2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Kimmi]

I have a theoretical for the prospect huggers. If Craig Kimbrel saves 4 games in the 2016 world series then precipitously declines while Margot and Guerra go on to be all stars, would it be worth it?

 

For the umpteenth time, my criticism of the trade is not about trading the prospects. It's about receiving somewhat equitable value in return. At any rate, here is what this prospect hugger posted on Nov. 17.

 

I will say that if the FO can address the rest of its needs (mainly a #1 starter) without gutting the farm or otherwise sacrificing our long term outlook, then this trade starts looking much better.

 

If Kimbrel also helps lead us to another WS ring in the next 3 years, then it will have been worth it for me, even if Margot ends up being a perennial all star.

[User Name]

I don't think another RH bat is needed in this lineup. Cespedes is definite a power bat and would love to have him and a contract around to what Hanley got last year is what he will probably get, some think his value exploded after the World Series but I think a month later when teams are looking at the big picture he will be right around Hanley's deal.

 

As it sits now we are a very RH team. Betts, Bogey, Pedoria, Hanley, Vaz, & Castillo. Add Cespedes and that's 7 out of nine that hit from the right side with Fat Boy and Papi from the left.

 

I just read an article where Henry said he would like to add another arm but not moving core young pitchers. He said nothing about position players. So I'd say the Winter Meetings will see Cespedes go off the board along with Davis within the first two days and with all the power off the board I could see the focus move back to the rotation and bullpen. We still need a shut down LHP out of the pen along with maybe another starting pitcher.

 

I like the idea of going after the Guardians arms but if Tito and company wont let one go then with the current rotation is ok until the All Star break when Bucholtz breaks down. So a pitcher like Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Henderson Alvarez, or one of Tampa Bays young arms which apparently all other than Archer are being shopped. Other than the young boys throw Lee or Lincecum a one year deal and see if you can get fire in a bottle.

 

I think the Sox are in a position of strength now heading into the Winter Meetings. They got their Ace, Bullpen Help, & 4th OF. So any move DD makes is just an added Bonus.

 

6/9, since JBJ is a lefty. And i'd love to see them try to catch lightning in a bottle with Lee.

[Kimmi]

In another note, I'm surprised by the Samardzija signing. His career looks very similar to Porcello.

 

Porcello 4.39 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.35 WHIP, 2.67 K/BB in the AL

Shark 4.09 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 2.76 K/BB in the NL

 

In 2015, they both had awful years. ERAs in the 4.90s but they both had career best years in 2014. Porcello trended upward at the end of last year, whereas Shark struggled the whole year.

 

Shark was worth 90 million and the 19th overall draft pick to the Giants. Porcello is a full 3 years younger.

 

What does this all mean? Pitching has become extremely extremely expensive.

 

It means that, hindsight aside, extending Porcello for $82.5/4 yrs was really a smart move.

[Elktonnick]

I think the Sox could have added 2-3 pieces to the package and gotten a starter, which would have been better bang for the buck. Don't forget that on top of the 4 prospects, the Sox are paying Kimbrel an average of $12 mil/yr. Definitely an overpay.

 

Also, it's not a given that the Sox needed a closer. They do still have Koji. I think it was very wise of the Sox to get Kimbrel, but saying they needed a closer is an overstatement.

 

That is highly speculative on your part. You have no evidence to support your point of view other than wishful thinking. They weren't going to get a top notch starter via the trade route but only a 3,4 or 5 which they already have. That wasn't going to solve their problem.

 

Regarding Kimbrel's salary 12 million for a closer of his quality is hardly an overpay as you call it. Papelbon made 13 million last year for the Nationals. Koji is over 40 and he had an injury to his wrist last year. It is simply prudent to get a quality closer when your former closer is as old as Koji coming off the type of injury he had. And I agree with 700 Boston needs more relievers. O'Day would be my wish.

[Kimmi]

DD needs another couple of quality bullpen arms.

 

I agree with this, or at least one more.

 

Darren O'Day has re-signed with the Os for $31/4 yrs.

[Kimmi]

That is highly speculative on your part. You have no evidence to support your point of view other than wishful thinking. They weren't going to get a top notch starter via the trade route but only a 3,4 or 5 which they already have. That wasn't going to solve their problem.

