Farrell

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, Vaz did improve, but he was not a top 8 PA player last year.

 

Holt was a top 8 player in 2015, so I used him in that comp.

 

I realize I selected the cutoff of PAs for maximum affect with my argument. One could claim 9 of our top 10 players declined, if I counted Vaz and Beni.

 

Interesting how the only actual top 10 guy who improved this year was Travis Shaw, who was not managed by JF. Papi retired. Young was 10th and also declined by a lot.

 

I'm okay with arguing about the reasons for the massive decline, or if JF is to blame for any part of it, but I cannot agree that it was anything less than massive.

 

Listed in order of 2016 PAs

Betts .897> .803 (-94)

Bogey .802> .746 (-56)

Pedey .825> .760 (-65)

J B J .835> .726 (-109)

Ortiz .1.021>>> retired

HRam .866> .750 (-116)

TShaw .726> Milwaukee (.862 up 136)

Holt .705> . 548 (-157)

Leon .845> .644 (-101)

Young .850> .709 (-141)

Vaz .585> .735 (+150)

 

Again, the top 8 returning players- by 2016 PAs- declined by more than 55 points!

 

6 of 8 declined by over 94.

 

Vaz, at #9 last year went up 150 points. Shaw at #7 went up with another team.

 

These numbers are frightening. Yes, there are excuses for Holt, Leon, Pedey & HRam, but one still could have done slightly better or much closer to 2016 than they ended up doing. Oh for 4 was probably against the odds. Then, couple that with the fact that all the young guys declined as well, and to me, the word "massive" fits the bill.

 

(BTW, the next guy, #11 Beni, declined too, but the 2016 sample size was very small.)

 

 

There was no change in the manager or hitting coach between the 2 years so it doesn't really make much sense to tie the decline to the coaching.

 

The one glaring change between the 2 years was the retirement of Ortiz.

 

And the hitters that came in after not being with us in 2016-Moreland, Devers and Nunez-all did well.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe there really is some truth to the old adage about hitting being contagious.

[Bellhorn04]

Take a look at these crazy drop-offs from 2013 to 2014. In some cases the 2014 numbers include numbers with other teams, but I don't think that really alters the point. Every single one of them had drop-offs, many of them massive ones.

 

Salty 804-681

Napoli 842-789

Pedroia 787-712

Drew 777-536

Gomes 771-657

Ellsbury 781-747

Vic 801-685

Ortiz 959-873

Nava 831-706

Carp 885-519

Iggy 785-missed 2014-717 in 2015

[moonslav59]

Take a look at these crazy drop-offs from 2013 to 2014. In some cases the 2014 numbers include numbers with other teams, but I don't think that really alters the point. Every single one of them had drop-offs, many of them massive ones.

 

Salty 804-681

Napoli 842-789

Pedroia 787-712

Drew 777-536

Gomes 771-657

Ellsbury 781-747

Vic 801-685

Ortiz 959-873

Nava 831-706

Carp 885-519

Iggy 785-missed 2014-717 in 2015

 

That was pretty big as well. Holt had the 5th most PAs in 2014, but just over 70 in 2013, so I cans ee why he was not included.

 

Carp only had 103 in 2014.

 

Overall, that team was much older, so expectations were for many to decline, but it was pretty darn scary, too.

[Kimmi]

Take a look at these crazy drop-offs from 2013 to 2014. In some cases the 2014 numbers include numbers with other teams, but I don't think that really alters the point. Every single one of them had drop-offs, many of them massive ones.

 

Salty 804-681

Napoli 842-789

Pedroia 787-712

Drew 777-536

Gomes 771-657

Ellsbury 781-747

Vic 801-685

Ortiz 959-873

Nava 831-706

Carp 885-519

Iggy 785-missed 2014-717 in 2015

 

That was the Year of the Enigma!!!

[Northern Star]

That was the Year of the Enigma!!!

 

I thought that was 2015. Time flies...

[moonslav59]

There was no change in the manager or hitting coach between the 2 years so it doesn't really make much sense to tie the decline to the coaching.

 

The one glaring change between the 2 years was the retirement of Ortiz.

 

And the hitters that came in after not being with us in 2016-Moreland, Devers and Nunez-all did well.

 

Yes, indeed.

 

I'm not really sure how much credit or blame a manager should be assigned when players exceed or fall short of expectation or normal age curve productivity.

 

I do recall JF getting a lot of props for the high performances of so many players in 2013 (actually not a whole lot or returning players did better did better than 2012).

 

I'm grateful we won the division and do not need to play-in and waste a Sale start.

[Kimmi]

I really think a lot of the hitting woes were due to players trying to do too much in the absence of Papi.

