Wright gets a start this Tuesday

[moonslav59]

I once did a study on how our pitchers did the day after Wake pitched. I have since lost the data, but it showed our staff ERA was about 0.50 better.

 

Knuckle ballers mess up the opponents timing. Their value stretches beyond their start.

 

Wright had a record of success for many years in a row before his injury & suspension. We should not view him doing well as a fluke.

 

In 2016, Wright started the season with a 2.18 ERA over his first 15 starts.

 

Only 1 start saw him let up over 3 ERs (5).

 

In 12 of his first 14 starts, he let up 2 or less runs. The guy is capable of putting up good numbers for more than a month or so.

 

Before 2016:

 

3.95 ERA MLB in 107 IP (203-2015)

 

3.81 ERA in AAA 2015 (52 IP)

3.42 ERA in AA/AAA 2014 (100 IP)

3.46 ERA in AAA 2013 (135 IP)

3.41 ERA in winter ball '12-'13 (29 IP)

3.49 ERA in AA/AAA 2012 in 142 IP

 

This is the model of consistency.

 

The injury messed him up. The suspension slowed his return.

 

He's back.

 

 

[Spudboy]

How may athletes would have sold their soul for the 50 plate appearances Swihart has done nothing with this year?

 

Yeah. 50 PA in two months is such a good way to maintain a high level of performance at the plate.

[mvp 78]

The old time knuckler experts all agree that being able to vary the velocity of the pitch is a huge advantage.

 

The velocity range for Wright's knuckleball is said to be 67-83 mph, I believe. I may be wrong. it could be 57 mph. Either way that is f***ed up s*** right there. How does a batter get his timing down?

 

Wake had only about a 7 mph range from what I recall.

 

Pom is now on the DL. If Wright keeps throwing this way in subsequent starts it will be difficult to remove him from the rotation.

 

Wake's slow knuckleball was about 59 with his fast being about 68. Definitely less of a range than Wright. Wright's range in speed is more like early RA Dickey who could throw it high 60's to low 80's.

[Spudboy]

Wake's slow knuckleball was about 59 with his fast being about 68. Definitely less of a range than Wright. Wright's range in speed is more like early RA Dickey who could throw it high 60's to low 80's.

 

Yeah I am a little vague on the details. I saw this excellent documentary on Knuckleballers back about the time Dickey was a Met but before he peaked with them.

 

There is a fraternity of knucklers. Niekro was on the documentary as I recall. They talked about different styles and approaches of Wake and Dickey.

 

It's a wicked cool documentary if you can find it.

[moonslav59]

Wake's slow knuckleball was about 59 with his fast being about 68. Definitely less of a range than Wright. Wright's range in speed is more like early RA Dickey who could throw it high 60's to low 80's.

 

From fangraphs...

 

Wake:

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=219&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=271&legend=1,2&split=base&time=daily&start=2002&end=2011&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=KN&ymin=&ymax=

 

Wright

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=8185&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=271&legend=1,2&split=base&time=daily&start=2013&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=KN&ymin=&ymax=

[mvp 78]

Yeah I am a little vague on the details. I saw this excellent documentary on Knuckleballers back about the time Dickey was a Met but before he peaked with them.

 

There is a fraternity of knucklers. Niekro was on the documentary as I recall. They talked about different styles and approaches of Wake and Dickey.

 

It's a wicked cool documentary if you can find it.

 

http://putlockerxvid.com/play.php?movie=tt2343601

[Maxbialystock]

Yeah. 50 PA in two months is such a good way to maintain a high level of performance at the plate.

 

Don't forget what a great catcher Swihart is as well. Hard to believe Cora keeps using Leon and Vazquez who are both too short, too slow, too whatever to be MLB quality. Swihart is also a great DH, corner outfielder and corner infielder. He can do it all. 50 lousy plate appearances is just criminal.

[cp176]

Don't forget what a great catcher Swihart is as well. Hard to believe Cora keeps using Leon and Vazquez who are both too short, too slow, too whatever to be MLB quality. Swihart is also a great DH, corner outfielder and corner infielder. He can do it all. 50 lousy plate appearances is just criminal.

 

Ok Max - How many posters here are actually crying over Swihart not being our starting catcher? 1 maybe 2 you think. You really are starting to make this sound as though anyone who supports Swihart must think that he should be a starter for this team. I don't get the sense that that is the case at all. Some of us would just like to see this kid get a little more of a chance than he already has.

[moonslav59]

Don't forget what a great catcher Swihart is as well. Hard to believe Cora keeps using Leon and Vazquez who are both too short, too slow, too whatever to be MLB quality. Swihart is also a great DH, corner outfielder and corner infielder. He can do it all. 50 lousy plate appearances is just criminal.

