Jose Bautista

[bosoxmal]

True enough, but there are a couple of things to think about also.

 

We're not going to lose ALL of the players we currently have. At least I hope not! It's going to be hard-to-impossible to retain them all but some will be re-signed somehow. The FO is just going to have to be judicious about which ones they sign and which ones they let go. There's at least some sort of a 'rotation', where they're not all coming off at the same time!

 

And.. it may not be realistic to think that we're going to be in the WS every year. I mean... nobody else is. And if we can pull out a couple of appearances and at least one ring in 2017-2020 - not unrealistic when looking at our roster and who's coming off/when - we could probably survive a couple of years when we weren't there as long as we remain competitive.

 

I still think the future is bright, even into the mid 2020's. And I wouldn't begin to predict what the team will be after that. That's 8 years down the road, the equivalent of 2009 when looking backward and look how much has changed since then.

The future is very bright; you're right on! I have several concerns, however, but they can easily be overcome. One is with JBJ, and the other is with Kimbrel. Kinbrel reminds me of Dick Radatz. When he was firing on all cylinders, there was no one better, When he lost his fastball. (It was still 95 but unable to find the plate) Kimbrel looked a lot like that several times last year. Inconsistency is not a trait we want to see out of a closer. Or, a center fielder for that matter.

[notin]

The QO system was pretty broken.

 

The Type A Type B system did make sense. You sign a free agent away fromaanother team and get a pick. It's like a trade.

 

And I like the idea of the losing a player getting a sandwich pick. But the whole idea of losing a first round pick for signing any free agent is nothing but a penalty. It's MLB saying " I see you spent a lot of money to improve your team, stay competitive, and appease your fan base. How dare you!! We havecconsequences for that!"

[S5Dewey]

The future is very bright; you're right on! I have several concerns, however, but they can easily be overcome. One is with JBJ, and the other is with Kimbrel. Kinbrel reminds me of Dick Radatz. When he was firing on all cylinders, there was no one better, When he lost his fastball. (It was still 95 but unable to find the plate) Kimbrel looked a lot like that several times last year. Inconsistency is not a trait we want to see out of a closer. Or, a center fielder for that matter.

 

LOL You had to throw in that bit about JBJ, Didn't you? I was with you until then!!

 

How are you doing? I was getting concerned when you hadn't posted for several days. I hope you're feeling well. I got my ST ticket application recently and I'll be there in March. What's the chances of our getting together for a game?

[notin]

The future is very bright; you're right on! I have several concerns, however, but they can easily be overcome. One is with JBJ, and the other is with Kimbrel. Kinbrel reminds me of Dick Radatz. When he was firing on all cylinders, there was no one better, When he lost his fastball. (It was still 95 but unable to find the plate) Kimbrel looked a lot like that several times last year. Inconsistency is not a trait we want to see out of a closer. Or, a center fielder for that matter.

 

Most players go through hot and cold stretches, and Bradley is no exception. Fans like to say things likr "but he only had a .596 OPS in August" as an excuse to ignore the overall performance. And with a player like Bradley, offense is the lesser part of his game....

[Kimmi]

To me, our biggest hope for the long term is not in rebuilding the farm to close to what it just was, that's nearly impossible; my hope is that we can just keep all our young players beyond their last year of current team control.

 

Dombrowski should shortly start turning his attention to extending some of our youngsters. I don't think it will be possible to retain all of them, but extending some of them would certainly help our longer term outlook.

[Kimmi]

How far are you from Ft Myers? it'll be about 82 here today. Still shorts weather.

 

I'm in Virginia. Too far from Ft. Myers. Winter has not officially begun, and I am already ready for shorts and flip flop weather to return. LOL

[sk7326]

The Rockies are adding players, not subtracting. So Gonzalez, whom they turned down offers for at the deadline last season, will probably cost a lot more than one late first round pick.

 

Plus he's not the same hitter away from Coors...

 

He is on a one year deal and they signed Ian Desmond who has not position to play

[sk7326]

The QO system was pretty broken.

