A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Assuming no major injuries (unlikely) which line would you project for these key players?

 

Player

A. OPS/ HRs choice better than 2018

B. OPS/ HRs choice close to 2018

C. OPS/ HRs choice worse than 2018

 

My choices in RED

 

Betts (680 PAs)

A. 1.100/ 35+

B. 1.050/ 30+

C. .950/ 25+

 

JDM (660 PAs)

A. 1.050/ 45+

B. 1.000/ 42+

C. .900/ 35+

 

Beni (680 PAs)

A. .900/ 24+

B. .850/ 18+

C. .800/ 15+

 

Bogey (640 PAs)

A. .900/ 24+

B. .850/ 22+

C. .800/20+

 

JBJ (600 PAs)

A. .800/18+

B. .750/15+

C. .700/ 12+

 

Devers (600 PAs)

A. .800/ 28+

B. .750/ 24+

C. .700/ 20+

 

Moreland (400 PAs)

A. .780/ 18+

B. .740/ 15+

C. .700/ 12+

 

Pearce (400 PAs)

A. .850/ 18+

B. .780/ 15+

C. .720/ 12+

 

Nunez (500 PAs)

A. .750/ 14+

B. .700/ 12+

C. .650/ 10+

 

Holt (450 PAs)

A. .780/ 8+

B. .740/ 6+

C. .700/ 4+

 

Pedey

A. 301+ PAs

B. 151-300 PAs

C. 150 or less PAs

 

Vaz (350 PAs)

A. .700/ 6+

B. .625/ 4+

C. .550/ 2+

 

Leon (250 PAs)

A. .650/ 6+

B. .575/ 4+

C. .500/ 2+

 

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[BillyWilliams]

Assuming no major injuries (unlikely) which line would you project for these key players?

 

Player

A. OPS/ HRs choice better than 2018

B. OPS/ HRs choice close to 2018

C. OPS/ HRs choice worse than 2018

 

My choices in RED

 

Betts (680 PAs)

A. 1.100/ 35+

B. 1.050/ 30+

C. .950/ 25+

 

JDM (660 PAs)

A. 1.050/ 45+

B. 1.000/ 42+

C. .900/ 35+

 

Beni (680 PAs)

A. .900/ 24+

B. .850/ 18+

C. .800/ 15+

 

Bogey (640 PAs)

A. .900/ 24+

B. .850/ 22+

C. .800/20+

 

JBJ (600 PAs)

A. .800/18+

B. .750/15+

C. .700/ 12+

 

Devers (600 PAs)

A. .800/ 28+

B. .750/ 24+

C. .700/ 20+

 

Moreland (400 PAs)

A. .780/ 18+

B. .740/ 15+

C. .700/ 12+

 

Pearce (400 PAs)

A. .850/ 18+

B. .780/ 15+

C. .720/ 12+

 

Nunez (500 PAs)

A. .750/ 14+

B. .700/ 12+

C. .650/ 10+

 

Holt (450 PAs)

A. .780/ 8+

B. .740/ 6+

C. .700/ 4+

 

Pedey

A. 301+ PAs

B. 151-300 PAs

C. 150 or less PAs

 

Vaz (350 PAs)

A. .700/ 6+

B. .625/ 4+

C. .550/ 2+

 

Leon (250 PAs)

A. .650/ 6+

B. .575/ 4+

C. .500/ 2+

 

 

 

So basically everyone but pedroia is going to either be the same or better?

[harmony]

Assuming no major injuries (unlikely) which line would you project for these key players?

 

Player

A. OPS/ HRs choice better than 2018

B. OPS/ HRs choice close to 2018

C. OPS/ HRs choice worse than 2018

 

My choices in RED

 

Betts (680 PAs)

A. 1.100/ 35+

B. 1.050/ 30+

C. .950/ 25+

 

JDM (660 PAs)

A. 1.050/ 45+

B. 1.000/ 42+

C. .900/ 35+

 

Beni (680 PAs)

A. .900/ 24+

B. .850/ 18+

C. .800/ 15+

 

Bogey (640 PAs)

A. .900/ 24+

B. .850/ 22+

C. .800/20+

 

JBJ (600 PAs)

A. .800/18+

B. .750/15+

C. .700/ 12+

 

Devers (600 PAs)

A. .800/ 28+

B. .750/ 24+

C. .700/ 20+

 

Moreland (400 PAs)

A. .780/ 18+

B. .740/ 15+

C. .700/ 12+

 