 

Regarding Kimbrel's salary 12 million for a closer of his quality is hardly an overpay as you call it. Papelbon made 13 million last year for the Nationals. Koji is over 40 and he had an injury to his wrist last year. It is simply prudent to get a quality closer when your former closer is as old as Koji coming off the type of injury he had. And I agree with 700 Boston needs more relievers. O'Day would be my wish.

 

My opinion is no more speculative than your opinion.

 

That said, I will give you this blurb from Speier, because that's just the kind of poster I am.

 

The Sox hadn’t lost their wariness about the risks of big contracts for pitchers in their 30s. But the team had analyzed the cost of trading for a young top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher and determined that the cost would be, in general manager Mike Hazen’s words, “exorbitant.” Trades for top starters weren’t available without sacrificing players such as shortstop Xander Bogaerts or center fielder Mookie Betts. Another rising young talent, Blake Swihart, was often viewed by teams with ace-caliber pitchers to trade as a secondary piece in a deal rather than a primary one.

[Kimmi]

That is highly speculative on your part. You have no evidence to support your point of view other than wishful thinking. They weren't going to get a top notch starter via the trade route but only a 3,4 or 5 which they already have. That wasn't going to solve their problem.

 

Regarding Kimbrel's salary 12 million for a closer of his quality is hardly an overpay as you call it. Papelbon made 13 million last year for the Nationals. Koji is over 40 and he had an injury to his wrist last year. It is simply prudent to get a quality closer when your former closer is as old as Koji coming off the type of injury he had. And I agree with 700 Boston needs more relievers. O'Day would be my wish.

 

Kimbrel's salary alone would be a mild overpay. The prospect package alone would be an overpay for Kimbrel. The combination of the package plus the salary is an overpay squared.

 

As far as Koji being over 40, I just said that it was VERY WISE of the Sox to get Kimbrel. However, saying that the Sox NEEDED a closer is an overstatement.

[a700hitter]

It means that, hindsight aside, extending Porcello for $82.5/4 yrs was really a smart move.

 

It means no such thing. The problem with the Porcello extension is that there was no rush to sign him before seeing him pitch for the Red Sox. We got no discount by extending him while he was under contract. The Samardzija contract proves that fact. Ben would not have had to pay more for Porcello on the open market, even if he had pitched to expectations. Certainly, after his miserable 2015, he would not have commanded the contract that he received. The extension only would have made sense if it came with a discount. $21.5 million per year was not a discount. Porcello was not going to become an ace overnight and command $25-30 million per year. Ben overpaid in hindsight, and without hindsight, under a best case projection, he paid full retail a full year before he had to make the decision. It was a very poor decision no matter how you slice it.

[dupree]

6/9, since JBJ is a lefty. And i'd love to see them try to catch lightning in a bottle with Lee.

I was assuming with Cespedes in fold that JBJ would be the expandable OF. So it would be 7 of 9. Because Betts for talent and Castillo for contract ain't moving so JBJ even with his gold glove potential defense is the odd man out if Cespedes is signed to play LF.

 

I haven't seen much on Lee's arm tendon status. Is he good to go or is he a Tommy John Surgery and career ending useless contract waiting g to happen. I seen that Lincecum is gonna hold a showing in January to show that hip is fine. I honestly like Henderson Alvarez from the Marlins. I know he has shoulder concerns but before last season he was awesome. And was just non tendered so why not take a shot with him. He would cost far less and higher upside than Lee or Lincecum who are on their way out.

[Palodios]

It means no such thing. The problem with the Porcello extension is that there was no rush to sign him before seeing him pitch for the Red Sox. We got no discount by extending him while he was under contract. The Samardzija contract proves that fact.

 

The risk was seeing Porcello repeat his 2014 numbers of a 200 IP/ low 3.00s season, cost even more, and then be forced to decide if they wanted to let another one of their pitchers walk in free agency. It backfired, but the Shark deal shows that Porcello might have been in line for a payday anyway.

 

Mike Leake may be an even better comparison when he signs. He's a young healthy, low strikeout, groundball pitcher that probably isn't any better than a #3 on most playoff teams. MLBTradeRumors estimate he'll get a 4/80 contract, but who knows.

