Christian Vazquez

[cp176]

5 catchers:

Swihart

Vazquez

Hanigan

Leon

Holaday

 

forgot about Holaday. 5 pretty capable backstops none of which is an All-Star. Leon has to be the front runner. I'm just not sure that the front office is sold on either one of them being anything extra special going forward. We will just have to wait and see. Swihart is definitely back in the mix.

[bosoxmal]

Pete Abraham has tweeted--- Dombrowski mentioned the Benintendi-Bradley-Betts​ OF being “entrenched for a long time.”

 

That's typical propaganda. If anyone thinks Bradley is going to play CF and hit .220 they are dead wrong. DD is not going to say "It looks like Bradley can't cut the mustard, and we'll get what we can for him." No, he's going to say exactly what he said, and hope some GM wants to talk him into trading JBJ for a starting pitcher. I've seen a couple of Bradley's interviews with the press. He is very liakable, that's for sure, and "the three Bees" sounds good, but that will change by the end of spring training. AND I HOPE I'M DEAD WRONG!

[cp176]

I don't know what will become of JBJ this off-season but if anybody thinks that he might hit as low as .220 I agree that they would be dead wrong.

[moonslav59]

Catcher OPS

.845 Leon (283 PAs)

.720 Swi (74)

.585 Vaz (184)

.500 Holaday (35)

.468 Hanigan (113)

 

Team: .250 8 60 (.665 OPS)

 

Innings: Leon 600, Vaz 439, Hanigan 264, Holaday 85 & Swihart 53

 

fangraphs defensive score from 2014-2016:

13.8 Leon (906 innings) 7 DRS

12.6 Vaz (897) 4 DRS

6.3 Swi (740) -10 DRS

6.2 Han (718) -2 DRS

2.2 Ross (418) -5 DRS

1.5 AJ P (540) -5 DRS

0.7 Holaday (85) 0 DRS

0.5 Butler (49) 0 DRS

 

 

[moonslav59]

JBJ might end up being streaky. I seriously doubt he ends up anywhere near .220 any season.

 

JBJ's recent 2 year sample size is now up to 891 PAs:

 

.262 36 130

.345 OBP

.489 SLG

.834 OPS

119 wRC+ (same as Pedey/ better than Bogey)

7.3 WAR in 230 games. That's almost a 5.0 WAR per 162 games.

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by moonslav59

[cp176]

Catcher OPS

.845 Leon (283 PAs)

.720 Swi (74)

.585 Vaz (184)

.500 Holaday (35)

.468 Hanigan (113)

 

Team: .250 8 60 (.665 OPS)

 

Innings: Leon 600, Vaz 439, Hanigan 264, Holaday 85 & Swihart 53

 

fangraphs defensive score from 2014-2016:

13.8 Leon (906 innings) 7 DRS

12.6 Vaz (897) 4 DRS

6.3 Swi (740) -10 DRS

6.2 Han (718) -2 DRS

2.2 Ross (418) -5 DRS

1.5 AJ P (540) -5 DRS

0.7 Holaday (85) 0 DRS

0.5 Butler (49) 0 DRS

 

 

 

Thanks for posting this. I kind of suspected as much just based on watching them catch. Roughly a years difference in age and the better catcher in all respects is Sandy Leon. Does not surprise me. I am happy that we have them both but even the suggestion that Vazquez might suddenly become a better catcher is a stretch. If they both hit .220, Sandy would likely still get the nod.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for posting this. I kind of suspected as much just based on watching them catch. Roughly a years difference in age and the better catcher in all respects is Sandy Leon. Does not surprise me. I am happy that we have them both but even the suggestion that Vazquez might suddenly become a better catcher is a stretch. If they both hit .220, Sandy would likely still get the nod.

 

What's surprising is Swihart's almost equal defensive score as Hanigan.

 

[Kimmi]

Thanks for posting this. I kind of suspected as much just based on watching them catch. Roughly a years difference in age and the better catcher in all respects is Sandy Leon. Does not surprise me. I am happy that we have them both but even the suggestion that Vazquez might suddenly become a better catcher is a stretch. If they both hit .220, Sandy would likely still get the nod.