Pearce (400 PAs)

A. .850/ 18+

B. .780/ 15+

C. .720/ 12+

 

Nunez (500 PAs)

A. .750/ 14+

B. .700/ 12+

C. .650/ 10+

 

Holt (450 PAs)

A. .780/ 8+

B. .740/ 6+

C. .700/ 4+

 

Pedey

A. 301+ PAs

B. 151-300 PAs

C. 150 or less PAs

 

Vaz (350 PAs)

A. .700/ 6+

B. .625/ 4+

C. .550/ 2+

 

Leon (250 PAs)

A. .650/ 6+

B. .575/ 4+

C. .500/ 2+

 

 

Only one negative regression? That's optimistic.

 

I'll take the over.

[moonslav59]

Assuming no injuries (unlikely), which line would you project for these pitchers:

 

Pitcher

IP/ ERA

 

My Choices in RED

 

Sale

A. 195+/2.25

B. 180+/2.40

C. 160+/2.70

 

Price

A. 195+/3.20

B. 180+/3.60

C. 160+/4.00

 

Porcello

A. 200+/3.80

B. 190+/4.10

C. 170+/4.40

 

Eovaldi

A. 180+/3.20

B. 165+/3.50

C. 150+/3.80

 

ERod

A. 160+/3.60

B. 140+/3.80

C. 120+/4.00

 

Johnson/Velazquez/Wright combined SP & RP

A. 300+/4.00

B. 250+/4.25

C. 200+/4.50+

 

PEN

 

Barnes

A. 65+/3.25

B. 60+/3.65

C. 55+/4.00

 

Brasier

A. 65+/3.00

B. 60+/3.40

C. 55+/3.80

 

Hembree

A. 65+/3.75

B. 60+/4.20

C. 55+/4.50

 

Thornburg

A. 50+ IP

B. 35-49 IP

C. 0-34 IP

 

Workman

A. 50+/ 3.20

B. 40+/ 3.50

C. 30+/ 3.80

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Only one negative regression? That's optimistic.

 

I'll take the over.

 

Actually, Betts, JD, Bogey, Holt and Moreland's B choice showed slight regression from 2018.

 

That's 5 out of the 10 players with 400+ PAs projected regressing.

Edited January 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I asked Alexa ; " Alexa , who is going to close for the Red Sox this year ?" She said , " Hmmm, I'm not sure." True story.

 

Your mistake was in asking Alexa.

 

Next time, ask Kimmi.

[Kimmi]

I have to defend Dombrowski here. His job does involve looking at 2020 NOW. Not in 2020. Now!

 

It may not be popular with the fans, but that is the cold, hard reality of his job. And that won’t change just because fans don’t like it. As the saying goes “Don’t listen to the people in the stands, or else you’ll wind up sitting with them.”...

 

Truth be told, he should have been thinking about 2020 when he was selling the farm back in 2016.

[Kimmi]

As a fan, you have the luxury of saying “Forget 2020! Go for it now!! Strike while the iron is hot!! And all those other cliches!!”

 

But my point is DD would be negligent in his job to act in such a manner. Not only is thinking about 2020 and beyond part of his job, really, so is thinking about July, 2019.

 

Injuries are inevitable. Leaving yourself unprepared for this is foolish...

 

Dombrowski has been in win now mode since he came here.

 

I'm not sure why this year would be any different, especially when there's such a strong chance of us repeating.

 

Unless Henry has really tightened the reigns.

[Kimmi]

I don't understand how the idea of building a great pen without spending a fortune gets twisted into "we don't need a good closer".

 

If Kimbrel can be signed to a reasonable contract, say 2/24 or something similar, fine.

No way should the Sox even come close to what he's asking for.

Let's see how he feels about coming back in the middle of Feb.

 

For whatever reason, a lot of people equate 'great' with 'expensive'. Yes, great can mean expensive, but it doesn't have to be that way. A great BP can be built for relatively cheap amounts. The best closers/relievers often come out of nowhere.

 

Kimbrel's market seems to be dwindling, but I'm guessing he will still get a lucrative deal. Not anything close to the $100 mil though.

[moonslav59]

Truth be told, he should have been thinking about 2020 when he was selling the farm back in 2016.

 

I was very worried about the amount of prospects traded by DD. It was a big gamble that paid off. It would have really sucked had we not won last year.

