2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)

[sk7326]

Moncada started the last third of the season and posted a +0.9 WAR in 54 games. Prorated to 162, that's 2.9. That's way better than "replacement" level.

 

He's a starter.

 

Again, I'm fine with not playing it halfway, but I'm also not going to deny the long term effects (not that you are).

 

When we traded away almost our whole pitching staff years ago, I was fine with the idea. We were losing those guys anyway. What I disliked about the return we got was that I felt Ben played it "halfway". I felt he should have tried for higher ceiling players rather than established ML players and fully ML ready youngsters.

 

not denying them - just look at them as something to fix, and holding out judgment on whether it will happen. At some point you have to make choices - and ultimately everyone is here to win. The Sox are not in a place that most good teams don't get to at some point. You have a good farm, the kids graduate and you have to replace. There seems to be more uncertainty about the replacements - but things change quickly.

 

What Dombrowski has done well on that front is deal with the farm aggressively - in terms of identifying who to deal, and who to keep. We'll see what happens.

 

The 2015 sell off was bad because of what you said - that was a missed opportunity.

[Kimmi]

I don't think DD was supposed to 'forsake the future'. My position has been that he had little choice but to trade a lot of prospects to upgrade the pitching staff.

 

To date, DD has done next to nothing in terms of acquiring position players. It's been pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

His legacy as a Red Sox GM still has a little while to play out.

 

I think you give Dombrowski too much credit or leeway. He could have built a contending team without depleting the farm.

[Kimmi]

If the sox won a title, then his plan worked

 

If we win a title, Dombrowski will be justified and forgiven for trading away the farm.

[Kimmi]

Org rankings ... #24 (down from 16) http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22197478/keith-law-2018-ranking-all-30-farm-systems

 

Can you say 'cliff'?

[Bellhorn04]

I think you give Dombrowski too much credit or leeway. He could have built a contending team without depleting the farm.

 

Maybe, but let's see some specifics as far as the alternative moves he could have made to upgrade the pitching.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think DD might have gone too hard too fast. When DD took over after a disastrous 2015, the AL was wide open. KC won, but they had maybe another year in their window. The Jays looked to be the class of the game but they had age and depth issues with their best pitcher (Price) hitting the market. The Yanks were receding and the Stros appeared to be rising. I think DD saw an AL that was wide open and an ALE that was ripe for the picking. He was right for two season on the ALE but he didn’t see the Guardians turning into a force and the Stros turning into a super team. Nobody saw the Yankees returning as well as they have. DD, in retrospect, would probably have preferred to hold a year knowing what we know now. He’s got one year left before cap hell is going to start taking from a team that had been adding

[Bellhorn04]

I think DD might have gone too hard too fast. When DD took over after a disastrous 2015, the AL was wide open. KC won, but they had maybe another year in their window. The Jays looked to be the class of the game but they had age and depth issues with their best pitcher (Price) hitting the market. The Yanks were receding and the Stros appeared to be rising. I think DD saw an AL that was wide open and an ALE that was ripe for the picking. He was right for two season on the ALE but he didn’t see the Guardians turning into a force and the Stros turning into a super team. Nobody saw the Yankees returning as well as they have. DD, in retrospect, would probably have preferred to hold a year knowing what we know now. He’s got one year left before cap hell is going to start taking from a team that had been adding

 

I see nothing wrong with DD's strategy for 2016 or 2017 considering we won the division both years. What more can you ask? We gagged in the playoffs both years, of course, and that tends to put more of a negative spin on everything.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you’re going to turn a team around quickly and create a window of competitiveness, you’d probably prefer that window was not when another team is coming into its own. Houston is going to be incredibly hard to beat this year

[Bellhorn04]

If you’re going to turn a team around quickly and create a window of competitiveness, you’d probably prefer that window was not when another team is coming into its own. Houston is going to be incredibly hard to beat this year

 

If you're trying to plan around what other teams are doing you might as well give up. IMHO

[moonslav59]

I think DD might have gone too hard too fast. When DD took over after a disastrous 2015, the AL was wide open. KC won, but they had maybe another year in their window. The Jays looked to be the class of the game but they had age and depth issues with their best pitcher (Price) hitting the market. The Yanks were receding and the Stros appeared to be rising. I think DD saw an AL that was wide open and an ALE that was ripe for the picking. He was right for two season on the ALE but he didn’t see the Guardians turning into a force and the Stros turning into a super team. Nobody saw the Yankees returning as well as they have. DD, in retrospect, would probably have preferred to hold a year knowing what we know now. He’s got one year left before cap hell is going to start taking from a team that had been adding

 

If HRam does not vest, we have two years before having to chose between losing a key player of going over the major penalty limit.

 

I'm not writing off 2020 either. (Porcello & Pablo drop off the ledger.)

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s without you guys getting JD

[moonslav59]

That’s without you guys getting JD

 

Depends if Henry is willing to go over the second luxury tax limit for consecutive seasons.