 

The Type A Type B system did make sense. You sign a free agent away fromaanother team and get a pick. It's like a trade.

 

And I like the idea of the losing a player getting a sandwich pick. But the whole idea of losing a first round pick for signing any free agent is nothing but a penalty. It's MLB saying " I see you spent a lot of money to improve your team, stay competitive, and appease your fan base. How dare you!! We havecconsequences for that!"

 

I think the new CBA fixes this. The Type A/B system was flawed in that how do you determine that. The QO system is more sensible than that - but still FA should be separate from the draft.

[sk7326]

I'm in Virginia. Too far from Ft. Myers. Winter has not officially begun, and I am already ready for shorts and flip flop weather to return. LOL

 

Me too (also in VA) - have not surrendered to the big coat yet, but it was hard

[Spudboy]

Me too (also in VA) - have not surrendered to the big coat yet, but it was hard

 

Lol. I know how you feel. I made the move to my winter coat on Friday.

 

I hate really cold weather!

[S5Dewey]

Lol. I know how you feel. I made the move to my winter coat on Friday.

 

I hate really cold weather!

 

You get no sympathy. I have 6" of new snow in my driveway. BUT... I don't live in Buffalo - and if you saw the NFL game yesterday you know what I mean!

[moonslav59]

The future is very bright; you're right on! I have several concerns, however, but they can easily be overcome. One is with JBJ, and the other is with Kimbrel. Kinbrel reminds me of Dick Radatz. When he was firing on all cylinders, there was no one better, When he lost his fastball. (It was still 95 but unable to find the plate) Kimbrel looked a lot like that several times last year. Inconsistency is not a trait we want to see out of a closer. Or, a center fielder for that matter.

 

I'm not sure, if you can or should count JBJ's slow career start as a slump or "bad streak". It could have just meant he was called up too early, or he took a long time to make rookie adjustments. If you discount his poor MLB start, there's little evidence he's an overly streaky or "inconsistent" hitter when compared to other Sox hitters.

 

2016 APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

JBJ .807>1.175>.805>.839>.651>.731

Betts .757>.927>.792>1.068>1.086>.762

Bogey .785>1.017>.815>.830>.599>.750

Papi 1.071>1.180>1.039>.903>.912>.1.017

Ram .696>.842>.720>.940>.962>.1.045

Ped .846>.870>.724>.862>.916>.742

 

Bogey had the worst month of an of our core players. He also had 3 months below .800 to JBJ's two. Betts had 3 months below .800 and three above .925. One could argue that he is more inconsistent. HanRam had a month under .700 and even Pedey had 2 months below .745- same as JBJ.

 

JBJ had one bad month and one so-so month this year. I'm not ready to call him streaky, yet.

 

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski should shortly start turning his attention to extending some of our youngsters. I don't think it will be possible to retain all of them, but extending some of them would certainly help our longer term outlook.

 

Imagine keeping everyone at these costs 2020-2021 or replacing them with top level FA players:

 

Price $31M (assuming he does not opt out)

Betts $30M+ (2021>)

Porcello $30M+ (2020)

Sale $30M+

Bradley $24M+ (2021)

Ramirez $20M+ (2020)

Kimbrel $20M+ (2019>)

 

Maybe Devers can replace Pablo and Travis for HanRam, but if only Devers steps up, keeping or replacing just the 7 players above could cost over $190M.

 

One can imagine trying to do without replacing HanRam in kind through free agency, so that would bring the number down to $170M.

 

The supporting cast is perhaps an equal issue. Pedey will be older. Pom, Buch and much of the pen will be different or more costly.

 

 

 

[southpaw777]

Our last few picks in the mid to late 20's:

 

2014: Chavis 26

2012: Marrero 24

2011: Swihart 26

2010: Vitek 20

2009: Fuentes 28

2008: Kelly 30

2006: Jason Place 27

2006: D Bard 28

2005: Ellsbury 23

2005: Hansen 26

 

 

They got a lot from supplemental rounds...Kopech, JBJ, Owens, etc...

