2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[sk7326]

No matter how you shake it our, Beni is a defensive downgrade to JBJ.

 

If Betts plays CF, we lose big time in RF with Beni vs Betts.

 

If Beni plays CF, like I feel he is better than him playing in RF, we step down on D in CF, even if Beni ends up being above average on D in CF.

 

I'm not against trading JBJ, even though he is one of my favorite Sox players.

 

That is certainly possible - this is an upside play ... it is the one thing that gets lost with dealing Bradley is certainty. At the same time, a core of under 25 guys comes with some of that uncertainty. Benintendi certainly has the chance to be a better total package than Bradley. But the guy to deal if you are moving somebody to improve the big league club, it's Bradley. A little older - valuable but probably without a ton more to go.

[moonslav59]

That is certainly possible - this is an upside play ... it is the one thing that gets lost with dealing Bradley is certainty. At the same time, a core of under 25 guys comes with some of that uncertainty. Benintendi certainly has the chance to be a better total package than Bradley. But the guy to deal if you are moving somebody to improve the big league club, it's Bradley. A little older - valuable but probably without a ton more to go.

 

I don't disagree. I was just addressing your apparent sugar-coating the defensive differential between Beni & JBJ.

 

I agree Beni is a better total package, has more upside, is less costly and has more years of team control.

 

He's not better on defense in CF or in RF. Someday, he may get close to JBJ on D, but I doubt he ever equal his defensive skill set.

[moonslav59]

And to be fair, Napoli was a sensible pickup. Victorino was kind of a lousy idea ... which worked out a billion times better than anybody had the right to expect. Yeah he only gave 1 good year of a 3 year contract, but what a year it was!

 

I was against the Vic trade for one major reason: the 3 years considering his age and likelihood of decline.

 

It's hard to crap on the deal, since he was a major factor in 2013, but his 3 year numbers certainly did not merit the contract.

[oldtimer]

I don't disagree. I was just addressing your apparent sugar-coating the defensive differential between Beni & JBJ.

 

I agree Beni is a better total package, has more upside, is less costly and has more years of team control.

 

He's not better on defense in CF or in RF. Someday, he may get close to JBJ on D, but I doubt he ever equal his defensive skill set.

 

 

No question in my mind that JBJ is durable and ranks among the top AL defensive CFs with Kevin Pillar and Kevin Kiermaier. Still, he is an irratic hitter and did not show improvement this year, and he is now at prime age. What I am hoping for is incremental improvement on a hollistic basis. Cora is now our manager and he will help select coaches going forward. They no doubt will discuss possible moves to improve the club and JBJ is one of those who may be involved. This Brannen kid is a 5 tool player and may be a CF of the future. The earliest we will see him is probably a sept call up. Please do not trade him away.

 

We may have to wait a year to make more substantial moves until Panda and Hanley's contracts free up another $40 mil, assuming Hanley's contract is not fulfilled for 2019. I know your suggesting Duda as a possible addition. I guess we will have to wait and see what Cora, his coaches and DD come up with. Doing nothing should not be an option.

[FredLynn]

...and a healthy Wright to a lesser degree.

 

 

First of all, injuries happen. There is no guarantee Price is going to make it through the full season; there is no guarantee Sale will make it through the season either. The Yankees were without Pineda all year. Yes, he is erratic at times, but he has the potential to be very good. Second, Wright was hardly anything to Wright home about (so to speak). His ERA was 4.70 from mid June on in 2016. Who knows who will be healthy and who will not; my post dealt with the current (2017) year. And the fact is that the Yankee pitching was almost as good as ours and their offense was better. I am not EXPECTING the current roster to make a huge leap in performance. Maybe they will; maybe they won't. I would not count on it. If I am DD I am looking for upgrades in the power department, which is our weakest link.

[harmony]

No question in my mind that JBJ is durable and ranks among the top AL defensive CFs with Kevin Pillar and Kevin Kiermaier. Still, he is an irratic hitter and did not show improvement this year, and he is now at prime age. What I am hoping for is incremental improvement on a hollistic basis. Cora is now our manager and he will help select coaches going forward. They no doubt will discuss possible moves to improve the club and JBJ is one of those who may be involved. This Brannen kid is a 5 tool player and may be a CF of the future. The earliest we will see him is probably a sept call up. Please do not trade him away.

Here is the SoxProspects write-up on 19-year-old outfielder Cole Brannen, who this year posted a .231/.383/.246/.630 line in 168 plate appearances in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/brannen-cole.htm

 

Brannon was 1.4 years younger than the average player in that league.

[sk7326]

I was against the Vic trade for one major reason: the 3 years considering his age and likelihood of decline.

