Yankees vs Red Sox ALDS thread

[BillyWilliams]

The Post’s experts offer Yankees-Red Sox predictions

By Post Staff Report October 5, 2018 | 5:25am

 

The Post’s experts predict the winner of this upcoming Yankees-Red Sox ALDS:

 

Ken Davidoff: Yankees in 4

 

Maybe the last two months have been a long con by Chris Sale and the Red Sox to lull the Yankees into a Game 1 slumber. The bet here is no, that Sale is experiencing his standard second-half drop-off, only worse. The Yankees, riding high after securing home-field advantage for the wild card, then capitalizing on it, are ready to go on a roll.

 

George A. King III: Red Sox in 5

 

Extra outs hurt in the regular season. They kill in October and the Yankees have problems at third base and behind the plate. Boston’s lineup is a little bit deeper than the Yankees’. The bullpen edge goes to the Yankees, but not enough to get them to the ALCS.

 

Dan Martin: Yankees in 5

 

If Chris Sale and David Price are on top of their games, the Yankees will be in trouble. But the disparity in the strengths of the two bullpens figures to play a huge role in the series — especially if Sale continues to have issues with his velocity. Neither team has handled the other’s star hitters, so expect to see Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and … Luke Voit put up some big numbers.

 

Joel Sherman: Red Sox in 5

 

In a battle of closely matched teams, the home-field advantage favors the Red Sox and so does their heady, aggressive ability to capitalize on mistakes, and the defense of Gary Sanchez, Voit and Miguel Andujar opens a scary door for the Yankees.

 

Mike Vaccaro: Yankees in 4

 

The teams battled across 162 games simply to earn the right to have one extra home game … and that could all vanish in a matter of hours. The Yankees’ mission is to split the first two games; if they do, good luck to Boston to try to figure out what the Twins, Guardians, Astros and A’s haven’t been able to the past two years: winning even one game in the Bronx.

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/05/the-posts-experts-offer-yankees-red-sox-predictions/

Edited October 5, 2018 by BillyWilliams

[bkzwhitestrican]

The Post’s experts offer Yankees-Red Sox predictions

By Post Staff Report October 5, 2018 | 5:25am

 

The Post’s experts predict the winner of this upcoming Yankees-Red Sox ALDS:

 

Ken Davidoff: Yankees in 4

 

Maybe the last two months have been a long con by Chris Sale and the Red Sox to lull the Yankees into a Game 1 slumber. The bet here is no, that Sale is experiencing his standard second-half drop-off, only worse. The Yankees, riding high after securing home-field advantage for the wild card, then capitalizing on it, are ready to go on a roll.

 

George A. King III: Red Sox in 5

 

Extra outs hurt in the regular season. They kill in October and the Yankees have problems at third base and behind the plate. Boston’s lineup is a little bit deeper than the Yankees’. The bullpen edge goes to the Yankees, but not enough to get them to the ALCS.

 

Dan Martin: Yankees in 5

 

If Chris Sale and David Price are on top of their games, the Yankees will be in trouble. But the disparity in the strengths of the two bullpens figures to play a huge role in the series — especially if Sale continues to have issues with his velocity. Neither team has handled the other’s star hitters, so expect to see Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and … Luke Voit put up some big numbers.

 

Joel Sherman: Red Sox in 5

 

In a battle of closely matched teams, the home-field advantage favors the Red Sox and so does their heady, aggressive ability to capitalize on mistakes, and the defense of Gary Sanchez, Voit and Miguel Andujar opens a scary door for the Yankees.

 

Mike Vaccaro: Yankees in 4

 

The teams battled across 162 games simply to earn the right to have one extra home game … and that could all vanish in a matter of hours. The Yankees’ mission is to split the first two games; if they do, good luck to Boston to try to figure out what the Twins, Guardians, Astros and A’s haven’t been able to the past two years: winning even one game in the Bronx.

 

https://nypost.com/2018/10/05/the-posts-experts-offer-yankees-red-sox-predictions/

 

I have to disagree with the one guy who says Boston's lineup is deeper than the Yankees. The Sox have a very top heavy lineup. Their top 4 is definitely better than our top 4 (Betts/JD/Beni/Bog - total 3.822 OPS vs Judge/Stanton/Hicks/Didi - total 3.434 OPS) but the remainder of their lineup is pretty questionable. The only other batter in their lineup over .800 OPS is Pearce and he's a platoon batter who mostly faces LHP, whereas Gleyber/Andujar/Voit/McCutchen are all .800+ OPS hitters.