 

It's hard to imagine anyone, let alone a good manager, would bench one of our hottest hitters (Leon) who also is a great defensive catcher.

[Dojji]

You may very well be right about that. In fact, I think the Sox are being unfair to him keeping him in limbo the way they are. Unfortunately for Swihart, Dan Butler isn't the answer for the Sox and there's nobody else who's the least bit qualified to be a ML catcher in the minors at the moment.

 

I actually disagree with this. Dan Butler's appeared in Boston a couple times and looked like a competent third catcher. He's no Jason Varitek, but he's a large cut above the Corky Miller/Kevin Cash/Ken Huckaby types that you see getting forced into the lineup when starting catchers get hurt. If we had a big injury to Vazquez or Leon, I'd be pretty comfortable with Butler being the backup catcher for several weeks. He's competent on both sides of the ball, and a great organizational guy.

 

The fact is that Swihart is unnecessary. Since we have an established tandem, and for that matter, a pretty decent replacement guy in AAA, and none of those guys are Swihart, I think he's gone by the deadline. We simply can't give him the playing time he needs, and afford all the mistakes he'd make, to develop him. Let some basement dweller team turn him into the star he'll never be here, and we'll take a relief pitcher or B-prospect in exchange. It's the corner we've painted ourselves into with the guy.

[Dojji]

Oscar Hernandez

 

Kind of like what I'm seeing out of Jhon Nunez too. He's a longshot, but that's my favorite kind, and he's starting to make himself interesting.

[Dojji]

 

The velocity range for Wright's knuckleball is said to be 67-83 mph, I believe. I may be wrong. it could be 57 mph. Either way that is f***ed up s*** right there. How does a batter get his timing down?

 

And he backs that up with a fastball he can get into the mid to upper 80s too, which is something that Wakefield never had.

 

A bit of luck here, and Wright could be a very productive SP for us for a very long time.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Dojji

[S5Dewey]

I actually disagree with this. Dan Butler's appeared in Boston a couple times and looked like a competent third catcher. He's no Jason Varitek, but he's a large cut above the Corky Miller/Kevin Cash/Ken Huckaby types that you see getting forced into the lineup when starting catchers get hurt. If we had a big injury to Vazquez or Leon, I'd be pretty comfortable with Butler being the backup catcher for several weeks. He's competent on both sides of the ball, and a great organizational guy.

 

The fact is that Swihart is unnecessary. Since we have an established tandem, and for that matter, a pretty decent replacement guy in AAA, and none of those guys are Swihart, I think he's gone by the deadline. We simply can't give him the playing time he needs, and afford all the mistakes he'd make, to develop him. Let some basement dweller team turn him into the star he'll never be here, and we'll take a relief pitcher or B-prospect in exchange. It's the corner we've painted ourselves into with the guy.

 

Ya know... I don't even disagree with you on Dan Butler. Although I've only seen him in ST I didn't see anything that made me think he might be at least an emergency catcher. However, I'm deferring to the FO when I say he's not the answer. They must be seeing something negative that I'm not seeing.

[Spudboy]

Ya know... I don't even disagree with you on Dan Butler. Although I've only seen him in ST I didn't see anything that made me think he might be at least an emergency catcher. However, I'm deferring to the FO when I say he's not the answer. They must be seeing something negative that I'm not seeing.

 

Yeah like Butler cant hit.

[Dojji]

Yeah like Butler cant hit.

Butler has hit at lower levels, he has a chance to be a replacement level hitter in the majors. If the team didn't see a use for the guy at the major league level on an emergency basis he wouldn't be here

[Spudboy]

Butler has hit at lower levels, he has a chance to be a replacement level hitter in the majors. If the team didn't see a use for the guy at the major league level on an emergency basis he wouldn't be here

 

No s***.

 

Org depth. That's all.

[Spudboy]

Yeah 31 years old, 9 years of MiLB ball with a .211 BA.

 

Yeah, he's ready.

[Dojji]

Yeah 31 years old, 9 years of MiLB ball with a .211 BA.

 

Yeah, he's ready.

 

You guys are misunderstanding what I'm saying. Did I ever claim he was going to be a starter? What I said was Dan Butler would be a competent backup catcher if we had space for one. That is NOT a very high bar to meet. As a third catcher on the depth chart, to come up in emergencies and not stink up the joint, Butler could do that at least. With 3 healthy catchers on the big league roster i don't expect this to happen this year, but he's a good addition to the depth chart where he is and, as mentioned, a very solid organizational catcher.

[mvp 78]

You guys are misunderstanding what I'm saying. Did I ever claim he was going to be a starter? What I said was Dan Butler would be a competent backup catcher if we had space for one. That is NOT a very high bar to meet. As a third catcher on the depth chart, to come up in emergencies and not stink up the joint, Butler could do that at least. With 3 healthy catchers on the big league roster i don't expect this to happen this year, but he's a good addition to the depth chart where he is and, as mentioned, a very solid organizational catcher.

