Martinez vs Hosmer vs Santana

[moonslav59]

Were pitchers pitching around Duda for his first 41 games in the famed 2015 season of bunched up HRs?

 

He had just 3 HRs up to May 20th, yet his BA was .295 and his OBP was .388, but I guess when he's not hitting HRs, he's next to useless.

 

I wasn't there watching him play, so I guess the numbers must be fake news.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

If we think Duda is not our type guy. Then how about trading for abreau?

 

We give up defense but get a masher with two years of control left.

[a700hitter]

Were pitchers pitching around Duda for his first 41 games in the famed 2015 season of bunched up HRs?

 

He had just 3 HRs up to May 20th, yet his BA was .295 and his OBP was .388, but I guess when he's not hitting HRs, he's next to useless.

 

I wasn't there watching him play, so I guess the numbers must be fake news.

 

 

You lack context for your stats-- a weakness of relying purely on stats.

[a700hitter]

I'm not so wild about Duda either. But the funny thing is, your attempts to discredit him as a player really kept making him sound better and better.

 

Now out of Duda, Morrison, Alonso, and Bruce, all things considered, I could see choosing Duda, especially for one year in a platoon role. That the Mets didn't want him back then becomes irrelevant, since it's for an entirely different role...

You must be reading my posts wrong, or maybe you like a player that has 3 one-week power surges and not much else except a low batting average, no speed, average fielding at best, and chronic physical injuries to more than one part of his body.

[a700hitter]

Were pitchers pitching around Duda for his first 41 games in the famed 2015 season of bunched up HRs?

 

He had just 3 HRs up to May 20th, yet his BA was .295 and his OBP was .388, but I guess when he's not hitting HRs, he's next to useless.

 

I wasn't there watching him play, so I guess the numbers must be fake news.

 

 

That's a cherry-picked Batting Average in a year where he hit only .244 and batted .187 in June, .178 in July and .222 in September. His run production was lacking too. I realize that RBI has limited utility, but RBI and Runs scored do provide additional context. In 2015, 73 RBI and 66 Runs scored was not good run production, especially from a guy with 27 HRs. In 2017, he had 30 HRs and 64 RBI. He will not improve our run production. Moreland is better.

[notin]

You must be reading my posts wrong, or maybe you like a player that has 3 one-week power surges and not much else except a low batting average, no speed, average fielding at best, and chronic physical injuries to more than one part of his body.

 

I understand your posts.

 

You think the entire NL is pitching around Duda and also think it would be a bad idea to get him out of a weak Mets lineup and move him into Boston where he won't be so easily pitched around, presumably letting him unleash that power.

 

I think you overestimate his power but underestimate his discipline. I agree he isn't much, but the debate over who is better between him and Moreland isn't so easy to determine. I'm pretty sure you csn find months where Moreland struggled...

[a700hitter]

I understand your posts.

 

You think the entire NL is pitching around Duda and also think it would be a bad idea to get him out of a weak Mets lineup and move him into Boston where he won't be so easily pitched around, presumably letting him unleash that power.

 

I think you overestimate his power but underestimate his discipline. I agree he isn't much, but the debate over who is better between him and Moreland isn't so easy to determine. I'm pretty sure you csn find months where Moreland struggled...

Like I said, you don’t understand my posts. Of course his walks are attributable to plate discipline, but they are also attributable to pitchers not willing to feed him a cookie that can be hit out of the park when the hitters following him don’t carry that threat and 3 Hits will be needed to score Duda. Don’t mistake that for Duda being a big offensive stud to be pitched around. That is just not true. He was just was the best long ball hitter on the team save when Cespedes was healthy.

 

His run production is not good. A Met fan at one game gave me the run down on how useless he was as a run producer when not hitting HRs. It is pretty bad. It was far more compelling than some stats compiled here.

 

As for Moreland, I would prefer him because he is a much better fielder and he doesn’t have any chronic health issues.