 

Now that we won, part of me is thinking why not start now and try to minimize the longer term outlook by starting the rebuild now, but a bigger part of me is thinking our current team, as is, even without CK and JK, is too damn good to not take another serious try for a 2019 ring.

 

That being said, I'm thinking, sure, let's try to win in 2019, but not at the expense of 2021 and beyond (assuming 2020 is the reset season). The Eovaldi deal was a bit puzzling, but he can be very helpful in 2021& 2022.

 

I think the priority, today, is to do our best to win in 2019 without hurting 2021. Maybe the 2019 budget can go over the $40M line, but longer term deals must be viewed against the projected 2021 budget and roster. If the reset is going to happen after this year, all 2+ year deals need to be considered according to the reset. (Who do we trade? Who do we not re-sign? How bad will we allow the team to be in 2020? How good can the 2021 team be, assuming the tax is reset and we are allowed to spend $39M over the line?)

 

[Kimmi]

I was very worried about the amount of prospects traded by DD. It was a big gamble that paid off. It would have really sucked had we not won last year.

 

Now that we won, part of me is thinking why not start now and try to minimize the longer term outlook by starting the rebuild now, but a bigger part of me is thinking our current team, as is, even without CK and JK, is too damn good to not take another serious try for a 2019 ring.

 

That being said, I'm thinking, sure, let's try to win in 2019, but not at the expense of 2021 and beyond (assuming 2020 is the reset season). The Eovaldi deal was a bit puzzling, but he can be very helpful in 2021& 2022.

 

I think the priority, today, is to do our best to win in 2019 without hurting 2021. Maybe the 2019 budget can go over the $40M line, but longer term deals must be viewed against the projected 2021 budget and roster. If the reset is going to happen after this year, all 2+ year deals need to be considered according to the reset. (Who do we trade? Who do we not re-sign? How bad will we allow the team to be in 2020? How good can the 2021 team be, assuming the tax is reset and we are allowed to spend $39M over the line?)

 

 

I pretty much agree with all of this Moon. I think we have a good shot at winning it all again in 2019 without further jeopardizing the future.

 

I don't have the answers to how all of this will or should play out. It will take some creativity.

 

The Sox have apparently been talking extension with one of young players, presumably Beni. That's a good place to start, IMO.

[oldtimer]

I pretty much agree with all of this Moon. I think we have a good shot at winning it all again in 2019 without further jeopardizing the future.

 

I don't have the answers to how all of this will or should play out. It will take some creativity.

 

The Sox have apparently been talking extension with one of young players, presumably Beni. That's a good place to start, IMO.

 

The same 3 questions remain from before the winter meetingss.

 

1. Who will we get for a closer, if anyone?

 

2. Which catcher will we choose to trade away?

 

3. Will Pedey actually recover sufficiently to be our starting second baseman?

 

The closer is the most pressing need although the catcher question might get involved in the closer question. The Pedey question is not as pressing although if the results of Pedey's return to running exercises proves problematic, that may change its urgency. I am not in a position to give solid advice to DD so will await his moves and comment then.

[cp176]

So I am learning I guess that it is just not possible to be a consistent winner year after year even though we have been in recent years? I think that much of this debate centers around what you like or don't like about team building. If you don't like the way that DD has put us in a position to be consistent winners, then obviously you see future roadblocks. If you like what he has done, then you likely have confidence that he ain't bad and we will be able to compete in future years. I'm quite pleased with what has been accomplished and I am looking forward to the success that we will have in the future.

[cp176]

The same 3 questions remain from before the winter meetingss.

 

1. Who will we get for a closer, if anyone?

 

2. Which catcher will we choose to trade away?

 

3. Will Pedey actually recover sufficiently to be our starting second baseman?

 

The closer is the most pressing need although the catcher question might get involved in the closer question. The Pedey question is not as pressing although if the results of Pedey's return to running exercises proves problematic, that may change its urgency. I am not in a position to give solid advice to DD so will await his moves and comment then.

 

I see the same 3 issues for sure - I do think that another relief pitcher will be added. I think that the catching tandem is likely to get one more year. I don't think that they are quite ready to give up on Vazquez's ability to hit just yet. Leon is the better catcher but they both are adequate. I don't see second base as an issue - we have Holt and Nunez.

[moonslav59]

The same 3 questions remain from before the winter meetings.

 

1. Who will we get for a closer, if anyone?

 

My guess is we get Cody Allen and/or Brad Brach. We may possibly trade for a low cost closer.

 

2. Which catcher will we choose to trade away?

 

We may not trade any of the 3, as Swihart can play other positions. We ended up needing all 3 last year.

