6/20 Red Sox @ Kansas City

[Kimmi]

I remember optimistic posters who saw possibilities for this being an innings eating productive stafff who noted with caution that if some things went bad that it could quickly turn disastrous. There were plenty of reasons to be wary of this staff. I was very vocal about the lack of top of rotation pitchers. I was not even talking about the need for an ace. I termed this staff " a pair of 4's a pair of 5s and a 3" and that is what they are, and the results have been disastrous.

 

There were reasons to be wary of this staff, I agree. I think we all expected that the rotation that we started with would not be the rotation that we ended with. Regardless, I don't think anyone thought 4 out our 5 starters would have their career worst ERAs. Also, there are many games in which the starters pitched well enough but were either let down by their offense or by their defense. There is no way that the pitching, offense, or defense should be as bad as they've been.

[Kimmi]

That is very accurate I think. I think that there was reason to feel optimistic going into this season. But I have to also say that personally I don't think that I ever felt anything other than optimism heading into spring training. The pitching staff as a whole has not shown any sign that they are going to get the job done. Outside of Rodriguez, who many people didn't even have on their radar, they have been disappointing. I did then and I still do like what the scouts said about Rodriguez. Trading Cespedes and bringing in Porcello - signing Sandoval and Ramirez seemed to be stepping in the right direction both from a pitching as well as a hitting perspective. No one could possibly have foreseen how poorly Ramirez would adjust to playing let field. No way. Ramirez came back with some baggage that much we did know. We can second guess most of the decisions that were made. It is safe to say that no one is particularly happy right now. Personally for me there will be a time if things don't improve that I think saying that things didn't work out is ok. No one is right all of the time. Turn the page. I hope that they will build a team based around the play of their young players. Outside of Pedroia and Holt, I think that this is where their leadership is going to come from.

 

I mostly agree. And I think one of the main focuses of the offseason was to keep their youth core intact.

[a700hitter]

There were reasons to be wary of this staff, I agree. I think we all expected that the rotation that we started with would not be the rotation that we ended with. Regardless, I don't think anyone thought 4 out our 5 starters would have their career worst ERAs. Also, there are many games in which the starters pitched well enough but were either let down by their offense or by their defense. There is no way that the pitching, offense, or defense should be as bad as they've been.

 

It wouldn't have mattered if they had performed to career norms. The career norms for this group screamed out 4+ ERA which is very bad. It just doesn't cut it in today's game. The age of McGwire and Sosa and Bonds and PEDs is over. Pitching is paramount.

[Kimmi]

But neither happened. He has been a pig in LF and has, overall, fallen short of reasonable expectations at the Plate.

 

He has made little effort since ST to become a better left fielder, that is established fact.

 

Yeah, with most players making that transition, it would be reasonable to assume that the adjustment would be made and the player would maintain his value.

 

That has not happened with Hanley.

 

Many are not surprised.

 

He has looked better the past couple of weeks. Hopefully, we will see some defensive improvement from him as the season goes on, along with him hitting like we know he is capable of hitting.

[a700hitter]

I mostly agree. And I think one of the main focuses of the offseason was to keep their youth core intact.

 

If that is a main focus, then they wasted a lot of money. They could have finished in last place and preserved the core for around $45 million.

[iortiz]

I have no problem admitting that I was wrong about Porcello and that you were right - up to this point. I'm sure that makes you happy. I am in no way ready to write him off for the remainder of his contract. He is a much better pitcher than what we're seeing so far this season. He just needs to get back to the approach that got him here.

I'm not happy, I think you have noticed that since day 1 when I just noticed that they not only traded for Cespedes, but gave him that stupid extension.

 

He has always been a mediocre pitcher, it is pure and simple, actually. The only good thing about Porcello is that he has made me win a lot of money this year (as always) and some bets around here.

[a700hitter]

But neither happened. He has been a pig in LF and has, overall, fallen short of reasonable expectations at the Plate.

 

He has made little effort since ST to become a better left fielder, that is established fact.

 

Yeah, with most players making that transition, it would be reasonable to assume that the adjustment would be made and the player would maintain his value.

 

That has not happened with Hanley.

 

Many are not surprised.

 

In the first game of spring training that I saw in Fort Myers I expressed my concern that he could not play the OF. I am just a fan with a well-trained eye, but what I saw was alarmingly bad. The FO never should have signed him to a big contract without solid reasons or information that he could play out there. He is the worst Red Sox LFer in my lifetime. Awful.

[Kimmi]

4.40 career ERA over 1,100 innings. If you think that 4.40 is a big improvement, then I will agree that he is better than what we have seen, but that is still not good enough to be a top of the rotation guy.

