6/20 vs White Sox

[Slasher9]

You had asked if any of us had predicted that the 2012 would win 69 games. Then you posted a bunch of statistics that were impressive if they had been predictions or projections. That is why I asked whether those were pre-season projections. My answer to your original question is that I did not predict 69 wins for the 2012 team, but my prediction for the 2012 team after the season was over was more accurate than Pythagorean's record of 73 wins.

 

exactly. so how could you say (and im not even sure it was you) that the 2016 team is a .500 team? that's the point.

[Bellhorn04]

Without Wright (who has come out of nowhere to be an ace), I agree with Spud, this is a .500 team. Facacta statistical projections do not convince me otherwise. Most of these statistical projections are no better than anyone's guesses.

 

Well, they're 31-24 in the games not started by Wright, so how does that figure?

[Bellhorn04]

Also, I agree that Wright came out of nowhere, but so what? He's on the team. There's good luck and bad luck with player performance. We've had plenty of the bad kind too.

[a700hitter]

Well, they're 31-24 in the games not started by Wright, so how does that figure?

You are ignoring the dynamics of the game. He eats innings and has saved the bullpen more than any other starter. That has a cascading effect beyond wins and losses in the games he pitches. Who would have have stepped into Wright's spot -- O'Sullivan? Without Wright, I could definitely see the team being 7 games under .500 in games pitched by his replacement. Do you think that would be a huge stretch?

[a700hitter]

Also, I agree that Wright came out of nowhere, but so what? He's on the team. There's good luck and bad luck with player performance. We've had plenty of the bad kind too.

I'll say so what right back to you. What is your point?

[Bellhorn04]

I'll say so what right back to you. What is your point?

 

My point is we're 39-30. What is yours?

[a700hitter]

My point is we're 39-30. What is yours?

Did I dispute that?

[Bellhorn04]

Did I dispute that?

 

So your answer is a question.

[a700hitter]

So your answer is a question.

My point is that I agree with Spud in that I don't think it is much better than a .500 team. I was a little reluctant to go out on a limb like you to make the point that the team is currently 39-30.

[Spudboy]

So why do you say they're a .500 team?

 

I believe that over the course of the entire season that the Sox will be at or about .500.

 

The rotation is only 3 deep which is a problem. Not all players will be hitting well all of the time. Depth, which was a strong point for this team, is now a weakness with several injuries concurrent.

 

The Sox are having a tough time with teams with good records. The AL East is no joke, despite what many say about it. There are 3-4 teams that could win it. The Sox play these teams what, 19 times each?

 

We all felt that feel good vibe when they were pounding the ball game after game. Now I think that I see what this team is.

 

This is just how I see it, of course.

 

Oh, I don't think that the rotation woes will be solved this year either. Unless DD gets very lucky or he just opens the vault.

[a700hitter]

I believe that over the course of the entire season that the Sox will be at or about .500.

 

The rotation is only 3 deep which is a problem. Not all players will be hitting well all of the time. Depth, which was a strong point for this team, is now a weakness with several injuries concurrent.

 

The Sox are having a tough time with teams with good records. The AL East is no joke, despite what many say about it. There are 3-4 teams that could win it. The Sox play these teams what, 19 times each?

 

We all felt that feel good vibe when they were pounding the ball game after game. Now I think that I see what this team is.

 

This is just how I see it, of course.

 

Oh, I don't think that the rotation woes will be solved this year either. Unless DD gets very lucky or he just opens the vault.

Also, we will have to play the Orioles a lot and we have trouble with them, and look out, the Jays bats are heating up.

[Bellhorn04]

You are what your record says you are.

[a700hitter]

You are what your record says you are.

Going out on a limb again. You are quite the risk taker.

[bosoxmal]

On tbe positive side, anyone noticed that Chris Sale has given up 26 hits in his last 19 1/3 innings? (3 starts) He is far from being dominant!

[User Name]

Sale is going to do to us what Bubba did to Subway Jared when he got to prison. We need to get him out of the game quickly and feast on their MRP.

[Bellhorn04]

Going out on a limb again. You are quite the risk taker.

 

I'm sticking with the facts on this one and you're engaging in what-ifs. I'm very comfortable with my position.

[a700hitter]

I'm sticking with the facts on this one and you're engaging in what-ifs. I'm very comfortable with my position.

and I will very confidently predict that there will be a game tonight weather permitting and one team will win and the other will lose.

[a700hitter]

Sale is going to do to us what Bubba did to Subway Jared when he got to prison. We need to get him out of the game quickly and feast on their MRP.

Give us a foot long?

[User Name]

Give us a foot long?

 

And an easier time doing #2, if you know what I mean.

[Spudboy]

and I will very confidently predict that there will be a game tonight weather permitting and one team will win and the other will lose.

 

 

This reminds me of the time I was driving down to the Cape in my van with my Girlfriend. We were stoned to the bejezuz.

 

She looked at the passing vista of cranberry bogs and marshes and proclaimed " Those trees are always dead".

[Spudboy]

And an easier time doing #2, if you know what I mean.

 

I doubt that! But I will never know!!!

[Bellhorn04]

and I will very confidently predict that there will be a game tonight weather permitting and one team will win and the other will lose.

 

Yeah yeah...you are just trying to keep steering this further away from the original debate because you had nothing.

[Kimmi]

Pythagorean deserves some respect. IMO of course.

did anyone really predict 69 wins for the 2012 team?

year / pyth / diff from actual

2015 81-81 (+3 wins from actual)

2014 72-90 (+1)

2013 100-62 (+3)

2012 74-88 (+5)

2011 94-68 (+4)

2010 88-74 (-1)

2009 93-69 (-2)

2008 95-67 (0)

 

Pythagorean W-L deserves a lot of respect. It does a better job of predicting what a team's record will be for the remainder of the season than the actual W-L record does.

[Kimmi]

I believe that over the course of the entire season that the Sox will be at or about .500.

 

The rotation is only 3 deep which is a problem. Not all players will be hitting well all of the time. Depth, which was a strong point for this team, is now a weakness with several injuries concurrent.

 

The Sox are having a tough time with teams with good records. The AL East is no joke, despite what many say about it. There are 3-4 teams that could win it. The Sox play these teams what, 19 times each?

 

We all felt that feel good vibe when they were pounding the ball game after game. Now I think that I see what this team is.

 

This is just how I see it, of course.

 

Oh, I don't think that the rotation woes will be solved this year either. Unless DD gets very lucky or he just opens the vault.

 

What?

 

As MVP already posted, if the Sox go .500 the rest of the season, they will finish with 86 wins.

 

So you think they will play less than .500 ball the rest of the way out? In order to finish at 81-81, they need to win .452 the remainder of the season.

[Spudboy]

What?

 

As MVP already posted, if the Sox go .500 the rest of the season, they will finish with 86 wins.

 

So you think they will play less than .500 ball the rest of the way out? In order to finish at 81-81, they need to win .452 the remainder of the season.

 

Hardly unprecedented.

[Kimmi]

Hardly unprecedented.

 

No, it's not unprecedented, I'll give you that.

[a700hitter]

Yeah yeah...you are just trying to keep steering this further away from the original debate because you had nothing.

No, I stand by my statement that but for the good fortune of Wright becoming an overnight success, this is a .500 team. That was my original statement which you disputed.

[SoxnCycles]

Nothing like a mediocre home stand to bring out the Doom & Gloomers...

[a700hitter]

.500 is not doom and gloom. It is progress from BC.

[User Name]

The June swoon is real tho.