2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[sk7326]

They fired the pitching coach early on. It hasn't really helped. The pitching has been consistently bad. Maybe it is the pitching. Do you feel confident that a 3rd pitching coach will help propel Porcello to something he has never been in 7 full major league seasons -- a top of the rotation starter? I don't. For all the talk about coming to the Red Sox helping improve him, it never made sense since he was coming to a park that was more favorable to hitters.

 

First - he moved from a hitters park to another hitters park. Fenway gives up a lot of doubles, more than Comerica but fewer homeruns. Both are in the Top 10 in Park Factors, neither are Coors level outliers. The Tigers were also one of the league's worst defenses last year and the Red Sox were one of the league's best. That figures in also.

 

Second, and this is the key point in the Porcello discussion. Instead of looking at the ceiling, which is debatable, look at the floor, which is not. He did not fail to be a top of the rotation starter, or fail to be better than the magical 4.00 ERA or whatever goalpost is used. He failed to be what he was last year, the year before, or years before that. He was a truly bad pitcher as a 26 year old, which defies any sort of non-injury related explanation. Now this happens very occasionally (since I saw Rick Ankiel as a pitcher, and there are no absolutes), but the odds are strongly against that being the future level of performance. Without the revelation of an injury that bothered him all year, I am much more comfortable looking to the coaching for an answer to him becoming below replacement level than a 26 year old suddenly aging at a twentyfold rate.

 

When I am critical of the coaching, it is not because of one guy - it is because of the sheer number of guys who underperformed career norms across all aspects of baseball. And it's not like they are a team brimming with old folks. This was actually the sort of case which you almost expected a managerial change midseason.

[SoxHop]

Miley you are closer to the truth. Porcello had a major falloff from his career at an age which does not make sense - there is a lot of fluke evidence (and a lot of poor coaching evidence) there.

 

His stuff is junk............

 

I'm with the recent posters....... the rotation is bad........ really bad.......... and if someone decides to go with the same ******** next year then....... hello end of season at the halfway point...........

 

are hitting isn't the mega destructive force we thought it would be........... it's not NY power, or Toronto power...... that mediocre rotation stuff isn't Championship caliber....

 

the rotation needs assistance.........

[SoxHop]

I've been hoping Miley was a 4. He is more a 5. And Buch or Wright is 6........... which puts Porcello at 9.......... just after Holt....

[a700hitter]

First - he moved from a hitters park to another hitters park. Fenway gives up a lot of doubles, more than Comerica but fewer homeruns. Both are in the Top 10 in Park Factors, neither are Coors level outliers. The Tigers were also one of the league's worst defenses last year and the Red Sox were one of the league's best. That figures in also.

 

Second, and this is the key point in the Porcello discussion. Instead of looking at the ceiling, which is debatable, look at the floor, which is not. He did not fail to be a top of the rotation starter, or fail to be better than the magical 4.00 ERA or whatever goalpost is used. He failed to be what he was last year, the year before, or years before that. He was a truly bad pitcher as a 26 year old, which defies any sort of non-injury related explanation. Now this happens very occasionally (since I saw Rick Ankiel as a pitcher, and there are no absolutes), but the odds are strongly against that being the future level of performance. Without the revelation of an injury that bothered him all year, I am much more comfortable looking to the coaching for an answer to him becoming below replacement level than a 26 year old suddenly aging at a twentyfold rate.

 

When I am critical of the coaching, it is not because of one guy - it is because of the sheer number of guys who underperformed career norms across all aspects of baseball. And it's not like they are a team brimming with old folks. This was actually the sort of case which you almost expected a managerial change midseason.

 

If Porcello reverts to what he had been, he will still not be what we need -- a top of the rotation starter. He will be a #4 with an upside of being a #3. We have enough of bottom of the rotation guys.

 

Since you don't think that a sledgehammer has to be taken to the rotstion, how would you turn things around -- a new pitching coach? We have worked the rookies into the rotation recently and our staff as a whole still stinks. Are you proposing to stay with what we have?