There are some interesting players from this years draft past round one...some good talent. Im really not too concerned with drafting right now. I think there will be a couple gems, along with some good Potential MLB player over the next three years that the Sox draft. I also think DD will make some trades to replenish the system as well...

I guess im not as worried about our future because Ive seen how quickly a farm system can rebuild thru draft and trades.

[notin]

He is on a one year deal and they signed Ian Desmond who has not position to play

 

Desmond didn't have a position in Texas either and they found one for him. The plan reportedly is to use Desmond at first base, where he replaces such illuminaries as Mark Reynolds and Ben Paulsen....

[notin]

They got a lot from supplemental rounds...Kopech, JBJ, Owens, etc...

There are some interesting players from this years draft past round one...some good talent. Im really not too concerned with drafting right now. I think there will be a couple gems, along with some good Potential MLB player over the next three years that the Sox draft. I also think DD will make some trades to replenish the system as well...

I guess im not as worried about our future because Ive seen how quickly a farm system can rebuild thru draft and trades.

 

The Sox have devastated their system to the point where perennial whipping boy Trey Ball is on the cusp of being a top ten prospect.

 

I don't expect it to be rebuilt rapidly, simply because Dombrowski hasn't shown the ability to do anything like that in the past since he was with Florida. Who is the best Tigers' prospect to come up since Verlander arrived 12 years ago?

 

However, he has built a team capable of being very competitive for the next 3 seasons.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have devastated their system to the point where perennial whipping boy Trey Ball is on the cusp of being a top ten prospect.

 

You're right!

 

If you just move everyone up to fill the vacant slots on soxprospects.com, here's our new top 10:

 

1. Beni (will likely graduate this year)

2. Devers

3. Groome

4. Travis

5. Johnson (soon to be 27 years old)

6. Hernandez (going to turn 25)

7. Dalbec

8. Chatham

9. Ockimey (raw)

10. Chavis

11. Longhi

12. Raudes

13. T Ball

 

[S5Dewey]

Sorry, but I don't understand all the angst about this. The system top to bottom has what it has for talent and I'd rather see players like Beni, JBJ, Mookie, ERod, Vaz, etc. in Boston than being in Pawtucket so we could brag about how good our minor league system is. Because those ARE our options. Edited December 13, 2016 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

Sorry, but I don't understand all the angst about this. The system top to bottom has what it has for talent and I'd rather see players like Beni, JBJ, Mookie, ERod, Vaz, etc. in Boston than being in Pawtucket so we can brag about how good our minor league system is. Because those ARE our options.

 

I think we could take back the Pom trade and hardly affect our odds at winning a ring this year, plus we'd be comfortably under the limit, so we could keep Buch.

 

Espi could be ready to replace Porcello 4 years from now. (Owens, Johnson and eventually Groome may replace Buch.)

[bosoxmal]

I agree! I can't understand why they'd even think about it.

[sk7326]

The Sox have devastated their system to the point where perennial whipping boy Trey Ball is on the cusp of being a top ten prospect.

 

I don't expect it to be rebuilt rapidly, simply because Dombrowski hasn't shown the ability to do anything like that in the past since he was with Florida. Who is the best Tigers' prospect to come up since Verlander arrived 12 years ago?

 

However, he has built a team capable of being very competitive for the next 3 seasons.

 

Devastated is a bit much. The Top 10 is thinner than it has been - but the Red Sox had an uncommonly strong one. They still have significant star ceiling in the top 5.

 

Now the challenge is to replenish - the new international signing rules will make it difficult - although pool space can be traded. The Red Sox will have to have keen eyes for interesting signability picks. Do the Red Sox still have the scouting that they had before to make the difficult talent and character calls. (like the one which got Mookie Betts in the 5th round)

 

You have to be happy with the moves I think - the team has a significant window to do something special ... but having a core of homegrown stars is cool, and I'd still like to have a steady source of that. Dombrowski has built good farm systems also - ultimately whether he does is Henry's call.