 

It's hard to crap on the deal, since he was a major factor in 2013, but his 3 year numbers certainly did not merit the contract.

 

There was basically no evidence that there was a 2-win player inside there at his age and recent results, let alone a 6-win player. But hey - I'll take it!

[oldtimer]

Here is the SoxProspects write-up on 19-year-old outfielder Cole Brannen, who this year posted a .231/.383/.246/.630 line in 168 plate appearances in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/brannen-cole.htm

 

Brannon was 1.4 years younger than the average player in that league.

 

He is young and is a 5 tool guy. Very possible he can develop into a CF type in the future. Maybe I am a little too optimistic that it can occur by Sept., but he is one of the few in our system which has that kind of potential. He is 6' 170# right now but will probably get to 185 with maturity and gain power. Keep an eye on him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is the SoxProspects write-up on 19-year-old outfielder Cole Brannen, who this year posted a .231/.383/.246/.630 line in 168 plate appearances in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/brannen-cole.htm

 

Brannon was 1.4 years younger than the average player in that league.

 

Brannen is a 4 tool prospect. The thing about Brannen that always is a crap shoot is when a team drafts an athlete with hit projection and hope the hit tool progresses enough to allow them to use that athleticism. If you hit, then you've got a star. Very, very frequently, you don't hit. This isn't like a guy who throws 100mph or a hitter with now power.

[moonslav59]

First of all, injuries happen. There is no guarantee Price is going to make it through the full season; there is no guarantee Sale will make it through the season either. The Yankees were without Pineda all year. Yes, he is erratic at times, but he has the potential to be very good. Second, Wright was hardly anything to Wright home about (so to speak). His ERA was 4.70 from mid June on in 2016. Who knows who will be healthy and who will not; my post dealt with the current (2017) year. And the fact is that the Yankee pitching was almost as good as ours and their offense was better. I am not EXPECTING the current roster to make a huge leap in performance. Maybe they will; maybe they won't. I would not count on it. If I am DD I am looking for upgrades in the power department, which is our weakest link.

 

I realize we are bound to have injuries in 2018, and some might be to Price and better players than who got hurt in 2017. I get that.

 

I do not think that even taking that into consideration, it's unreasonable to expect more from our returning players. While Betts, Bogey, Bradley and Beni all declined from 2016 to 2017, at their ages, I think it is more likely they hit closer to 2016 (or better) than 2017. That could be a huge gain. Devers could do worse than 2017, but by playing 158 games instead of 58, we could see a big gain at 3B. I'm not expecting a gain from our post-prime guys, but there's only two of them (HRam & Pedey). It's possible we get more from one or both in 2017 than 2017, since HRam was off and Pedey missed time. Vaz could decline and Leon is a crap shoot. We are likely to replace Moreland & Young with someone better.

 

I'm probably higher on Wright than others, but I think he's better than the 25 starts from Fister, Johnson, Velazquez and Kendrick. I know Price could pitch less in 2018 than 2017, but there's hope he stays healthy. Porcello is a crap shoot. Pom is looking more solid. ERod is hurt. Sale has been a horse.

 

Our pen has a lot of returning arms. I can't imagine it being worse, but anything can happen.

 

Maybe I'm a homer. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I do feel that, overall, our returning players will do significantly better next year.

 

Age Returning Player

20 Devers

22 Beni

23 (Lin & Travis)

24 Betts, Bogey, ERod (DL) (Taylor)

25 (Swihart)

26 Vaz, Maddox (Johnson & Marrero

27 JBJ, C Smith, Barnes & Scott

28 Sale, Pom, Porcello, Workman, Leon (Velazquez)

29 Kimbrel, Kelly & Holt

 

31 Price

33 Pedey & HRam

 

Looking at just the ages, it's hard not to expect improvement, especially when so many had "off seasons" in 2017.

 

Of course, if our new free agents end up like HRam and Pablo then we'll probably be a wild card team next year.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I realize we are bound to have injuries in 2018, and some might be to Price and better players than who got hurt in 2017. I get that.

 

I do not think that even taking that into consideration, it's unreasonable to expect more from our returning players. While Betts, Bogey, Bradley and Beni all declined from 2016 to 2017, at their ages, I think it is more likely they hit closer to 2016 (or better) than 2017. That could be a huge gain. Devers could do worse than 2017, but by playing 158 games instead of 58, we could see a big gain at 3B. I'm not expecting a gain from our post-prime guys, but there's only two of them (HRam & Pedey). It's possible we get more from one or both in 2017 than 2017, since HRam was off and Pedey missed time. Vaz could decline and Leon is a crap shoot. We are likely to replace Moreland & Young with someone better.