[BillyWilliams]

I have to disagree with the one guy who says Boston's lineup is deeper than the Yankees. The Sox have a very top heavy lineup. Their top 4 is definitely better than our top 4 (Betts/JD/Beni/Bog - total 3.822 OPS vs Judge/Stanton/Hicks/Didi - total 3.434 OPS) but the remainder of their lineup is pretty questionable. The only other batter in their lineup over .800 OPS is Pearce and he's a platoon batter who mostly faces LHP, whereas Gleyber/Andujar/Voit/McCutchen are all .800+ OPS hitters.

 

Yeah, I thought that myself

[moonslav59]

I have to disagree with the one guy who says Boston's lineup is deeper than the Yankees. The Sox have a very top heavy lineup. Their top 4 is definitely better than our top 4 (Betts/JD/Beni/Bog - total 3.822 OPS vs Judge/Stanton/Hicks/Didi - total 3.434 OPS) but the remainder of their lineup is pretty questionable. The only other batter in their lineup over .800 OPS is Pearce and he's a platoon batter who mostly faces LHP, whereas Gleyber/Andujar/Voit/McCutchen are all .800+ OPS hitters.

 

OPS by Slot

BOS NYY

1. 1.028 > .786

2. .759

3. .871 > .719

4. .968 > .957

5. .796 > .775

6. .684

7. .667

8. .607

9. .704 > .702

 

Big differences in RED

 

[bkzwhitestrican]

OPS by Slot

BOS NYY

1. 1.028 > .786

2. .759

3. .871 > .719

4. .968 > .957

5. .796 > .775

6. .684

7. .667

8. .607

9. .704 > .702

 

Big differences in RED

 

 

Why use lineup slot? These numbers include players who are no longer on both teams' rosters. A player by player comparison makes the most sense and would give the most accurate measure. Unless that's not what you want.

[BillyWilliams]

Why use lineup slot? These numbers include players who are no longer on both teams' rosters. A player by player comparison makes the most sense and would give the most accurate measure. Unless that's not what you want.

 

True, and it also doesn't accurately reflect Voight at this stage.

[bkzwhitestrican]

I don't watch many Sox games so I don't know if the batting order is accurate, but:

 

Betts (1.078 OPS) vs McCutchen (0.892 w/ Yankees, 0.792 overall)

Benintendo (0.830) vs Judge (0.919)

Martinez (1.031) vs Hicks (0.833)

Bogaerts (0.883) vs Stanton (0.852)

Pearce (0.901) vs Voit (1.069 overall)

Devers (0.731) vs Didi (0.829)

Nunez (0.677) vs Andujar (0.855)

JBJ (0.717) vs Sanchez (0.697)

Vazquez (0.540) vs Torres (0.820)

 

Boston Total OPS: 7.388 (0.821 avg OPS)

NYY Total OPS: 7.666 (0.852 avg OPS)

[Slasher9]

give me the OPS head to head. that might actually mean something.

i dont give a f*** what judge did vs the blue jays or what betts did vs the orioles.....

[Carpin]

give me the OPS head to head. that might actually mean something.

i dont give a f*** what judge did vs the blue jays or what betts did vs the orioles.....

 

Very good point, it matters only against each other

[moonslav59]

I don't watch many Sox games so I don't know if the batting order is accurate, but:

 

Betts (1.078 OPS) vs McCutchen (0.892 w/ Yankees, 0.792 overall)

Benintendo (0.830) vs Judge (0.919)

Martinez (1.031) vs Hicks (0.833)

Bogaerts (0.883) vs Stanton (0.852)

Pearce (0.901) vs Voit (1.069 overall)

Devers (0.731) vs Didi (0.829)

Nunez (0.677) vs Andujar (0.855)

JBJ (0.717) vs Sanchez (0.697)

Vazquez (0.540) vs Torres (0.820)

 

Boston Total OPS: 7.388 (0.821 avg OPS)

NYY Total OPS: 7.666 (0.852 avg OPS)

 

Didi is playing hurt, Voit's sample size is too tiny.

[moonslav59]

Very good point, it matters only against each other

 

Tiny sample sizes for the most part- small otherwise.

