2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[Spudboy]

Yeah, it probably is. I prefer to think about it as its not being because we're wrong but rather that most people have accepted it and moved on. After all, "everyone IS entitled to their opinion....."

 

Fair warning though... the next time Iggy's name is brought up you can expect me (and maybe Moon) to be right in the middle of the conversation!

 

I was not in favor of the Iggy trade. I don't think Peavy added that much. But I am alone in that opinion, I guess.

[Spudboy]

The Lackey trade? That's ancient history. Give it up.

 

Now that was a really dumb trade.

 

There have been plenty over the years.

[S5Dewey]

I was not in favor of the Iggy trade. I don't think Peavy added that much. But I am alone in that opinion, I guess.

 

The numbers are growing. Now there are THREE of us!! Soon we'll be taking over the board!

[Bellhorn04]

The numbers are growing. Now there are THREE of us!! Soon we'll be taking over the board!

 

Nope, because notin is here now so the pro-Iggy trade numbers grew by one as well.

[moonslav59]

The Lackey trade? That's ancient history. Give it up.

 

The Lackey trade came after the Iggy trade, so the Iggy trade is older ancient history.

 

[S5Dewey]

The Lackey trade came after the Iggy trade, so the Iggy trade is older ancient history.

 

 

AHA! I can see that you still want to talk about the Lackey trade! Well, you're not getting away with that!!

[notin]

The Lackey trade? That's ancient history. Give it up.

 

It was more recent than the Iglesias trade. Is the amount of time ago it occurred a reason to "give it up"?

[Dojji]

Saying 'Iglesias was clearly not identified as one of the top three or four best prospects and was made available' is a circular argument. Was he not identified as a ML player the reason he was made available,

 

And this is where your argument fails. The Sox brass did identify Iggy as a startable shortstop, in the sense that he was someone you could start in short without hurting your team. What he isn't, wasn't, and never will be is the kind of superstar you bnuild a team around. Bogaerts? Is. Or at least is beginning to look like that kind of player and already showing a performance level that's impressive enough to dream on.

 

Iglesias was traded exactly BECAUSE the Sox brass realized that Iglesias was good enough to start, and that he wouldn't be starting anytime soon in Boston. When you can either move someone into a position where they lose the greater part of their value as a player, OR you can make a trade, the right move is often to make a trade. All teams do this, and all fanbases occasially tie themselves in knots with the woulda-coulda-shoulda game when they do. It's nothing new under the sun.

 

Anyway, all that needed to happen for the Iglesias trade to reflect well on Cherington is to NOT get as literally unlukcly as mathematically possible on at least one of Middlebrooks, Cecchini and Sandoval. If at least one of those 3 players chooses not to backfire spectacularly, the Iglesias trade would have been the exact right decision.

 

All a GM can do is play the odds, and the odds looked like the team had plenty of resources to solve 3B without moving the best Red Sox prospect since Jon Lester off his best position.

 

if events are sufficiently determined to go against him, that all 3 of the reasonable depth measures he had available to fix 3B at the time are going to backfire on him exactly as spectacularly as possible, there's simply only so much a GM can do about that. How many layers of redundancy does a team need before it's OK to take smart risks that are aimed at improving our weaknesses so we can win World Series? With championships in play (and they are in play now, and definitely were in 2013),One must not be paralyzed by maybes, and that's exactly what not trading Iglesias would have been.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Dojji

[notin]

And this is where your argument fails. The Sox brass did identify Iggy as a startable shortstop, in the sense that he was someone you could start in short without hurting your team. What he isn't, wasn't, and never will be is the kind of superstar you bnuild a team around. Bogaerts? Is. Or at least is beginning to look like that kind of player and already showing a performance level that's impressive enough to dream on.

 

Iglesias was traded exactly BECAUSE the Sox brass realized that Iglesias was good enough to start, and that he wouldn't be starting anytime soon in Boston. When you can either move someone into a position where they lose the greater part of their value as a player, OR you can make a trade, the right move is often to make a trade. All teams do this, and all fanbases occasially tie themselves in knots with the woulda-coulda-shoulda game.