Edited November 26, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

If we think Duda is not our type guy. Then how about trading for abreau?

 

We give up defense but get a masher with two years of control left.

 

The main plus of signing Duda is that we won't have to give up prospects or mega bucks for mega years or incur draft penalties by signing a QO free agent to get him. In theory, them money saved at 1B/DH could be spent to seriously up grade other areas.

 

Duda should never be the centerpiece of our winter moves.

[moonslav59]

You lack context for your stats-- a weakness of relying purely on stats.

 

A .388 OBP speaks for itself. The context was that it occured at a time when Duda was hitting just 3 HRs in a 41 game stretch.

 

You claimed when he was not hitting HRs in those three short stretches, he was not helping the team.

 

Clearly, .388 in any context is helping your team.

[a700hitter]

A .388 OBP speaks for itself. The context was that it occured at a time when Duda was hitting just 3 HRs in a 41 game stretch.

 

You claimed when he was not hitting HRs in those three short stretches, he was not helping the team.

 

Clearly, .388 in any context is helping your team.

A single stat is not context.

[moonslav59]

You must be reading my posts wrong, or maybe you like a player that has 3 one-week power surges and not much else except a low batting average, no speed, average fielding at best, and chronic physical injuries to more than one part of his body.

 

You keep harping one one of his last 3 full seasons in which his HRs and HRs alone were bunched up.

 

His defense and speed are about average for a 1Bman, so bringing that up is grasping for straws or strawmen.

 

His OBP is about at the mean for 1Bmen over the last 4 years.

 

He's pretty much average at everything, except for his exceptional power, which happens to be our biggest off season need.

 

Your best points are related to his health. I'd stick to that.

[a700hitter]

A .388 OBP speaks for itself. The context was that it occured at a time when Duda was hitting just 3 HRs in a 41 game stretch.

 

You claimed when he was not hitting HRs in those three short stretches, he was not helping the team.

 

Clearly, .388 in any context is helping your team.

If I didn't care about the Red Sox, I would hope that he would be acquired so that you could see it for yourself, but I can't. Duda would not be a good fit, and I don't think that he or Hanley would take well to platooning, and I am not talking about them being selfish. I think they need to play everyday when healthy to stay sharp. Some players are like that. Other guys can come off the bench ready to go.

[moonslav59]

His run production is not good. A Met fan at one game gave me the run down on how useless he was as a run producer when not hitting HRs. It is pretty bad. It was far more compelling than some stats compiled here.

 

Maybe that Mets fan was drunk.

 

No doubt, the RBI totals don't match up to the HR totals, but like you said, he's been hitting in a hapless line-up. One should expect less run production.

[moonslav59]

As for Moreland, I would prefer him because he is a much better fielder and he doesn’t have any chronic health issues.

 

So, long droughts of offensive production only matters with Duda.

 

Yes, Moreland is a better fielder and didn't miss much time due to injury. (Maybe he should have this year with the toe.)

 

However, Duda has 35 more PAs than Moreland over the last 4 years.

[moonslav59]

A single stat is not context.

 

I actually gave more context to that stat in an earlier post.

 

You claimed that during the only season Duda's HRs were bunched (3 years ago) highly influenced by his high BB rate. You claimed when Duda was not hitting HRs, he did little to help his team. You claimed his OBP was fueled only by his high BB rate. Talk about lack of context.

 

I offered clear evidence that during his longest stretch (41 games) of few HRs back in 2015, he hit .295 with a .388 OBP.

 

1) He was helping his team when he was not hitting HRs.

 

2) His OBP was not primarily fueled by a high BB% during the period you claimed he was "useless", apparently because some Mets fan told you it was so.

 

Did I get that context correct?

 

[a700hitter]

You keep harping one one of his last 3 full seasons in which his HRs and HRs alone were bunched up.

 

His defense and speed are about average for a 1Bman, so bringing that up is grasping for straws or strawmen.

 

His OBP is about at the mean for 1Bmen over the last 4 years.