[Bellhorn04]

I thought that was 2015. Time flies...

 

No, 2015 was the year of 'Who's the Ace'?

[Bellhorn04]

I think I read that the 2015 rotation even had Who's the Ace? t-shirts made up. It was all quite amusing until the season started.

[moonslav59]

I really think a lot of the hitting woes were due to players trying to do too much in the absence of Papi.

 

Does that mean you expect a return to "normalcy", whatever that is, next year?

 

Will signing JD Martinez take away some of that excessive drive to do better and better?

 

Would signing EE have done the trick this year (with or without Moreland)?

 

[moonslav59]

I think I read that the 2015 rotation even had Who's the Ace? t-shirts made up. It was all quite amusing until the season started.

 

Yeah, lots of wings and prayers in the rotation, but we did have the following year's Cy Young winner, Buch with a 3.26 ERA and ERod coming in at 3.85 (which is better than this year).

 

We did have 5 guys with 245+ PAs and over a .797 OPS.

 

Man, that year sucked.

 

[devildavid]

Even one of our resident statisticians said a few days ago,

 

Pom stepped it up and pitched like an ace when we really needed an ace performance. The offense stepped it up too.

 

If the ability to "step it up" isn't almost the very definition of "clutch', I don't know what is! Sheesh

 

Stepped it up is meaningless figure of speech after the fact subjective description of something that exceeded expectations. Saying it doesn't prove a player willed himself to a better performance or that clutch exists. There is no ability to step it up. There is fluctuation on how well a player can utilize their talents in each individual, discrete performance.

[devildavid]

Well, you see, Kimmi and the SABRmetricians say clutch exists...but isn't a repeatable skill.

 

It isn't a skill at all.

[Northern Star]

No, 2015 was the year of 'Who's the Ace'?

 

Oh, God, I'd forgotten about that.

[S5Dewey]

Stepped it up is meaningless figure of speech after the fact subjective description of something that exceeded expectations. Saying it doesn't prove a player willed himself to a better performance or that clutch exists. There is no ability to step it up. There is fluctuation on how well a player can utilize their talents in each individual, discrete performance.

 

You certainly are entitled to your opinion. I only wish that if statisticians are going to have that opinion they'd stop talking about being able to "step it up" like it actually exists.

 

I'm old. I confuse easily. Especially when people make statements that are in conflict with what they've said they believe.

[S5Dewey]

It isn't a skill at all.

 

I'd like to lock some of these sabermaticians in a room with a bunch of people who've played the game at high levels and see which group can convince the other about "clutch".

[devildavid]

You certainly are entitled to your opinion. I only wish that if statisticians are going to have that opinion they'd stop talking about being able to "step it up" like it actually exists.

 

I'm old. I confuse easily. Especially when people make statements that are in conflict with what they've said they believe.

 

This is not about belief. It is about facts. What facts demonstrate that a particular hitter is clutch? Any hitter can come through in the clutch. But all those who do are not called clutch hitters. What is the evidence of a hitter being defined as a clutch hitter?

 

Yaz was clutch in 1967 over multiple games at the end of the season. Did he repeat that type of performance over the entirety of his career? Did having Yaz at the plate in key moments work so much more than it didn't that Yaz is defined as clutch?

 

Joe DiMaggio would purposely expand his strike zone when the chance came to drive in big runs. Is this a demonstration of clutch skill? I guess it depends on how often it worked vs. how often it failed.

 

Ted Williams was insistent on his personal strike zone and would never expand it based on game situation. Is this a clutch skill? Or did Williams strict approach create the appearance of clutch because it increased his chances of getting a hit regardless of the game situation?

[devildavid]

I'd like to lock some of these sabermaticians in a room with a bunch of people who've played the game at high levels and see which group can convince the other about "clutch".

 

It still wouldn't make them right nor change my position.

[devildavid]

I really think a lot of the hitting woes were due to players trying to do too much in the absence of Papi.

 

My view is that they just didn't perform to our expectations. But we really don't know what to expect from this young core of hitters. It is way too early in their careers. They all have talent. But they still have a lot to learn. It takes study, practice, and experience to develop hitting smarts. Papi had that in spades, but he knew there was always more to learn.

[moonslav59]

This is not about belief. It is about facts. What facts demonstrate that a particular hitter is clutch? Any hitter can come through in the clutch. But all those who do are not called clutch hitters. What is the evidence of a hitter being defined as a clutch hitter?

 

Yaz was clutch in 1967 over multiple games at the end of the season. Did he repeat that type of performance over the entirety of his career? Did having Yaz at the plate in key moments work so much more than it didn't that Yaz is defined as clutch?

