Sox get Sale

[harmony]

Are the Sox really closer to the presumptuous designation of World Series contenders? They're in the conversation for "best team in thr AL", but Cleveland is the defending pennant winner and gets back two outstanding starters in Carrasco and Salazar and their best hitter in Michael Brantley. I'm not saying Dombrowski didn't improve this team, but let's not buy our AL Champion tee shirts just yet.

To elaborate, the Red Sox may well be the current favorite to win the American League pennant next year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 [check out the right column]

 

... but it's crazy call the Red Sox the "prohibitive" favorites, as one columnist did:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/6/13856634/chris-sale-red-sox-american-league-favorites-rotation-lineup-moncada-kopech

 

I'm not a betting person but I would easily take the field against Red Sox to win the AL title.

Edited December 16, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Steamer Projected WAR

 

Pitchers

Sox

4.7 Sale

4.5 Price

3.7 Porcello

2.2 Pomeranz (24 GS)

1.6 ERod (23 GS)

0.5 Buch (6 GS)

0.4 Wright (6 GS) serious short-changed here

 

1.0 Kimbrel

0.8 Kelly

0.4 Ross

0.3 Thornburg (Hmmm)

0.4 Smith (giving him more IP, 40, than Wright!?!?)

0.2 Barnes

0.1 Hembre0.1 Abad

 

CLE

4.8 Kluber

4.4 Carrasco

3.3 Salazar

1.6 Bauer

1.4 Timlin

0.8 Clevinger

0.5 Cooney

0.3 Merritt

 

1.8 Miller

0.8 Allen

0.5 Otero

0.5 McAllister

0.4 Shaw

o.3 C Anderson

 

Position Players

Sox

5.4 Betts

3.8 Bogey

3.6 Pedey

3.0 JBJ

1.7 HanRam

1.3 Beni

1.1 Leon

0.9 Pablo

0.8 Vaz

0.7 Holt

0.6 Moreland

0.4 Young

0.1 Swihart

 

Guardians

4.8 Lindor

3.3 Ramirez

2.8 Kipnis

2.6 Santana

1.4 Naquin

1.2 Brantley

1.1 Y Gomes

1.o R Perez

0.9 Guyer

0.8 Chisenhall

0.6 A Almonte'0.1 E Gonzalez

 

 

[Emp9]

Are the Sox really closer to the presumptuous designation of World Series contenders? They're in the conversation for "best team in thr AL", but Cleveland is the defending pennant winner and gets back two outstanding starters in Carrasco and Salazar and their best hitter in Michael Brantley. I'm not saying Dombrowski didn't improve this team, but let's not buy our AL Champion tee shirts just yet.

 

Who is? I'm Thinkin' you read my post wrong. That's exactly why I asked... 'Who's the best team?" when it was said the best team doesn't always win. LOL It's exactly why I keep saying the Guardians are looking to only get better by getting 2 out of their top 3 SPers back next season. We couldn't beat them when they had just one of them. I don't believe Sale is a luxury. I don't think acquiring Sale only minimally helps in some meaningless 1 extra win in the standings way.

 

I do think getting Sale helps a lot, along with a few other reasons, in why I might now slightly favor the Sox vs the Tribe.

[moonslav59]

Who is? I'm Thinkin' you read my post wrong. That's exactly why I asked... 'Who's the best team?" when it was said the best team doesn't always win. LOL It's exactly why I keep saying the Guardians are looking to only get better by getting 2 out of their top 3 SPers back next season. We couldn't beat them when they had just one of them. I don't believe Sale is a luxury. I don't think acquiring Sale only minimally helps in some meaningless 1 extra win in the standings way.

 

I do think getting Sale helps a lot, along with a few other reasons, in why I might now slightly favor the Sox vs the Tribe.

 

I'm not sure I'd say the Guardians were better than the Sox this year based on a 3 game series.

 

They also have to fill Naps shoes, if he bolts.

 

They certainly stack up well with us on paper.

[Emp9]

I'm not sure I'd say the Guardians were better than the Sox this year based on a 3 game series.

 

They also have to fill Naps shoes, if he bolts.

 

They certainly stack up well with us on paper.

 

Maybe, maybe not.

 

I do look for the Sox to have a more consistent offense and pitching this year that I hope carries on into the playoffs. Sale should be a huge upgrade, and another season of experience (post season experience included) should help our younger players focus. It won't be so new to them, less playoff jitters.

 

I'm also curious to see how Cleveland responds from losing a WS. Could motivate them or not.

 

Do you see the Guardians signing a big bat even if they don't bring Nap back? A Bautista or a Encarnacion?

[moonslav59]

Maybe, maybe not.

 

I do look for the Sox to have a more consistent offense and pitching this year that I hope carries on into the playoffs. Sale should be a huge upgrade, and another season of experience (post season experience included) should help our younger players focus. It won't be so new to them, less playoff jitters.

 

I'm also curious to see how Cleveland responds from losing a WS. Could motivate them or not.

 

Do you see the Guardians signing a big bat even if they don't bring Nap back? A Bautista or a Encarnacion?

