Red Sox' relative strengths and weaknesses

[a700hitter]

From PA:

 

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 9m9 minutes ago

 

Good news for Red Sox:Christian Vazquez's last 10 games in Puerto Rico:.366/.381/.415

 

Very small sample, but if he can hit decently, coupled with that defense, he needs to be our #1 catcher.

 

If Vazquez pans out, I would very much like to see Swihart tried out at first/third base. It would be great to have that 3rd catcher on the team, just in case.

If Vasquez is going to be the Red Sox catcher of the future, Swihart's highest and best use to the Red Sox is probably as a trade chip as his bat is not a premium bat for first base or third base.

[Dojji]

I think we have too many question marks on the offensive and defensive sides to make us feel like instant contenders. I think we have some things to work out. With good luck we contend this year, with average luck we're a year away as our youngsters mature, with bad luck we're a .500 team again.

[SoxHop]

I think we have too many question marks on the offensive and defensive sides to make us feel like instant contenders. I think we have some things to work out. With good luck we contend this year, with average luck we're a year away as our youngsters mature, with bad luck we're a .500 team again.

 

Yea. Kelly, Porcello, Buch are all pretty much question marks in my mind.

 

JBJ and Castillo hitting is a question mark. Panda, Vasquez also hitting.

 

Taz and Koji somewhat too.

 

And Hanley at first is a super duper question mark.

 

We have some young talent, and we have talent in their twilight of their career. What we don't have is much proven top of their career talent.

 

I still look at the second half of last year though.......... we played really well. I hope that was more the real thing than the first of the year. If so, with the additions made, we will be very good.

[cp176]

Swihart is an above-average catcher right now who should continue to improve. That said, Vasquez is a generational talent defensively.

 

I was wrong. Swihart is an above average catcher right now and he will get better if he continues to catch. I guess I said that because when I saw him last year, it looked like he had some trouble keeping the pitch in the dirt in front of him. I think that it was Buchholz who wanted Hannigan to catch for him also (might be wrong there too) which also troubled me. I also realize that some of his passed ball total can be attributed to the fact that he was catching Steven Wright. I think that Vasquez is a serious defensive upgrade but I do like the kid. Have to say though that if we really knew that Vasquez would be ready to go by the first of May, I would be dangling this guy out there as part of a package to get us more pitching. You never know when somebody might take the bait.

[Kimmi]

If Vasquez is going to be the Red Sox catcher of the future, Swihart's highest and best use to the Red Sox is probably as a trade chip as his bat is not a premium bat for first base or third base.

 

I agree that Swihart would probably be worth more to us in a trade than he would be at first or third base. I just hate to see him go.

[Kimmi]

The team has some question marks, but I have always felt like they were only a few key offseason acquisitions away from contending this season. I would really like to see another #2/3 starter added, but even as is, I think the Sox are contenders.

[Kimmi]

I was wrong. Swihart is an above average catcher right now and he will get better if he continues to catch. I guess I said that because when I saw him last year, it looked like he had some trouble keeping the pitch in the dirt in front of him. I think that it was Buchholz who wanted Hannigan to catch for him also (might be wrong there too) which also troubled me. I also realize that some of his passed ball total can be attributed to the fact that he was catching Steven Wright. I think that Vasquez is a serious defensive upgrade but I do like the kid. Have to say though that if we really knew that Vasquez would be ready to go by the first of May, I would be dangling this guy out there as part of a package to get us more pitching. You never know when somebody might take the bait.

 

Swihart was the worst defensive catcher in baseball last season. In fairness to him, however, he was thrown into the fire well before he was ready, and he did show some improvement as the year went on.

 

He has always been projected to be an above average defender. He will be a very good overall catcher.

[Spudboy]

I agree that Swihart would probably be worth more to us in a trade than he would be at first or third base. I just hate to see him go.

 

I agree with this big time. Swihart has not put up the numbers to justify 3rd or 1st yet but the kid shows good technique at the plate and seems to be getting better before our eyes as demonstrated in the second half of 2014. He's cheap and cost controlled and pretty athletic, too.