 

It is not a stretch that Vazquez might be the better overall catcher between him and Leon. This is not to knock Leon, of whom I'm a big fan, but Vazquez sat out a year due to injury and then was rushed back.

 

Vazquez' defense in 2014 was superb, albeit in a small sample. However, Vazquez had superb defensive numbers in the minors as well. For those who aren't a fan of numbers, he was highly touted defensively by the scouts as well. He had a reputation as being an elite defender, and that reputation was supported by the stats.

 

Vazquez' injury caused a set back. Whether he can overcome that set back and return to his elite status remains to be seen. However, thinking that he can be a better catcher than Leon is not a stretch.

[moonslav59]

It is not a stretch that Vazquez might be the better overall catcher between him and Leon. This is not to knock Leon, of whom I'm a big fan, but Vazquez sat out a year due to injury and then was rushed back.

 

Vazquez' defense in 2014 was superb, albeit in a small sample. However, Vazquez had superb defensive numbers in the minors as well. For those who aren't a fan of numbers, he was highly touted defensively by the scouts as well. He had a reputation as being an elite defender, and that reputation was supported by the stats.

 

Vazquez' injury caused a set back. Whether he can overcome that set back and return to his elite status remains to be seen. However, thinking that he can be a better catcher than Leon is not a stretch.

 

Agreed. Also, few catchers are that good defensively at that age (Vaz in 2014).

[cp176]

It is not a stretch that Vazquez might be the better overall catcher between him and Leon. This is not to knock Leon, of whom I'm a big fan, but Vazquez sat out a year due to injury and then was rushed back.

 

Vazquez' defense in 2014 was superb, albeit in a small sample. However, Vazquez had superb defensive numbers in the minors as well. For those who aren't a fan of numbers, he was highly touted defensively by the scouts as well. He had a reputation as being an elite defender, and that reputation was supported by the stats.

 

Vazquez' injury caused a set back. Whether he can overcome that set back and return to his elite status remains to be seen. However, thinking that he can be a better catcher than Leon is not a stretch.

 

Poor choice of words perhaps in using "stretch" but I would say that it would also not be a stretch to assume that Leon continues to improve as well. What do Leon's numbers say about him? I hope that Vazquez does become a statistically elite catcher.

[S5Dewey]

That's typical propaganda. If anyone thinks Bradley is going to play CF and hit .220 they are dead wrong. DD is not going to say "It looks like Bradley can't cut the mustard, and we'll get what we can for him." No, he's going to say exactly what he said, and hope some GM wants to talk him into trading JBJ for a starting pitcher. I've seen a couple of Bradley's interviews with the press. He is very liakable, that's for sure, and "the three Bees" sounds good, but that will change by the end of spring training. AND I HOPE I'M DEAD WRONG!

 

Where did you drag up this .220 thing? He has an OPS of ~.800 over the past two years and is one of the elite CF's in the league.

 

My interpretation of what DD said is that as long as these three guys play as expected they're entrenched for a long time as our outfield. If JBJ hits .220 his position on the team is in serious jeopardy, just like Bogaerts or Pedey or anyone else on the team, but there's nothing to make one think that's going to happen. I find it unrealistic to think that JBJ is going to revert to what he was in 2014 when he's had two good seasons since then.

 

Probably Moon (or someone else) will come up with data to ruin this, but it appears to me that JBJ is only streaky with his power. I'd predict that day-in, day-out he'll continue to be a .250-.275 hitter who will go on "power tears" that will keep his OPS at ~.800. That makes him a great candidate for the 6-7-8 spot in the order. When that is combined with his defense... he's entrenched.

[Dojji]

Poor choice of words perhaps in using "stretch" but I would say that it would also not be a stretch to assume that Leon continues to improve as well. What do Leon's numbers say about him? I hope that Vazquez does become a statistically elite catcher.

 

Leon was considered Vazquez Light when he was brought in. His defensive stats and scouting rates also put him among the top defensive catching prospecfts and he was considered a very capable defender. The question with Leon is whether the progress with the bat is at least partially genuine. If the .800 OPS is for real he's an All-Star, but it's almost definitely not for real, the question is where the real level is. If he was complete flash in the pan he's still easily a capable big league backup catcher, albeit one that won't hit for you. He'd be the guy that starts a few games, maybe caddies a finicky starter, and comes in for your stick-first starting catcher in close-and-late situations to minimize mistakes. Guy like that can make himself useful even if the offense just isn't there at all.

