weight makes sense for defensive purposes, but it does make me wonder about it possibly (maybe if only slightly) with his swing and offense.

 

I recall, the photos of the mighty Babe showed him to be on the heavy side as well. Would he have hit better as a skinny guy?

 

Actually Babe Ruth spent mot of his career as a thin athlete. Most of the pictures and footage of him you see if from the latter part of his career. It also doesn’t help that actors like John Goodman are cast to portray him...

Posted
Actually Babe Ruth spent mot of his career as a thin athlete. Most of the pictures and footage of him you see if from the latter part of his career. It also doesn’t help that actors like John Goodman are cast to portray him...

 

Stick legs and big gut are displayed in fotos. Yes, thinner in his early years, but always a ponch.

 

https://www.google.com/search?biw=1242&bih=597&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=wAXnW_zWMY3ezwK9joOABQ&q=babe+ruth+red+sox&oq=babe+ruth+red&gs_l=img.1.0.0l6j0i8i30l2j0i24l2.32559.33993..35279...0.0..0.152.443.1j3......1....1..gws-wiz-img.......0i67.BxFEJlk9g_Y#imgrc=C8G0k2W1IrP5VM:

 

 

Posted

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