 

Joe DiMaggio would purposely expand his strike zone when the chance came to drive in big runs. Is this a demonstration of clutch skill? I guess it depends on how often it worked vs. how often it failed.

 

Ted Williams was insistent on his personal strike zone and would never expand it based on game situation. Is this a clutch skill? Or did Williams strict approach create the appearance of clutch because it increased his chances of getting a hit regardless of the game situation?

 

Nominate for "Post of the Year".

[Slasher9]

This is not about belief. It is about facts. What facts demonstrate that a particular hitter is clutch? Any hitter can come through in the clutch. But all those who do are not called clutch hitters. What is the evidence of a hitter being defined as a clutch hitter?

 

Yaz was clutch in 1967 over multiple games at the end of the season. Did he repeat that type of performance over the entirety of his career? Did having Yaz at the plate in key moments work so much more than it didn't that Yaz is defined as clutch?

 

Joe DiMaggio would purposely expand his strike zone when the chance came to drive in big runs. Is this a demonstration of clutch skill? I guess it depends on how often it worked vs. how often it failed.

 

Ted Williams was insistent on his personal strike zone and would never expand it based on game situation. Is this a clutch skill? Or did Williams strict approach create the appearance of clutch because it increased his chances of getting a hit regardless of the game situation?

 

Ted wasn't clutch. david Ortiz was.

[moonslav59]

My view is that they just didn't perform to our expectations. But we really don't know what to expect from this young core of hitters. It is way too early in their careers. They all have talent. But they still have a lot to learn. It takes study, practice, and experience to develop hitting smarts. Papi had that in spades, but he knew there was always more to learn.

 

I totally get how young players have much to learn. The "age curve" is rarely a perfect bell curve. The fact that all our young players sans Vaz all took serious dives this year is surprising enough, but for them to all do it at the same time all our vets did, too- none of whom are significantly past prime- is mind-boggling to me.

 

I know the law of averages will come up with oh for 8 at some point when spinning the wheel, but still...

 

I guess one could be equally amazed that a team with all 8 of its returning hitters going into steep decline, and their Cy Young starter turning to mush could still managing to win the division.

[S5Dewey]

This is not about belief. It is about facts. What facts demonstrate that a particular hitter is clutch? Any hitter can come through in the clutch. But all those who do are not called clutch hitters. What is the evidence of a hitter being defined as a clutch hitter?

 

Yaz was clutch in 1967 over multiple games at the end of the season. Did he repeat that type of performance over the entirety of his career? Did having Yaz at the plate in key moments work so much more than it didn't that Yaz is defined as clutch?

 

Joe DiMaggio would purposely expand his strike zone when the chance came to drive in big runs. Is this a demonstration of clutch skill? I guess it depends on how often it worked vs. how often it failed.

 

Ted Williams was insistent on his personal strike zone and would never expand it based on game situation. Is this a clutch skill? Or did Williams strict approach create the appearance of clutch because it increased his chances of getting a hit regardless of the game situation?

 

That's all very nice, but it didn't respond to my post. As I said,

"You certainly are entitled to your opinion. I only wish that if statisticians are going to have that opinion they'd stop talking about being able to "step it up" like it actually exists.

 

I'm old. I confuse easily. Especially when people make statements that are in conflict with what they've said they believe."

[S5Dewey]

It still wouldn't make them right nor change my position.

 

Arrogant much?

[moonslav59]

Ted wasn't clutch. david Ortiz was.

 

Huh?

 

"Late & Close"

Teddy 1.071

Papi .870

 

" High Leverage"

Teddy 1.090

Papi .943

 

Overall:

Teddy 1.116

Papi .931

 

 

 

[a700hitter]

It isn't a skill at all.

It isn't. It would be like saying calmness under pressure is a skill. It is an attribute as is clutch. Edited October 3, 2017 by a700hitter

[SoxHop]

It isn't. It would be like saying calmness under pressure is a skill. It is an attribute as is clutch.

 

That's really interesting when you put it that way. It makes me think of military piloting school. Some fail out. And they are measuring that stuff probably to he highest degree possible. Some don't cut it.

[Spudboy]

You certainly are entitled to your opinion. I only wish that if statisticians are going to have that opinion they'd stop talking about being able to "step it up" like it actually exists.

 

I'm old. I confuse easily. Especially when people make statements that are in conflict with what they've said they believe.

 

Nah. The data says that you have mis-remembered!

[Spudboy]

It isn't. It would be like saying calmness under pressure is a skill. It is an attribute as is clutch.

 

That is actually a pretty good way of putting it.