 

The real problem for both Vazquez and Leon is that theyre both such similar catchers. If you just sticl both of them on the roster and wait to see which one claims the starting job, what the hell do you do when the answer is "neither?" We thought this was the conundrum we were dealing with last year with Vazquez and Swihart, and the answer was Leon. How long do you keep these two on your roster if neither of them is hitting and neither of them have options and Swihart is right there waiting?

[cp176]

Leon was considered Vazquez Light when he was brought in. His defensive stats and scouting rates also put him among the top defensive catching prospecfts and he was considered a very capable defender. The question with Leon is whether the progress with the bat is at least partially genuine. If the .800 OPS is for real he's an All-Star, but it's almost definitely not for real, the question is where the real level is. If he was complete flash in the pan he's still easily a capable big league backup catcher, albeit one that won't hit for you. He'd be the guy that starts a few games, maybe caddies a finicky starter, and comes in for your stick-first starting catcher in close-and-late situations to minimize mistakes. Guy like that can make himself useful even if the offense just isn't there at all.

 

The real problem for both Vazquez and Leon is that theyre both such similar catchers. If you just sticl both of them on the roster and wait to see which one claims the starting job, what the hell do you do when the answer is "neither?" We thought this was the conundrum we were dealing with last year with Vazquez and Swihart, and the answer was Leon. How long do you keep these two on your roster if neither of them is hitting and neither of them have options and Swihart is right there waiting?

 

I pretty much totally agree with this. In my strange way, I'm saying that they could potentially be the same guy. For most us, the catching position does not look like an issue at present but it sure could be going forward. We may have two catchers battling for a starting job who ultimately wind up being backups. With respect to the team in general, the catching position is just one other spot that does not look as though there is definite clarity. We still don't really know what we have!

[Bellhorn04]

I pretty much totally agree with this. In my strange way, I'm saying that they could potentially be the same guy. For most us, the catching position does not look like an issue at present but it sure could be going forward. We may have two catchers battling for a starting job who ultimately wind up being backups. With respect to the team in general, the catching position is just one other spot that does not look as though there is definite clarity. We still don't really know what we have!

 

That's all part of the fun.

[cp176]

That's all part of the fun.

 

so true!

[Jack Flap]

Where did you drag up this .220 thing? He has an OPS of ~.800 over the past two years and is one of the elite CF's in the league.

 

My interpretation of what DD said is that as long as these three guys play as expected they're entrenched for a long time as our outfield. If JBJ hits .220 his position on the team is in serious jeopardy, just like Bogaerts or Pedey or anyone else on the team, but there's nothing to make one think that's going to happen. I find it unrealistic to think that JBJ is going to revert to what he was in 2014 when he's had two good seasons since then.

 

Probably Moon (or someone else) will come up with data to ruin this, but it appears to me that JBJ is only streaky with his power. I'd predict that day-in, day-out he'll continue to be a .250-.275 hitter who will go on "power tears" that will keep his OPS at ~.800. That makes him a great candidate for the 6-7-8 spot in the order. When that is combined with his defense... he's entrenched.

 

As another JBJ devotee, I'm not sure I see it that way. Here's his home runs by month in 2016:

 

Apr - 1

May - 8

June - 4

July - 4

Aug - 5

Sept - 4

 

If you figure that April and May basically balanced each other out, that's a pretty consistent season in terms of power...and you'd never guess that August was actually his worst month (.198 BA/.651 OPS).

 

The "streaky JBJ" narrative has gotten a bit carried away, IMO. His OPS was over .800 in four of the six months and .731 or better in every month but August. He looks to me like a guy who had one bad month, as opposed to someone like Shaw who actually went through a drastic decline as the season went on.

[Spudboy]

Good post.

 

Still, with his recent history of batting struggles, I think that we all would like to see more consistency from Bradley.

[bosoxmal]

Agreed. Also, few catchers are that good defensively at that age (Vaz in 2014).