Edited August 10, 2015 by a700hitter

[dupree]

I hope like hell they don't stand pat with what they have for next year. Ben keeps saying that the Sox are looking for young controllable arms. Well that just ain't happening if you don't rid the farm of high level prospects to get young guys. We supposed to have one of if not the best farms in MLB. Well that has yet to be seen at development of pitchers to come to the major league level. We need to look to get a minor league coach from the A's because it's apparent they know what they are doing. Also I like Owens and ERod but I don't think we build around them. Plus so many of the young controllable types will cost a haul in minor league talent and Ben & company have shown that they don't want to give up talent. A total change of mindset will have to be submitted at the start of the 2016 campaign if we are to contend next year. The rotation and bullpen are tops and we have to address the lineup and figure out if Hanley or Panda will be in another uniform next year.

 

I think from now to the end of the year they need to make a decision at 1B. If Hanley don't want to move there and if he can't play there then Panda has to go if theyd rather have Hanley's bat in the lineup. That's the biggest problem in my opinion with this lineup as it stands now. Their is no direction for the future we have 3 future DHs on this team now and all can't just play DH everyday. I like Hanley at 3rd instead of 1B and I think most on here does too. So power needs to come at 1B next year via trade or FA signing a platoon although smart doesn't seem like the right direction to me. And with Hanley moving to the infield that opens up a spot for someone in the outfield to go along with Betts and Castillo. So that will have to be addressed. But they will have to come as a result of who moves on from here.

 

The starting rotation will have to get better and become respectable again. I think the mindset will have to change first and foremost and start spending and giving up talent to get it. Ben is signing and trading for his job in 2016 and I say John Henry opens up the pocket book this offseason and says spend spend spend. Atleast we all hope he does or we will be waiting for football to start like we are this year.

[Kimmi]

The high performing professionals thing is a bit of a canard. If Sandoval were not a pro, somehow he would not have been a key guy on a few title teams. That analysis is often bent to fit narrative.

 

What we have seen so far from the "string" is that:

 

- There is clearly some there there with Henry Owens - nobody putting him in the Cy Young voting, but there is a foundation there. Owens and Rodriguez are a good place to start. I'd say keep Buchholz - for all the injury warts he is so cheap relative to performance when healthy that it makes sense.

 

- The rotation does not need the sledgehammer - seriously. You take the kiddos, Porcello, Miley and Wright and that is a rotation which can work, of course given Porcello straightens his issues out. Whether or not he is a 4 WAR pitcher is in debate, but that he is better than replacement level shouldn't be.

 

- There are more reasons to keep Cherington than to dump him - and if the front office stops worrying about NESN ratings and just let the baseball operation flow, things will go better. The parts of the org which is outside of the WEEI/NESN purview has been productive.

 

- Not quite the same for Farrell. He has not been the tactical disaster that a Matheny, Matt Williams, Brad Ausmus or Ned Yost have been to varying degrees. But he has not created value the way that Bochy, Francona, Girardi etc do, either tactically or developmentally. And this year's system wide underperformance has to reflect on him first. Fortunately with the increasing use of analytics and such, finding managers with both analytic and ex-baller cred is not as hard as it used to be. Obviously previous managing is a must in whatever context. (doesn't mean big league managing necessarily - but actually doing the job)

 

- 1B is the biggest question in terms of upgrades. You can do it with clever platooning or just aiming high for a guy, but clearly they need more from an offensive position than they have been getting.

 

- Now a good corner bat would be nice, but there is some merit in just riding out Castillo and seeing where it ends up. His performance the next two months is important, if nothing else to keep him in play as an asset. (if a team thinks he can start, he is priced very very well)

 

The path to where the team wants to be is not that daunting. Some good targeted moves (and a managerial change) and it might fly.

 

Solid post SK, but I have to agree with a700 about having 2 kids in the rotation. Aside from the fact that they often have innings limitations attached to them, it is far too risky to start the season relying on two rookies in your rotation. Additionally, if the Sox decide to start the season with Rodriguez and Owens in the rotation, that leaves almost no depth on the pitching front for the inevitable injury/underperformance.

