2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Kimmi]

There seems to be this "myth" that all the bad moves were Larry's over ruling Ben. I guess it is because Ben had a more benign public persona. As far as I know there is no objective evidence that substantiates that belief.

 

Several baseball executives stated in an interview that most of the "mistakes" made by Ben came from directives from higher up. That's more evidence than you have to the contrary.

[a700hitter]

If anyone was seduced by Pablo's postseason numbers, it was Lucchino. He's the one always trying to sign "sexy" players.

A sexy doughnut? Seriously? I don't think he was signed as a PR coup.

[a700hitter]

Several baseball executives stated in an interview that most of the "mistakes" made by Ben came from directives from higher up. That's more evidence than you have to the contrary.

Which executives, and were they stating their opinion or do they have first hand knowledge? You make it sound like they have factual knowledge of the decision making process.

[Elktonnick]

Several baseball executives stated in an interview that most of the "mistakes" made by Ben came from directives from higher up. That's more evidence than you have to the contrary.

 

I am going to pull a Kimmi. Who, When and where? I don't recall any such publicized interviews. But I am sure you've heard it somewhere. The proof will be if Ben ever gets an other real baseball job at the chief of baseball operations. Until then I think it is so much wishful thinking because Larry isn't as warm and fuzzy as Ben on TV.

[Bellhorn04]

No Ben got him for his outstanding defense and athleticism. The fact that Sandoval had better post season than regular season numbers had absolutely nothing to do with Ben's signing him.

 

Sandoval's regular season numbers were well above average for a third baseman in the current pitching-dominated phase of baseball.

 

You've got nothing to support your theory.

 

It's no big deal, we all have our pet theories. This is one of yours.

[a700hitter]

I am going to pull a Kimmi. Who, When and where? I don't recall any such publicized interviews. But I am sure you've heard it somewhere. The proof will be if Ben ever gets an other real baseball job at the chief of baseball operations. Until then I think it is so much wishful thinking because Larry isn't as warm and fuzzy as Ben on TV.

She prides herself on backing up her arguments with facts. I am sure that she will come back with something.

[Bellhorn04]

A sexy doughnut? Seriously? I don't think he was signed as a PR coup.

 

He was a fan favorite in San Fran.

 

Lots of fat guys are popular with fans-if they produce. Sox fans loved Rich Garces.

[a700hitter]

He was a fan favorite in San Fran.

 

Lots of fat guys are popular with fans-if they produce. Sox fans loved Rich Garces.

Local popularity doesn't usually travel well. If our management got him for a PR boost, they misfired badly.

[Elktonnick]

Sandoval's regular season numbers were well above average for a third baseman in the current pitching-dominated phase of baseball.

 

You've got nothing to support your theory.

 

It's no big deal, we all have our pet theories. This is one of yours.

 

 

You don't pay fat over weight who may be above average hitters but substandard defensively the kind of money Sandoval got, so it is more of a pet theory there are some data to support the hypothesis. I simply don't believe Cherrington would have gone after Sandoval as hard as he did (ignoring the red flags about his weight) if he hadn't had those outstanding playoff number.,

[Bellhorn04]

Local popularity doesn't usually travel well. If our management got him for a PR boost, they misfired badly.

 

I think they also expected him to be an upgrade at third base.

[Elktonnick]

She prides herself on backing up her arguments with facts. I am sure that she will come back with something.

 

Maybe she will, Maybe she won't. I have never heard anyone say definitively that was the case. It does stretch credibility, however, to say every bad move was some one else's fault. That doesn't strike me as something Cherrington would either admit to or tell to some one outside the organization. Whatever his faults, Cherrington was and is a stand-up guy. I don't see him blaming others for whatever woes may have resulted from deals or trades done on his watch.

[Bellhorn04]

You don't pay fat over weight who may be above average hitters but substandard defensively the kind of money Sandoval got, so it is more of a pet theory there are some data to support the hypothesis. I simply don't believe Cherrington would have gone after Sandoval as hard as he did (ignoring the red flags about his weight) if he hadn't had those outstanding playoff number.,

 

Sandoval had a fWAR of 3.1 in 2014, which is strictly regular season, and translated to a dollar value of $23.4 million by FanGraphs calculations. Those would be the types of numbers a guy like Cherington was looking at. Which would also explain why he went so big on Porcello - a guy who has just about zilch playoff pedigree.

