2016 Prospects Thread

[Hugh2]

Yep, and lets hope that they got it right with regard to Espinoza.

 

You mean, hope they got it right with Pomeranz?

[Hugh2]

Definitely. I'd rather deal with the Michael Bowdens, Lars Andersons, and Garin Cecchinis of the world not working out than trade away the next Bogaerts, Betts, or Bradley and have it come back to haunt you.

 

Also, not that it probably matters, but I really doubt Owens was ever an "untouchable" piece in our system. He was a good, not elite, pitching prospect for a few years, but not every guy that we liked and didn't end up trading was untouchable. No one knows what Ben might have been offered for Owens at some point...I'd have included him in a Hamels trade scenario without much second thought, but he would not have been the only piece going.

 

The problem is you can't make hindsight decisions, you don't know exactly what prospect is going to boom or bust. Some guys might have more red flags than others like zero power (cecchini) or way too many strike outs (Middlebrooks). Sometimes things like K/BB can be more predictive than other stats in the minors but some guys will always come exceed expectations (Travis Shaw) and many will become exactly who everyone thought he would (Bogaerts).

 

I do agree that Owens was never untouchable, and I never understood the talk of him being a front line starter. I think people were just get excited from his stats, and scouting minor league stats is a poor way to evaluate talent (especially for pitchers). Espinoza, in terms of pure talent, stuff, mechanics, delivery etc etc was probably the best bet we had at having a front line starter in a long time. Now that in no way means he can't be a complete bust. I think a better way of looking at it would be to envision prospects as high probability lottery picks (as in higher than 1 in a million) where Espinoza has a million dollar pay out and someone like Owens has a 100K payout.

[Jack Flap]

Agree, Hugh. The lumping of all prospects together as if they all carry the same degree of risk and reward, or as if what happened with prospect A five years ago has any bearing on what we should do with prospect B, is something of a pet peeve of mine.

[Hugh2]

Agree, Hugh. The lumping of all prospects together as if they all carry the same degree of risk and reward, or as if what happened with prospect A five years ago has any bearing on what we should do with prospect B, is something of a pet peeve of mine.

 

There is an element of chance to all this as well. You can do everything right and some guys just won't develop, and sometimes you get more than you should.

 

To an extent we got lucky that all of Bogaerts, Betts, and JBJ panned out. With honorable mentions to Vasquez, Shaw, and Barnes, I also wouldn't close the book yet on Swihart and Owens. But one thing to consider when evaluating the narrative that we haven't been able to develop pitching in a while is we have not had a blue chip pitching prospect in our system that was the equivalent to a position player prospect like Bogaerts and Betts. Also, high end, cost controlled pitching is the rarest commodity in baseball. Throw in a hint of luck/chance and the Sox aren't exactly in an unfamiliar position. A lot of teams have had these issues as well. I think prospects like Espinoza and Groome are different than the pitching prospects they've had in the past, which ultimately still doesn't guarantee success but conversely the past shouldn't be an excuse to just trade all these guys away. I think Kopech is kind of in-between, I don't think he's the same guy as Espinoza and Groome but he might be a step up from the prospects we've had in the past from Barnes to Owens.

[mvp 78]

Rusney Castillo is OPSing at a clip of .591 in Pawtucket. That's $72 million in the toilet. That is $2 million more than was offered to Lester as an extension.

 

Allen Craig has all of 18 ABs this season in AAA --another $26 million flushed.

 

Hey, this post is in regards to prospects, not unwanted trash!

[a700hitter]

Hey, this post is in regards to prospects, not unwanted trash!

Good point, but I was checking the minor league stats ans their names jumped out at me.

[moonslav59]

Yep, and lets hope that they got it right with regard to Espinoza.

 

I don't think Espi will fail. He probably won't become the next Pedro, but my bet is he gives the Padres more in 5+ seasons than what Pomeranz gives us in 2.4 years.

 

I don't think DD bet on Espi failing. I think he bet on Pomeranz being a solid #2 type for 2.4 years.

 

That being said, our rotation is much better now and for the next two seasons with Pomeranz slotted 3rd or 4th. Our budget is much better structured going forward, which will give us much more flexibility over the next two winters... just long enough to get us over the HanRam contract.

[Hugh2]

I don't think Espi will fail. He probably won't become the next Pedro, but my bet is he gives the Padres more in 5+ seasons than what Pomeranz gives us in 2.4 years.

 

I don't think DD bet on Espi failing. I think he bet on Pomeranz being a solid #2 type for 2.4 years.

 

That being said, our rotation is much better now and for the next two seasons with Pomeranz slotted 3rd or 4th. Our budget is much better structured going forward, which will give us much more flexibility over the next two winters... just long enough to get us over the HanRam contract.

 

I think his biggest risk at this point is the injury risk. You just don't know how an 18 year old will handle the workload of making 32 starts a year. But in terms of pure stuff and a fell for pitching, he appears to be very far ahead of the curve for someone his age.