 

I think he can pitch like he did last season, if he goes back to throwing his sinker about 50% of the time, and can get its effectiveness back.

[cp176]

I think he can pitch like he did last season, if he goes back to throwing his sinker about 50% of the time, and can get its effectiveness back.

 

Almost everybody who posts here felt that we were one pitcher shy. We still are even with Rodriguez although he sure helps. I am really enjoying watching Mookie get it going.

[User Name]

I still cannot understand why the Sox would tinker with Porcello. He fit their supposed offseason plan to a T.

[a700hitter]

I think he can pitch like he did last season, if he goes back to throwing his sinker about 50% of the time, and can get its effectiveness back.

Or more likely he will go back to being the career 4.40 ERA pitcher that he has been over more than 1,100 innings.

[Kimmi]

Almost everybody who posts here felt that we were one pitcher shy. We still are even with Rodriguez although he sure helps. I am really enjoying watching Mookie get it going.

 

I really thought the Sox would add a pitcher before the season started, but I understood their rationale for waiting to see exactly what their needs would be. The goal of this staff was to pitch well enough to keep the team in the hunt until midseason. Had the offense and defense performed like they should have, we would be looking at a completely different picture.

[Kimmi]

I still cannot understand why the Sox would tinker with Porcello. He fit their supposed offseason plan to a T.

 

Doesn't make much sense, but now they want him to return back to his sinkerball approach.

[Kimmi]

Or more likely he will go back to being the career 4.40 ERA pitcher that he has been over more than 1,100 innings.

 

Why, exactly, is that more likely? Just because those are his career numbers?

 

Do pitchers never improve over the course of their careers?

[Bellhorn04]

Or more likely he will go back to being the career 4.40 ERA pitcher that he has been over more than 1,100 innings.

 

700, I think you need to give some consideration to how many of those innings were accumulated at an age when most pitchers are in the minors.

[Kimmi]

700, I think you need to give some consideration to how many of those innings were accumulated at an age when most pitchers are in the minors.

 

Looking at Porcello's career numbers and saying that he will pitch to those career numbers based on there being there being a sufficiently large sample is akin to expecting Papi or Napoli to perform at career levels with no regard to the aging curve.

 

You can't project a player's performance based on career stats alone.

[iortiz]

Looking at Porcello's career numbers and saying that he will pitch to those career numbers based on there being there being a sufficiently large sample is akin to expecting Papi or Napoli to perform at career levels with no regard to the aging curve.

 

You can't project a player's performance based on career stats alone.

And you still projecting those numbers based on one year only.

 

Thus far, 4.4 is closer to 5+ than your 3.5 drum.

[Jasonbay44]

But neither happened. He has been a pig in LF and has, overall, fallen short of reasonable expectations at the Plate.

 

He has made little effort since ST to become a better left fielder, that is established fact.

 

Yeah, with most players making that transition, it would be reasonable to assume that the adjustment would be made and the player would maintain his value.

 

That has not happened with Hanley.

 

Many are not surprised.

This.

 

If it wasn't a different player moving into the OF, sure. But Hanley has never had a reputation of a guy who works hard defensively and he's seemed pretty lazy. I was happy the Sox signed him, until I found out he was going to be in the outfield, which has been a complete disaster and I can't say I'm surprised. I love Hanley's bat and want him on the team, but I don't want him in the outfield being a moron and costing the Sox runs, which he has done a lot of this year.

[a700hitter]

Why, exactly, is that more likely? Just because those are his career numbers?

 

Do pitchers never improve over the course of their careers?

 

I can't think of many examples of pitchers who improved from a back of the rotation starter to a top of the rotation pitcher after almost 6 full seasons and 1,100 innings of being a back of the rotation pitcher. That is why.

[a700hitter]

Looking at Porcello's career numbers and saying that he will pitch to those career numbers based on there being there being a sufficiently large sample is akin to expecting Papi or Napoli to perform at career levels with no regard to the aging curve.

 

You can't project a player's performance based on career stats alone.

 

Agreed, but it is the best barometer that we have. Projecting Porcello as a top of the rotation guy was little more than hope. He had a good statistical season in 2014, but his stuff was the same.

[Palodios]

I can't think of many examples of pitchers who improved from a back of the rotation starter to a top of the rotation pitcher after almost 6 full seasons and 1,100 innings of being a back of the rotation pitcher. That is why.

 

There also aren't many example of pitchers who entered the majors at age 20, either.