[Bellhorn04]

If Ben was such a big believer in playoff numbers, he would have wanted Lester and Lackey instead of Porcello and Kelly.

[Elktonnick]

Sandoval had a fWAR of 3.1 in 2014, which is strictly regular season, and translated to a dollar value of $23.4 million by FanGraphs calculations. Those would be the types of numbers a guy like Cherington was looking at. Which would also explain why he went so big on Porcello - a guy who has just about zilch playoff pedigree.

 

We already know howFanGraph calculations and projections produce such wide variability in results that from a scientific statistical point of view they are virtually useless as both the results for Sandoval and Porcello illustrate. That being said, here is a fangraph article on Sandoval

 

Which Pablo Sandoval Did the Red Sox Buy

by Eno Sarris - November 24, 2014

 

It makes the point that because of his weight, he should experience a rapid decline. It really calls it question about the wisdom of the Sandoval signing.

[Elktonnick]

If Ben was such a big believer in playoff numbers, he would have wanted Lester and Lackey instead of Porcello and Kelly.

 

I think we all agree that there were other issues involved in both those cases which trumped all otherl considerations.

[Bellhorn04]

We already know howFanGraph calculations and projections produce such wide variability in results that from a scientific statistical point of view they are virtually useless as both the results for Sandoval and Porcello illustrate.

 

Playoff numbers are generally considered to be even more variable, so even more useless. Which makes it so unlikely that they would have been a significant factor in signing Sandoval.

[Bellhorn04]

As Kimmi has pointed out numerous times, and correctly, Sandoval was the #1 free agent third baseman available that offseason. And we certainly needed a third baseman. So while it may have been a terrible signing, there's no real mystery why it happened.

[Elktonnick]

Playoff numbers are generally considered to be even more variable, so even more useless. Which makes it so unlikely that they would have been a significant factor in signing Sandoval.

 

While that is true, it is the only plausible reason for signing him that doesn't make Cherrington look like a total incompetent. I fully expect as the chart on overweight players suggests he'll spend more and more time on the DL, How many years before he is unable to play 3rd except on a part-time basis.

[Elktonnick]

As Kimmi has pointed out numerous times, and correctly, Sandoval was the #1 free agent third baseman available that offseason. And we certainly needed a third baseman. So while it may have been a terrible signing, there's no real mystery why it happened.

 

On that we can agree it was a terrible signing. It cost Cherrington his job.

[Bellhorn04]

On that we can agree it was a terrible signing. It cost Cherrington his job.

 

It was part of the package.

[a700hitter]

I think they also expected him to be an upgrade at third base.

An upgrade weight-wise?

[Northern Star]

As Kimmi has pointed out numerous times, and correctly, Sandoval was the #1 free agent third baseman available that offseason. And we certainly needed a third baseman. So while it may have been a terrible signing, there's no real mystery why it happened.

 

Which just means the free agent class of 3B men wasn't too hot.

[mvp 78]

Headley >>> Sandoval

[mvp 78]

Maybe she will, Maybe she won't. I have never heard anyone say definitively that was the case. It does stretch credibility, however, to say every bad move was some one else's fault. That doesn't strike me as something Cherrington would either admit to or tell to some one outside the organization. Whatever his faults, Cherrington was and is a stand-up guy. I don't see him blaming others for whatever woes may have resulted from deals or trades done on his watch.

A700 was adamant that the 2012 trade with LA was attributable to JH not Ben because of the dollar amount. Wouldn't it also be the case that JH would have the final say in high dollar FA deals to Hanley and Pablo. Therefore, Ben is not to blame for those FA signings.

[Bellhorn04]

An upgrade weight-wise?

 

You are quite a mischievous joker at times.

[Bellhorn04]

Which just means the free agent class of 3B men wasn't too hot.

 

It wasn't, not that there are usually a lot of great third basemen floating around. Free agency burns you most of the time anyway. Chase Headley pretty much sucked for the Yankees too.

[a700hitter]

A700 was adamant that the 2012 trade with LA was attributable to JH not Ben because of the dollar amount. Wouldn't it also be the case that JH would have the final say in high dollar FA deals to Hanley and Pablo. Therefore, Ben is not to blame for those FA signings.

No.

