2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[oldtimer]

I like the "multiple role player" approach. The core of this team is Bradley-Betts-Benintendi-Bogaerts for non-pitchers. I get the appeal of Martinez, but he is a threat to that.

 

Another name worth mentioning as a role player might be Brandon Phillips. Grab him, Morrison, Cashner and a reliever like Tony Watson, Matt Belisle or, if you feel like a reclamation project, Trevor Rosenthal...

 

I would add Devers and Vazquez to the list of core players that are not in the pitcher category.

[oldtimer]

I think I'd rather have a bunch of shorter term deals than JD.

 

I almost mentioned Watson with my Duda, Nunez & Cashner suggestion.

 

I'd be fine with Morrison, Cashner, Watson & Phillips, but can we do that and still stay under the major penalty limit?

 

Duda will get less than Morrison, and may be had for a 1 year deal. Much more flexibility.

 

 

There is still a question mark on Pedey. We hear he is making good progress but I have a wait and see attitude on that one. I would pick up Nunez as an insurance policy if we can get him on a shorter term contract for reasonable money. With the FA market the way it is, who knows what it will take to sign some of these guys? It just appears as though baseball GMs have soured on giving big longterm contracts to guys in their 30's. Is this the new reality and do players have to adjust? It's almost like a case of who will blink first.

[Spudboy]

Dude is an on base machine though.

 

I thought that you must have been being sarcastic but I took a look. Holy s*** he does have a very high OBP and has been very consistent. In about 1300 MilB at bats his OBP is .401

[Spudboy]

We have the highest payroll in majors. Maybe we should live without another big contract.

 

I'm down with it.

[notin]

I think I'd rather have a bunch of shorter term deals than JD.

 

I almost mentioned Watson with my Duda, Nunez & Cashner suggestion.

 

I'd be fine with Morrison, Cashner, Watson & Phillips, but can we do that and still stay under the major penalty limit?

 

Duda will get less than Morrison, and may be had for a 1 year deal. Much more flexibility.

 

 

Duda or Morrison. I like Morrison better but both are really crapshoots.

 

If this off-season has shown anything in a way of trends, the most overpaid from that bunch might be Watson...

[notin]

I would add Devers and Vazquez to the list of core players that are not in the pitcher category.

 

I thought about Vazquez, but he's on a lower tier than that crowd. Devers has 222 career at bats; he isn't part of the core yet despite rampant optimisim...

[moonslav59]

Duda or Morrison. I like Morrison better but both are really crapshoots.

 

If this off-season has shown anything in a way of trends, the most overpaid from that bunch might be Watson...

 

Duda has a 4 year history of hitting for power. Morrison has one.

 

Duda has injury concerns, but we're talking DH.

 

I think they are both close, and I'd prefer Morrison, but Duda can be had for half the cost and maybe a third of the length.

[mvp 78]

I posted about a week ago that I have stopped coming home with the expectation that there would be any big baseball news. I now come home with quite the opposite expectation. It's kind of sad. LOL

 

There's nothing going on. Not sure why people are thinking a signing is imminent.

[mvp 78]

We have the highest payroll in majors. Maybe we should live without another big contract.

 

I too enjoy watching crappy offenses.

[mvp 78]

I thought about Vazquez, but he's on a lower tier than that crowd. Devers has 222 career at bats; he isn't part of the core yet despite rampant optimisim...

 

Out of all the Sox players who got into 50+ games, he had the highest OPS. He is their core.

[FredLynn]

There's nothing going on. Not sure why people are thinking a signing is imminent.

 

Define "imminent". Is it 24 hours? A week? Two? All these unsigned FAs are not going to be selling used cars come opening day.

[mvp 78]

Define "imminent". Is it 24 hours? A week? Two? All these unsigned FAs are not going to be selling used cars come opening day.

 

It doesn't seem like there is any reason to think a deal is going to go down today or tomorrow so it's weird to see people post stuff like "Man ....I can't even believe it ! Get off work and head home convinced there would be something .....anything ...... Nothing ? I'm not mad now I'm not disappointed ..I'm genuinely concerned now." There's been no indication that JD is close to signing. I think we're all stuck in a holding pattern for a while. Getting worked up everyday that it's finally going to be the day something will happen seems like wasted energy to me.

[harmony]

Out of all the Sox players who got into 50+ games, he had the highest OPS. He is their core.

After his 2017 call-up, Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers posted an OPS+ of 112 in 240 plate appearances.

 

After his 2012 call-up, Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks posted an OPS+ of 121 in 284 plate appearances.

 

Devers does not present the red flags that Middlebrooks showed, but we should temper our expectations.

 

Pulling a number out of the air without a sophisticated statistical analysis, I am 98 percent confident that Devers will have a better MLB career than Middlebrooks has. Although I expressed reservations about Middlebrooks after his rookie season, no one could have predicted how his career has played out to date.

