2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[Dojji]

It seems to be all we're talking about, and posts of this type are peppering every currently active thread. Also let's face it, the season as far as we're concerned is over, so it's time for this thread.

 

Like last year, I'd like to establish a ground rule, see if we can manage to completely ignore it just like last time. I'd like to request that any time you might feel tempted to say someone's trade idea is "stupid" instead say "That trade is improbable." Or something similar. I'll probably forget the suggestion in 15 minutes or so myself, because dead brain blargh arrgggh, but I've put forward enough insane ideas that I know how it feels to get them trashed by all comers, and there's feelings I like better. A bit of moderation in language will make this a friendler forum. Thanks!

[mvp 78]

Either JBJ or Bogey are traded in a package for a starter.

[moonslav59]

Either JBJ or Bogey are traded in a package for a starter.

 

I doubt they'd consider trading Bogey until Dubon is ready.

 

We also are weak in OF depth, unless they are thinking of planting Moncada or Swihart in LF.

 

I think we may deal Moncada or Devers plus Swihart and some mid levels for something substantial.

[mvp 78]

I doubt they'd consider trading Bogey until Dubon is ready.

 

We also are weak in OF depth, unless they are thinking of planting Moncada or Swihart in LF.

 

I think we may deal Moncada or Devers plus Swihart and some mid levels for something substantial.

 

You love Hernandez. Couldn't he hold down the fort for a year?

[Wade Boggs]

JBJ and other prospects will be traded for Chris Sale. IMO..

 

Betts

Bogaerts

Benintendi

......................... All Keepers

 

Will NOT go anywhere of any trade package.

[moonslav59]

You love Hernandez. Couldn't he hold down the fort for a year?

 

He'd do better than the 2016 clown carousel, but I'm not sure Sox brass views Hernandez like I do.

 

If we picked up EE or Beltran to DH, then I could see us standing pat at 3B and letting Pablo, Hernandez, Holt, Shaw, Moncada and Rutledge fight it out to play FT or platoon at 3B.

 

[S5Dewey]

Warning! Blasphemy ahead!!

 

I don't see all the love for Xander Bogaerts. He's beginning to look to me like one of those players who had a tremendous upside - that he'll never reach. As much criticism as JBJ has gotten here and as much as some people 'want' for JBJ to be used as trade bait, JBJ is better at his position than Xbo is at his position, and JBJ's OPS is higher. For you fans of WAR, JBJ's WAR for 2016 was 5.3 while Bogaerts WAR was 3.7.

 

The ONLY thing Bogaerts has going for him is that we don't have another player whom we think can take XBo's place.

[mvp 78]

Warning! Blasphemy ahead!!

 

I don't see all the love for Xander Bogaerts. He's beginning to look to me like one of those players who had a tremendous upside - that he'll never reach. As much criticism as JBJ has gotten here and as much as some people 'want' for JBJ to be used as trade bait, JBJ is better at his position than Xbo is at his position, and JBJ's OPS is higher. For you fans of WAR, JBJ's WAR for 2016 was 5.3 while Bogaerts WAR was 3.7.

 

The ONLY thing Bogaerts has going for him is that we don't have another player whom we think can take XBo's place.

 

Yeah, 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs) means nothing really. If being the 6th best SS in the league is the only going for him, I don't know what to say about that.

[moonslav59]

Chances are that Bogey had a long slump. Too much is being read into the end of his season. The kid is young and super talented. He may need to work on stamina, or maybe all he needs to do is improve on his in season adjustments as pitchers adjust to him.

 

A 4.7 WAR following a 4.3 season last year is no fluke.

[Dojji]

Seriously. There are years where we would have committed bloody murder to get a shortstop as good as Bogaerts. The extended slump towards the end of the year was troubling, but he still finished with excellent numbers for a shortstop. I can only assume that people are being critical of Bogaerts because that early flash of success got their appetite whetted for a new Nomar Garciaparra, which the kid is not and may not ever be. What he is though, streaks and all, is a very valuable asset in a position that has been a thorn in our side to try to get a quality player for, since the aforementioned Garciaparra.

 

Seriously, 20 HR .800 OPS and flashes of all 5 tools at shortstop? That's a dream for most franchises.

 

We were hoping he'd taken a big step forward when he was setting franchise records for hitting streaks in May/June, and it turns out the step was somewhat smaller, but even with the later slump, he still advanced himself, he maintained the OBP progress from last year, this was his first 20 HR year, and the first year his OPS was over .800. X is getting better. Just not as MUCH better as the ridiculous hot streak in the first half led us to hope.

Edited October 13, 2016 by Dojji

[S5Dewey]

Yeah, 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs) means nothing really. If being the 6th best SS in the league is the only going for him, I don't know what to say about that.

 

Again, one of my problems with WAR. Fangraphs has him at 4.7 while BR has him at 3.7. One would think that if something is going to be a calculated number then everyone would either use the same calculation or the same designation for the end calculation. And BTW, Fangraphs also has Bradley with the better WAR, 4.8 vs. 4.7. But that's beside the point.

 

My point is that while there's a lot of clamoring to include JBJ in a trade nobody is mentioning Bogaerts, while JBJ is the better player at their respective positions.

[Dojji]

A 3.7 WAR is excellent

[S5Dewey]

And BTW. I would consider either one of them to be as untouchable as the other.

[S5Dewey]

A 3.7 WAR is excellent

 

It is. I'm not disputing that. But a 4.8 is better.

[moonslav59]

Again, one of my problems with WAR. Fangraphs has him at 4.7 while BR has him at 3.7. One would think that if something is going to be a calculated number then everyone would either use the same calculation or the same designation for the end calculation. And BTW, Fangraphs also has Bradley with the better WAR, 4.8 vs. 4.7. But that's beside the point.