 

I would like to see the Sox add, at minimum, a #1 pitcher. I agree that Porcello will bounce back. A rotation of a #1 acquisition, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, and Rodriguez doesn't look so bad, though I would prefer the Sox also add a #2/3, and start Rodriguez in AAA to give the team more depth.

 

Wright has to factor in there somewhere as well. I believe he is out of options.

 

Overall, I agree that the team is not that far away from being a contender next season.

[Kimmi]

There is absolutely no evidence that Porcello's performance was related to coaching except for message board rumors started by fans, and there is even less reason to believe that he will develop into something that he has never been in 7 full major league seasons-- a top of the rotation starter.

 

The speculation that the Sox were hoping Porcello could become a better pitcher by improving his strikeouts was hinted at by Gammons. The way the story goes, this was actually started in Detroit, and the Sox hoped to build upon that. It is speculation, but it could just as easily be true.

 

Regardless of whether the Sox tampered with Porcello's approach or he did it on his own, it clearly has not worked. It is the coaching staff's job to correct these things, is it not? It's the same thing with Pablo playing so shallow at 3B.

 

I think you have to question the coaching staff when there has been such widespread underperformance.

[Kimmi]

He was nearly 3 full wins worse than his "career level" - which is not something which happens to 26 year olds. Top, middle, bottom, front, rear, sides of the rotation. He did not have to be an ace to justify his contract. He had to be better than replacement level, which he has not been this season to even remotely qualify.

 

When talent did not perform to its capability consistently, across all areas of the game, it is completely justifiable (heck, sensible) to blame the coaching staff. There is a lack of "talent related" reasons for many of the failures. (did the bat speed go away collectively? Did the pitching staff all take stupid pills to underperform career norms despite being in their 20s?)

 

^^This

[cp176]

Solid post SK, but I have to agree with a700 about having 2 kids in the rotation. Aside from the fact that they often have innings limitations attached to them, it is far too risky to start the season relying on two rookies in your rotation. Additionally, if the Sox decide to start the season with Rodriguez and Owens in the rotation, that leaves almost no depth on the pitching front for the inevitable injury/underperformance.

 

I would like to see the Sox add, at minimum, a #1 pitcher. I agree that Porcello will bounce back. A rotation of a #1 acquisition, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, and Rodriguez doesn't look so bad, though I would prefer the Sox also add a #2/3, and start Rodriguez in AAA to give the team more depth.

 

Wright has to factor in there somewhere as well. I believe he is out of options.

 

Overall, I agree that the team is not that far away from being a contender next season.

 

 

As things currently stand - If you had one game that you had to win, who would you start - Porcello, Miley, or Rodriguez?

[Kimmi]

They fired the pitching coach early on. It hasn't really helped. The pitching has been consistently bad. Maybe it is the pitching. Do you feel confident that a 3rd pitching coach will help propel Porcello to something he has never been in 7 full major league seasons -- a top of the rotation starter? I don't. For all the talk about coming to the Red Sox helping improve him, it never made sense since he was coming to a park that was more favorable to hitters.

 

You really have to stop putting so much emphasis on a player's full career when trying to project what he might become. Yes, career numbers are valid to a point. However, considering age and how players typically improve or decline as they age, early years of someone's career does not offer much in the way of projections. Looking at the last 2-3 years would be more prudent.

 

There is no valid reason to think that Porcello would not at least maintain the level that he pitched at last season.

[Kimmi]

As things currently stand - If you had one game that you had to win, who would you start - Porcello, Miley, or Rodriguez?

 

As things stand, Rodriguez for sure. I'm not trying to diss on him by saying that he should start the season at AAA. I would be perfectly okay if he were the only rookie in our starting rotation to start the season.

 

My reasoning for having him start at AAA is depth. If/when one of the starters gets injured or underperforms, how nice would it be to have someone like Rodriguez be able to step up and take his place, and have the rotation not miss a beat? It may or may not be fair, but he has options, and having a young arm like him in AAA is the best way to have quality depth.