 

 

3. Will Pedey actually recover sufficiently to be our starting second baseman?

 

This will not be answered until we see it happen. He could look good, then get hurt day 1.

[jacksonianmarch]

I really hope you get Cody Allen or Brad Brach to close. You will lose a lot of games you should have won

[moonslav59]

I really hope you get Cody Allen or Brad Brach to close. You will lose a lot of games you should have won

 

Getting CK would put the Yanks in a better position for 2020, 2021, 2022 and maybe 2023, if CK signs for 5 years.

 

I'll take Allen and Brach or both. Maybe one and trade for another.

 

It's not as good as getting CK or Ottavino, but it's still good enough to keep us the faves, while helping our longer term outlook enormously.

[jacksonianmarch]

Getting CK would put the Yanks in a better position for 2020, 2021, 2022 and maybe 2023, if CK signs for 5 years.

 

I'll take Allen and Brach or both. Maybe one and trade for another.

 

It's not as good as getting CK or Ottavino, but it's still good enough to keep us the faves, while helping our longer term outlook enormously.

 

How does it keep you favorites? You lose Kelly and Kimbrel and bring in a guy who was awful last year with the hopes he finds it in the pressure cooker of Boston? The Yanks got better already. They are probably getting even better before the season. And you are getting worse

[moonslav59]

How does it keep you favorites? You lose Kelly and Kimbrel and bring in a guy who was awful last year with the hopes he finds it in the pressure cooker of Boston? The Yanks got better already. They are probably getting even better before the season. And you are getting worse

 

We didn't have Eovaldi, Brasier and Pearce all year- now we do. Shouldn't that offset some of the loss?

 

Most of our key players are on the upswing in terms of age curve production and prime years. (Less post prime in key roles than your Yanks.)

 

We heard how sucky our pen was all last year, and we won anyways. We won, despite CK's horrible playoff numbers.

 

Injuries could play a big role, but we basically won without Sale (our best starter) who was MIA the whole second half of 2018.

 

Wright, Pedey & Thornburg missed about the whole year. Many other players missed time or played hurt a lot (Devers, Betts, Bogey, Nunez, Vaz, and ERod).

 

I think we'll be faves, even after you guys add Machado.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

We didn't have Eovaldi, Brasier and Pearce all year- now we do. Shouldn't that offset some of the loss?

 

Most of our key players are on the upswing in terms of age curve production and prime years. (Less post prime in key roles than your Yanks.)

 

We heard how sucky our pen was all last year, and we won anyways. We won, despite CK's horrible playoff numbers.

 

Injuries could play a big role, but we basically won without Sale (our best starter) who was MIA the whole second half of 2018.

 

Wright, Pedey & Thornburg missed about the whole year. Many other players missed time or played hurt a lot (Devers, Betts, Bogey, Nunez, Vaz, and ERod).

 

I think we'll be faves, even after you guys add Machado.

 

 

If the Yanks get Machado, they will be faves. That's not necessarily a bad thing though.

[moonslav59]

If the Yanks get Machado, they will be faves. That's not necessarily a bad thing though.

 

It will be close.

[moonslav59]

When has the pen become more important than the rotation?

 

Here's how I rank the rivals' starters:

 

1. Sale

2. Price

3. Severino

4. Paxton

5. Porcello

6. Tanaka

7. Eovaldi

8. ERod

9. Happ

10. Sabathia

 

Best Hitters

1. Betts

2. JD

(Machado)

3. Judge

4. Stanton

5. Bogey

6. Beni

7. Hicks

8. Devers

9. Sanchez

10. Andujar

11. Pearce/Moreland

12. Didi (half year)

13. Torres

14. JBJ

15. Pedey/Nunez/Holt

16. Gardner

17. Voit/Byrd

18. Vaz/Leon

 

Defense:

Advantage Sox

 

Base running:

Advantage S0x

 

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

We didn't have Eovaldi, Brasier and Pearce all year- now we do. Shouldn't that offset some of the loss?

 

Most of our key players are on the upswing in terms of age curve production and prime years. (Less post prime in key roles than your Yanks.)

 

We heard how sucky our pen was all last year, and we won anyways. We won, despite CK's horrible playoff numbers.

 

Injuries could play a big role, but we basically won without Sale (our best starter) who was MIA the whole second half of 2018.