 

Word is they are out on EE, but maybe Bautista.

[S5Dewey]

If someone had told me in October that both EE and Bautista would be available one week before Christmas I'd have told them that they are out of their mind.

[moonslav59]

If someone had told me in October that both EE and Bautista would be available one week before Christmas I'd have told them that they are out of their mind.

 

Did DD not see this coming when he signed Moreland, or is this a shock or was he never really interested at even a low cost?

 

Of course, he may still sign for $60M/3.

[Nick]

I'll take my chance winning a series with Sale pitching twice. That has to make our chance of winning greater than whatever it was previously.

 

There's several ways to look at his addition for regular season. Our fifth starter spot was horrific last year. Inserting Sale in that spot makes us significantly better, not marginally better as some sports writer hack has claimed. Yeah I get it that we mortgaged our future years 6-10 for THAT priviledge. Even with payroll of $200M, we're destined to be doomed after 2020. At some point, I'll be dead and I won't have to worry about it.

[notin]

I'm not sure I'd say the Guardians were better than the Sox this year based on a 3 game series.

 

They also have to fill Naps shoes, if he bolts.

 

They certainly stack up well with us on paper.

 

The downgrade from Napoli to anyone might be about equal to the downgrade from Ortiz to Mitch Moreland...

[S5Dewey]

I'll take my chance winning a series with Sale pitching twice. That has to make our chance of winning greater than whatever it was previously.

 

As the dust settles in my mind I come to realize that picking up Sale was a move made to get us ready for the playoffs. We already had a pitching staff good enough to get us to the playoffs but we had nobody who could reliably withstand the bright lights of Playoff Baseball. (yes, that's directed at YOU, Mr. Price).

 

Having Sale on the staff may actually help Price in the playoffs when he's not being relied upon to be The Horse.

[notin]

As the dust settles in my mind I come to realize that picking up Sale was a move made to get us ready for the playoffs. We already had a pitching staff good enough to get us to the playoffs but we had nobody who could reliably withstand the bright lights of Playoff Baseball. (yes, that's directed at YOU, Mr. Price).

 

Having Sale on the staff may actually help Price in the playoffs when he's not being relied upon to be The Horse.

 

Of course Price was once teamed up with two other Cy Young winners in Detroit (Scherzer, Verlander) and it didn't help. Heck it didn't help any of them...

[Bellhorn04]

Sale's postseason record is pristine.

[notin]

Sale's postseason record is pristine.

 

That's looking at the glass as half full...

[Emp9]

Price may of pitched his best post season game vs the O's in '14 (Gm 3). Gave up 2 ER but s***.. he went 8 Innings.

 

In '13 the Sox vs the Tigers, the Tiger's BP did them in, it wasn't their SP. Price of course wasn't on either team then, but the Tigers rotation was just as stacked. Can't have your BP give up 2 grand slams in two different games and expect to win the series.

 

The take away for me is in '13 their BP cost them and in '14 the other teams BP cost them (A.Miller).

 

Yeah, I guess the worst case scenario for us is that all of Price, Porcello, and Sale have lousy post seasons and nobody else steps up like ERod, Pom, or Wright, or Buch (if he's even on the team) or at least not enough. It could happen I suppose. I still don't think "The Playoffs are a crapshoot, why get Sale?" is a good argument for not getting Sale.

[S5Dewey]

Of course Price was once teamed up with two other Cy Young winners in Detroit (Scherzer, Verlander) and it didn't help. Heck it didn't help any of them...

 

Yeah. You're right. His inability to put up W's in the post-season was something we knew about when we signed him.

 

To carry that bit farther, it can be said that signing Price has necessitated our signing Sale. Ughh. Now we have to hope Sale can be what Price isn't in the post-season.

[Bellhorn04]

To carry that bit farther, it can be said that signing Price has necessitated our signing Sale. Ughh. Now we have to hope Sale can be what Price isn't in the post-season.

 

That's a pretty negative way to look at it.

 

I think they targeted Sale because a) he's a great pitcher (duh) and he was cheap dollar wise so he didn't hurt their plans to get under the tax threshold or stay close to it.

[notin]

Price may of pitched his best post season game vs the O's in '14 (Gm 3). Gave up 2 ER but s***.. he went 8 Innings.

 

In '13 the Sox vs the Tigers, the Tiger's BP did them in, it wasn't their SP. Price of course wasn't on either team then, but the Tigers rotation was just as stacked. Can't have your BP give up 2 grand slams in two different games and expect to win the series.

 

The take away for me is in '13 their BP cost them and in '14 the other teams BP cost them (A.Miller).

 

Yeah, I guess the worst case scenario for us is that all of Price, Porcello, and Sale have lousy post seasons and nobody else steps up like ERod, Pom, or Wright, or Buch (if he's even on the team) or at least not enough. It could happen I suppose. I still don't think "The Playoffs are a crapshoot, why get Sale?" is a good argument for not getting Sale.

 

It is possible that they all do bad or are hurt and hopefully someone elevates up.