 

I'm probably higher on Wright than others, but I think he's better than the 25 starts from Fister, Johnson, Velazquez and Kendrick. I know Price could pitch less in 2018 than 2017, but there's hope he stays healthy. Porcello is a crap shoot. Pom is looking more solid. ERod is hurt. Sale has been a horse.

 

Our pen has a lot of returning arms. I can't imagine it being worse, but anything can happen.

 

Maybe I'm a homer. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I do feel that, overall, our returning players will do significantly better next year.

 

Age Returning Player

20 Devers

22 Beni

23 (Lin & Travis)

24 Betts, Bogey, ERod (DL) (Taylor)

25 (Swihart)

26 Vaz, Maddox (Johnson & Marrero

27 JBJ, C Smith, Barnes & Scott

28 Sale, Pom, Porcello, Workman, Leon (Velazquez)

29 Kimbrel, Kelly & Holt

 

31 Price

33 Pedey & HRam

 

Looking at just the ages, it's hard not to expect improvement, especially when so many had "off seasons" in 2017.

 

Of course, if our new free agents end up like HRam and Pablo then we'll probably be a wild card team next year.

 

 

 

The one thing your kids showed was that they weren't ready to lead in 2017. With Papi gone and the onus on them, they s*** the bed. You must add an elite bat to take some pressure off Betts

[moonslav59]

The one thing your kids showed was that they weren't ready to lead in 2017. With Papi gone and the onus on them, they s*** the bed.

 

If 93 wins is s***ing the bed, then what of teams with less wins?

 

 

You must add an elite bat to take some pressure off Betts.

 

I totally agree. With maybe as much as $40M to spend this winter, I think DD makes a serious deal or signing to attempt to solve both problems: power clean-up hitter &

the leadership we need.

 

I'll be surprised if we miss out on Stanton, JD Martinez or Moustakas (or someone as good as Moose).

[sk7326]

The one thing your kids showed was that they weren't ready to lead in 2017. With Papi gone and the onus on them, they s*** the bed.

 

If 93 wins is s***ing the bed, then what of teams with less wins?

 

 

You must add an elite bat to take some pressure off Betts.

 

I totally agree. With maybe as much as $40M to spend this winter, I think DD makes a serious deal or signing to attempt to solve both problems: power clean-up hitter &

the leadership we need.

 

I'll be surprised if we miss out on Stanton, JD Martinez or Moustakas (or someone as good as Moose).

 

The Red Sox were the crappiest 93 win team in baseball history. The Yankees were the finest 91 win team ever.

[moonslav59]

the red sox were the crappiest 93 win team in baseball history. The yankees were the finest 91 win team ever.

 

lol.

[sk7326]

Seriously - the Red Sox won 93 games facing a pretty substantial amount of adversity. This was not a year where our projected starting 5 went out and made 130 starts ... this was not a year where we had pristine health. I know the narrative is cute to say that Ortiz left this team flailing in the sea. But the team won 2 less games, with much more adversity - and they won one more playoff game! Yeah they were crappy to Eck - but that does not speak to the product on the field.

[jacksonianmarch]

The one thing your kids showed was that they weren't ready to lead in 2017. With Papi gone and the onus on them, they s*** the bed.

 

If 93 wins is s***ing the bed, then what of teams with less wins?

 

 

You must add an elite bat to take some pressure off Betts.

 

I totally agree. With maybe as much as $40M to spend this winter, I think DD makes a serious deal or signing to attempt to solve both problems: power clean-up hitter &

the leadership we need.

 

I'll be surprised if we miss out on Stanton, JD Martinez or Moustakas (or someone as good as Moose).

 

The 93 wins were because your pitching was nails. You team finished 10th in the bigs in runs and 5th in the AL. They had been #1 in all of baseball in 2016. Your team lost 93 runs from 16 to 17. That is s***ing the bed IMO

[harmony]

J.D.Martinez may well be worth whatever 2018 salary he lands.

 

The JDM sweepstakes may be decided by the team that gives Martinez the most years.

 

Is this off-season of slim pickings, how many years are too many? Five years? Seven years?

Edited October 23, 2017 by harmony

[sk7326]

J:D. Martinez may well be worth whatever 2018 salary he lands.

 

The JDM sweepstakes may be decided by the team that gives Martinez the most years.

 

Is this off-season of slim pickings, how many years are too many? Five years? Seven years?

 

Five is okay but 3-4 is better. I am also curious how the market will be for pure sluggers. Will there be a squeeze like Encarnacion faced.

[jacksonianmarch]

Five is okay but 3-4 is better. I am also curious how the market will be for pure sluggers. Will there be a squeeze like Encarnacion faced.

