9/8 vs Houston

[Kimmi]

Maybe Oakland still wins the division lol?

 

In actuality I want to play these guys and beat them in the playoffs.

 

There is a very good possibility that we'll get that chance.

 

I'm just hoping that Oakland can pass the Yankees for HFA in the wildcard game, just to force the Yankees to make that west coast trip.

[Maxbialystock]

We are now in the 3d game of a nice 9 game home stretch. Up next the Jays and Mets. Then six on the road vs. Cleveland and the Yankees, a further test of the Sox readiness for the postseason.

[Kimmi]

If Porcello loses to Keuchel tonight, the "clowns" will have taken 5 of 6 this year. They don't have the best pitching staff in MLB--they have the best pitching staff in MLB by a wide margin. They certainly have JDM's number: his OPS for the season is 1.036, but against the Astros it's .589. Their hitting/scoring is 4th best in MLB, which is enough to score off our pitching staff almost at will. And their defense looks pretty good to me. What about you?

 

But, really, it's that darn pitching. I'm certainly no expert, but it seems to me that almost everyone the send to the mound can throw hard (95 mph and above), can hit their spots, and have some pretty good breaking stuff. I like that they can get strikes low in the zone or even right below it, but also throw high in the zone. That our hitting managed to get three runs each in the first two games is actually pretty commendable. Especially last night when they clearly had JDM's number, including that weak GIDP to end the game with men on 1st and 3d in the bottom of the 9th. JDM only leads MLB in rbi's.

 

Our Sox clearly have a pitching problem--both the rotation and the bullpen. And it is not helped by the defense. Friday our great right fielder Mookie, playing on his home field, caught a middling fly near the line and threw home when there was no play (it was a good throw, by the way), which allowed runners on 1st and 2d to advance to 2d and 3d. Today JBJ had a tough by catchable ball in deep CF that went off his glove because he misjudged and which I believe the Houston CF would have caught with ease. Nunez has good hands and a good arm at 3B, but no range. Devers range is better, but his error rate remains very high. Bogaerts is steady eddy at SS, but with not much range even though he works very hard on his defense. Kinsler is solid at 2b and Moreland has clearly regressed at 1B. I think our defensive catching overall is at least average and certainly above average when Leon is behind the plate.

 

The good news, and I mean this, is that yesterday and Friday are not, repeat, not the actual postseason. I'm worried, but by no means ready to throw in the towel. As Kimmi and others have pointed out, the bullpen, the rotation, and the catchers are being evaluated and re-evaluated. I personally hope Leon is the primary catcher in the postseason. I see Sale and Price as obvious first two starters assuming both are healthy. After them I honestly see Porcello, ERod, and yes, Wright in the mix for the 3d and 4th spots.

 

I'm also wondering about last night and what we saw vs. the Rays. What, for example, would have happened if Workman or almost any other righty reliever had started the game and Cora then brought in ERod in the 1st, 2d, or even the 3d inning? The Astros started 8 righty bats, and they hit ERod hard, but maybe Workman could have bought some outs for ERod. Also, it bothered me that with all those righty bats ERod, who has a good changeup, didn't throw his first changeup until the Astros had scored 2 runs in the 2d inning. To me this is all grist for the mill.

 

The Astros are no pushovers. That said, neither are the Red Sox. Despite the outcome, both games were very winnable. We had base runners all over the place. They made some great defensive plays against us. It happens.

 

Even though Eovaldi has not pitched well recently, I think a case can be made to have him starting a game against both the Astros and the Yankees over the lefty ERod.

[Maxbialystock]

Actually, it would be 5 of 7.

 

You're absolutely right. How could I forget we split in Houston? All the more reason to worry--the Sox seem to be regressing. However, if the Sox pull out a win with Porcello tonight, the season goes 4-3 Houston, which takes a little of the sting out.

[Kimmi]

You're absolutely right. How could I forget we split in Houston? All the more reason to worry--the Sox seem to be regressing. However, if the Sox pull out a win with Porcello tonight, the season goes 4-3 Houston, which takes a little of the sting out.

 

You may also recall that we lost the first two in Houston, after which the sky was falling. But then our boys went on to win the final two games of the series, which was no small feat.

[OH FOY]

You're absolutely right. How could I forget we split in Houston? All the more reason to worry--the Sox seem to be regressing. However, if the Sox pull out a win with Porcello tonight, the season goes 4-3 Houston, which takes a little of the sting out.