 

Trading him for anyone now would be tough to do unless it was for a big time talent.

[a700hitter]

Yea. Kelly, Porcello, Buch are all pretty much question marks in my mind.

 

JBJ and Castillo hitting is a question mark. Panda, Vasquez also hitting.

 

Taz and Koji somewhat too.

 

And Hanley at first is a super duper question mark.

 

We have some young talent, and we have talent in their twilight of their career. What we don't have is much proven top of their career talent.

 

I still look at the second half of last year though.......... we played really well. I hope that was more the real thing than the first of the year. If so, with the additions made, we will be very good.

 

Great sig.

[jacksonianmarch]

I disagree on the whole Seihart is above average thing. He was the worst catcher in the AL by defensive metrics and while his offense was promising, it wasn't enough to offset how bad his defense was. Nowadays, catchers must be defense first guys, and he certainly isnt

[Palodios]

I disagree on the whole Seihart is above average thing. He was the worst catcher in the AL by defensive metrics and while his offense was promising, it wasn't enough to offset how bad his defense was. Nowadays, catchers must be defense first guys, and he certainly isnt

 

Which defensive metrics are you looking at? You keep saying this, but I haven't found much out there saying he was any worse than middle of the pack.

[cp176]

Which defensive metrics are you looking at? You keep saying this, but I haven't found much out there saying he was any worse than middle of the pack.

 

Wow - I am glad to see this. I was beginning to have some doubts. Middle of the pack for the year. Better than that over the last half.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart had the lowest defensive runs saved (-16) in the major leagues

[SoxHop]

Wow - I am glad to see this. I was beginning to have some doubts. Middle of the pack for the year. Better than that over the last half.

 

Yea, I feel the same. You could tell Swihart was not a great defender. But I never thought he was horrible or worse than mediocre. In fact I was fairly comfortable with him receiving.

 

Now calling a game and working with the pitchers was another thing and is hard to tell watching a game.

 

Wait, now that I think about it. Didn't most the of staff have a lower ERA with Hannigan than Swihart, especially Porcello. That speaks volumes.

Edited December 13, 2015 by SoxHop

[SoxHop]

Great sig.

 

Yes, than Sangria one is fantastic......

 

That stat one I thought was interesting. That's a Vin Scully quote.....

[SoxHop]

Swihart had the lowest defensive runs saved (-16) in the major leagues

 

How is that calculated?

 

I'd like to see that stat measured minus the games he caught Wright.

 

I also wonder what the first month of stats look like compared to the last couple of months in the season. Swihart when he first came up had this look in his face of "WHAT THE HECK AM I DOING HERE". Which was totally understandable considering the situation. I wonder, along with his hitting if he settled in the with defense also.

[jacksonianmarch]

I do not know how it is computed. He was also second worst in blocking (-3 runs saved)

[SoxHop]

Swihart was the worst defensive catcher in baseball last season. In fairness to him, however, he was thrown into the fire well before he was ready, and he did show some improvement as the year went on.

 

He has always been projected to be an above average defender. He will be a very good overall catcher.

 

Now if he turns out to be an above average defender, wouldn't he than be the best catcher in the league? I think he was the top offensive catcher last year, or was at one point.

 

I like defense behind the plate. I tell myself I'm a person who believes that defense is what matters in the catching position. But having a catcher who can spray line drives all over the place like Swihart is hard to pass up......... if we do trade him. We better get something really good.

[SoxHop]

I do not know how it is computed. He was also second worst in blocking (-3 runs saved)

 

Interesting...... my eyes deceived me............ not like that hasn't been the first time....

[jacksonianmarch]

Now if he turns out to be an above average defender, wouldn't he than be the best catcher in the league? I think he was the top offensive catcher last year, or was at one point.

 

I like defense behind the plate. I tell myself I'm a person who believes that defense is what matters in the catching position. But having a catcher who can spray line drives all over the place like Swihart is hard to pass up......... if we do trade him. We better get something really good.