 

1.448 Pearce (29 PAs w Sox)

1.245 Betts (79)

.971 Beni (74)

.964 JDM (79)

.761 JBJ (59)

.755 Leon (33)

.729 Moreland (50)

.690 Nunez (64)

.661 Kinsler (28 w Sox)

.515 Devers (52 but killed 'em last year)

.346 Vaz

 

1.462 Voit (24)

1.123 Stanton (78)

1.096 Judge (61)

1.015 Sanchez (44)

.889 Hicks (67)

.879 McCutchen (24)

.751 Walker (31)

.733 Torres

.687 Andujar (72)

.632 Gardner (59)

.512 Didi (75)

 

 

[Kimmi]

Throw all that stuff about which line up is better, etc. out the window for the playoffs. Any player can OPS 1.200 for a few games, and any player can go 0 for 15. At any rate, I think the teams are pretty evenly matched overall. It's anybody's game and series.

[BillyWilliams]

Who has edge? Yanks-Sox position by position

 

 

By Mike Petriello MLB.com @mike_petriello

Oct. 4th, 2018

 

"We're excited," Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge said looking ahead to the American League Division Series against the Red Sox. "They won the division. It's going to be a fun series. This place [Yankee Stadium] is going to be rocking, Fenway is going to be rocking. Everyone is excited for it."

 

He's not wrong. Though it might seem like the Yankees and Red Sox swallow up so much of baseball's national attention, it's been 14 years since they last faced one another in the playoffs, dating back to the legendary 2004 ALCS. They're each 100-win teams; they're each loaded with studs. So who has the edge? Let's go through each position.

 

Catcher

 

Say whatever you want about Gary Sanchez, about his .186 batting average, about his occasional issues with passed balls. His struggles have been well-documented and they're of real concern to the Yankees. That said, we saw what he's capable of power-wise in 2016 and '17, and even this year, he's slugging .518 against lefties, which matters when the Red Sox will start Chris Sale and David Price in the first two games. For all of the credit that Sandy Leon (.177/.232/.279) gets for his defense, he was very literally the weakest hitter in baseball this year. Christian Vazquez (.207/.257/.283) was the second-weakest. When your catchers hit like pitchers, you don't get the edge.

 

Big advantage: Yankees

 

First Base

 

Mitch Moreland had a fantastic first half (.278/.353/.500) followed by a dreadful second half (.191/277/.322); the end result was his third roughly average season in a row. It's fair to note that there's a platoon situation here, because Moreland will yield to Steve Pearce against lefties, and he's hit a strong .259/.352/.503 against southpaws the last two years. Of course, the Yankees have Luke Voit (.333/.405/.689 with New York), who just keeps on hitting. He won't keep up a 50-homer pace forever, but he doesn't need to. He just needs to do this for a few more days.

 

Advantage: Yankees

 

Since Eduardo Nunez hasn't played second base for Boston in nearly two months, let's look at the most likely starting second basemen in this series.

 

Ian Kinsler (.242/.294/.311, 64 OPS+ with Boston)

Gleyber Torres (.271/.340/.480, 118 OPS+)

 

It's possible you'll see a Neil Walker here or a Brock Holt there, and it's true that Torres wasn't as good in the second half as he was in the first half, but the 36-year-old Kinsler is having his second consecutive below-average hitting season, though his defense is still solid.

 

Advantage: Yankees

 

Shortstop

 

There's no wrong answer here, honestly, because Didi Gregorius (.268/.335/.494) and Xander Bogaerts (.288/.360/.522) each had strong hitting seasons. While Gregorius is probably a somewhat better defender, Bogaerts' hitting line gives him the edge, as does the lingering uncertainty over Gregorius' right wrist injury. What's perhaps more important here is that the Red Sox have the home field advantage, because Gregorius (.299/.372/.572 at home, .233/.292/.408 road) is a completely different player away from the Bronx.

 

Small advantage: Red Sox

 

Third Base

 

While Miguel Andujar (.297/.328/.527, with 27 homers) is likely to finish in the top two in the Rookie of the Year ballot, he's actually nearly two years older than Boston's Rafael Devers (.240/.298/.433). He also outhit both Devers and Nunez (.265/.289/.388) by a considerable margin, giving this edge easily to the Yankees. Due to Andujar's poor defense, expect Aaron Boone to often spot in Adeiny Hechavarria, as he did to great effect in the Wild Card Game.

 

Advantage: Yankees

 

Left Field

 

Andrew McCutchen (.255/.368/.424 this year, and .253/.421/.471 with New York) has been a nice addition to the Yankee lineup, and just in time, because Brett Gardner's .236/.322/.368 was a considerable disappointment. On the Boston side, Andrew Benintendi (.290/.366/.465 with 16 homers and 21 steals) added nearly 40 points of slugging over his 2017 season. There's not much of a difference here, but it's worth noting something interesting about McCutchen: He's made one career start in front of the Green Monster. It came last weekend.