 

Wright, Pedey & Thornburg missed about the whole year. Many other players missed time or played hurt a lot (Devers, Betts, Bogey, Nunez, Vaz, and ERod).

 

I think we'll be faves, even after you guys add Machado.

 

 

 

We lost a silver slugger effectively for the whole season in Sanchez who couldn't hit and it turns out he had a shoulder issue that is now surgically fixed. Stanton was sub par in his first year in NY. We lost Judge for 6 weeks. Our 1b position didn't solidify until August. We will have a full year of Happ and Paxton (who you conveniently seem to forget is a Yankee). We offset Robertson by having a full year of Britton. Kahnle is now healthy.

 

Sale's second half-less season doesn't remove the fact that his 150ish innings racked up a 6+ WAR season. The guy who finished the year looked hurt. If he is not the same, then you're in trouble. Eovaldi was okay in the regular season and became a hero in the post season. He is not an ace. Price lost some velocity and saw a career high HR rate. And while he had two good postseason starts, people seem to forget he had two really bad ones. He's got a ton of miles and is a power pitcher. ERod had the most upside of the guys who missed time last year and he might offset some lost production from Sale should he not be healthy. That is assuming ERod has a healthy season, which he never does. Your offense was buoyed by a career season from Betts. He is gonna regress. I doubt JD has a third consecutive career season. Pedroia is likely not coming back as a guy you'd want to see play. Thornburg has been trash since surgery.

 

If we add Machado, how does that not do anything? You don't add a 6WAR player and not improve

[jacksonianmarch]

When has the pen become more important than the rotation?

 

Here's how I rank the rivals' starters:

 

1. Sale

2. Price

3. Severino

4. Paxton

5. Porcello

6. Tanaka

7. Eovaldi

8. ERod

9. Happ

10. Sabathia

 

Best Hitters

1. Betts

2. JD

(Machado)

3. Judge

4. Stanton

5. Bogey

6. Beni

7. Hicks

8. Devers

9. Sanchez

10. Andujar

11. Pearce/Moreland

12. Didi (half year)

13. Torres

14. JBJ

15. Pedey/Nunez/Holt

16. Gardner

17. Voit/Byrd

18. Vaz/Leon

 

Defense:

Advantage Sox

 

Base running:

Advantage S0x

 

 

 

 

 

That's pretty dumb, to be entirely honest. Take off the rose colored glasses

[moonslav59]

We lost a silver slugger effectively for the whole season in Sanchez who couldn't hit and it turns out he had a shoulder issue that is now surgically fixed. Stanton was sub par in his first year in NY. We lost Judge for 6 weeks. Our 1b position didn't solidify until August. We will have a full year of Happ and Paxton (who you conveniently seem to forget is a Yankee). We offset Robertson by having a full year of Britton. Kahnle is now healthy.

 

Sale's second half-less season doesn't remove the fact that his 150ish innings racked up a 6+ WAR season. The guy who finished the year looked hurt. If he is not the same, then you're in trouble. Eovaldi was okay in the regular season and became a hero in the post season. He is not an ace. Price lost some velocity and saw a career high HR rate. And while he had two good postseason starts, people seem to forget he had two really bad ones. He's got a ton of miles and is a power pitcher. ERod had the most upside of the guys who missed time last year and he might offset some lost production from Sale should he not be healthy. That is assuming ERod has a healthy season, which he never does. Your offense was buoyed by a career season from Betts. He is gonna regress. I doubt JD has a third consecutive career season. Pedroia is likely not coming back as a guy you'd want to see play. Thornburg has been trash since surgery.

 

If we add Machado, how does that not do anything? You don't add a 6WAR player and not improve

 

When did I ever come close to saying the Yanks won't be better than 2018 by adding Machado?

[moonslav59]

That's pretty dumb, to be entirely honest. Take off the rose colored glasses

 

Show me how you rank the non pen players.

[Larry Cook]

Anybody hear in the radio that desperate Dave trying to sign benintendi to an eight year deal?

[moonslav59]

Anybody hear in the radio that desperate Dave trying to sign benintendi to an eight year deal?

 

No, but word is out he's looking to extend someone, and the guess was Beni.

[Larry Cook]

No, but word is out he's looking to extend someone, and the guess was Beni.

 

So what does that deal look like?

[moonslav59]

So what does that deal look like?

 

Hard to say. It will likely go 1-3 years beyond his last arb year.

 

It's going to add to our luxury tax line now and for the next 2-3 years but will likely save later.

 

Maybe a comp is with the Longoria deal.