 

He's pretty much average at everything, except for his exceptional power, which happens to be our biggest off season need.

 

Your best points are related to his health. I'd stick to that.

He's slow. He can't throw the ball-- similar to Hanley in that regard, and he has chronic injuries. You keep glossing over that one, because it is hard to find a stat for it. He has 2 bad hips, not one. Last spring training he needed shots in both hips to get him back on the field and a bad back. I am not a doctor, but these are usually degenerative situations that can cost lots of playing time. As for his speed, he is below average even for a first baseman, but probably not by much. That is not a strawman. I am just pointing out that he doesn't bring speed or good fielding to the table. You can tolerate hitting slumps more if the guy has a plus glove. And speed is an element that helps run production when you are getting on base during a HR drought. When he is not hitting HRs, his run production is substandard.

[moonslav59]

If I didn't care about the Red Sox, I would hope that he would be acquired so that you could see it for yourself, but I can't. Duda would not be a good fit, and I don't think that he or Hanley would take well to platooning, and I am not talking about them being selfish. I think they need to play everyday when healthy to stay sharp. Some players are like that. Other guys can come off the bench ready to go.

 

That's a fair argument. I'm sure HRam would go ape s***, if he only played vs LH'd starters and maybe 20-30 RH'd starters.

 

This is assuming no injuries to any OF'er, DH or 1Bman.

[a700hitter]

I actually gave more context to that stat in an earlier post.

 

You claimed that during the only season Duda's HRs were bunched (3 years ago) highly influenced by his high BB rate. You claimed when Duda was not hitting HRs, he did little to help his team. You claimed his OBP was fueled only by his high BB rate. Talk about lack of context.

 

I offered clear evidence that during his longest stretch (41 games) of few HRs back in 2015, he hit .295 with a .388 OBP.

 

1) He was helping his team when he was not hitting HRs.

 

2) His OBP was not primarily fueled by a high BB% during the period you claimed he was "useless", apparently because some Mets fan told you it was so.

 

Did I get that context correct?

 

You got the context right for 1 stretch of games, but that was not true of the months where he hit .187 and .178. And after the first 41 games of that season, his batting average consistently plummeted for the remainder of that season. One stretch of games is not context. It neglected the trends of his season. Like I said, I am hoping that we don't get him, but if we get him, I will seek you out during the Duda disappearing acts.

[a700hitter]

That's a fair argument. I'm sure HRam would go ape s***, if he only played vs LH'd starters and maybe 20-30 RH'd starters.

 

This is assuming no injuries to any OF'er, DH or 1Bman.

As I said, I am not even addressing the selfish aspect of it. We have nothing to indicate that Duda or HanRam would perform well in limited roles. My recollection is that early on with the Mets that Duda struggled with a limited role. I remember him getting a pep talk from fellow USC alumn, Tom Seaver to boost his confidence and increase his playing time.

[moonslav59]

He's slow. He can't throw the ball-- similar to Hanley in that regard, and he has chronic injuries. You keep glossing over that one, because it is hard to find a stat for it.

 

I have not glossed over any of your points. I spoke to every one of them.

 

He is an average runner when compared to other 1Bmen.

 

He's close to an average defender when compared to any other 1Bman, and besides, he will be DH'ing for some of the time.

 

 

He has 2 bad hips, not one. Last spring training he needed shots in both hips to get him back on the field and a bad back. I am not a doctor, but these are usually degenerative situations that can cost lots of playing time.

 

This is the most worrisome part of signing him and probably the major reason he is projected to only get a one or two year deal at just $6M or so.

 

My biggest reason for suggesting Duda as a possible complimentary piece this winter is the fact that the risk is just one to two years and just $6M or so. That's about what we "risked" on Young and Moreland.

 

 

As for his speed, he is below average even for a first baseman, but probably not by much. That is not a strawman. I am just pointing out that he doesn't bring speed or good fielding to the table.

 

I've agreed he's about average on defense and base running.