[a700hitter]

The speculation that the Sox were hoping Porcello could become a better pitcher by improving his strikeouts was hinted at by Gammons. The way the story goes, this was actually started in Detroit, and the Sox hoped to build upon that. It is speculation, but it could just as easily be true.

 

Regardless of whether the Sox tampered with Porcello's approach or he did it on his own, it clearly has not worked. It is the coaching staff's job to correct these things, is it not? It's the same thing with Pablo playing so shallow at 3B.

 

I think you have to question the coaching staff when there has been such widespread underperformance.

 

I am fully in favor of firing Farrell and his entire coaching staff as I think they have done a terrible job. However, I don't think a third pitching coach can improve our current staff enough to be competitive. I agree with you that at minimum we need to get 1 top of the rotation pitcher.

[a700hitter]

You really have to stop putting so much emphasis on a player's full career when trying to project what he might become. Yes, career numbers are valid to a point. However, considering age and how players typically improve or decline as they age, early years of someone's career does not offer much in the way of projections. Looking at the last 2-3 years would be more prudent.

 

There is no valid reason to think that Porcello would not at least maintain the level that he pitched at last season.

I am not saying that Porcello cannot pitch to the level that he did in 2014, but I don't think it is a given. That was his best season and this has been his worst season. I think it is more likely that both seasons were outliers. I think it is more likely that he is just a 4 ERA starter. BTW, 4.00 would be a big improvement over his 4.45 career mark. I really don't see him doing a full run better than that which is what we need.

[sk7326]

Solid post SK, but I have to agree with a700 about having 2 kids in the rotation. Aside from the fact that they often have innings limitations attached to them, it is far too risky to start the season relying on two rookies in your rotation. Additionally, if the Sox decide to start the season with Rodriguez and Owens in the rotation, that leaves almost no depth on the pitching front for the inevitable injury/underperformance.

 

I would like to see the Sox add, at minimum, a #1 pitcher. I agree that Porcello will bounce back. A rotation of a #1 acquisition, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, and Rodriguez doesn't look so bad, though I would prefer the Sox also add a #2/3, and start Rodriguez in AAA to give the team more depth.

 

Wright has to factor in there somewhere as well. I believe he is out of options.

 

Overall, I agree that the team is not that far away from being a contender next season.

 

Clearly the team needs to have six or seven guys who can make starts: the way I look at next year:

 

- Owens and Rodriguez should be in Boston. There are things to learn (for the former, getting through the order 3rd time out, the latter avoiding the one bad inning spiral). I'm not putting Owens into Cooperstown on two starts, but it is very clear there is a guy with some big league swing and miss stuff there. Wright is a valuable swingman - and the way modern bullpen construction is, just having any sort of multi-inning guy is very nice to have.

 

- Buchholz was good this year when he was healthy. Obviously that is an annoying caveat, but there you go. The cost control is attractive too

 

So before discussing Porcello or Miley, it seems like there are four starters who can put something competitive out there, and would fall into line quite nicely if the Sox in fact DID sign a Cueto (which I would approve of). Now if Porcello just returns to being an above average starter, like he was before April of 2015, that gets you up to five. If Miley is your 5th starter, then things look less shabby. I think what people like about Miley is the competitiveness, and that he hangs in there - but yeah that does not offset the pedestrian numbers otherwise.

 

When I talked about not needing a slegehammer, the fact is if the Sox signed one pitcher who can be a reliable top of the rotation sort - an "ace" would be wonderful, but even a Hiroki Kuroda/Mark Buehrle sort - just a guy you don't have to worry about would be very helpful. I am not blind about the starting woes this season - I just tend to get annoyed at making run prevention just as simply reductive as talking about pitching linescores. The Red Sox entire run prevention operation failed - and the non-pitching part of it also needs to be addressed.

[cp176]

As things stand, Rodriguez for sure. I'm not trying to diss on him by saying that he should start the season at AAA. I would be perfectly okay if he were the only rookie in our starting rotation to start the season.