 

Small advantage: Red Sox

 

Center Field

 

On the surface, the edge for Aaron Hicks here is a large one. He hit .248/.366/.467, while Jackie Bradley Jr. hit just .234/.314/.403. As usual, ignore the batting average there and focus on the large gaps in on-base and slugging. Easy, right? But it's not as simple as that, because Bradley is a better defender, and thanks to his elite hard-hit skills (his 50.2 percent hard-hit rate was similar to Shohei Ohtani or Ryan Braun), he turned it on in the second half: .269/.340/.487. Hicks gets the edge because he was this good all year, but it's closer than you think.

 

Small advantage: Yankees

 

Right Field

 

Judge's 116.1 mph home run in the Wild Card Game didn't just give the Yankees a 2-0 lead, it also made a powerful case that his injured right wrist won't slow him down. (It was his hardest-hit ball since June.) When healthy, he's clearly a game changer. And yet: He's not Mookie Betts. Not only is Betts (.346/.438/.640) a much better fielder and a far more dangerous baserunner, he even out-slugged Judge (.278/.392/.528) by 112 points. Judge is a star. Betts is the star other stars want to be.

 

Advantage: Red Sox

 

Designated Hitter

 

Among the many, many accolades that J.D. Martinez earned in his first season in Boston, perhaps none stands out more than this: The Yankees added Giancarlo Stanton (.266/.343/.509, with 38 home runs), and he was very good, and he still doesn't even come close to what Martinez (.330./402/.629, 43 home runs) did. When even the great Stanton is a clear second place, you know you're doing something right. Martinez may be the most dangerous pure hitter in the game.

 

Advantage: Red Sox

 

Starting Pitchers

 

If we knew which Sale we were going to see, that might tip the edge to Boston here, because full-strength Sale is the best starter on either side. But we don't really know what Sale we're going to get, do we? He hasn't thrown six-plus innings in a game since July; his velocity in his final regular-season start was a mere 90.1 mph. Throw in the angst over whether Price can conquer his Yankees issues, and the Yankees, with Luis Severino, J.A. Happ, and Masahiro Tanaka earn the slight advantage. This one could turn quickly, however.

 

Advantage: Yankees

 

Relief Pitchers

 

If there's any spot on these rosters where one side has an edge large enough to potentially single-handedly win or lose the series, it's here. Let's compare the likely top six relievers for each side, with stats accrued only for these teams.

 

For the Yankees, that's Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Chad Green, David Robertson, and Jonathan Holder. They had a 2.83 ERA, a 2.80 FIP, and struck out 33 percent of hitters they faced, walking nine percent.

 

For the Red Sox, that's probably Craig Kimbrel, Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Brandon Workman, Steven Wright, and Joe Kelly. They had a 3.19 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, and struck out 28 percent of hitters they faced, walking 11 percent.

 

It's not that the Boston bullpen is bad, necessarily. It's that the Yankee relievers are fantastic.

 

Big Advantage: Yankees

 

Prediction

 

The Red Sox won eight more games than the Yankees did this year, but the weakness at the bottom of the lineup and in the bullpen, plus questions about Sale's health, tips this one to the Bronx Bombers. Yankees in five.

 

Yankees Red Sox ALDS positional breakdown

WWW.MLB.COM

---

"We're excited," Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge said looking ahead to the American League Division Series against the Red Sox. "They won the division. It's going to be a fun series. This place Yankee Stadium] is going to be rocking, Fenway is going to be rocking. Everyone is excited for it."He's

[Slasher9]

What a f***ing troll you are babe. Where you at..?

Well....let’s see....if the Yankees don’t score in the 9th you will be mia. But something tells me if kimbrel gives it up and Yankees win you’ll be posting here within 5 minutes of the final out....

Weak

[redsoxrules]

Yeah there's been zero posts tonight from a yankee fan. But they'll be the first to post as soon as the Yankees do something in this series.