 

Vazquez will be the No. 1 carcher. No doubt about that, Swihart's catching numbers were not bad, but he never looked like he'd make it as a catcher. He was VG in LF, an improving switch hitter, and readu to take over LF. Which he was in the prcess of doing before he was hurt.

[moonslav59]

JBJ has certainly become more consistent, but I think it's still fair to say he's streaky.

 

I'm fine with not counting his first two seasons as a bad "streak", since he was perhaps just adjusting to the bigs, but when he came up in 2015, here's what he's done. It's easy to look at month by month stats to show he's not been that "streaky", but a closer look gives some evidence that he has been.

 

He started his 2015 MLB season going 5 for 46 (May to June) with 1 HR. That's .109 and horrible. He then started August 0 for 13, so that was a start of 5 for 59 for an .085 start.

 

He then went on one of the hottest streaks I've ever seen a Sox player have. He finished August going 28 for 66 (.424)! From Aug9 to 31, he went 26 for 57 (.456) with 5 HRs and 17 XBHs!!! He started Sept going 11 for 22 with 2 Hrs and 7 XHBs. Put the end of August with the start of SEP and he went 37 for 79 (.468) with 7 HRs and 24 XBHs. Batting .468 with nearly 2/3 of thos hits being XBHs is about as great as one can be.

 

However, he finished SEP going 11 for 80 with 2HRs and 4 XBHs. That's back to .138 for an 80 game saample size- certainly enough to call a cold "streak". So, 2015 started out as bad as one can be, in the middle was the hottest streak I think I've ever seen by anybody and in the end was a .138 stretch. That's streaky!

 

Now, a closer look at 2016: compared to 2015, he could be called the poster boy of consistency, but he still had some smaller cold and hot streaks.

 

After 59 PAs, he has a .586 OPS with zero HRs and just 4 XBHs.

 

By May 25th , he had brought his OPS up to 1.042. He had 9 HRs and 13 XBHs in those 142 PAs!

 

By June 17th, he was down to .951 with just 2 HRs and 8 XBHs in those 73 PAs. (12 for 64 for a .189 BA). That's a cold streak by any definition.

 

He then went on a mini-hot streak bringing his OPS back up to .976 by June 25th before cooling off to .909 by July 19th. He had just 1 HRs from June 25th to July 20th. He stayed pretty consistent from July 2nd to July 31st by staying between .915 and .932, but he dropped to .842 by AUG 30th. (.651 OPS in AUG, but if you take away his 3 for 4 AUG 31st with an HR and a 2B, it would have been muc h worse.)

 

From AUG 31st to SEP 29th, he went 25 for 97 (.258), but with 5 HRs.

 

He finished the season going o for 11 with just 1 BB. He went 1 for 10 in the playoffs with 1 HBP. So, he ended 2016 going 1 for 21.

 

All players go up and down. JBJ's 2016 was probably not much more streaky than others, but I wouldn't say he was consistent just because his monthly splits hid some of his cold streaks.

 

 

[Kimmi]

Poor choice of words perhaps in using "stretch" but I would say that it would also not be a stretch to assume that Leon continues to improve as well. What do Leon's numbers say about him? I hope that Vazquez does become a statistically elite catcher.

 

Leon is a very good defensive catcher in his own right. After we found out that Vazquez had to have surgery, I was relieved to hear that the Sox had acquired Leon because of his defensive reputation.

 

Offensively, I'm pretty confident that Leon will be better than he was in 2015 but not as good as he was in 2016. I think he will be about average offensively for a catcher, which will make him a very good catcher overall.

 

Personally, I would hate to give up any of our 3 catchers.

[S5Dewey]

Leon is a very good defensive catcher in his own right. After we found out that Vazquez had to have surgery, I was relieved to hear that the Sox had acquired Leon because of his defensive reputation.

 

Offensively, I'm pretty confident that Leon will be better than he was in 2015 but not as good as he was in 2016. I think he will be about average offensively for a catcher, which will make him a very good catcher overall.

 

Personally, I would hate to give up any of our 3 catchers.

 

I hear ya, Kim. But from a roster standpoint it's going to be tough to justify carrying three catchers. IMO any one of the three is good enough to start for a contender (as opposed to a favorite). IMO if the Sox still have all three of them come April one of them will be stashed in Pawtucket as security against one of the other two not making the grade in Boston.