 

It's really the third limit that can be crippling, and even then, it would be crippling to seasons beginning near 2023-2024.

 

[Spudboy]

Maybe, but let's see some specifics as far as the alternative moves he could have made to upgrade the pitching.

 

Yup. Of course he could have gone out and gotten any number of players instead. But who would have been better choices and what players would have been acceptable losses to use in getting them?

[moonslav59]

Well, it does seem like some of the top, recent players acquired via trade have not cost as much as Sale, Pom and Kimbrel did.

 

One could possibly imagine we might have gotten more had we waited a couple years.

 

(Note: I loved the Sale trade, and I recognized the need to do something to end out last place trend back then.)

[sk7326]

Can you say 'cliff'?

 

We have too many quality under 28 players to say that.

[sk7326]

Well, it does seem like some of the top, recent players acquired via trade have not cost as much as Sale, Pom and Kimbrel did.

 

One could possibly imagine we might have gotten more had we waited a couple years.

 

(Note: I loved the Sale trade, and I recognized the need to do something to end out last place trend back then.)

 

I don't know - years of control is a big deal here. 2 years of Chris Sale was bound to be pricey. And the teams dealing them were actually trying to get players back - unlike Miami (the Yelich deal was the first one which got real upside back). The Kimbrel deal was steep, but paid for with a guy who was getting blocked. The Pomeranz deal was again paid for with a low-A pitcher - super talented, but a risk because all pitchers are risks.

[Kimmi]

Maybe, but let's see some specifics as far as the alternative moves he could have made to upgrade the pitching.

 

Alternative moves - Don't trade for Kimbrel or Sale. That's the gist of it. I am on record as not being thrilled about either of those moves when they happened. They were both overpays, and IMO, the trade for Sale was overkill.

 

I'm pretty sure we would have won the division in 2016 without Kimbrel. We might not have won the division in 2017 without Sale and Kimbrel, but that would have been due to injuries that were unforeseen at the time of the Sale trade.

[Kimmi]

I see nothing wrong with DD's strategy for 2016 or 2017 considering we won the division both years. What more can you ask? We gagged in the playoffs both years, of course, and that tends to put more of a negative spin on everything.

 

My spin has nothing to do with gagging in the playoffs. The playoffs are a crapshoot. My point is that we were likely playoff bound anyway with the signing of Price. I wasn't thrilled with that contract either, but I understand that we needed a top pitcher that offseason, and he cost only money.

[Kimmi]

We have too many quality under 28 players to say that.

 

But they mostly all become free agents within a year of each other.

 

We don't have the cost controlled quality to replace them, and we can't keep them all.

[Bellhorn04]

Alternative moves - Don't trade for Kimbrel or Sale. That's the gist of it. I am on record as not being thrilled about either of those moves when they happened. They were both overpays, and IMO, the trade for Sale was overkill.

 

I'm pretty sure we would have won the division in 2016 without Kimbrel. We might not have won the division in 2017 without Sale and Kimbrel, but that would have been due to injuries that were unforeseen at the time of the Sale trade.

 

And how would we look for 2018 without Sale and Kimbrel?

[Kimmi]

And how would we look for 2018 without Sale and Kimbrel?

 

Like a contending team without a foreboding cliff.

 

It's hard to know what subsequent moves would have been made. But for instance, we might have focused on Darvish or Arrieta this offseason. Or traded for Stanton, then traded JBJ or Beni for starting pitching. Not that I'd be thrilled with doing that, but my point is that I think moves could have been made that kept the Sox competitive now without so much of the farm.

[Bellhorn04]

Like a contending team without a foreboding cliff.

 

It's hard to know what subsequent moves would have been made. But for instance, we might have focused on Darvish or Arrieta this offseason. Or traded for Stanton, then traded JBJ or Beni for starting pitching. Not that I'd be thrilled with doing that, but my point is that I think moves could have been made that kept the Sox competitive now without so much of the farm.

 

I think your position is reasonable but debatable.

 

Certainly when John Henry hired DD he was looking for an aggressive approach.

 

At the end of the day I think the current position can be traced to Henry, Dombrowski, Lucchino, and Cherington all. They all played their roles. You'll never hear me say anything bad about Theo, though. He was great and they screwed up letting him go.

[Kimmi]

I think your position is reasonable but debatable.

 

Certainly when John Henry hired DD he was looking for an aggressive approach.

 

At the end of the day I think the current position can be traced to Henry, Dombrowski, Lucchino, and Cherington all. They all played their roles. You'll never hear me say anything bad about Theo, though. He was great and they screwed up letting him go.

 

Fair enough. I never said that Ben was without blame. I just feel like he receives too much blame and not enough credit. At the same time, I feel like Dombrowski receives too much credit for getting the team back into the playoffs when they were pretty much already at that point when he arrived.

 

I have no doubt that Henry was looking for Dombrowski to take an aggressive approach. I blame Henry for not having enough patience to let Ben see his 5 year plan come to fruition.