 

JD wont feel the squeeze because he technically qualifies as an OFer. Also, his 2017 numbers were completely bonkers. 45HR in 119 games. If he played a 150 game season, he would have hit 56 homers. That kind of power is special. I know EE got squeezed a bit last year, but JD is 4 years younger and hence should command a much bigger and more lucrative offer

[sk7326]

JD wont feel the squeeze because he technically qualifies as an OFer. Also, his 2017 numbers were completely bonkers. 45HR in 119 games. If he played a 150 game season, he would have hit 56 homers. That kind of power is special. I know EE got squeezed a bit last year, but JD is 4 years younger and hence should command a much bigger and more lucrative offer

 

Of course, he didn't ... and he didn't in every season except for 2015. So that is interesting. He qualifies as an outfielder - but a very bad one. I think he will get 5 years - and if the Sox did it, I could live with it.

[moonslav59]

Seriously - the Red Sox won 93 games facing a pretty substantial amount of adversity. This was not a year where our projected starting 5 went out and made 130 starts ... this was not a year where we had pristine health. I know the narrative is cute to say that Ortiz left this team flailing in the sea. But the team won 2 less games, with much more adversity - and they won one more playoff game! Yeah they were crappy to Eck - but that does not speak to the product on the field.

 

We had identical 93-69 records in 2016 and 2017 not 2 less wins. Counting the playoffs, we did 1 win better in 2017 than with Papi in 2016.

[moonslav59]

The 93 wins were because your pitching was nails. You team finished 10th in the bigs in runs and 5th in the AL. They had been #1 in all of baseball in 2016. Your team lost 93 runs from 16 to 17. That is s***ing the bed IMO

 

Was allowing 26 less runs also s***ing the bed?

 

668 runs allowed would have been 2 runs from leading the AL last year.

 

We traded for Sale, instead of replacing Papi.

 

Yes, our offense was a let down. They failed to meet expectations by a lot.

 

I'll agree the offense "s*** the bed" as compared to 2016, but not the team as a whole.

 

Finishing 5th out of 15 teams is not really horrible, but when compared to 2016, it is.

[moonslav59]

JD games played vs EE is a complete mismatch.

 

JD: only over 123 games once in his career.

123, 158, 120 & 119 the last 4.

 

EE:Never under 128 games in the 6 years before becoming a FA last winter.

151, 142, 128, 146 & 160 the prior 5.

 

EE can probably play 1b as well as JD plays the OF.

[sk7326]

JD games played vs EE is a complete mismatch.

 

JD: only over 123 games once in his career.

123, 158, 120 & 119 the last 4.

 

EE:Never under 128 games in the 6 years before becoming a FA last winter.

151, 142, 128, 146 & 160 the prior 5.

 

EE can probably play 1b as well as JD plays the OF.

 

If you sign JD - or trade for Stanton ... THAT IS THE CONCERN ... there is a significant, troubling injury history with both ... that doesn't mean you don't do it. But there are real medical concerns which you need to be comfortable with.

[mvp 78]

If you sign JD - or trade for Stanton ... THAT IS THE CONCERN ... there is a significant, troubling injury history with both ... that doesn't mean you don't do it. But there are real medical concerns which you need to be comfortable with.

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/195689700/giancarlo-stanton-injury-marlins-potential_partner_3

 

At this point, Stanton's injury history is almost as well known as his ability to hit homers. This is the third consecutive season that Stanton has been unable to finish. In 2014, his last game was Sept. 11, when he was hit in the face by a visibly stricken Mike Fiers. Last year, Stanton's last game was June 26; a broken hand got him then. This year, it's a groin strain that stops his season on Aug. 13. These injuries are unconnected to each other, but when you stack them on top of past injuries in 2011 (hamstring, quadriceps), 2012 (knee, abdominal strain) and 2013 (hamstring, shoulder), it looks like Stanton is going to be some sort of sad baseball story, the superhuman talent who just couldn't stay on the field.

 

Stanton seems to have a lengthier history than JD.

[Spudboy]

Other than the bean ball what injury history does Stanton have exactly?

[moonslav59]

Stanton's games played blow JD Martinez away.

[mvp 78]

Stanton's games played blow JD Martinez away.

 

So?

 

JD didn't become a full time player until 2014.

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox were the crappiest 93 win team in baseball history. The Yankees were the finest 91 win team ever.

 

Post of the day. Good one!

[Kimmi]

J.D.Martinez may well be worth whatever 2018 salary he lands.

 

The JDM sweepstakes may be decided by the team that gives Martinez the most years.

 

Is this off-season of slim pickings, how many years are too many? Five years? Seven years?

 

Five years is too many, but it will likely be the price of admission. I'd be inclined to offer him 4 years at more money per year, and see if he bites. No way would I go more than 5 years.