WAR is the dumbest stat known to mankind (Trout vs. Betts)

[notin]

I'm happy to report that today, Mookie Betts stands at 8.1 WAR and Mike Trout at 7.8.

 

Lost in all this Trout vs Betts for MVP chatter is darkhorse Jose Ramirez, who would be a runaway candidate in just about any other season...

[Slasher9]

right now i would give the award to JDM.

and i am a defense guy. weird.

[S5Dewey]

right now i would give the award to JDM.

and i am a defense guy. weird.

 

The thing that will hurt JDM in the MVP race is that he's primarily a DH with (sorry, but) mediocre defensive skills.

 

IMO the real MVP race is between Mookie & Trout and could be decided by which team goes deeper into the playoffs. "To the winners go the spoils".

[Maxbialystock]

right now i would give the award to JDM.

and i am a defense guy. weird.

 

Before WAR, JDM would have been a shoo-in. He will still get some votes, but will not get MVP because he is, in the end, a DH. As big a difference as I think JDM has made and even considering he is willing to play in the outfield, I think no DH should be MVP. To me part of winning the MVP has to be not sitting in the dugout when your team takes the field.

[Slasher9]

i dont disagree with either of you. but i honestly believe that just him being in our lineup has made a YUUUUGE difference for the output for the entire lineup.

if he wins the triple crown?

[harmony]

The thing that will hurt JDM in the MVP race is that he's primarily a DH with (sorry, but) mediocre defensive skills.

 

IMO the real MVP race is between Mookie & Trout and could be decided by which team goes deeper into the playoffs. "To the winners go the spoils".

The MVP vote is taken before the postseason.

 

Postseason expansion changes MVP vote | MLB.com

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Edited August 13, 2018 by harmony

[S5Dewey]

The MVP vote is taken before the postseason.

 

Oops. Thanks.

[greenwell]

Before WAR, JDM would have been a shoo-in. He will still get some votes, but will not get MVP because he is, in the end, a DH. As big a difference as I think JDM has made and even considering he is willing to play in the outfield, I think no DH should be MVP. To me part of winning the MVP has to be not sitting in the dugout when your team takes the field.

 

Personally I don't hold it against someone that his team chose to use him as a DH, especially when he is capable of playing the field. On the other hand, he doesn't get any credit for being a plus defender like both Mookie and Trout.

[greenwell]

i dont disagree with either of you. but i honestly believe that just him being in our lineup has made a YUUUUGE difference for the output for the entire lineup.

if he wins the triple crown?

 

It's hard to say which sox player is more valuable. I do think if he wins the triple crown or gets 50 HR, he has an excellent chance of getting the award.

[harmony]

As a side note, some Seattle fans think closer Edwin Diaz should be under consideration for a Cy Young Award or Most Valuable Player:

 

http://forums.seattletimes.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=242523&start=10

 

Diaz has posted 46 saves with a 1.98 ERA, 15.3 K/9 and 6.67 K/BB for a Mariner team that is 19 games above .500 despite a negative 22 run differential. The M's are 30-14 in one-run games.

 

Over the weekend Diaz became the first pitcher in 14 years to post four saves in a four-game series. The slumping Mariners went into Houston to face Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel but came away with a sweep.

 

Despite that the Mariners would again be on the postseason sidelines if the season ended today.

[kenmeister]

Before WAR, JDM would have been a shoo-in. He will still get some votes, but will not get MVP because he is, in the end, a DH. As big a difference as I think JDM has made and even considering he is willing to play in the outfield, I think no DH should be MVP. To me part of winning the MVP has to be not sitting in the dugout when your team takes the field.

 

To be fair, he's started 43 games in the outfield so far this year.

 

At any rate, I think the MVP usually goes to a player who you can say, "Without this guy, this team wouldn't have made the playoffs." And to me, that guy is JD Martinez. But if Mookie wins it I'm happy too.

[notin]

Before WAR, JDM would have been a shoo-in. He will still get some votes, but will not get MVP because he is, in the end, a DH. As big a difference as I think JDM has made and even considering he is willing to play in the outfield, I think no DH should be MVP. To me part of winning the MVP has to be not sitting in the dugout when your team takes the field.

 

I would disagree that a DH should not win MVP. We’ve all seen numerous no-field, all-bat first basemen win the award, and the token act of putting on a glove doesn’t make a player more valuable.

 

But in the case of Martinez, it’s hard to argue that his offensive contributions outweigh the offensive and defensive contributions of Betts, Trout, and Ramirez.

 

Were I a voting member of the BBWAA, Martinez would get a fourth place vote from me under the old system. Under the new “three nominee” system, he might not be nominated at all...