 

Your scared of Houston then? I'm not. Kimi is right a couple of lucky breaks this series could easily be 2-0 Sox. Baseball it happens. They haven't dominated us like last year, in these games.

Edited September 9, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Maxbialystock]

The Astros are no pushovers. That said, neither are the Red Sox. Despite the outcome, both games were very winnable. We had base runners all over the place. They made some great defensive plays against us. It happens.

 

Even though Eovaldi has not pitched well recently, I think a case can be made to have him starting a game against both the Astros and the Yankees over the lefty ERod.

 

I like your optimism and always have. But this time I just think the Astros overall simply look like a better team: better rotation, better bullpen, better defense, and an offense better than ours, but only because their hitters get to go against our pitching and our hitters have to go against their pitching. Our better hitting is negated by their superior pitching which is helped by a better defense than we have.

 

I look at those two games as harbingers. In the first, Price had a great start, but their pitching was good enough to keep them in the game until their hitting clobbered our bullpen, including Brasier who has the lowest ERA. In the second, they got the early lead, and that was the ballgame. Yes, in game two we did have lots of baserunners, but, I say again, they dominated our best rbi man, JD Martinez, who was hitless and left 5 on base, including 2 with a game-ending GIDP. To me that's good pitching. Also, they made some big defensive plays and we made some so-so (Betts and JBJ) and one bad one (Devers, but, luckily, Poyner kept the Astros from scoring).

[OH FOY]

Last year in Final Series at home they beat the snot out of us, 3 out of 4. Then whooped us in 4 games in ALDS. They haven't done that this year.

[OH FOY]

Too bad JD didn't send one out of Park in the 9th.

[Kimmi]

I like your optimism and always have. But this time I just think the Astros overall simply look like a better team: better rotation, better bullpen, better defense, and an offense better than ours, but only because their hitters get to go against our pitching and our hitters have to go against their pitching. Our better hitting is negated by their superior pitching which is helped by a better defense than we have.

 

I look at those two games as harbingers. In the first, Price had a great start, but their pitching was good enough to keep them in the game until their hitting clobbered our bullpen, including Brasier who has the lowest ERA. In the second, they got the early lead, and that was the ballgame. Yes, in game two we did have lots of baserunners, but, I say again, they dominated our best rbi man, JD Martinez, who was hitless and left 5 on base, including 2 with a game-ending GIDP. To me that's good pitching. Also, they made some big defensive plays and we made some so-so (Betts and JBJ) and one bad one (Devers, but, luckily, Poyner kept the Astros from scoring).

 

I agree that Houston is the better overall team, but only by a slight amount. They outhit us 10-8 in the first game, and 11-10 in the second game. That's not a big difference. They probably won more due to the timing of their hits than anything else, or more accurately, the lack of timely hits for the Red Sox. That is another one of those random things.

 

Don't sell our team short.

[Kimmi]

Too bad JD didn't send one out of Park in the 9th.

 

Yup. That one hit would have changed the entire complexion of this series.

 

Bogaerts hit a couple of long balls in the series, but both were solo shots. Imagine if he would have hit one of those with the bases loaded instead of with the bases empty.

[iortiz]

Yup. That one hit would have changed the entire complexion of this series.

 

Bogaerts hit a couple of long balls in the series, but both were solo shots. Imagine if he would have hit one of those with the bases loaded instead of with the bases empty.

 

Is it just me or JD hits better at the 4th slot? I’d like to see the numbers. I’d put XB batting ahead JD followed by Pearce or Kinsler.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it just me or JD hits better at the 4th slot? I’d like to see the numbers. I’d put XB batting ahead JD followed by Pearce or Kinsler.

 

You're right.

 

JD hitting 3rd 269 PA 318/383/594 - 977 OPS

JD hitting 4th 316 PA 344/421/667 - 1088 OPS

[Kimmi]

Is it just me or JD hits better at the 4th slot? I’d like to see the numbers. I’d put XB batting ahead JD followed by Pearce or Kinsler.

 

Batting 3rd: .318/.383/.594/.977

 

Batting 4th: .344/.421/.667/1.088

 

I am a firm believer that JD should be batting 4th, or more to the point, JD should NOT be batting 3rd, not because of his numbers, but because his potential to create runs is lessened from the #3 hole.

[iortiz]

You're right.

 

JD hitting 3rd 269 PA 318/383/594 - 977 OPS

JD hitting 4th 316 PA 344/421/667 - 1088 OPS

Thanks Bell, seems like my memory still works LOL!