 

Yeah, he wasn't close to the top offensive catcher in the league. If Wieters had been healthy, Swihart would have been the 4th best offensive catcher IN THE DIVISION

[SoxHop]

Yeah, he wasn't close to the top offensive catcher in the league. If Wieters had been healthy, Swihart would have been the 4th best offensive catcher IN THE DIVISION

 

Let's give him a month or two to settle in and get the deer in the headlights look to go away. Then check his second half stats compared to the league.

[a700hitter]

Yes, than Sangria one is fantastic......

 

That stat one I thought was interesting. That's a Vin Scully quote.....

 

I am familiar with the Vin Scully quote. I have quoted it myself and agree with it.

Edited December 13, 2015 by a700hitter

[Palodios]

Swihart had the lowest defensive runs saved (-16) in the major leagues

 

Fangraphs says -9, but still not great numbers. It sounds like most of the industry is pretty unconcerned, and figure he's dealing with an adjustment period. He's had to deal with a completely unfamiliar staff as a rookie. 63 IP from Steven Wright certainly didn't help either.

 

And despite DRS, his CS%, and receiving stats were fine.

[cp176]

Swihart is an above-average catcher right now who should continue to improve. That said, Vasquez is a generational talent defensively.

 

i'll go with this one.

[Bellhorn04]

i'll go with this one.

 

Yeah, that one works for me too.

[jacksonianmarch]

The anticipation is that he will improve the things he sucks at now (game calling, pitch framing, blocking, etc). But it's not like his ceiling is Johnny Bench here. His defensive ceiling is a middle of the pack catcher. Vasquez has a defensive ceiling of a Johnny Bench

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, trends change. Back 20 yrs ago, catcher was an offensive position. Get the fat guy who had good enough knees and an arm and he caught. Now, the position is a bunch of little guys who are basically nimble as a hockey goalie and have cannons for arms and if they hit, then bonus

[Kimmi]

I agree with this big time. Swihart has not put up the numbers to justify 3rd or 1st yet but the kid shows good technique at the plate and seems to be getting better before our eyes as demonstrated in the second half of 2014. He's cheap and cost controlled and pretty athletic, too.

 

Trading him for anyone now would be tough to do unless it was for a big time talent.

 

It's also quite possible that Swihart's offense improves if he's playing a less grueling position. As a catcher, his top priority is not his offense, but his work with the ptiching staff, where offense typically suffers. That would not be the case if he played 1st or 3rd.

[Kimmi]

Yea, I feel the same. You could tell Swihart was not a great defender. But I never thought he was horrible or worse than mediocre. In fact I was fairly comfortable with him receiving.

 

Now calling a game and working with the pitchers was another thing and is hard to tell watching a game.

 

Wait, now that I think about it. Didn't most the of staff have a lower ERA with Hannigan than Swihart, especially Porcello. That speaks volumes.

 

Let me first preface everything that I'm going to say with the "small sample size" caveat. Yes, this is a full season worth of data, but with defensive metrics, especially for catchers, it's best to use a full 3 years worth of data before deciding whether a catcher is good defensively or not.

 

That said, Swihart was not good defensively last year. As has already been mentioned, he was the worst catcher in baseball in DRS. He was also below average in pitch framing (-1.8 runs above average). He ranked 44 out of 72 qualified catchers. For comparison, Hanigan was 19th at 5.9 RAA.

 

The staff did have a better ERA pitching to Hanigan than they did pitching to Swihart. Kelly and Miley were a full run better pitching to Hanigan, while Porcello and Rodriguez were about .3 runs better. Interestingly enough, Buchholz did not pitch to Swihart last year. He pitched almost exclusively to Leon, with 4 games pitching to Hanigan.

[Kimmi]

How is that calculated?

 

If you have about an hour and the desire to read it, I can send you the links from The Fielding Bible on how it's calculated. Most people are bored to tears by it. As far as I know, pitch framing has not yet been factored into DRS. DRS is based on defensive plays made, stolen bases runs, and pitch blocking runs.