 

You can tolerate hitting slumps more if the guy has a plus glove. And speed is an element that helps run production when you are getting on base during a HR drought. When he is not hitting HRs, his run production is substandard.

 

Speed is something very few 1Bmen bring to the table, at least to the point where it is a game-changer.

 

His defense is average.

 

His hitting slumps were only out of the ordinary for one of the last 3 full seasons, and even then, it was a HR slumps not a hitting or on base slumps.

[notin]

You got the context right for 1 stretch of games, but that was not true of the months where he hit .187 and .178. And after the first 41 games of that season, his batting average consistently plummeted for the remainder of that season. One stretch of games is not context. It neglected the trends of his season. Like I said, I am hoping that we don't get him, but if we get him, I will seek you out during the Duda disappearing acts.

 

Oooh. Drop ' em and measure!!

 

If the Sox do sign Duda, it's Dombrowski's fault. Not anyone on this board.

 

Most of the 1b options available after Santana and Hosmer are very bland and unappealing. At some point, a resurgent Alex Avila becomes a smarter depth option ( although his concussion history should dissuade a lot of teams.

 

I still prefer Santana, but I am warming up to Martinez. If the Sox do put Martinez in the OF, then 1b might be handled by whomever the Sox can get in a deal for Bradley...

[a700hitter]

He's slow. He can't throw the ball-- similar to Hanley in that regard, and he has chronic injuries. You keep glossing over that one, because it is hard to find a stat for it.

 

I have not glossed over any of your points. I spoke to every one of them.

 

He is an average runner when compared to other 1Bmen.

 

He's close to an average defender when compared to any other 1Bman, and besides, he will be DH'ing for some of the time.

 

 

He has 2 bad hips, not one. Last spring training he needed shots in both hips to get him back on the field and a bad back. I am not a doctor, but these are usually degenerative situations that can cost lots of playing time.

 

This is the most worrisome part of signing him and probably the major reason he is projected to only get a one or two year deal at just $6M or so.

 

My biggest reason for suggesting Duda as a possible complimentary piece this winter is the fact that the risk is just one to two years and just $6M or so. That's about what we "risked" on Young and Moreland.

 

 

As for his speed, he is below average even for a first baseman, but probably not by much. That is not a strawman. I am just pointing out that he doesn't bring speed or good fielding to the table.

 

I've agreed he's about average on defense and base running.

 

You can tolerate hitting slumps more if the guy has a plus glove. And speed is an element that helps run production when you are getting on base during a HR drought. When he is not hitting HRs, his run production is substandard.

 

Speed is something very few 1Bmen bring to the table, at least to the point where it is a game-changer.

 

His defense is average.

 

His hitting slumps were only out of the ordinary for one of the last 3 full seasons, and even then, it was a HR slumps not a hitting or on base slumps.

So you agree that he brings nothing to the table during his power outages that a replacement level player would not bring? Is that a goal in building a roster-- replacement level skill for 70-80% of the season with small stretches of above average performance. I'd rather teach Swihart to play first base and use his verstility to play other positions. He doesn't have Duda's HR power, but he will have equal or better skills than Duda in the other aspects of the game. I would prefer Swihart over Duda. If Swihart and Hanley can't produce, we could go after a big slow footed bat before the trading deadline. I just see no overall upside in Duda. I don't see him as a platoon player, nor do I see Hanley as a platoon player.

[a700hitter]

Oooh. Drop ' em and measure!!

 

If the Sox do sign Duda, it's Dombrowski's fault. Not anyone on this board.

 

Most of the 1b options available after Santana and Hosmer are very bland and unappealing. At some point, a resurgent Alex Avila becomes a smarter depth option ( although his concussion history should dissuade a lot of teams.

 

I still prefer Santana, but I am warming up to Martinez. If the Sox do put Martinez in the OF, then 1b might be handled by whomever the Sox can get in a deal for Bradley...