 

Devers was three years younger than Middlebrooks was at the time of their MLB debuts, but here are their rookie lines:

 

RD 58 G, 240 PA, .284/.338/.482/.819, OPS+ 112, 34 R, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 3 SB

WM 75 G, 288 PA, .288/.325/.509/.835, OPS+ 121, 34 R., 15 HR, 54 RBI, 4 SB

 

RD BB% 7.9, K%, 23.8, ISO .198, BABIP .342, wRC+ 111, 0.9 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR

WM BB% 4.5, K% 24.5, ISO .221, BABIP .335, wRC+ 122, 1.9 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR

 

At third base:

 

RD 507.2 innings, -1 defensive runs saved, -12.7 UZR/150

WM 606.2 innings, -3 defensive runs saved, 2.4 UZR/150

Edited January 31, 2018 by harmony

[mvp 78]

After his 2017 call-up, Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers posted an OPS+ of 112 in 240 plate appearances.

 

After his 2012 call-up, Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks posted an OPS+ of 121 in 284 plate appearances.

 

Devers does not present the red flags that Middlebrooks showed, but we should temper our expectations.

 

Edgar is never getting into the HOF, you should temper your expectations.

[mvp 78]

http://draftingsleepers.com/forums/topic/2-key-reasons-rafael-devers-is-the-real-deal/

 

2 reasons Devers is the real deal

[mvp 78]

http://rotochamp.com/Baseball/Player.aspx?MLBAMID=646240

 

Devers 2018 projections

[mvp 78]

https://nesn.com/2018/01/red-sox-2018-projections-rafael-devers-breakout-coming-whats-next-for-david-price/

 

Breakout coming for Devers?

[mvp 78]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/11/boston_red_sox_projections_201.html

 

Bill James says 30 HR for Devers in 2018!

[mvp 78]

http://www.imaginarybrickwall.com/tag/rafael-devers/

 

Devers listed as top 11 for young players and prospects

[mvp 78]

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/264016712/2017-breakout-major-league-baseball-players

 

Rafael Devers emerged as an impact player in 58 games at third base for the Red Sox and is poised to become a star in Boston.

[mvp 78]

https://wtpsports.com/2018/01/21/david-ortiz-thinks-rafael-devers-is-the-future-of-the-red-sox/

 

David Ortiz thinks Devers is the future of the Red Sox

[harmony]

Reminds me of the Will Middlebrooks hype.

 

Except Rafael Devers is a better player.

[mvp 78]

Reminds me of the Will Middlebrooks hype.

 

Except Rafael Devers is a better player.

 

There was definitely not that kind of hype around WMB.

[mvp 78]

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=17122

 

Why WMB could be Overvalued

[mvp 78]

http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/2013/03/boston_red_sox_2013_questions.html

 

Middlebrooks has the strength to hit 30 home runs, that's not the issue. The real question is how often he makes contact, and how solid that contact is.

 

The 15 home runs are encouraging but here are two other 2012 stats that should cause concern:

 

Middlebrooks drew only 13 walks and he struck out 70 times. The Red Sox have always stressed the value of drawing walks and not striking out too much. Last season's squad strayed from that formula. The Red Sox were fifth in the American League in strikeouts and ranked 13th in drawing walks.

 

With the team trying to get back into the habit of striking out less and drawing more walks it isn't out of the question that a player such as Middlebrooks finds himself hitting home runs at a decreasing rate.

 

Making contact can mean hitting the ball to the opposite field, but that's generally not a great formula for producing a ton of home runs. Middlebrooks also hit 5 of his 15 home runs on the first pitch. Players looking to cut down on strikeouts and work more walks don't swing at the first pitch all that often.

[notin]

There was definitely not that kind of hype around WMB.

 

Not so sure.

 

On BDC, some people got upset when harmony compared Middlebrooks to Mark Reynolds. Turns out, he had a long way to go to be compared to Mark Reynolds. ..

[cp176]

There was definitely not that kind of hype around WMB.

 

Like Devers much MVP? lol If wasn't for that Bill James projection I would be with you. Just kidding. We will need his 30 home runs.

[harmony]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/11/boston_red_sox_projections_201.html

 

Bill James says 30 HR for Devers in 2018!

Bill James projected 32 home runs for Will Middlebrooks in 2014 (but Middlebrooks came up 30 home runs short):

 

https://nesn.com/2014/02/bill-james-will-middlebrooks-primed-for-monster-season-with-red-sox/

 

I am confident that Rafael Devers will be better than Will Middlebrooks ... but what do I know?

Edited January 31, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

If Devers can hit 30, maybe we could just sign Morrison or Duda.

[mvp 78]

Not so sure.

 

On BDC, some people got upset when harmony compared Middlebrooks to Mark Reynolds. Turns out, he had a long way to go to be compared to Mark Reynolds. ..

 

Effffffffffff BDC.