 

Anyway, all that needed to happen for the Iglesias trade to reflect well on Cherington is to NOT get as literally unlukcly as mathematically possible on at least one of Middlebrooks, Cecchini and Sandoval. If at least one of those 3 players chooses not to backfire spectacularly, the Iglesias trade would have been the exact right decision.

 

All a GM can do is play the odds, and the odds looked like the team had plenty of resources to solve 3B without moving the best Red Sox prospect since Jon Lester off his best position.

 

if events are sufficiently determined to go against him, that all 3 of the reasonable depth measures he had available to fix 3B at the time are going to backfire on him exactly as spectacularly as possible, there's simply only so much a GM can do about that. How many layers of redundancy does a team need before it's OK to take smart risks that are aimed at improving our weaknesses so we can win World Series? With championships in play (and they are in play now, and definitely were in 2013),One must not be paralyzed by maybes, and that's exactly what not trading Iglesias would have been.

 

I know fans have liked to cling to "we didn't need Peavy." But bear in mind, the Sox were NOT in first place at the time of that deal, and had a rotation featuring both Workman and Doubront. That wasn't sustainable. How have those guys looked since?

 

Acquiring Peavy pushed Workman back into the pen, strengthening it as well. And it pushed Doubront back into the pen for the post-season.

[Dojji]

We probably didn't need Peavy. He wasn't taht good for us. At the same time -- a GM has to play the odds. Does adding a former ace type improve your chance of winning the World Series at a time the trade is made? yes, it absolutely does. Do you avoid making that deal for a potentially ace caliber starter because it would involve trading a kinda sorta nice middle of the pack shortstop who can make the occasional highlight reel play? HELL NO.

[notin]

We probably didn't need Peavy. He wasn't taht good for us. At the same time -- a GM has to play the odds. Does adding a former ace type improve your chance of winning the World Series at a time the trade is made? yes, it absolutely does. Do you avoid making that deal for a potentially ace caliber starter because it would involve trading a kinda sorta nice middle of the pack shortstop who can make the occasional highlight reel play? HELL NO.

 

Highlight reel plays are fun to watch, but don't win titles. How many rings does Omar Vizquel wear? And it's not like Vizquel spent his career on bad teams. I challenge anyone to find a lineup in the history of baseball deeper and scarier than the 2000 Guardians.

 

I'll take the WS ring. As good as Iglesias is, (and he is good, he just isn't as freakishly special as many seem to think) he guarantees nothing in the way of ever winning a title. The Sox rolled Hall of Famers out in LF for a half a century and never won a title with them...

[Bellhorn04]

Even if Peavy's numbers were a little worse than what we would have liked (and they were actually perfect #3 numbers), the reasoning behind the trade was rock-solid, and the attitude behind it was admirable, IMHO. He bolstered the staff and gave us some insurance. He gave us 6.4 innings per start and lightened the load for the bullpen.

 

A deadline trade by a contender can't be expected to yield equal value. Look what Theo gave up for a few months from a closer.

[S5Dewey]

Don't blame ME for perpetuating this topic. I gave it up a few hours ago.

[notin]

Well maybe after all these years, the Sox can get Iglesias back. The Tigers are listening on everyone. Our current team President was the man who brought him to Detroit. And the Sox certainly have prospects to make it happen...

[Spudboy]

Even if Peavy's numbers were a little worse than what we would have liked (and they were actually perfect #3 numbers), the reasoning behind the trade was rock-solid, and the attitude behind it was admirable, IMHO. He bolstered the staff and gave us some insurance. He gave us 6.4 innings per start and lightened the load for the bullpen.

 

A deadline trade by a contender can't be expected to yield equal value. Look what Theo gave up for a few months from a closer.