[Elktonnick]

A700 was adamant that the 2012 trade with LA was attributable to JH not Ben because of the dollar amount. Wouldn't it also be the case that JH would have the final say in high dollar FA deals to Hanley and Pablo. Therefore, Ben is not to blame for those FA signings.

 

Who made the recommendation?

 

By that reasoning Henry is responsible for everything since he is the owner. Obviously, Henry isn't going to fire himself so he fires the guy who told him that signing Sandoval without a weight clause and at nbr of years and the amount of money was a good idea.

[a700hitter]

Let's hope he is right.

Hanley Ramirez on transitioning to first base: ‘It’s going to be easy’

01.23.16 at 9:11 pm ET

By John Tomase

 

MASHANTUCKET, Conn. — Hanley Ramirez believes he’s ready to be a big league first baseman.

 

Ramirez returned to Boston in 2015 with decidedly poor results. Asked to play left field, the lifelong shortstop struggled mightily in the field, got hurt, and ended up delivering an awful season on offense and defense.

 

Now that he’s back in the infield, he sees things going smoothly.

 

“I’ve always been an infielder, so it’s going to be easy,” he said on Saturday. “I know more of the territory. I’m going to feel more comfortable at first.”

 

To that end, Ramirez has been taking groundballs from instructor Laz Gutierrez near his home in Miami. He joked on WEEI’s Hot Stove Show on Saturday that someone from the team checks in on him every day. He plans on arriving in Fort Myers around Feb. 10, a week before pitchers and pitchers.

 

“As soon as I get to Fort Myers, we’re going to start working,” he said. “Everything is set up. They’re just waiting for me to get there.”

 

Ramirez believes first base will come more naturally than the outfield.

 

“It’s a little bit quiet at first,” he said. “It’s not the same as when you play short. You’ve got to be moving all the time. You’ve always got to have somewhere to go. At first, it’s going to be different. Every pitch, every thing, you’ve got to go to first, you’ve got to cover the bag.”

 

Thanks to his experiences at short, Ramirez knows what it means to have a first baseman who can scoop an errant throw.

 

“I told them last year, just throw the ball. Just throw the ball in this area. Throw the ball in the ground,” Ramirez said. “Don’t throw it above my head, over my head. Throw it in the ground, and I’ve got it. I just want them to feel comfortable. That’s the key. When you’ve got a good first baseman — like Adrian [Gonzalez], I played with Adrian in LA, he used to tell me to throw the ball in the ground or, to make it easy, throw it in my chest. That’s the same thing I want to bring to these guys. That’s very important.”

 

Ramirez said he is down three pounds, though it’s possible he underestimated his weight from last year. In any event, he’s 234 pounds and slimmer through the waist.

 

“Honestly, I feel light,” he said. “I’m 234, 235. It’s good. It’s going to be good for my batting. After I started working out, dropping some weight, I was feeling the difference. It’s a good idea. Even I’m going to keep trying to go down. It’s very important. They know what they’re doing. Now that I’m doing it, I’m like, ‘Wow.’ It’s good.”

[jung]

Elk I have been away from the board for the bulk of the day. So I just saw your post quoting about Larry and his part in some of these signings.

 

The basis for my view is that Larry was the boss. JH had stuffed the Pres of Baseball Ops job under Larry's Pres of the Red Sox position. So whatever freedom either BC or Theo had was granted by Larry. So it really comes down to whether they forwarded up to Larry their most favored guy for a position or if they forwarded up to him a few guys with the available data and a recommendation. If they only forwarded up one guy for Larry to yea or nay, then that sounds like more responsibility for BC and/or Theo than if they were sending up several candidates with opinions and the available data for Larry to review.

 

In some cases I suspect that Larry would allow either guy to make his own choice. But I would bet that anything on the scale of $$ ala' Panda or Hanley was a decision by Larry with again the only variable whether Larry was receiving multiple candidates and choosing one or just one favored candidate. If the later then that is very close to an approval process. If the former, the Larry is really doing much more than just approving...he is making the choice.

 

In any event it is clear that Theo just got to a point where he felt throttled by the process and hit the road.

 

Again I also think that JH was really telling us more than we understood at the time when he said "Larry runs the Red Sox". As it turns you that was absolutely the case and what happened with Theo makes much more sense when considered within that context.