 

My reasoning for having him start at AAA is depth. If/when one of the starters gets injured or underperforms, how nice would it be to have someone like Rodriguez be able to step up and take his place, and have the rotation not miss a beat? It may or may not be fair, but he has options, and having a young arm like him in AAA is the best way to have quality depth.

 

Depth is important. No one questions that. The fact remains that winning teams play their best players. They sometimes make difficult decisions not based upon spending when it comes to doing this. If Rodriguez and or Owens and or Wright are outperforming any other starting pitcher it would make no sense to have them start the year in Pawtucket.

[a700hitter]

Clearly the team needs to have six or seven guys who can make starts: the way I look at next year:

 

- Owens and Rodriguez should be in Boston. There are things to learn (for the former, getting through the order 3rd time out, the latter avoiding the one bad inning spiral). I'm not putting Owens into Cooperstown on two starts, but it is very clear there is a guy with some big league swing and miss stuff there. Wright is a valuable swingman - and the way modern bullpen construction is, just having any sort of multi-inning guy is very nice to have.

 

- Buchholz was good this year when he was healthy. Obviously that is an annoying caveat, but there you go. The cost control is attractive too

 

So before discussing Porcello or Miley, it seems like there are four starters who can put something competitive out there, and would fall into line quite nicely if the Sox in fact DID sign a Cueto (which I would approve of). Now if Porcello just returns to being an above average starter, like he was before April of 2015, that gets you up to five. If Miley is your 5th starter, then things look less shabby. I think what people like about Miley is the competitiveness, and that he hangs in there - but yeah that does not offset the pedestrian numbers otherwise.

 

When I talked about not needing a slegehammer, the fact is if the Sox signed one pitcher who can be a reliable top of the rotation sort - an "ace" would be wonderful, but even a Hiroki Kuroda/Mark Buehrle sort - just a guy you don't have to worry about would be very helpful. I am not blind about the starting woes this season - I just tend to get annoyed at making run prevention just as simply reductive as talking about pitching linescores. The Red Sox entire run prevention operation failed - and the non-pitching part of it also needs to be addressed.

 

I am still not sold. ^This would not be a competitive pitching staff. We would be fighting for last place for a third year in a row.

[sk7326]

I am still not sold. ^This would not be a competitive pitching staff. We would be fighting for last place for a third year in a row.

 

Well you would have:

 

MYSTERY MAN, Buchholz, two kids with ERAs at or below the blessed holy 4.00 ... now is that enough to prop up another underachieving offense? Probably not. Is it enough to serve an offense doing its job to improve the bottom line results. Of course it would.

[sk7326]

I am not saying that Porcello cannot pitch to the level that he did in 2014, but I don't think it is a given. That was his best season and this has been his worst season. I think it is more likely that both seasons were outliers. I think it is more likely that he is just a 4 ERA starter. BTW, 4.00 would be a big improvement over his 4.45 career mark. I really don't see him doing a full run better than that which is what we need.

 

His 2014 was in line with his 2013 and 2012. ERAs varied, but a lot goes into that. The 2015 was not in line with any of them.

[a700hitter]

Well you would have:

 

MYSTERY MAN, Buchholz, two kids with ERAs at or below the blessed holy 4.00 ... now is that enough to prop up another underachieving offense? Probably not. Is it enough to serve an offense doing its job to improve the bottom line results. Of course it would.

 

When did I say any of that? I would never have 2 rookies in a rotation to start a season. That is a recipe to not compete. We need to get two top of the rotation pitchers.

[a700hitter]

His 2014 was in line with his 2013 and 2012. ERAs varied, but a lot goes into that. The 2015 was not in line with any of them.

That is misleading. His ERA + in 2014 was as out of line with his career ERA + on the positive side by almost the same amount that his 2015 ERA+ is below his career norm. His 2014 performance was not at all in line with his prior years.