[a700hitter]

Fair enough. I never said that Ben was without blame. I just feel like he receives too much blame and not enough credit. At the same time, I feel like Dombrowski receives too much credit for getting the team back into the playoffs when they were pretty much already at that point when he arrived.

 

I have no doubt that Henry was looking for Dombrowski to take an aggressive approach. I blame Henry for not having enough patience to let Ben see his 5 year plan come to fruition.

if Ben’s plan came to fruition, it would have come to fruition without pitching as he was clueless when it came to pitching, and you can’t win without pitching.

[moonslav59]

if Ben’s plan came to fruition, it would have come to fruition without pitching as he was clueless when it came to pitching, and you can’t win without pitching.

 

We'll never know who he would have acquired, but I'm certain he would have gone large for at least 1 SP'er (Price/Cueto/Grenke?)

 

While Porcello has been largely up and down, he has given us an 8.8 WAR at a fraction of the cost of Price, Scherzer and even Lester.

 

Ben also acquired Uehara, Badenhop, R Ross and converted Andrew Miller to a RP'er. This makes him at least not totally "clueless" with pitchers.

 

Look, there's no doubt our rotation got way worse under Ben's watch, but I am certain he was planning on boosting the pitching the upcoming winter before he quit. He chose to try and boost the offense in 2015 knowing a bunch of pitchers were going to be on the market the following year. Yes, in hindsight, signing Scherzer instead of HRam and Pablo would have saved his job, but had Porcello and HRam had their 2017 seasons in 2016, Ben might still be here now.

 

[a700hitter]

We'll never know who he would have acquired, but I'm certain he would have gone large for at least 1 SP'er (Price/Cueto/Grenke?)

 

While Porcello has been largely up and down, he has given us an 8.8 WAR at a fraction of the cost of Price, Scherzer and even Lester.

 

Ben also acquired Uehara, Badenhop, R Ross and converted Andrew Miller to a RP'er. This makes him at least not totally "clueless" with pitchers.

 

Look, there's no doubt our rotation got way worse under Ben's watch, but I am certain he was planning on boosting the pitching the upcoming winter before he quit. He chose to try and boost the offense in 2015 knowing a bunch of pitchers were going to be on the market the following year. Yes, in hindsight, signing Scherzer instead of HRam and Pablo would have saved his job, but had Porcello and HRam had their 2017 seasons in 2016, Ben might still be here now.

 

His record with pitching-- in particular starting pitching-- was very bad.

[moonslav59]

His record with pitching-- in particular starting pitching-- was very bad.

 

No doubt, and when one superficially looks at the rotation he inherited vs the one he left, it's easy to label that part of his judgement "clueless-" the low ball offer to Lester being the lowest of the lows, however, the staff was all nearing free agency and coming off "beergate."

 

Serious mistakes and blunders were made. I'm not defending Ben's choices on starting pitchers. I hated the Masterson deal, but I liked the Miley deal. I disliked the Dempster deal, but many thought it was a good one. I hated how we treated the Lester negotiation, but once we screwed that up, I felt the trades (staff dump) we made was called for. I had hoped we'd have traded those guys for younger players, but Cespedes did bring us Porcello and Kelly is now blossoming into a quality set-up man. Craig bombed out, of course, but that was hard to know was coming. Peavy brought us Hembree. We got Marco Hernandez for Doubront. The jury still out a little bit on some of our acquired players, but the years of team control we had remaining of the starters we traded away were minimal.

 

At the time, I argued we should have signed Scherzer over HRam & Pablo, but understood the plan to wait for the stocked free agent class of the following year. Ultimately, it's Ben's fault hardly anybody performed like they had the year before being signed or acquired (HRam, Pablo & Porcello being the most notable), but he wasn't clueless, IMO.

 

I firmly believe he'd have made a trade or two like the Sale one but not trades like Kimbrel. He'd have spent as large as DD was allowed but maybe not on Price, which probably would have been a good thing. Maybe he doesn't sign Young or Moreland. Maybe he doesn't trade Travis Shaw (cheaper than Moreland's contract). Too many maybes to know anything, but I doubt Ben was going to just keep stock-piling prospects for the sake of it.

 

[Bellhorn04]

While Porcello has been largely up and down, he has given us an 8.8 WAR at a fraction of the cost of Price, Scherzer and even Lester.

 

Way overstated. Porcello has NOT been a better value than Scherzer or Lester so far in terms of dollars per fWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

The other thing about Porcello is that he might be a case of being treated a little too well by fWAR as opposed to bWAR.

 

If you look at Porcello's ERA+ or ERA-, he has actually been a below average pitcher most years.

[Spudboy]

The other thing about Porcello is that he might be a case of being treated a little too well by fWAR as opposed to bWAR.

 

If you look at Porcello's ERA+ or ERA-, he has actually been a below average pitcher most years.

 

I like Porcello and have done so since he plunked and threw to the ground Youk.

 

Never the less he is a mid-rotation innings eater that had one very good year.

 

At least the Sox got something for loosing Lester.