[a700hitter]

The risk was seeing Porcello repeat his 2014 numbers of a 200 IP/ low 3.00s season, cost even more, and then be forced to decide if they wanted to let another one of their pitchers walk in free agency. It backfired, but the Shark deal shows that Porcello might have been in line for a payday anyway.

 

Mike Leake may be an even better comparison when he signs. He's a young healthy, low strikeout, groundball pitcher that probably isn't any better than a #3 on most playoff teams. MLBTradeRumors estimate he'll get a 4/80 contract, but who knows.

 

He was not going to elevate himself to the level of Greinke or Price. That was not going to happen. There was zero chance of that happening. If he pitched to his career norms or better he might have gone up a million or 2 in AAV. There was no big discount.

[Kimmi]

It means no such thing. The problem with the Porcello extension is that there was no rush to sign him before seeing him pitch for the Red Sox. We got no discount by extending him while he was under contract. The Samardzija contract proves that fact. Ben would not have had to pay more for Porcello on the open market, even if he had pitched to expectations. Certainly, after his miserable 2015, he would not have commanded the contract that he received. The extension only would have made sense if it came with a discount. $21.5 million per year was not a discount. Porcello was not going to become an ace overnight and command $25-30 million per year. Ben overpaid in hindsight, and without hindsight, under a best case projection, he paid full retail a full year before he had to make the decision. It was a very poor decision no matter how you slice it.

 

There was no rush to sign Porcello because he pitched poorly. Had he started the season pitching well, and continued that through the trade deadline, it would have either cost the Sox more money/years, or Porcello might have very likely decided to test free agency. The Sox took a gamble which didn't work out last season, but, but it was a smart decision. His extension doesn't start until this year. It might very well end up being a great deal after all.

 

The discount for Porcello came in the form of fewer years.

[Kimmi]

He was not going to elevate himself to the level of Greinke or Price. That was not going to happen. There was zero chance of that happening. If he pitched to his career norms or better he might have gone up a million or 2 in AAV. There was no big discount.

 

Who said anything about him elevating himself to the level of Greinke or Price. His contract is also nowhere in the neighborhood of Greinke or Price.

 

There was every reason to believe that Porcello could at least pitch as well as he did in 2014, and a good possibility that he would improve upon that year. Not only would his AAV be higher, but I can almost guarantee that he would have received more than 4 years.

[Kimmi]

I was assuming with Cespedes in fold that JBJ would be the expandable OF. So it would be 7 of 9. Because Betts for talent and Castillo for contract ain't moving so JBJ even with his gold glove potential defense is the odd man out if Cespedes is signed to play LF.

 

I haven't seen much on Lee's arm tendon status. Is he good to go or is he a Tommy John Surgery and career ending useless contract waiting g to happen. I seen that Lincecum is gonna hold a showing in January to show that hip is fine. I honestly like Henderson Alvarez from the Marlins. I know he has shoulder concerns but before last season he was awesome. And was just non tendered so why not take a shot with him. He would cost far less and higher upside than Lee or Lincecum who are on their way out.

 

I don't really know what's going on with Lee, but I would take a flyer on him for the right price. It would be ideal if we could sign someone like that to a minor league deal for depth, but I can't see that happening.

 

I don't know anything about Alvarez' shoulder concerns, but a quick glance at his numbers (not ERA) say that he's worth a minor league look.

[Kimmi]

I agree with this, or at least one more.

 

Darren O'Day has re-signed with the Os for $31/4 yrs.

 

O'Day says the deal is not final yet. It's pending a physical, which given the Os recent tendency to deem players not healthy, is not a given.

[cp176]

I like Salazar in a trade with the Guardians and wouldn't be surprised to see it happen at all.

[Palodios]

He was not going to elevate himself to the level of Greinke or Price. That was not going to happen. There was zero chance of that happening. If he pitched to his career norms or better he might have gone up a million or 2 in AAV. There was no big discount.

 

Who said anything about Greinke or Price? If those guys were getting contracts at age 26, they'd be making 300 million. The Red Sox wanted stability in their rotation, they liked Porcello, so they paid him 80 million instead of risking him making 100 million instead. It backfired.