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s because I’m at a reunion this weekend and I was far too intoxicated to pick up my phone. Sale had a short outing, but his stuff was good enough. Not vintage, but better than his final start vs the O’s. Happ s*** his pants. Our O made it difficult, but couldn’t finish because Stanton can’t even make f***ing contact with the sacks packed. We need one at your house. Hopefully it’s tonight

[BillyWilliams]

https://nypost.com/2018/10/08/why-the-yankees-are-now-favored-to-win-red-sox-series/

 

 

Why the Yankees are now favored to win Red Sox series

By Jeff Fogle, VSiN October 8, 2018 | 1:14am

 

After splitting the first two games of their American League Divisional Series with the Red Sox, the Yankees are now market favorites to advance to the next round. First adjustments offshore moved the Yanks to -135 to win the series (Boston +115), which resumes Monday night at the Stadium.

 

Early lines for Game 3 favored New York’s Luis Severino at -170 over Rick Porcello (+155). When the Red Sox announced Sunday afternoon Nathan Eovaldi would get the start instead, global sports books largely stood pat.

 

Porcello and Eovaldi are power-rated at the same level.

 

Why is New York now favored to advance past a team that won 108 games in the regular season? Yanks should win Game 3 slightly more than 60 percent of the time based on Severino’s price.

 

And, thanks to a “service break” at Fenway, they now have home-field advantage in a “best-of-three” mini-series.

 

Also in the mix … were the series to return to Boston, Yankee piñata David Price might be in line to get more innings. Price couldn’t even finish two full innings Saturday night in Boston’s loss.

 

 

 

Focusing on the crux of creating and preventing scoring opportunities shows how impressively the Yankees performed in the first week of the postseason. Here’s a quick read on “total bases plus walks” for each game.

Total bases plus walks

 

Wild Card: NYY 21, OAK 13

ALDS Game 1: NYY 18, BOS 15

ALDS Game 2: NYY 24, BOS 12

 

The coin of the realm for baseball production has yielded a jackpot so far. And, that’s against high-quality competition — with two games coming on the road, one of which was started by hard-throwing ace Chris Sale.

 

Though betting markets rate Eovaldi and Porcello similarly, Yankees sluggers might have preferred to see Porcello. He’s become more home-run prone later in his career. Though he improved from an astronomic 38 dingers allowed in 2017 (when a change in ball construction helped simulate a “juiced ball” scenario), the 27 he allowed in 2018 were the second-worst total of his career (ninth worst in the AL this past season).

 

Porcello also has a poor career ERA of 5.56 at Yankee Stadium, with a vulnerable WHIP of 1.42. Eovaldi’s been much more successful in The Bronx, with a career ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.25.

 

Note that the other ALDS, Houston versus Cleveland, also resumes Monday. Houston won the first two games at home by scores of 7-2 and 3-1, with dominant “total bases plus walks” advantages of 27-5 and 17-8. In a must-win spot, Cleveland with Mike Clevinger is -118 over Houston with Dallas Keuchel (+108) in Game 3.

[BillyWilliams]

cora panicking??

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24932922/red-sox-swap-four-batters-game-3-aaron-hicks-not-starting-yankees

[Carpin]

I don't think he's "panicking", he sees an issue and is moving things around trying to fix his batting issues.

 

Boston lineup between the 5-9 positions was terrible the first two games he needs to do something.

[bkzwhitestrican]

cora panicking??

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24932922/red-sox-swap-four-batters-game-3-aaron-hicks-not-starting-yankees

 

Sacrificing defense for offense. Plus adding two lefties into the lineup at Yankee Stadium. I wouldn't call it a panic move, more like Nunez, Leon and Kinsler (to a lesser extent) have been sucking and they want to see if they can find a hot bat. Might have to do the same with Stanton if he keeps killing our rallies.

[jacksonianmarch]

Down 2-1 at home, CC is the right guy to have here. He’s done well vs Boston and has done well in the playoffs. Instead of getting the shot at closing out the series, we now face an elimination game. This team has shown to be very hard to kill over the past two seasons. Gotta try to push this to Boston

[bkzwhitestrican]

Let's see if Boone's strategy of "forfeit tonight's game let them use up all of their offense" pays off

[jacksonianmarch]

Clearly it’s all hands on deck. The only guy I hold is Tanaka. If CC is losing it early, go to the guys who got you here. If you need a long stretch, go to Happ. Gotta take this one and plan for an epic game 5

[Station 13]

Hai guys what's going on in here?

[bkzwhitestrican]

You win. Congrats. Go Stros.

[Slasher9]

End thread /

[BillyWilliams]

https://www.12up.com/posts/6197157-video-fans-point-out-red-sox-pitchers-have-been-cheating-with-pine-tar-all-postseason-long