Of course that would be on DD. I didn't say that it would be Moon's fault. I would seek him out for the joy of Message board "I told you so." How did you interpret that I was assigning fault? Honestly, you really have a hard time understanding me.

[notin]

I'd prefer Swihart over Duda as well. Maybe Sam Travis, but I have reservations with him...

[a700hitter]

I'd prefer Swihart over Duda as well. Maybe Sam Travis, but I have reservations with him...

I would go with either one of them. The downside for Travis is that he is right-handed and not a platoon candidate with Hanley

[moonslav59]

Forget the HRs. Let's look at OPS by month:

(Only months with 60+ PAs are shown)

 

Duda:

2014: .773> .709>.956>1.006>.708>.841

2015: .915>.948>.576>.749>.976>.961

2016: .743>.704 (Injured)

2017: .931>.927>.896>.901>.702>.622

(Just 2 months out of 20 below .702.)

(6 months below .740.)

(11 months above .840)

 

Moreland:

2014: .710>.656 (Injured)

2015: .849>.839>.998>.643>.719>.794

2016: .700>.799>.700>.799>.874>.689

2017: .837>.853>.762> .435>1.061>.667

(5 out of 20 months below .702)

(8 months below .740)

(4 months above .840)

OBP

 

Duda:

2014: .333>.319>.380>.396>.291>381

2015: .427>.366>.312>.260>.389>.386

2016: .294>.300 (injury)

2017: .360>.378>.352>.333>.302>.230

 

Moreland:

2014: .307>.302 (injury)

2015: .393>.310>.362>.282>.330>.315

2016: .292>.320>.293>.320>.341>.290

2017: .360>.388>.300>.264>.390>.260

 

Putting them side by side from worst to best...

 

Duda/ Moreland

 

.230 .260

.260 .264

.291 .282

.294 .290

.300 .292

.302 .293

.312 .300

.319 .302

 

.333 .307

.333 .310

.352 .315

.360 .320

.366 .320

.378 .330

.380 .341

.381 .360

 

.386 .362

.389 .388

.396 .390

.427 .393

 

(Pretty close in the bottom 8 and top 4, but the middle 8 shows a significant differential between Moreland and Duda. This is OBP, not power or OPS.)

 

If I posted Morrison's ups and downs, you'd see so many lows you'd take the risk on Duda's hips on a one year deal..

 

 

Edited November 26, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

So you agree that he brings nothing to the table during his power outages that a replacement level player would not bring?

 

No. You forgot OBP, which is a huge factor in run scoring for a team.

 

 

... I just see no overall upside in Duda.

 

A .338 OBP is way better than replacement level.

 

Plus, I dispute your claim that Duda's Hrs come in bunches more than other power hitters with 25+ HR power.

 

JD Martinez had 17 Hrs in SEPT and over half his Hrs in the last 2 months of 2017.

 

Duda's Hrs were bunched in 2015, but not so much in 2014 or 2017.

[moonslav59]

I would go with either one of them. The downside for Travis is that he is right-handed and not a platoon candidate with Hanley

 

You claimed an HRam platoon is not a good choice.

 

Seems you are having the same "understanding" issues we have when trying to figure out you positions.

[a700hitter]

So you agree that he brings nothing to the table during his power outages that a replacement level player would not bring?

 

No. You forgot OBP, which is a huge factor in run scoring for a team.

 

 

... I just see no overall upside in Duda.

 

A .338 OBP is way better than replacement level.

 

Plus, I dispute your claim that Duda's Hrs come in bunches more than other power hitters with 25+ HR power.

 

JD Martinez had 17 Hrs in SEPT and over half his Hrs in the last 2 months of 2017.

 

Duda's Hrs were bunched in 2015, but not so much in 2014 or 2017.

2017 he just had a 2 1/2 month brutal slump.

[a700hitter]

You claimed an HRam platoon is not a good choice.

 

Seems you are having the same "understanding" issues we have when trying to figure out you positions.

I honestly don’t know what point you are trying to make with this post.