Edited August 13, 2018 by notin

[Kimmi]

Really? Do you actually think umpires are not accountable to league office and to job reviews?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the factors held against them were number of calls an umpire made that was challenged and/or overturned....

 

The umpires are subject to performance reviews, for sure.

 

However, what happens to them if they miss a large number of calls?

 

Are they replaced?

[notin]

The umpires are subject to performance reviews, for sure.

 

However, what happens to them if they miss a large number of calls?

 

Are they replaced?

 

They are in a union, so the effects are probably mitigated...

[Kimmi]

right now i would give the award to JDM.

and i am a defense guy. weird.

 

It's a tough call, but I'd have to give it to Mookie.

 

Not only does he lead JD in WAR by 2.6, but in terms of offense alone, Mookie leads JD in wRC+ 192 to 182.

 

Then you throw in Mookie's elite defense and his far superior base running skills, Mookie is more deserving.

[Kimmi]

Before WAR, JDM would have been a shoo-in. He will still get some votes, but will not get MVP because he is, in the end, a DH. As big a difference as I think JDM has made and even considering he is willing to play in the outfield, I think no DH should be MVP. To me part of winning the MVP has to be not sitting in the dugout when your team takes the field.

 

Based on what? RBIs? I hope not.

 

Take the DH factor completely out of the discussion, and Mookie is still more deserving.

[Kimmi]

i dont disagree with either of you. but i honestly believe that just him being in our lineup has made a YUUUUGE difference for the output for the entire lineup.

if he wins the triple crown?

 

JD gets some points for intangibles, I will grant you that.

 

That said, I think his overall effect on the rest of the line up is overstated.

[Kimmi]

As a side note, some Seattle fans think closer Edwin Diaz should be under consideration for a Cy Young Award or Most Valuable Player:

 

http://forums.seattletimes.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=242523&start=10

 

Diaz has posted 46 saves with a 1.98 ERA, 15.3 K/9 and 6.67 K/BB for a Mariner team that is 19 games above .500 despite a negative 22 run differential. The M's are 30-14 in one-run games.

 

Over the weekend Diaz became the first pitcher in 14 years to post four saves in a four-game series. The slumping Mariners went into Houston to face Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel but came away with a sweep.

 

Despite that the Mariners would again be on the postseason sidelines if the season ended today.

 

Diaz is most definitely the relief pitcher of the year, and worthy of consideration in the Cy Young vote.

 

That said, he's going to have a really hard time beating Sale.

[Kimmi]

To be fair, he's started 43 games in the outfield so far this year.

 

At any rate, I think the MVP usually goes to a player who you can say, "Without this guy, this team wouldn't have made the playoffs." And to me, that guy is JD Martinez. But if Mookie wins it I'm happy too.

 

That is a fair point.

 

To those that believe that JD is what turned our offense around, I can understand the vote for him.

[Slasher9]

JD gets some points for intangibles, I will grant you that.

 

That said, I think his overall effect on the rest of the line up is overstated.

 

it's hard to prove one way or the other. but the numbers around him sure do help his case......

[Kimmi]

They are in a union, so the effects are probably mitigated...

 

Which is exactly my point.

 

The same umpires are still trotted out there and they continue to miss the calls.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not asking for robot umps or more replay.

 

Just don't hit me with the argument that umpires are held accountable.

[Kimmi]

it's hard to prove one way or the other. but the numbers around him sure do help his case......

 

A perfect case of "correlation does not imply causation".

 

I said before the season started that our offense would be improved this year even without JD. After we signed JD, I also stated that once our offense improves like it would have anyway, JD will get all the credit.

 

Not that I'm in any way wanting to give up JD, but in that respect, I really wish we could play out the season without him.

[notin]

Which is exactly my point.

 

The same umpires are still trotted out there and they continue to miss the calls.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not asking for robot umps or more replay.

 

Just don't hit me with the argument that umpires are held accountable.

 

I’m going to hit you with that argument.

 

Umpires are disciplined. Umpires with bad calls are re-trained, but other disciplines are kept quiet due to union regulations. They do not get demoted, but they can get suspended. Joe West was suspended for an altercation with Papelbon, for example. Once in 2013, an entire crew was suspended for job performance issues.

 

Largely umpires have fought against technological advancements like Questec and STATCAST, but many have admitted these systems have helped them improve their jobs and even alter their perspectives.

 

It is worth noting that since umpires have been graded against these systems, the frequency of bad calls and ejections have declined...

[S5Dewey]

Which is exactly my point.

 

The same umpires are still trotted out there and they continue to miss the calls.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not asking for robot umps or more replay.