[Kimmi]

I hear ya, Kim. But from a roster standpoint it's going to be tough to justify carrying three catchers. IMO any one of the three is good enough to start for a contender (as opposed to a favorite). IMO if the Sox still have all three of them come April one of them will be stashed in Pawtucket as security against one of the other two not making the grade in Boston.

 

I agree. They won't carry all 3 on the roster. Since Swihart is the only one with options left, he looks to be the odd man out, at least to start the season. I think starting the year in Pawtucket would actually be a good thing for Swihart.

[moonslav59]

There's a few ways we might carry all 3 catchers:

 

1) An OF'er gets hurt, so Swihart/Young become our LF platoon.

2) JBJ is traded and Beni moves to CF (see above platoon).

3) We trade away Holt, so we have no 5th OF'er.

[S5Dewey]

There's a few ways we might carry all 3 catchers:

 

1) An OF'er gets hurt, so Swihart/Young become our LF platoon.

2) JBJ is traded and Beni moves to CF (see above platoon).

3) We trade away Holt, so we have no 5th OF'er.

 

I can go along with the first two, even though I still don't think JBJ is going anyplace. But in order for us to carry him as a 5th OF his only real position would be as the platoon LF'er. IMO it would make more sense to keep Holt as a super-utility guy.

[cp176]

Leon is a very good defensive catcher in his own right. After we found out that Vazquez had to have surgery, I was relieved to hear that the Sox had acquired Leon because of his defensive reputation.

 

Offensively, I'm pretty confident that Leon will be better than he was in 2015 but not as good as he was in 2016. I think he will be about average offensively for a catcher, which will make him a very good catcher overall.

 

Personally, I would hate to give up any of our 3 catchers.

 

I agree

[cp176]

Vazquez will be the No. 1 carcher. No doubt about that, Swihart's catching numbers were not bad, but he never looked like he'd make it as a catcher. He was VG in LF, an improving switch hitter, and readu to take over LF. Which he was in the prcess of doing before he was hurt.

 

What are you basing your judgement on? I don't get this one. The only difference that I see between Vazquez and Leon is that Leon seems to be developing into a better hitter. They both are very good defenders - Which will be the better hitter? At this point in time - Leon. I don't think that anyone expects Leon to hit the way he did this year but based on the info we have to deal with he looks like the better bet to hit going forward. We are lucky to have two good young defenders but if I had to bet on which one starts going forward - Leon.

[oldtimer]

JBJ has certainly become more consistent, but I think it's still fair to say he's streaky.

 

I'm fine with not counting his first two seasons as a bad "streak", since he was perhaps just adjusting to the bigs, but when he came up in 2015, here's what he's done. It's easy to look at month by month stats to show he's not been that "streaky", but a closer look gives some evidence that he has been.

 

He started his 2015 MLB season going 5 for 46 (May to June) with 1 HR. That's .109 and horrible. He then started August 0 for 13, so that was a start of 5 for 59 for an .085 start.

 

He then went on one of the hottest streaks I've ever seen a Sox player have. He finished August going 28 for 66 (.424)! From Aug9 to 31, he went 26 for 57 (.456) with 5 HRs and 17 XBHs!!! He started Sept going 11 for 22 with 2 Hrs and 7 XHBs. Put the end of August with the start of SEP and he went 37 for 79 (.468) with 7 HRs and 24 XBHs. Batting .468 with nearly 2/3 of thos hits being XBHs is about as great as one can be.

 

However, he finished SEP going 11 for 80 with 2HRs and 4 XBHs. That's back to .138 for an 80 game saample size- certainly enough to call a cold "streak". So, 2015 started out as bad as one can be, in the middle was the hottest streak I think I've ever seen by anybody and in the end was a .138 stretch. That's streaky!

 

Now, a closer look at 2016: compared to 2015, he could be called the poster boy of consistency, but he still had some smaller cold and hot streaks.

 

After 59 PAs, he has a .586 OPS with zero HRs and just 4 XBHs.

 

By May 25th , he had brought his OPS up to 1.042. He had 9 HRs and 13 XBHs in those 142 PAs!

 

By June 17th, he was down to .951 with just 2 HRs and 8 XBHs in those 73 PAs. (12 for 64 for a .189 BA). That's a cold streak by any definition.