[mvp 78]

My guess is that he turns into Rubby DeLaRosa, a decent and valuable arm, but not a generational talent.

[Jack Flap]

DD IS DESTROYING THE FARM [/sarc]

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/sean-coyle-claimed-angels-waivers-redsox.html

[Spudboy]

Coyle did look good for a while. I saw him play a few times.

 

Just has not been the same since the injury. I hope he does well for The Angels.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats Michael Kopech has four swinging strikeouts through two innings in Salem, sitting around 98-100 mph.

[Jack Flap]

Kopech finished with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3H, 3 BB, 9 K.

 

Moncada homered twice and is now at .329/.415/.683 with 7 HR and 20 RBI in 21 games in Double-A.

[Hugh2]

Kopech didn't throw 98-100 MPH....he was sitting 98-100 MPH. Easily could have been zero ER's with better control. The first run was a guy who scored who was put on base be a HBP. In the 4th he walked a batter, still had a guy at 1B after a fielders choice who scored on a single after advancing following a Wild pitch and a passed ball. But his stuff was easily electric. This guy might have a floor (within reason of making it to the majors) of a closer and a ceiling of an ACE.

[Hugh2]

Well I know how I'm spending my morning.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/07/podcast-ep-102-groome-signs-dave-deals.html

[mvp 78]

Well I know how I'm spending my morning.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/07/podcast-ep-102-groome-signs-dave-deals.html

 

I like the info these guys have, but some of the production values are very lacking. The whole time they were talking about Pomeranz, I was surprised they didn't get more in depth on his cutter that he developed this offseason, but that's probably because they spend more time scouting prospects than valuing major leaguers. The point they made that I most agreed with was Dombrowski determining the market value for a starter at the deadline and using his prospect stash to fill a major league need. I thought I'd hear more tears about Espinoza leaving, but they didn't sulk too much.

 

The one thing that generally bothers me about Soxprospects is that they value almost everyone as a "second division regular." Maybe that's the ceiling for most prospects, but you can't project everyone to be that.

[Hugh2]

I like the info these guys have, but some of the production values are very lacking. The whole time they were talking about Pomeranz, I was surprised they didn't get more in depth on his cutter that he developed this offseason, but that's probably because they spend more time scouting prospects than valuing major leaguers. The point they made that I most agreed with was Dombrowski determining the market value for a starter at the deadline and using his prospect stash to fill a major league need. I thought I'd hear more tears about Espinoza leaving, but they didn't sulk too much.

 

The one thing that generally bothers me about Soxprospects is that they value almost everyone as a "second division regular." Maybe that's the ceiling for most prospects, but you can't project everyone to be that.

 

Well it is a prospect site, they tend to focus on their guys more. Sometimes podcasts do go more in depth into MLB players but remember they don't have a MLB scouting team so the information there is going to be likely what we all have access too. In terms of all their guys being "2nd division starters" I'd argue that more often than not prospects are nothing more than that. Right now they have 4 players projecting to be impactful everyday players, with 3 more having that kind of ceiling. This doesn't mean more guys aren't there, there was a time when Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts weren't on anyones top 20 and didn't really have any projections. Projecting prospects is an inexact science.

 

What I like about Soxprospects is their honesty, you'd expect them to be homers but sometimes they are more cautious with their guys than other organizations. I remember they were more down on Lars Anderson than most others in the industry, and they never projected Owens to be anything more than a #4 maybe #3 starter. I don't think they are any better than BA, BP, or anyone else but the reason I trust them so much is the simple fact that they have more eyes, more often on our guys than anyone else with the obvious caveat of the teams scouts. They are usually pretty fair, and sox fans who like to follow the minors are lucky to have a resource like them.

[Hugh2]

Although it does seem like they been more cautious with slapping the 7 or 8 on prospects lately. They had no problem slapping an 8 on the 2-8 scale on Bogaerts when he was in A ball and it's not like they got burned by him. The only prospect who I think really burned them in recent years (or at least the most) was Will Middlebrooks, but they will tell you he headlined a much weaker system. If Will Middlebrooks was 4-5 years younger when he was #1 on the site....my guess is he'd probably be in the 5-6 range on the site now.

[mvp 78]

Well it is a prospect site, they tend to focus on their guys more. Sometimes podcasts do go more in depth into MLB players but remember they don't have a MLB scouting team so the information there is going to be likely what we all have access too. In terms of all their guys being "2nd division starters" I'd argue that more often than not prospects are nothing more than that. Right now they have 4 players projecting to be impactful everyday players, with 3 more having that kind of ceiling. This doesn't mean more guys aren't there, there was a time when Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts weren't on anyones top 20 and didn't really have any projections. Projecting prospects is an inexact science.