 

Just don't hit me with the argument that umpires are held accountable.

 

Exactly. I see the same umps doing the same things over and over again. If they're being "counseled" or "retrained" it's not working. While I don't have access to their CBA it doesn't appear that there is any recourse beyond those two things.

 

I keep vacillating on the topic of robo-umps. I don't want to see robo-umps but I do want to see umpires do a better job of calling balls & strikes. Maybe during their next CBA negotiations the threat of robo-umps will motivate the umpires to take some positive steps toward continuity between human umpires.

 

Edit: Written while Notin was posting above.

[greenwell]

Exactly. I see the same umps doing the same things over and over again. If they're being "counseled" or "retrained" it's not working. While I don't have access to their CBA it doesn't appear that there is any recourse beyond those two things.

 

I keep vacillating on the topic of robo-umps. I don't want to see robo-umps but I do want to see umpires do a better job of calling balls & strikes. Maybe during their next CBA negotiations the threat of robo-umps will motivate the umpires to take some positive steps toward continuity between human umpires.

 

Edit: Written while Notin was posting above.

 

How many threads need to have this robo-ump discussion? How is that related to WAR being a dumb stat?

[Kimmi]

I’m going to hit you with that argument.

 

Umpires are disciplined. Umpires with bad calls are re-trained, but other disciplines are kept quiet due to union regulations. They do not get demoted, but they can get suspended. Joe West was suspended for an altercation with Papelbon, for example. Once in 2013, an entire crew was suspended for job performance issues.

 

Largely umpires have fought against technological advancements like Questec and STATCAST, but many have admitted these systems have helped them improve their jobs and even alter their perspectives.

 

It is worth noting that since umpires have been graded against these systems, the frequency of bad calls and ejections have declined...

 

I'm sure there are disciplinary measures. The umpire suspensions are very few and far between, and to my knowledge, none of the suspensions are due to missed ball or strike calls. I'm not talking about suspensions due to altercations. I'm talking about accountability for calling balls and strikes.

 

Fair enough point if you say that pitch calling has improved since computerized systems have been in place. I've also heard that some umpires don't even look at that information provided to them.

 

All I know is that I can watch an umpire make some pretty bad calls behind the plate, and I will see that same umpire behind the plate year after year after year, making the same bad calls. Which IMO, means no accountability.

[Bellhorn04]

A perfect case of "correlation does not imply causation".

 

I said before the season started that our offense would be improved this year even without JD. After we signed JD, I also stated that once our offense improves like it would have anyway, JD will get all the credit.

 

Not that I'm in any way wanting to give up JD, but in that respect, I really wish we could play out the season without him.

 

Kimmi, I have not looked at this myself, but it might be interesting to look at Arizona's offense before and after JD last year.

[Kimmi]

Exactly. I see the same umps doing the same things over and over again. If they're being "counseled" or "retrained" it's not working. While I don't have access to their CBA it doesn't appear that there is any recourse beyond those two things.

 

I keep vacillating on the topic of robo-umps. I don't want to see robo-umps but I do want to see umpires do a better job of calling balls & strikes. Maybe during their next CBA negotiations the threat of robo-umps will motivate the umpires to take some positive steps toward continuity between human umpires.

 

Edit: Written while Notin was posting above.

 

I don't see where any of the so called accountability is helping either. Not when you see the same things over and over again.

 

IMO, accountability would mean either being demoted or fired if standards are not met after maybe 3 bad performance reviews, or something along those lines.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, I have not looked at this myself, but it might be interesting to look at Arizona's offense before and after JD last year.

 

Well, looking into that would take far more time than I have, in order to filter everything by dates for each player.

 

But looking at first half vs second half stats for the team as a whole, the offensive numbers are as follows:

 

1st half

 

.259/.328/.443/.771, wRC+ 94, WAR 10.7

 

2nd half

 

.248/.331/.447/.778, wRC+ 96, WAR 8.4

 

JD was acquired by the Dbacks on July 19th, so the above split is not quite exact.

 

The numbers in the second half are very slightly better, but just adding JD's bat to the line up should improve overall numbers over a weaker bat.

 

In short, you can't conclude anything from what I've posted.

[harmony]

Kimmi, I have not looked at this myself, but it might be interesting to look at Arizona's offense before and after JD last year.

The 2017 Diamondbacks averaged 5.01 runs a game in the 93 games before J.D. Martinez was acquired and 5.01 runs a game in the 69 games after Martinez was acquired.

 

Arizona posted a 54-39 (.581) record before Martinez came on board and a 39-30 (.565) record afterward.