 

Dojji, you know people don't really read posts before they respond.

[Maxbialystock]

Ok Max - How many posters here are actually crying over Swihart not being our starting catcher? 1 maybe 2 you think. You really are starting to make this sound as though anyone who supports Swihart must think that he should be a starter for this team. I don't get the sense that that is the case at all. Some of us would just like to see this kid get a little more of a chance than he already has.

 

Guilty as charged, except for one thing. I am fine with Swihart on the active roster precisely because he brings some versatility--especially as a 3d catcher even though he hasn't been used there--and some hitting (and switch-hitting) potential.

 

My harangue, if such it is, is based on my complete support for the way Cora is managing this team right now. He seems to me to be pushing all that right buttons, and that includes who he puts in the lineup on any given day. And lately his biggest problem is dealing with the absence of Mookie Betts, a legit contender (if he can stay healthy) for AL MVP this year. To date the Sox are 11-4 without Mookie in the lineup or in 2 cases when he was taken out after 1 at bat or none.

 

To me that 11-4, small sample size though it is, suggests that not only has Cora managed things very well, but also that the Sox actually have pretty good depth despite the complaints on talksox that they don't.

 

So, yes, Swihart is a good guy to have on the active roster. But I am more than fine with him sitting on the bench if that is what Cora thinks will help the team win.

[Spudboy]

You guys are misunderstanding what I'm saying. Did I ever claim he was going to be a starter? What I said was Dan Butler would be a competent backup catcher if we had space for one. That is NOT a very high bar to meet. As a third catcher on the depth chart, to come up in emergencies and not stink up the joint, Butler could do that at least. With 3 healthy catchers on the big league roster i don't expect this to happen this year, but he's a good addition to the depth chart where he is and, as mentioned, a very solid organizational catcher.

 

Dojji, you know people don't really read posts before they respond.

 

Hmmm.

 

"Butler has hit at lower levels"

 

Yeah. I guess that somehow I imagined this statement.

[Dojji]

Hmmm.

 

"Butler has hit at lower levels"

 

Yeah. I guess that somehow I imagined this statement.

As recently as last year, Butler was putting up decent offensive numbers in Pawtucket

[Emp9]

I once did a study on how our pitchers did the day after Wake pitched. I have since lost the data, but it showed our staff ERA was about 0.50 better.

 

Knuckle ballers mess up the opponents timing. Their value stretches beyond their start.

 

Wright had a record of success for many years in a row before his injury & suspension. We should not view him doing well as a fluke.

 

In 2016, Wright started the season with a 2.18 ERA over his first 15 starts.

 

Only 1 start saw him let up over 3 ERs (5).

 

In 12 of his first 14 starts, he let up 2 or less runs. The guy is capable of putting up good numbers for more than a month or so.

 

Before 2016:

 

3.95 ERA MLB in 107 IP (203-2015)

 

3.81 ERA in AAA 2015 (52 IP)

3.42 ERA in AA/AAA 2014 (100 IP)

3.46 ERA in AAA 2013 (135 IP)

3.41 ERA in winter ball '12-'13 (29 IP)

3.49 ERA in AA/AAA 2012 in 142 IP

 

This is the model of consistency.

 

The injury messed him up. The suspension slowed his return.

 

He's back.

 

 

 

I think people forget how dominant he was in ‘16 before his injury(s). He was essentially our #2, some weeks it was difficult to distinguish who our #1 was between Porcello and Wright, 4 CGs, AS, in CY Young conversation. I know the Knuckleball isn’t as sexy as a higher velocity pitch, the higher walk rate, the Wild pitches and Passed balls, not to mention even the weather may play a factor.

 

I remember you posting the numbers on Wake’s starts and the Starts from other SPs (usually Pedro?) immediately following

His, In the same series of course. That was a long time ago now. I don't remember them with any accuracy though.

 

Cora is probably oblivious to all that a healthy Wright can provide. I suggest he go watch some 2016 video. Wright’s got the right attitude and he seems happy just to be out there again and healthy. I wouldn’t say Wright is wasted in the BP currently, but if he continues to put up 7 innings like the other night in spot starts Cora gotta give him his due sooner over later.

[mvp 78]

As recently as last year, Butler was putting up decent offensive numbers in Pawtucket

 

Sorry, stats scare Spud.

[Spudboy]

As recently as last year, Butler was putting up decent offensive numbers in Pawtucket

 

Thanks for the clarification.

 

I now understand that one year of "decent offensive numbers" equals "hit at all levels".

 

It's amazing how much there is to learn about my favorite game.

[Spudboy]

Sorry, stats scare Spud.

 

Lol.