[User Name]

....on a year where the extension hadn't even kicked in yet. There's still very much a possibility that Porcello lives up to his contract.

[a700hitter]

There was no rush to sign Porcello because he pitched poorly. Had he started the season pitching well, and continued that through the trade deadline, it would have either cost the Sox more money/years, or Porcello might have very likely decided to test free agency. The Sox took a gamble which didn't work out last season, but, but it was a smart decision. His extension doesn't start until this year. It might very well end up being a great deal after all.

 

The discount for Porcello came in the form of fewer years.

The guy is a middle to a bottom of the rotation pitcher over his career. There was no risk of his value skyrocketing. None. His career ceiling is a Mark Buerle and I don't see him achieving that level of consistency.

[Palodios]

....on a year where the extension hadn't even kicked in yet. There's still very much a possibility that Porcello lives up to his contract.

 

Are you referring to me? I'm talking about the strategy to pay Porcello early to save money later. They probably could have saved money if they waited.

[Palodios]

The guy is a middle to a bottom of the rotation pitcher over his career. There was no risk of his value skyrocketing. None. His career ceiling is a Mark Buerle and I don't see him achieving that level of consistency.

 

As I said, his numbers are very similar to Leake/Shark, and those guys are getting paid. If Buerhle hit FA this year, he would have made a lot more than the 60 million contract he received.

[a700hitter]

As I said, his numbers are very similar to Leake/Shark, and those guys are getting paid. If Buerhle hit FA this year, he would have made a lot more than the 60 million contract he received.

 

I said that Buehrle is his ceiling. I didn't say that he is Buehrle's equal. He is far from it. That is his upside potential imo. In free agency you pay for accomplishments not potential. It's a nonsensical argument imo that it was a good deal when signed. The guy is nothing special. His best asset would be if he could just achieve some consistency as a middle to a bottom of the rotation guy. That is not worth $21.1 million/year.

[Palodios]

I said that Buehrle is his ceiling. I didn't say that he is Buehrle's equal. He is far from it. That is his upside potential imo. In free agency you pay for accomplishments not potential. It's a nonsensical argument imo that it was a good deal when signed. The guy is nothing special. His best asset would be if he could just achieve some consistency as a middle to a bottom of the rotation guy. That is not worth $21.1 million/year.

 

Player 1) 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 121 ERA+ consistent 200+ IP guy.

Player 2) 3.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 120 ERA consistent 220+ IP guy.

 

Player 1 is Lester before free agency. Player 2 is Burhle before free agency.

 

Lester made 155 million in free agency. So far you've compared Porcello to guys worth 200 million, 217 million and roughly 130-160 million. How about we start comparing him to guys worth 80 million?

[a700hitter]

Player 1) 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 121 ERA+ consistent 200+ IP guy.

Player 2) 3.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 120 ERA consistent 220+ IP guy.

 

Player 1 is Lester before free agency. Player 2 is Burhle before free agency.

 

Lester made 155 million in free agency. So far you've compared Porcello to guys worth 200 million, 217 million and roughly 130-160 million. How about we start comparing him to guys worth 80 million?

 

I have not compared Porcello to either of them.

[Palodios]

I have not compared Porcello to either of them.

 

You drive me crazy sometimes, you know that? I'm going to take a a700hitter break for the rest of the offseason before I go loony -- I'll take you off ignore in April.

[a700hitter]

You drive me crazy sometimes, you know that? I'm going to take a a700hitter break for the rest of the offseason before I go loony -- I'll take you off ignore in April.

 

You are already crazy. Lol! Don't blame me. Take accountability for a change. You are responsible for your own emotions.

[Palodios]

You are already crazy. Don't blame me. Take accountability for a change.

 

Hey man, stop with the personal attacks already.

[a700hitter]

Hey man, stop with the personal attacks already.

 

Not meant as an attack. See my edited post. Laughing at you going Looney over a baseball discussion.

[a700hitter]

Salty signed by the Tigers.

[User Name]

Are you referring to me? I'm talking about the strategy to pay Porcello early to save money later. They probably could have saved money if they waited.

 

I was agreeing with you.