 

All valid points. I just don't believe that he was all that effective from what I saw and remember.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm not sure if this has been noted already, but the Red Sox also traded F.Montas in the Iglesias trade. In sum:

The Red Sox have announced a three-team trade with the Tigers and White Sox that will send right-handers Jake Peavy and Brayan Villarreal to Boston and shortstop Jose Iglesias to Detroit. The White Sox will receive outfield prospect Avisail Garcia as well as minor league right handers J.B. Wendelken and Francellis Montas and shortstop Cleuluis Rondon.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/red-sox-white-sox-agree-to-jake-peavy-trade.html

 

At the time, I thought the Red Sox may have sold low on Iglesias. His bat was a question mark but his glove was so good that maybe the Red Sox could have gotten more for him. I was never a big Peavy fan, and he didn't pitch particularly well for the Red Sox. I think the Red Sox win the division that year even without trading for Peavy.

 

With that said, in the playoffs, Peavy pitched well in game 4 against the Rays. If he doesn't pitch well there, maybe the series goes to 5 games and anything can happen in a deciding game 5.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_ALDS1.shtml

 

Peavy did not pitch well aganst the Tigers (game 4) in the ALCS.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_ALCS.shtml

 

Peavy did not pitch well against the Cardinals (game 3) in the World Series. The Red Sox won the series in 6 games; interestingly, if the series went to a 7th game, Peavy would have started that game. We can only speculate....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_WS.shtml

 

We have to give Peavy some credit for his game 4 start against the Rays, an important game--his greatest moment with the Red Sox.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Well maybe after all these years, the Sox can get Iglesias back. The Tigers are listening on everyone. Our current team President was the man who brought him to Detroit. And the Sox certainly have prospects to make it happen...

 

Maybe they'll take TShaw, Abad, Owens, Johnson and Marrero for VMart and Iggy.

 

LOL

[S5Dewey]

Maybe they'll take TShaw, Abad, Owens, Johnson and Marrero for VMart and Iggy.

 

LOL

 

Hmmm.. I wonder if Bogaerts would be willing to move to 3rd.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure if this has been noted already, but the Red Sox also traded F.Montas in the Iglesias trade. In sum:

 

 

At the time, I thought the Red Sox may have sold low on Iglesias. His bat was a question mark but his glove was so good that maybe the Red Sox could have gotten more for him. I was never a big Peavy fan, and he didn't pitch particularly well for the Red Sox. I think the Red Sox win the division that year even without trading for Peavy.

 

With that said, in the playoffs, Peavy pitched well in game 4 against the Rays. If he doesn't pitch well there, maybe the series goes to 5 games and anything can happen in a deciding game 5.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_ALDS1.shtml

 

Peavy did not pitch well aganst the Tigers (game 4) in the ALCS.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_ALCS.shtml

 

Peavy did not pitch well against the Cardinals (game 3) in the World Series. The Red Sox won the series in 6 games; interestingly, if the series went to a 7th game, Peavy would have started that game. We can only speculate....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_WS.shtml

 

We have to give Peavy some credit for his game 4 start against the Rays, an important game--his greatest moment with the Red Sox.

 

Peavy pitched fine in his regular season starts. Look at the innings, the ERA+ and the WHIP. He gave them just about exactly what they should have expected.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Bellhorn04

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not sure if this has been noted already, but the Red Sox also traded F.Montas in the Iglesias trade. In sum:

 

 

At the time, I thought the Red Sox may have sold low on Iglesias. His bat was a question mark but his glove was so good that maybe the Red Sox could have gotten more for him. I was never a big Peavy fan, and he didn't pitch particularly well for the Red Sox. I think the Red Sox win the division that year even without trading for Peavy.

 

With that said, in the playoffs, Peavy pitched well in game 4 against the Rays. If he doesn't pitch well there, maybe the series goes to 5 games and anything can happen in a deciding game 5.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_ALDS1.shtml

 

Peavy did not pitch well aganst the Tigers (game 4) in the ALCS.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_ALCS.shtml

 

Peavy did not pitch well against the Cardinals (game 3) in the World Series. The Red Sox won the series in 6 games; interestingly, if the series went to a 7th game, Peavy would have started that game. We can only speculate....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2013_WS.shtml

 

We have to give Peavy some credit for his game 4 start against the Rays, an important game--his greatest moment with the Red Sox.