 

Cliff Lee took several seasons to become an ace. Scherzer had one great season in the middle of a few mediocre seasons before emerging as a #1. Liriano took a long ass time to finally put up back-to-back good seasons together. John Lackey didn't emerge as the #2 horse until his 4th season in the majors, at age 27.

[iortiz]

There also aren't many example of pitchers who entered the majors at age 20, either.

 

Cliff Lee took several seasons to become an ace. Scherzer had one great season in the middle of a few mediocre seasons before emerging as a #1. Liriano took a long ass time to finally put up back-to-back good seasons together. John Lackey didn't emerge as the #2 horse until his 4th season in the majors, at age 27.

 

I wouldn't put Porcello in the same sentence with Scherzer o Lee, Pal.

 

Furthermore do you really see Porcello posting WARs above 5 like Lackey? Really?

 

His 30s are around the corner and he has only one "good" season.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't put Porcello in the same sentence with Scherzer o Lee, Pal.

 

Furthermore do you really see Porcello posting WARs above 5 like Lackey? Really?

 

His 30s are around the corner and he has only one "good" season.

 

His 30's are around the corner? C'mon. He's 26. The average MLB player breaks in at about 24 or so, I would guess.

[Palodios]

I wouldn't put Porcello in the same sentence with Scherzer o Lee, Pal.

 

I'm not saying Porcello is as good as those pitchers, just pointing out pitchers that peaked later in their careers.

 

Porcello's first excellent season was in 2014, at the age of 25. Those other guys didn't put it all together until age 30, age 28, age 29.

 

The Red Sox organization screwed with Porcello's approach, and it hurt his development. I'm fine with him going back to the sinker and low strikeout numbers, with an ERA in the 3.80s and 3 WAR a year. He is working on it, but it hasn't been easy for him to do mid-season.

[iortiz]

His 30's are around the corner? C'mon. He's 26. The average MLB player breaks in at about 24 or so, I would guess.

 

This year he is done. By these days, next year he will be 27 and a half, right?. So.. To me his 30s are around the corner and he has not showed nothing to call him good pitcher.

[iortiz]

I'm not saying Porcello is as good as those pitchers, just pointing out pitchers that peaked later in their careers.

 

Porcello's first excellent season was in 2014, at the age of 25. Those other guys didn't put it all together until age 30, age 28, age 29.

 

The Red Sox organization screwed with Porcello's approach, and it hurt his development. I'm fine with him going back to the sinker and low strikeout numbers, with an ERA in the 3.80s and 3 WAR a year. He is working on it, but it hasn't been easy for him to do mid-season.

I think that youth has nothing to do with him since he doesn't have the stuff of the pitchers you just named.

 

He is not Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, DeGromm, etc.... young top talent with stuff, either.

 

Also I haven't heard or read, that this organization changed his approach/development. It's pure speculation to me, unless you have a back up for this.

 

As I said, while I think that Ben and Farrell have to go, I do not think they are that stupid. If you sign a 80 M arm, the least you can do is to let him perform as he used to. If that approach changed, it is probably because his first 4 starts were going very slow, but once again it is my opinion.

Edited June 22, 2015 by iortiz

[Palodios]

I think that youth has nothing to do with him since he doesn't have the stuff of the pitchers you just named.

 

You're completely missing the point.

[iortiz]

You're completely missing the point.

 

You said that those pitchers peaked later in his careers. I got it.

 

what I'm saying is that those pitchers you named had pretty good stuff to believe in that improve at their late 20s.

 

Do you really think that he will improve from 5+ to 3.8 just because he is going to use more his sinker?

 

If that were that easy, he could have improved so many weeks ago, don't you think?

[a700hitter]

This year he is done. By these days, next year he will be 27 and a half, right?. So.. To me his 30s are around the corner and he has not showed nothing to call him good pitcher.

 

There is not a shred of evidence that they meddled with his approach. His k ratio in 2013 was almost identical to this season. It improved from 5.5 to 7 and along with that increase, he lowered his WHIP and ERA significantly. He dropped down to a 5.7 k rate last season and is back up to 7 thus season, but this time it didn't come along with an improvement in his other numbers.

 

The meddling argument is a baseless rationalization to avoid the fact that he just isn't very good. That is why we got him for Cespedes. Top of the rotation pitchers don't get traded for the likes of Cespedes.

Edited June 22, 2015 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't put Porcello in the same sentence with Scherzer o Lee, Pal.

 

Furthermore do you really see Porcello posting WARs above 5 like Lackey? Really?

 

His 30s are around the corner and he has only one "good" season.

 

Scherzer has pitched fewer innings than Porcello.