[notin]

The Sox have devastated their system to the point where perennial whipping boy Trey Ball is on the cusp of being a top ten prospect.

 

You're right!

 

If you just move everyone up to fill the vacant slots on soxprospects.com, here's our new top 10:

 

1. Beni (will likely graduate this year)

2. Devers

3. Groome

4. Travis

5. Johnson (soon to be 27 years old)

6. Hernandez (going to turn 25)

7. Dalbec

8. Chatham

9. Ockimey (raw)

10. Chavis

11. Longhi

12. Raudes

13. T Ball

 

 

 

And considering Benintendi and probably Hernandez on likely to be on the MLB roster, you could probably bump a few people up a slot or two. Ball comes in at 11 when you look at it that way.

 

Not to mention, Johnson is reaching an age where "prospect" needs to be changed to "suspect." Do that, and Ball makes the top ten. So I guess it becomes a bit difficult to rail against the horrible and devastating pick that Ball was while still saying we have a great farm system left.

 

For the next 3 years, this won't matter much at all. After that, the long term future is not so bright. And while a lot of people like to say "I don't care about 2021, if the Sox win now it will be worth it," they are lying. We all saw plenty of posters who couldn't handle 2014 right after a ring in 2013...

[notin]

Sorry, but I don't understand all the angst about this. The system top to bottom has what it has for talent and I'd rather see players like Beni, JBJ, Mookie, ERod, Vaz, etc. in Boston than being in Pawtucket so we could brag about how good our minor league system is. Because those ARE our options.

 

No they are not.

 

Benintendi, Betts and everyone mentioned including the massively overvalued Vazquez were all on the 25 man roster at some point in 2016 when we had the terrific farm system. Vazquz is the only name who wasn't there at the end of the year, and I don't worry so much about the status of the backup catcher position as a lot of people do...

[moonslav59]

And considering Benintendi and probably Hernandez on likely to be on the MLB roster, you could probably bump a few people up a slot or two. Ball comes in at 11 when you look at it that way.

 

Not to mention, Johnson is reaching an age where "prospect" needs to be changed to "suspect." Do that, and Ball makes the top ten. So I guess it becomes a bit difficult to rail against the horrible and devastating pick that Ball was while still saying we have a great farm system left.

 

For the next 3 years, this won't matter much at all. After that, the long term future is not so bright. And while a lot of people like to say "I don't care about 2021, if the Sox win now it will be worth it," they are lying. We all saw plenty of posters who couldn't handle 2014 right after a ring in 2013...

 

Yes, and most were clamoring for prospect trades, because of 3 last place finishes in 4 years. What's going to happen, if we finish in last place in 2021 but have no prospects to trade?

 

They will be calling for DD's head and blaming him for not having a strong farm.

[notin]

Devastated is a bit much. The Top 10 is thinner than it has been - but the Red Sox had an uncommonly strong one. They still have significant star ceiling in the top 5.

 

Now the challenge is to replenish - the new international signing rules will make it difficult - although pool space can be traded. The Red Sox will have to have keen eyes for interesting signability picks. Do the Red Sox still have the scouting that they had before to make the difficult talent and character calls. (like the one which got Mookie Betts in the 5th round)

 

You have to be happy with the moves I think - the team has a significant window to do something special ... but having a core of homegrown stars is cool, and I'd still like to have a steady source of that. Dombrowski has built good farm systems also - ultimately whether he does is Henry's call.

 

Dombrowski did have a great draft last year, but he realy hasn't built great farm systems since he was in Florida and had perennial top 5 picks. Granted, it's not a given to get a good farm system that way, but it does make things easier.

 

Right now, the Sox don't really have a great farm system top to bottom. Devers has been scouted to varying degrees by various agencies. Keith Law, for example, loves him. BA not so much. We shall see what it holds. Groome, Chatham and Dalbec are in the top ten, but really all were drafted in 2016 and there will be attrition as one or more of them simply don't pan out. No one seems to like Ball, although drafting him did allow the Sox to sign Longhi, so hopefully one of them works out.