 

My point is that while there's a lot of clamoring to include JBJ in a trade nobody is mentioning Bogaerts, while JBJ is the better player at their respective positions.

 

We have Beni and Betts who can play CF. We have nobody to play SS.

 

We have Young and Holt who can play LF, and finding a cheap LF addition is much easier than finding a decent SS. It usually is not a good plan to trade a 3.7 to 4.7 WAR position player and then have to go out and replace him.

 

[Dojji]

Don't forget Swihart in the LF mix.

[S5Dewey]

We have Beni and Betts who can play CF. We have nobody to play SS.

 

We have Young and Holt who can play LF, and finding a cheap LF addition is much easier than finding a decent SS. It usually is not a good plan to trade a 3.7 to 4.7 WAR position player and then have to go out and replace him.

 

 

Which brings us back around to what I said originally, that the [only = bad choice of words] thing Bogaerts has going for him is that we don't have anyone to replace him.

 

We have Young and Holt who can play LF, and finding a cheap LF addition is much easier than finding a decent SS. It usually is not a good plan to trade a 3.7 to 4.7 WAR position player and then have to go out and replace him.

But some people want to go out and trade a CF - one of the critical defensive positions - with a 4.8 WAR and weaken ourselves someplace else. There has to be a better option than that.

[mvp 78]

Chances are that Bogey had a long slump. Too much is being read into the end of his season. The kid is young and super talented. He may need to work on stamina, or maybe all he needs to do is improve on his in season adjustments as pitchers adjust to him.

 

A 4.7 WAR following a 4.3 season last year is no fluke.

 

He had some nice AB's in game 3. Probably should have been higher in the order, but whatever...

[jacksonianmarch]

He turned 24 2 weeks ago. He just hit 21HR with an .809OPS as a 23 yr old SS. This a year after hitting .320. You aren't dealing him. Anyone who says you are is stupid

[mvp 78]

He turned 24 2 weeks ago. He just hit 21HR with an .809OPS as a 23 yr old SS. This a year after hitting .320. You aren't dealing him. Anyone who says you are is stupid

 

You're just so nice sometimes.

[Spudboy]

Yeah, 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs) means nothing really. If being the 6th best SS in the league is the only going for him, I don't know what to say about that.

 

I read somewhere a few days ago that "Xbo" (I ike that Dewey ) Had a DWAR of -1.7 for 2016. Whatever that implies.

 

We all thought that he had made such great strides in his defense but those pesky defensive metrics get in his way.

 

We can not have such under performers on our team!!!!!

[Dojji]

I read somewhere a few days ago that "Xbo" (I ike that Dewey ) Had a DWAR of -1.7 for 2016.

 

Baseball Ref shows 2016 dWAR at -0.1. Almost exactly replacement level. Not sure what that means for a position where "replacements" typically favor very high levels of defense. Jeter spent most of his career wishing he was that good defensively, that I do know. If X is gonna hit as well as he hit this year, I'll take defensive adequacy to go along with that every time.

[S5Dewey]

He turned 24 2 weeks ago. He just hit 21HR with an .809OPS as a 23 yr old SS. This a year after hitting .320. You aren't dealing him. Anyone who says you are is stupid

 

OK. How about this? He just hit 26 HR with an .835 OPS and he's one of the best CF'ers in the game at age 26. He's just coming into his prime. And people want to trade him. Hell, he's not a guy you trade. He's a guy you trade FOR - or keep if you've got him - if you're smart.

[Spudboy]

You're just so nice sometimes.

 

He said stupid.

 

Break out the ban hammer!!!!!!1!

[Dojji]

I think the reason people want to trade Bradley is a gut check about just how streaky he is and a concern that pitchers might have caught up to him and he won't do it again. "Sell high" and all that.

[S5Dewey]

And I DO NOT want to trade Bogaerts. I just want people to keep some perspective on this thing!!

[S5Dewey]

I think the reason people want to trade Bradley is a gut check about just how streaky he is and a concern that pitchers might have caught up to him and he won't do it again. "Sell high" and all that.

 

I agree with 'streaky' and for some players being young and streaky is a good thing. Those hot streaks give an indication of what that player's ceiling might be. If here were average defensively I'd say yeah, get rid of him, but there's no way we should trade away GG type defense with that huge an upside.

[Spudboy]

OK. How about this? He just hit 26 HR with an .835 OPS and he's one of the best CF'ers in the game at age 26. He's just coming into his prime. And people want to trade him. Hell, he's not a guy you trade. He's a guy you trade FOR - or keep if you've got him - if you're smart.

 

The answer to that is that a team has to give to get.

 

But I agree with you. The idea that we can easily replace JBJ in Center is misguided. Yeah, we have Beni but he has not show the kind of glove that JBJ is now and is still pretty raw ( although toolsy ). Removing a player from the OF mix the caliber of JBJ is about as ill advised as removing our shortstop. Especially if the "Get" has questionable mechanics and may be a near term candidate for surgery. I want no part of that.

[S5Dewey]

He turned 24 2 weeks ago. He just hit 21HR with an .809OPS as a 23 yr old SS. This a year after hitting .320. You aren't dealing him. Anyone who says you are is stupid

 

I'm sorry. Did anyone say we should be dealing Xbo?

[S5Dewey]

The answer to that is that a team has to give to get.

 

But I agree with you. The idea that we can easily replace JBJ in Center is misguided. Yeah, we have Beni but he has not show the kind of glove that JBJ is now and is still pretty raw ( although toolsy ). Removing a player from the OF mix the caliber of JBJ is about as ill advised as removing our shortstop. Especially if the "Get" has questionable mechanics and may be a near term candidate for surgery. I want no part of that.

There! Somebody who 'gets it".

 

Thank you!!