 

What I like about Soxprospects is their honesty, you'd expect them to be homers but sometimes they are more cautious with their guys than other organizations. I remember they were more down on Lars Anderson than most others in the industry, and they never projected Owens to be anything more than a #4 maybe #3 starter. I don't think they are any better than BA, BP, or anyone else but the reason I trust them so much is the simple fact that they have more eyes, more often on our guys than anyone else with the obvious caveat of the teams scouts. They are usually pretty fair, and sox fans who like to follow the minors are lucky to have a resource like them.

 

IMO, most of those guys don't have "second division regular" in their future. I think they often rely too much on "ceiling" than what the most likely scenario is.

 

They are a great resource for sure. That second division notation bothers me for some reason. I feel like they are too quick to give a prospect that designation. I get it though. They can't completely bag on everyone and they are honest that there is a substantial drop off after the top 5 or 6 prospects.

[Hugh2]

IMO, most of those guys don't have "second division regular" in their future. I think they often rely too much on "ceiling" than what the most likely scenario is.

 

They are a great resource for sure. That second division notation bothers me for some reason. I feel like they are too quick to give a prospect that designation. I get it though. They can't completely bag on everyone and they are honest that there is a substantial drop off after the top 5 or 6 prospects.

 

In their defense I think they have a good system of slapping a projection with a ceiling/floor ranking. For example they have Groome at a 6 with a (3-7) range, but when you actually read the scouting reports they often use the terminology "potential to be" when saying a guy is likely going to be this or that. A lot can happen from now and into the future.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com placed Groome in front of Kopech at #4.

 

Ockimey jumped from #37 to #8.

 

Check out the rest...

 

http://soxprospects.com/index.html

[Hugh2]

soxprospects.com placed Groome in front of Kopech at #4.

 

Ockimey jumped from #37 to #8.

 

Check out the rest...

 

http://soxprospects.com/index.html

 

If they didn't make the Ziegler trade it would be funny to see Luis Basabe, next to Luis Basabe. Probably.

[mvp 78]

If they didn't make the Ziegler trade it would be funny to see Luis Basabe, next to Luis Basabe. Probably.

 

I think they said Basabe v 2.0 would be somewhere 10-13. I thought it was interesting that the reason Basabe v 2.0 was way down the list was because the Basabe's switched numbers from the prior year so they were confusing them for most of the preseason. Those kooky Basabes.

[Hugh2]

I think they said Basabe v 2.0 would be somewhere 10-13. I thought it was interesting that the reason Basabe v 2.0 was way down the list was because the Basabe's switched numbers from the prior year so they were confusing them for most of the preseason. Those kooky Basabes.

 

Yes it's pretty confusing with the same first and last name and even middle names that are only a couple letters off. I do believe Alexander was considered the better prospect and still may but Alejandro definitely closed the gap between the two of them. He might of been higher in some teams eyes, perhaps he was their preference.

[moonslav59]

Imagine our top prospect list had we kept Margot, Guerra, Allen, Basabe, Espi and others!

 

Imagine if Swihart wasn't forced into losing his prospect status!

 

Maybe....

 

1. Moncada

2. Swihart

3. Benintendi

4. Espinoza

5. Margot

6. Devers

7. Groome

8. Kopech

9. Guerra

10. Travis

11. Basabe

12. Hernandez

13. Basabe

14. Dubon

15. Ockimey

(Edited)

Edited July 20, 2016 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Why would Guerra be that high? He's fallen off a cliff this year.

 

Maybe I'm just confused by your rankings as they list Groome and Kopech twice...

[moonslav59]

Why would Guerra be that high? He's fallen off a cliff this year.

 

Maybe I'm just confused by your rankings as they list Groome and Kopech twice...

 

LOL, I'll go back and edit.

 

on Guerra, I don't generally rise or drop prospects based on a half season of doing well or falling off a cliff.

[mvp 78]

I was only concerned because I saw Guerra ahead of Groome and couldn't wrap my head around it for a minute.

[Hugh2]

Devers is absolutely destroying baseballs. In July he's .379/.433/.695 From what I've read his defense is pretty good too. Anyone get out to see a Salem game this year????

[moonslav59]

Imagine our top prospect list had we kept Margot, Guerra, Allen, Basabe, Espi and others!

 

Imagine if Swihart wasn't forced into losing his prospect status!

 

Maybe....

 

1. Moncada

2. Swihart

3. Benintendi

4. Espinoza

5. Margot

6. Devers

7. Groome

8. Kopech

9. Guerra

10. Travis

11. Basabe

12. Hernandez

13. Basabe

14. Dubon

15. Ockimey

(Edited)

 

When you look at the list above, and then the list of young players non prospects, the list is eye-popping!

 

23: Betts, Bogey, ERod, Hernandez (Owens)

25: Vazquez (Marrero)

26: JBJ, Shaw, Smith, Barnes (N Ramirez)

27: Porcello, Pomeranz, Hembree, Leon, R Ross, Rutledge (Elias)

 

Once Papi retires, Uehara and Ziegler move on and Hanigan gets squeezed out, assuming no old vet signings, HanRam will be our oldest player next year at age 33!