 

Really, how many guys in the top ten do you expect to make the majors? Or become viable trade bait a la Moncada/Dubon/Kopech/etc. in the next 2 or 3 years?

 

This system won't be very good. It does happen, and replenishing it isn't as easy as many want to believe.

 

The biggest problem I had with Cherington is he didn't like to deal any prospects. Dombrowski is the polar opposite, dealing as many as possible (justifying his reputation). While I like this team, I also like a nice balance between the two extremes. Prospects right now are not worth what they were in trades 2 years ago, and this will handicap the Sox ability going forward just as much as not having a pipeline of players....

[notin]

Yes, and most were clamoring for prospect trades, because of 3 last place finishes in 4 years. What's going to happen, if we finish in last place in 2021 but have no prospects to trade?

 

They will be calling for DD's head and blaming him for not having a strong farm.

 

Even I clamored for prospect trades. As costly as it was, I like the Sale trade. And even the Thornburg trade was probably a good one. The trades for Kimbrel and Pomeranz not so much. I do think Dombrowski has a tendency to overvalue the role of closer. And Pomeranz was just a silly target to go so heavy on...

[moonslav59]

The biggest problem I had with Cherington is he didn't like to deal any prospects. Dombrowski is the polar opposite, dealing as many as possible (justifying his reputation). While I like this team, I also like a nice balance between the two extremes. Prospects right now are not worth what they were in trades 2 years ago, and this will handicap the Sox ability going forward just as much as not having a pipeline of players....

 

I think Ben would have traded several big prospects had he stayed but certainly not as many.

 

Dombrowski did have a great draft last year, but he realy hasn't built great farm systems since he was in Florida and had perennial top 5 picks. Granted, it's not a given to get a good farm system that way, but it does make things easier.

 

Dalbec and Chatham could be gems, but I'm not expecting any 12th picks in the next 3 years, so it will be harder to find the next Jason Groome from the 24-30 pick.

[moonslav59]

Even I clamored for prospect trades. As costly as it was, I like the Sale trade. And even the Thornburg trade was probably a good one. The trades for Kimbrel and Pomeranz not so much. I do think Dombrowski has a tendency to overvalue the role of closer. And Pomeranz was just a silly target to go so heavy on...

 

I clamored too.

 

I feel better about the Kimbrel trade now that closer salaries have sky-rocketed, but still wish we hadn't done it.

 

Everyone knows my feelings about the Espi deal, despite me really liking Pom.

[notin]

The biggest problem I had with Cherington is he didn't like to deal any prospects. Dombrowski is the polar opposite, dealing as many as possible (justifying his reputation). While I like this team, I also like a nice balance between the two extremes. Prospects right now are not worth what they were in trades 2 years ago, and this will handicap the Sox ability going forward just as much as not having a pipeline of players....

 

I think Ben would have traded several big prospects had he stayed but certainly not as many.

 

Dombrowski did have a great draft last year, but he realy hasn't built great farm systems since he was in Florida and had perennial top 5 picks. Granted, it's not a given to get a good farm system that way, but it does make things easier.

 

Dalbec and Chatham could be gems, but I'm not expecting any 12th picks in the next 3 years, so it will be harder to find the next Jason Groome from the 24-30 pick.

 

Dalbec and Chatham have so little experience right now it's hard to call them anything. Oddly, the sneaky steal of that draft might have been Ryan Scott, who I do think might surprise people. Of course, it is more likely he just flop into oblivion..

[moonslav59]

Dalbec and Chatham have so little experience right now it's hard to call them anything. Oddly, the sneaky steal of that draft might have been Ryan Scott, who I do think might surprise people. Of course, it is more likely he just flop into oblivion..

 

I haven't heard anything about Ryan. He's not even in soxprospects.com's top 60.