 

You got that right oh bearded one! A .211 average over 9 years in MiLB ball is scary.

[moonslav59]

I think people forget how dominant he was in ‘16 before his injury(s). He was essentially our #2, some weeks it was difficult to distinguish who our #1 was between Porcello and Wright, 4 CGs, AS, in CY Young conversation. I know the Knuckleball isn’t as sexy as a higher velocity pitch, the higher walk rate, the Wild pitches and Passed balls, not to mention even the weather may play a factor.

 

I remember you posting the numbers on Wake’s starts and the Starts from other SPs (usually Pedro?) immediately following

His, In the same series of course. That was a long time ago now. I don't remember them with any accuracy though.

 

Cora is probably oblivious to all that a healthy Wright can provide. I suggest he go watch some 2016 video. Wright’s got the right attitude and he seems happy just to be out there again and healthy. I wouldn’t say Wright is wasted in the BP currently, but if he continues to put up 7 innings like the other night in spot starts Cora gotta give him his due sooner over later.

 

Lost all the game after Wake data when my computer died. I remember it showed that the ERA was about a half run better the game right after a Wake start.

 

On 2016, Porcello came on strong in the second half. He started out slowly. Wright, by the numbers was the clear "ace" on the Sox over his first 14-15 starts.

 

Starter ERA after 14 and 15 starts:

 

Wright 2.01/2.18

Porcello 3.76/3.93

Price 4.52/4.24

 

I'm not saying Wright can put up 2.18 numbers for a whole season, but he proved he could do it for 14 games in a row.

 

Note: he was still at 2.67 after 19 starts!

 

He was at about 3.45 for 3 years before 2016. He's been very consistent, until his injury. He's was no more inconsistent than any fastball, curve ball or sider pitcher from 2012 to 2016.

 

I keep hearing, "but when a knuckle ball pitcher loses it..." I always reply, when any pitcher "loses it," they look bad.

 

Wright is for real. He's not a fluke.

 

Pom might need some luck to ever start for us again.

[Maxbialystock]

Lost all the game after Wake data when my computer died. I remember it showed that the ERA was about a half run better the game right after a Wake start.

 

On 2016, Porcello came on strong in the second half. He started out slowly. Wright, by the numbers was the clear "ace" on the Sox over his first 14-15 starts.

 

Starter ERA after 14 and 15 starts:

 

Wright 2.01/2.18

Porcello 3.76/3.93

Price 4.52/4.24

 

I'm not saying Wright can put up 2.18 numbers for a whole season, but he proved he could do it for 14 games in a row.

 

Note: he was still at 2.67 after 19 starts!

 

He was at about 3.45 for 3 years before 2016. He's been very consistent, until his injury. He's was no more inconsistent than any fastball, curve ball or sider pitcher from 2012 to 2016.

 

I keep hearing, "but when a knuckle ball pitcher loses it..." I always reply, when any pitcher "loses it," they look bad.

 

Wright is for real. He's not a fluke.

 

Pom might need some luck to ever start for us again.

 

I find that last line fascinating in view of your continual support for Pom and regular trotting out of his 2017 and even 2016 stats. What has changed your mind? Do you think he is injured?

 

I have no issues with your Wright assertions. I do think the knuckler can be a fragile thing, but also think good command of a fast ball and/or curve isn't always readily at hand. See Chris Sale last year.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

I find that last line fascinating in view of your continual support for Pom and regular trotting out of his 2017 and even 2016 stats. What has changed your mind? Do you think he is injured?

 

I have no issues with your Wright assertions. I do think the knuckler can be a fragile thing, but also think good command of a fast ball and/or curve isn't always readily at hand. See Chris Sale last year.

 

My belief in Wright has been longer standing than Pom's Sox tenure. I still like Pom, but I'm confident Wright is going to pitch so well, that there's just no way he gets demoted out of the rotation. The "luck" I spoke of would mean and injury to someone or Wright having some bad luck that would enable Pom the inside track on taking his slot back.

 

Pom does not seem like the same guy as 2016-2017. Maybe it's an injury. Maybe it's mechanics. Maybe he's just in a rut. Less likely, to me, is that he was never as good as 2016-2017 and we're seeing the "real POM" now, but I guess that's possible.

 

I was a big Wake fan and supporter, even through the tough times. I pitched a knuckle ball in softball for years, so I have a bias.

 

The domestic issues with Wright tempered my entusiasm for him, but my belief in his ability to get guys out consistently has never wavered.

 

[Maxbialystock]

What a knuckler works, it works very, very well. Even better than a great splitter which actually depends on also throwing a fastball (which need not be great however).

 

I do remember Wright in 2016 and was dazzled Tuesday night--and even think that moonslav's theory about the after effect in the next game well be true.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Maxbialystock