[sk7326]

That is misleading. His ERA + in 2014 was as out of line with his career ERA + on the positive side by almost the same amount that his 2015 ERA+ is below his career norm. His 2014 performance was not at all in line with his prior years.

 

Essentially it comes down to how much credit/blame do you give his teammates. In 2014 he had some good homerun luck, and the previous years he didn't, and in all cases he played in front of teammates who largely did not improve upon potted plants in the requisite fielding positions. The underlying pitcher was largely the same.

 

Weirdly despite how bad the left side of the defense was, the Sox were STILL A better defensive outfit than the Tigers teams Porcello got to work with ... but he brought far less to the table.

[Bellhorn04]

I clearly forgot about Buchholz, and since the kids are Rodriguez and Owens ... that is not a terrible start. If they signed Cueto all the better, but the bleating about an ace as a cure all is misplaced.

 

An ace is not a cure all, but with what we had in 2015, it's probably a way to add 5 wins.

[iortiz]

I'm done with the "good enough" pitching strategy. We need not 1 but 2 solid proven and durable arms, otherwise we are going to be dead last next year again. We also need 3 arms in the BP.

[iortiz]

Miley you are closer to the truth. Porcello had a major falloff from his career at an age which does not make sense - there is a lot of fluke evidence (and a lot of poor coaching evidence) there.

 

Take away his worst and best years and you will find the answer.

 

Also, I do not buy the "coaching evidence". What evidence are you talking about? I think that those "evidences" are opinions/conjectures at best.

 

Lets face it, we gave 80 M to a 4.5 ERA pitcher who was expected to post an ERA under 4.... Thing that will not happen IMO given his career numbers after/before 2014.

[sk7326]

Take away his worst and best years and you will find the answer.

 

Also, I do not buy the "coaching evidence". What evidence are you talking about? I think that those "evidences" are opinions/conjectures at best.

 

Lets face it, we gave 80 M to a 4.5 ERA pitcher who was expected to post an ERA under 4.... Thing that will not happen IMO given his career numbers after/before 2014.

 

Given how widespread team underachievement was across so many areas, without great underlying talent reasons ... failures in the manager/coach are completely normal things to suspect.

[a700hitter]

An ace is not a cure all, but with what we had in 2015, it's probably a way to add 5 wins.

I don't think we need an "ace". We need 2 top of the rotation pitchers. We have plenty of guys to fight it out for the bottom of the rotation.

[a700hitter]

Given how widespread team underachievement was across so many areas, without great underlying talent reasons ... failures in the manager/coach are completely normal things to suspect.

 

I am fully in favor of firing the entire coaching staff including Farrell if that is what you are advocating. I just don't think we have the pitching pieces in place to compete with a new coaching staff.

Edited August 10, 2015 by a700hitter

[iortiz]

Given how widespread team underachievement was across so many areas, without great underlying talent reasons ... failures in the manager/coach are completely normal things to suspect.

To suspect?

 

The underachievement across the last 3/4 is on the FO for bringing bad players like Porcello.

Edited August 10, 2015 by iortiz

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

It is possible that Porcello just isn't that passionate about baseball, and decided to take the money the Red Sox were offering and coast? Happens somewhat often when a player gets a fat contract in the NBA. I know everyone wants to think that baseball holds itself to a higher standard because more white guys are playing, but maybe it's something to consider.

[sk7326]

To suspect?

 

The underachievement across the last 3/4 is on the FO for bringing bad players like Porcello.

 

2012 Lots of people got hurt and the manager was a bozo

 

2013 Lots of people didn't get hurt and the Red Sox won a title. Given they were the best team in the league almost every day of that season, it is hard to call it lucky.

 

2014 underachievement plus the FO being wimps about their own organization which didn't help.

 

2015 has been marked by underachievement in a widespread way - in 2015 more than 2014. Blaming the players is fashionable (and they are not blameless) because it is easy to seem more reasonable by not wanting to can the manager. There is a lot of evidence that Farrell has not brought anything positive to the party except for 2013 where his status as a decent human being was a huge improvement on Valentine.