 

You can't put a "stat" on the boost picking up a guy like Peavy gives a team in a playoff race, but based on player reactions, it's not insignificant. Throw in the fact that a lot of Sox pitchers commented on how much they learned from Peavy, and you get a better sense of how much that deal helped that year.

 

As Notin mentioned, it strengthened the rotation as well as the bullpen, so basing a deal strictly on "game logs" is a little short sighted.

[moonslav59]

You can't put a "stat" on the boost picking up a guy like Peavy gives a team in a playoff race, but based on player reactions, it's not insignificant. Throw in the fact that a lot of Sox pitchers commented on how much they learned from Peavy, and you get a better sense of how much that deal helped that year.

 

You can't put a stat on what Iggy did for the team. Bogey raved at how much Iggy helped him on defense. He was a great influence on his teammates, and they all cried when Iggy was dealt..

 

Half the team complained about us giving up Frankie Montas in the deal, so don't forget that either.

 

We we lucky we had Dempster to bring the team out of the post trade doldrums.

[Bellhorn04]

You can't put a "stat" on the boost picking up a guy like Peavy gives a team in a playoff race, but based on player reactions, it's not insignificant. Throw in the fact that a lot of Sox pitchers commented on how much they learned from Peavy, and you get a better sense of how much that deal helped that year.

 

You can't put a stat on what Iggy did for the team. Bogey raved at how much Iggy helped him on defense. He was a great influence on his teammates, and they all cried when Iggy was dealt..

 

Half the team complained about us giving up Frankie Montas in the deal, so don't forget that either.

 

We we lucky we had Dempster to bring the team out of the post trade doldrums.

 

LOL

 

Iggy kept helping us that year even after we traded him. Nice guy!

[Eddy Ballgame]

You can't put a "stat" on the boost picking up a guy like Peavy gives a team in a playoff race, but based on player reactions, it's not insignificant. Throw in the fact that a lot of Sox pitchers commented on how much they learned from Peavy, and you get a better sense of how much that deal helped that year.

 

You can't put a stat on what Iggy did for the team. Bogey raved at how much Iggy helped him on defense. He was a great influence on his teammates, and they all cried when Iggy was dealt..

 

Half the team complained about us giving up Frankie Montas in the deal, so don't forget that either.

 

We we lucky we had Dempster to bring the team out of the post trade doldrums.

 

They still have Iggy's jersey hanging on the wall in the clubhouse and all the players touch it before they head out on the field. It was Dempster's idea. I heard they even made a mannequin of Iglesias and poured champagne on it after they won the series.

[Eddy Ballgame]

You can't put a "stat" on the boost picking up a guy like Peavy gives a team in a playoff race, but based on player reactions, it's not insignificant. Throw in the fact that a lot of Sox pitchers commented on how much they learned from Peavy, and you get a better sense of how much that deal helped that year.

 

You can't put a stat on what Iggy did for the team. Bogey raved at how much Iggy helped him on defense. He was a great influence on his teammates, and they all cried when Iggy was dealt..

 

Half the team complained about us giving up Frankie Montas in the deal, so don't forget that either.

 

We we lucky we had Dempster to bring the team out of the post trade doldrums.

 

I'm pretty sure that if you asked half of the guys from that '13 team who Jose Iglesias is, they'd say, "My wife really enjoys his music."

[moonslav59]

they still have iggy's jersey hanging on the wall in the clubhouse and all the players touch it before they head out on the field. It was dempster's idea. I heard they even made a mannequin of iglesias and poured champagne on it after they won the series.

 

lmao!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Peavy pitched fine in his regular season starts. Look at the innings, the ERA+ and the WHIP. He gave them just about exactly what they should have expected.

 

His ERA+ was 102 with the Red Sox. That is barely above league average. When the Red Sox traded for Peavy, I presume they were hoping for something more than a league average pitcher. Peavy was coming off a strong 2012 season--an ERA+ of 126--and some people were hoping the 2012 Peavy would show up in Boston. That didn't happen--he was a disappointment in that regard.