 

He then went on a mini-hot streak bringing his OPS back up to .976 by June 25th before cooling off to .909 by July 19th. He had just 1 HRs from June 25th to July 20th. He stayed pretty consistent from July 2nd to July 31st by staying between .915 and .932, but he dropped to .842 by AUG 30th. (.651 OPS in AUG, but if you take away his 3 for 4 AUG 31st with an HR and a 2B, it would have been muc h worse.)

 

From AUG 31st to SEP 29th, he went 25 for 97 (.258), but with 5 HRs.

 

He finished the season going o for 11 with just 1 BB. He went 1 for 10 in the playoffs with 1 HBP. So, he ended 2016 going 1 for 21.

 

All players go up and down. JBJ's 2016 was probably not much more streaky than others, but I wouldn't say he was consistent just because his monthly splits hid some of his cold streaks.

 

 

 

I'll repeat myself from the middle in the 2016 season. JBJ has a tendency to over swing, presumably to add power when he makes contact. When he does that, his swing gets longer and he tends to loop it, perhaps to add loft to the ball. The problem with that approach is JBJ has difficulty making regular contact when going with the longer swing. In my opinion, JBJ should work on a compact and level swing. He could improve his contact rate doing that and perhaps he would lose a little power, but he has enough to still hit home runs while making that change. Failure for him to make a change will relegate him to the same type of performance as this year or perhaps even worse, since the pitchers seem to have him figured out. I like the kid and think he has additional upside, but he and the coaches need to work to make changes during the off season.

[moonslav59]

I can go along with the first two, even though I still don't think JBJ is going anyplace. But in order for us to carry him as a 5th OF his only real position would be as the platoon LF'er. IMO it would make more sense to keep Holt as a super-utility guy.

 

Well, it depends on what we can get for Holt and what that plus brings us compared to having Hernandez in the IF and Swi in the OF.

 

Also, having 3 catchers would allow us to PH freely for one late in games, knowing we have the third guy in case ofan in-game injury to the 2nd.

 

With Vaz hovering around .600, that could be a big plus.

[moonslav59]

I'll repeat myself from the middle in the 2016 season. JBJ has a tendency to over swing, presumably to add power when he makes contact. When he does that, his swing gets longer and he tends to loop it, perhaps to add loft to the ball. The problem with that approach is JBJ has difficulty making regular contact when going with the longer swing. In my opinion, JBJ should work on a compact and level swing. He could improve his contact rate doing that and perhaps he would lose a little power, but he has enough to still hit home runs while making that change. Failure for him to make a change will relegate him to the same type of performance as this year or perhaps even worse, since the pitchers seem to have him figured out. I like the kid and think he has additional upside, but he and the coaches need to work to make changes during the off season.

 

I totally agree, and it seems like this analysis is simple enough for them to figure it out and stop the "over swing" in its tracks every time it starts to happen.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll repeat myself from the middle in the 2016 season. JBJ has a tendency to over swing, presumably to add power when he makes contact. When he does that, his swing gets longer and he tends to loop it, perhaps to add loft to the ball. The problem with that approach is JBJ has difficulty making regular contact when going with the longer swing. In my opinion, JBJ should work on a compact and level swing. He could improve his contact rate doing that and perhaps he would lose a little power, but he has enough to still hit home runs while making that change. Failure for him to make a change will relegate him to the same type of performance as this year or perhaps even worse, since the pitchers seem to have him figured out. I like the kid and think he has additional upside, but he and the coaches need to work to make changes during the off season.

 

Obviously what you're referring to is how JBJ looked at the end of the year. But if he can put up the same numbers next year as he did this year, we should be very happy. He ended up with an OPS+ of 116, so he was 16% better than average. That's better than a lot of us thought he would be.

 

I'm sure the coaches go over a lot of film with him and that he and they are aware of the issues that cause all the strikeouts etc. But 'fixing it' is no simple matter. Major league pitchers are really really good and they study a lot of film and computer analysis too.

 

I don't mean to get preachy about it, I'm just saying we need to have realistic expectations and we need to realize he's probably working his ass off and that he and the coaches knows what's going on with his swing better than any of us do.