 

That comment did remind me of the 2003 ALCS against New York. The Sox lost the four games started by Pedro and Derek Lowe, but won the three games started by Wakefield and John Burkett. Not that Burkett outpitched Pedro that week...

[S5Dewey]

That's a pretty negative way to look at it.

 

I think they targeted Sale because a) he's a great pitcher (duh) and he was cheap dollar wise so he didn't hurt their plans to get under the tax threshold or stay close to it.

 

Sure, but you have to admit that we're probably going to feel a lot better going into the playoffs with Sale as our leading pitcher rather than Price.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, but you have to admit that we're probably going to feel a lot better going into the playoffs with Sale as our leading pitcher rather than Price.

 

If we make it, I'll love the fact we have 3 Cy Young caliber starters going in. And you would think Price and Porcello are due...

[notin]

Yeah. You're right. His inability to put up W's in the post-season was something we knew about when we signed him.

 

To carry that bit farther, it can be said that signing Price has necessitated our signing Sale. Ughh. Now we have to hope Sale can be what Price isn't in the post-season.

 

People make WAAAAAAAAY too big of a deal of post-season numbers like they are an indication of handling pressure when a lot of times they are nothing more than a handful of games spread out over several seasons. ..

[Bellhorn04]

People make WAAAAAAAAY too big of a deal of post-season numbers like they are an indication of handling pressure when a lot of times they are nothing more than a handful of games spread out over several seasons. ..

 

Maybe so. But Price's lack of postseason success is a little perplexing. You would think the law of averages would catch up faster than this.

[moonslav59]

Our fifth starter spot was horrific last year.

 

Depends how you look at who our 5th starter was.

 

I think we started the season like this:

 

1 Price

2 Porcello

3 ERod

4 Buchholz

5 Kelly

 

When injuries and struggles happened, one could argue Wright became our 5th starter and did great.

 

I do agree with your point though, Sale is a huge upgrade over whoever our 5th starter was going to be this year (Buch or Pom in my opinion).

[notin]

Maybe so. But Price's lack of postseason success is a little perplexing. You would think the law of averages would catch up faster than this.

 

And it will to some extent.

 

Of course he's a victim of the numbers more so than actually pitching poorly sometimes.

 

Last year he blew past the Guardians in the first, and if Chisenhall didn't hit a Pesky Pole home run that gets out of no other ballpark, he might have actually had a good outing. But as it wad thr post-season, there was a quick hook...

[moonslav59]

The downgrade from Napoli to anyone might be about equal to the downgrade from Ortiz to Mitch Moreland...

 

Good point, but we also have to look at this:

 

Carrasco and Salazar started 50 games last year, and both were under a 3.90 ERA. Both returning is not going to significantly affect their seasonal record.

 

If we are talking playoffs and their absence from it, the guys who replaced them did damn well, so how much of an upgrade can they give the Guardians when comparing 2016 to the hypothetical 2017 playoffs?

 

Tomlin, Bauer and Merrit went 3-0 in the AL playoffs.

 

They did struggle in the WS (1-2), but we're talking best of the AL here.

[S5Dewey]

Maybe so. But Price's lack of postseason success is a little perplexing. You would think the law of averages would catch up faster than this.

 

Yep. I'm very aware of small sample sizes, but when it's the only sample size one has it'd be foolhardy to ignore it.

[raider_35_24]

People make WAAAAAAAAY too big of a deal of post-season numbers like they are an indication of handling pressure when a lot of times they are nothing more than a handful of games spread out over several seasons. ..

 

Exactly...

 

Clayton Kershaw Postseason Career Stats

W-L ERA IP

4-7 4.55 89.0

 

you telling me that looks good? you telling me he's not a good pitcher? come on people price is a damn good pitcher he even had a good season this past year look at the stats....

[moonslav59]

Yep. I'm very aware of small sample sizes, but when it's the only sample size one has it'd be foolhardy to ignore it.

 

Not ignore, but also not read too much into it either.

 

Remember, Papi went 10 for his first 50 post season ABs in 14 games (0 HRs, 4 DBLs and 2 BB) .231 OBP, .280 SLG, .511 OPS, yet he was one of baseball's best clutch players of all time--if not the best.

 

Edited December 17, 2016 by moonslav59

[S5Dewey]

Price is 2-8 in 15 post season games over the past ten years with an ERA of ~5.50. He will never have enough post season appearances to qualify for having a large enough sample size to form a definitive opinion on his post-season performance. So what do you do? Keep running him out there as our ace, hoping for something good??

 

I said in the beginning that Price has a history of being a pitcher who can get you there but can't get you out the other side. Truth.

 

I have no problem with Price being our #2 or #3 pitcher in the post-season based on what he does in the regular season. However, I'm going to stand by what I said.. that I'm hoping that Chris Sale is something David Price isn't in the post season.

[Kimmi]

Evidently we share some common traits. I am one soft talking, fun loving, all around good guy. Tell you what - earlier I wished you a Merry Christmas. I am upgrading that to a Happy New Year as well!

 

Apology accepted.