[Bellhorn04]

His ERA+ was 102 with the Red Sox. That is barely above league average. When the Red Sox traded for Peavy, I presume they were hoping for something more than a league average pitcher. Peavy was coming off a strong 2012 season--an ERA+ of 126--and some people were hoping the 2012 Peavy would show up in Boston. That didn't happen and he was a disappointment in that regard.

 

League average makes you a #3 pitcher by definition, and that's exactly what they needed.

 

He averaged 6.42 innings per start - that's excellent by current standards.

 

The 1.16 WHIP was excellent.

 

His FIP was 3.79 which suggests he was a little unlucky.

 

I guarantee you Ben Cherington was happy with the numbers.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm not sure if championship teams typically have a league average pitcher as a number 3 starter. Maybe they sometimes do, but I would think it is more the exception than the rule. In the eyes of the Red Sox, Peavy probably had a floor (league average pitcher) and a ceiling (exceptional). His ceiling was his 2012 season. The Red Sox got the floor instead.

 

But you're right: a league average pitcher has value. And while Peavy's overall postseason numbers were pretty bad, he did come through in that start against the Rays.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure if championship teams typically have a league average pitcher as a number 3 starter. Maybe they sometimes do, but I would think it is more the exception than the rule. In the eyes of the Red Sox, Peavy probably had a floor (league average pitcher) and a ceiling (exceptional). His ceiling was his 2012 season. The Red Sox got the floor instead.

 

But you're right: a league average pitcher has value. And while Peavy's overall postseason numbers were pretty bad, he did come through in that start against the Rays.

 

You'd be amazed at how many champions had 1 or more starters with an ERA over 4.75 or even 5.00. (based on top 5 in GS'd)

 

2000 NYY

29 D Cone 6.91

15 Neagle 5.81

 

2001 AZ

29 Anderson 5.20

17 R Ellis 5.77

 

2002 LAA

26 A Sele 4.89

15 Schoeneweis 4.86

 

2003 FLA

none

 

2004 BOS (WOW! 63 starts with 4.87+++)

33 Lowe 5.43

30 Wake 4.87

 

2005 CWS

22 O Hernandez 5.12

 

2006 STL (Take a gander!!!!)

33 Marquis 6.02

17 Mulder 7.14

17 A Reyes 5.06

(6) 15 JWeaver 5.18

(7) 13 Ponson 5.24

95 starts with a starter over 5.05!

 

2007 BOS

31 Wake 4.76

23 Tavarez 5.15

 

2008 PHI

30 Kendrick 5.49

19 Eaton 5.80

 

2009 NYY

31 Chamberlain 4.75

T5- 9 S Mitre 6.79

T5- 9 C-M Wang 9.64

 

 

2010 SFG

none

(6) 11 Wellemeyer 5.68

 

2011 STL

none

(Westbrook was close at 4.66 in 33 starts)

 

2012 SFG

33 Lincecum 5.18

(only had 2 starts beyond their top 5 starters!)

 

2013 BOS

none

(Dempster was not far away at 4.57 in 29 starts.)

 

2014 SFG

26 Lincecum 4.74

 

2015 KCR

24 Guthrie 5.95

(Cueto was added- 13 starts 4.76)

 

2016 Cubs

none over 3.83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The 2009 Yankees had three starters with an ERA+ over 110: Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte, meaning that Peavy would be a bottom of the rotation starter on that staff (a fourth or fifth guy, not a third guy). I'll eventually go through some of the others. I was thinking of the 2016 Cubs as well. Even their fourth starter, Lackey, had an ERA+ of 120.

 

The 2013 Red Sox have three pitchers with ERA+ over 110: Lester, Lackey, and Buchholz. However, Buchholz threw a little over 100 innings that year. Nevertheless, when the playoffs started, Peavy was arguably the 4th starter on the staff, not the third.

 

The 2004 Red Sox have three pitchers with ERA+ over 110: Schilling, Pedro, Arroyo. Peavy would be battling Wakefield and Lowe for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation.

 

The 2007 Red Sox have two pitchers with an ERA+ over 110: Beckett and Schilling. Dice-K (the third starter) had an ERA+ of 108, better than average, but a little closer to the league average ERA+ mark of 100.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Fan_since_Boggs