[iortiz]

Batting 3rd: .318/.383/.594/.977

 

Batting 4th: .344/.421/.667/1.088

 

I am a firm believer that JD should be batting 4th, or more to the point, JD should NOT be batting 3rd, not because of his numbers, but because his potential to create runs is lessened from the #3 hole.

Yeah!

 

Plus, Betts and Benny have great OBP.

 

i.e. he most likely will have an AB batting behind them anyways and will likely produce more runs as you said.

 

Said that, I’d give XB the 3rd slot.

 

Betts-Benny-XB-JD

[iortiz]

Sounds crazy, but these little details could make the difference in POs.

[oldtimer]

Yeah!

 

Plus, Betts and Benny have great OBP.

 

i.e. he most likely will have an AB batting behind them anyways and will likely produce more runs as you said.

 

Said that, I’d give XB the 3rd slot.

 

Betts-Benny-XB-JD

 

Bogaerts is hot right now but JDM will get back to his outstanding performance level. He is still a major threat either in 3rd or 4th in the oder.

[Maxbialystock]

Batting 3rd: .318/.383/.594/.977

 

Batting 4th: .344/.421/.667/1.088

 

I am a firm believer that JD should be batting 4th, or more to the point, JD should NOT be batting 3rd, not because of his numbers, but because his potential to create runs is lessened from the #3 hole.

 

Those are both still very good OPS's. JDM's problem against the Astros has absolutely nothing to do with where he hits, but with how well they pitch to him.

The comment about "too bad JDM didn't hit a dinger with 2 on in the 9th" is just play laughable. He got a grounder single in the first game and nuttin good in the 2d because the Astros know how to pitch to him. Hence the putrid GIDP that actually happened in the 9th yesterday.

 

Despite all my whining, I agree with Kimmi's basic point: the Astros are better, but not a lot better. If Chris Sale is healthy, I think we have a very good one-two punch in him and Price. I also don't think the bullpen is as bad as they looked Friday. On top of that, I really like this team and that means everyone on it, even the ones I gripe about.

Edited September 9, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

JD should bat 4th, because it's the best place to put him, not because his OPS is slightly better there.

 

On the Astros, they remind me of us last year. Many players are having a down year at the same time. One could view it like they are bound to bounce back just in time for the playoffs, but I'm not so sure.

 

2017>2018 (in order or most PAs in 2017)

 

.957> .830 Altuve

.889> .781 Springer

.827

.817> .720 Gurriel

.847> .692 Reddick

.907> .733 Gonzalez

.941> .741 Correo

.759> .611 McCann

.767> .764 Gattis

.815> .656 Marisnick

.853

 

[iortiz]

JD should bat 4th, because it's the best place to put him, not because his OPS is slightly better there.

 

On the Astros, they remind me of us last year. Many players are having a down year at the same time. One could view it like they are bound to bounce back just in time for the playoffs, but I'm not so sure.

 

2017>2018 (in order or most PAs in 2017)

 

.957> .830 Altuve

.889> .781 Springer

.827

.817> .720 Gurriel

.847> .692 Reddick

.907> .733 Gonzalez

.941> .741 Correo

.759> .611 McCann

.767> .764 Gattis

.815> .656 Marisnick

.853

 

 

I bet the Sox look better this year than last.

[moonslav59]

I bet the Sox look better this year than last.

 

Of course, but the Astros declines looks like our declines from 2016 to 2017.

 

Here's our 2017 to 2018 mostly inclines...

 

.803

.776

.746

.769= .767Moreland

.750

.726> .705 JBJ

.760> .664 Pedey to Nunez/.701 Holt

.735> .558 Vaz

.644> .549 Leon

.819> .712 Devers

.892> .664 Nunez

.548

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2018 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

Of course, but the Astros declines looks like our declines from 2016 to 2017.

 

Here's our 2017 to 2018 mostly inclines...

 

.803

.776

.746

.769= .767Moreland

.750> 1.036 HRam to JD

.726> .705 JBJ

.760> .664 Pedey to Nunez/.701 Holt

.735> .558 Vaz

.644> .549 Leon

.819> .712 Devers

.892> .664 Nunez

.548

 

 

 

 

 

As I said, I truly believe this is our year.

[moonslav59]

As I said, I truly believe this is our year.

 

It's weird, but there are actually more Sox players declining from last year:

6

Moreland- just barely

JBJ- by a little

Vaz

Leon

Devers

Nunez

 

On the rise:

4

Betts

Bogey

Beni

Holt

(These are huge increases, though)

 

And, the replacement of HRam & Young with JD has been priceless.